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This article was written at the request of the Secretary of Defense Task Force on DoD Nuclear Weapons Management. While this analysis suggests that certain types of terrorists can be deterred from certain types of attacks, it is less optimistic about the use of nuclear weapons in a terrorist deterrent strategy. A broad approach to deterrence may be effective against certain types of terrorist groups and attacks, making it crucially important to disaggregate the terrorist threat when setting policy. The article goes on to address two types of terrorist groups with a “global reach” that pose a serious threat to the United States: non-state actors driven by doctrines permitting catastrophic attacks and state-sponsored groups capable of carrying out catastrophic attacks. The analysis reveals a number of previously unappreciated tradeoffs and paradoxes associated with the deterrence of terrorists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an explanation for how the PKK, Kurdish Hezbollah, and ISIS, representing distinct ethno-nationalist, Islamist and ideologically motivated political movements, radicalize and recruit supporters in the regions of Eastern and Southeastern Turkey. In doing so, this paper contributes to ongoing theoretical debates about radicalization and recruitment. This study reveals how various regionally specific structural factors encourage radicalization and recruitment into violent politico-ideological movements. In particular, state oppression of ethnic minorities, economic inequalities, geography, and local demographics. While existing literature on radicalization focuses on push factors (structural) combined with pull factors (ideology), this research demonstrates that structural factors in Eastern and Southeastern Turkey are both push and pull factors in processes of radicalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper will examine how extremist organizations manage to present themselves as credible actors in the eyes of potential supporters on social media. This paper will address this question by exploring the role of authenticity in strategic narratives, which is believed to help these groups achieve this purpose. Apart from introducing this new theoretical concept, the paper will also apply it to a new case study of the Russian Imperial Movement (RIM) – the first far-right organization to be designated as terrorist by the U.S. and Canada. By conducting discourse analysis of the group's social media propaganda on the Russian network VKontakte, the paper will show how the RIM makes its strategic narratives authentic and, as a consequence, creates an image of a credible and trustworthy actor and thus manages to reach out to its target audience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Terrorism research has gained much traction since the 9/11 attacks, but some sub genres of terrorism, such as right-wing terrorism, have remained under-studied areas. Unsurprisingly data sources to study these phenomena are scarce and frequently face unique data collection obstacles. This paper explores five major, social-scientific terrorism databases in regards to data on right-wing terrorist events. The paper also provides an in-depth examination of the utilization of criminal legal proceedings to research right-wing terrorist acts. Lastly, legal case databases are introduced and discussed to show the lack of available court information and case proceedings in regards to right-wing terrorism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractWhat is the role played by Garrison States – actors in which domestic and external decision-making is subjected mainly to security considerations – in global politics? A wide array of literature has attributed the notion of Garrison states to a myriad of state actors. However, a robust empirical account remains vague and ill-defined. This paper lays the foundations for measuring Garrison states, introducing an index mapping their development over time, focusing on the period between 1990–2020. Based on an empirically informed discussion, the paper explores the case of the most highly Garrison state in this index – Israel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The application of specific, business organizational models to understand terrorism remains absent in the literature. This article argues business models can apply to understanding terrorist organizational behavior. Two traditional organizational models are integrated with two terrorist organizations to examine their leadership and management. These two business models successfully demonstrate which elements of terrorist group organization potentially lead to their failure, specifically a lack of concern for administrative functions. This paper more broadly suggests specific models within business organizational theory offer an insight into future growth or decline of a terrorist organization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Islamic State (IS) was founded on the premise of a "new ideological" offer based on extreme takfir as an alternative to Al-Qaeda ideology i.e. Salafism-Jihadism. More specifically and ideologically speaking, IS ideology rested on the alliance between three schools of thought: the Neo-Takfiri, the Bin Ali, and the Hazimiyah. However, instead of coalescing into a single coherent thought, those three schools confronted each other in a violent internal strife that caused the death of hundreds of its members including key leaders, endangering the very existence of this organization. This paper shows that instead of opting for a clear ideological line, the IS leadership of neo-takfiri orientation, alternated its support for each of these, between the Bin Ali and the Hazimiyah, resorting each time to severe internal purges. Using interviews with former foreign fighters jihadists in addition to other relevant material1, this paper analyses the origins and ideological foundations of these three schools and seeks to explain the patterns of conflict as well as the perspectives for a possible reconciliation between them in the wake of the death of Al Baghdadi. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pakistani state signed a number of peace agreements with the Taliban between 2004 and 2015. Despite their significance, hardly any academic evaluations of these agreements exist. This paper assesses these peace deals from three perspectives: political settlements, culture and conflict resolution and cosmopolitan protection. We argue that they failed due to the following reasons: the Pakistani state was more concerned with the interests of the central government in Islamabad than those in the tribal borderlands; the agreements clashed with the unique tribal cultural code of Pashtunwali; and they represented a solution imposed on the tribal societies from the outside. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical data have indicated that radical Islamists often interpret their everyday life as embedded in religion. Nonetheless, the research field has at times tended to downplay the religious dimensions of radicalization processes. This paper aims to reinstate religion in analyses of radicalization by introducing the theoretical approach of everyday religion. By utilizing this approach, the paper argues that when religion, in the minds of radical Islamists themselves, has an effect on everyday lives and practices, then religion plays a substantial role in their radicalization process. The potential of the approach is illustrated through an analysis of interviews with former converts to radical Islamism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the subject of jihad in the Qur'an and the Prophet's conduct, and seeks to answer the following questions. What is the primary principle in the Islamic state's international relations with non-Muslim states? Is war or peace the primary principle in the relationship of the Islamic state with non-Muslim states? What is the nature of Islamic jihad? The primacy of war means that the cause of war and jihad with infidels and pagan states lies in their people's disbelief. The primacy of peace means that war is an exceptional situation, and whenever it occurs, it is not because of disbelief, but because of the aggression or hostility that has been shown by those states. This paper defends a pacific interpretation of jihad using an intra-textual interpretive method according to which the general verses of jihad should be understood based on the conditional verses, as opposed to claiming that the verses of peace have been abrogated by the verses of jihad. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foreign fighters can be both an asset and a liability for the groups to which they are recruited. While they can bring with them much sought after skills and resources, they can also create tensions between foreign fighter contingents and local membership. This paper considers Al-Shabaab's relationship with foreign fighters from the group's foundational years in the 1990s through to the infamous purge of 2011–2013. By examining Al-Shabaab's history and narratives around foreign-ness and foreign fighters, this paper finds that foreign fighters have persistently influenced Al-Shabaab's organizational cohesion and structural integrity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Everything that comes in, eventually goes out. One way or another. This paper will look into eating and defecating practices among rebels in Colombia, in particular, the FARC-EP. I will argue that these practices, despite being daily occurrences, have been overlooked in conflict studies. I will argue that eating practices in particular reinforced emotional bonds within the organization and fostered micro-solidarity. At the same time, eating and defecating practices reflected and reinforced, at once, organizational practices and ideological commitments of the rebels – particularly gender equality and collectivism. This paper, by focusing on cherished everyday activities which are deeply human, both biological and social, is a call to re-humanise this field of study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many governments maintain lists of terrorist groups, imposing sanctions on designated organizations. However, the logic behind designation remains unclear. Furthermore, most studies focus on Western countries. This paper develops arguments for why attack attributes, group attributes, and policy diffusion might explain proscription. Empirically, we examine hundreds of militant organizations to see which are listed by the European Union, India, Pakistan, Russia, the United Kingdom, or the United States. Generally, designation does not seem to be driven by target or attack severity. It often results from diffusion: most countries follow the United States. Islamist group motivation is also an important factor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractWhile the concepts of containment and degrading are distinct in their tactical implications, both have been integral to U.S Africa Command’s (AFRICOM) operational approach since its inception in 2007. This paper aims to elucidate this strategic transformation over the period of 2018 to 2023, employing an evaluative framework that incorporates threat assessment, strategic intent, and a cost-benefit analysis. By scrutinizing AFRICOM’s Situation Reports, this study establishes a correlation between the Flintlock military exercises in West Africa and the establishment of the Danab Special Commando Brigade in Somalia with the overarching containment and degrading strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the past decade a series of events including the outbreak of the Syrian war, drought and tireless insurgencies in sub-Saharan Africa triggered the largest wave of displacement ever seen through and around the Mediterranean. The majority of those bound to Europe through the Mediterranean are smuggled by criminal networks. The proliferation of Trafficking and Smuggling of Human Beings (TSHB) between the Sahel and the Libyan shores feeds into the evolving threats of terrorism, crime and insecurity in the Sahel, West Africa and Europe. This paper explores the involvement of armed groups in TSHB in the Central Sahel and Libya. The author argues that the involvement of armed actors in the TSHB in the Central Sahel and Libya is not uniform and not systematically used for terrorism financing. Criminal networks and armed groups leverage opportunities created by conflict to generate profit and project power. They operate in convergent spaces benefitting from state fragility, and shared social networks. The link between terrorism and migrant smuggling and trafficking, if found, remains localized benefitting individuals rather than organizations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The transformation of the Gamaa Islamiya can be understood by analyzing it against Argyris and Schön's double-loop learning model. This paper bases the analysis on five books published by the Gamaa Islamiya, which include comprehensive elaborations on internal reflections and criticism of Al-Qaeda. While the Gamaa Islamiya's learning can be framed with the model of double-loop learning, Al-Qaeda's reactions can be depicted as a less evolved single-loop learning system. This case is relevant for the discovery of key mechanisms of de-radicalization that could be used as a blueprint for other groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This paper is based on an experiment-based study carried out in the first half of 2023, which aimed to understand how terrorist organizations can potentially exploit artificial intelligence. It discusses the risks of using AI to produce and disseminate propaganda, as well as verifies whether it can be used to facilitate access to terrorist content. It also explores if AI-based platforms can be used to access terrorism-related know-how. This paper also focuses on understanding the specificity of content moderation procedures introduced by these services to mitigate their use by violent extremists and provides recommendations for increasing their efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research note looks at the radical influencers of Bosnian foreign fighters. This group is important, as the Balkan region has been seen as a spot of jihadist activism and recruitment for the IS and Al-Nusra Front. Previous research on foreign fighters emphasized that a small number of individuals (religious leaders, former combatants, and others) at the local level play a significant role in this recruitment. The influence of such figures results in hotspots of radical activism, which are called "power centers" here. This research note argues that such dynamics are likely to be even more evident in postwar societies due to state weaknesses, which create more power for social actors and inhibit counterterrorism. The paper also analyses the role of leader-led radical "institutions" that have appeared after the Bosnian War. By doing so, it stresses the significance of local radical influencers in the recruitment of Bosnian foreign fighters. The research note shows that radical influencers in postwar radical milieus manage to "institutionalize" their authority by filling the void left by domestic war(s) with life guidance and religious values. The paper provides insights into the social relations, authority and decision-making connected with foreign fighter departures to Syria and Iraq (2012-2016). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Debates over the relationship between natural resources and armed conflicts have flourished in the past two decades, but few studies have considered the case of oil and the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. This paper reviews key scholarly arguments concerning the relationship between natural resources and armed groups, and examines the interrelationship between oil, armed conflict and ISIS. Building on this analysis, the paper offers insights into dilemmas of oil dependence for non-state armed groups controlling proto-states: specifically, while oil enabled ISIS to consolidate its attempts at establishing a de facto state, it also created vulnerabilities. Among these, U.S.-led forces deliberately targeted oil to deny ISIS' attempts to achieve statehood, and to politically confine its status to that of a terrorist organization ruling over an oil rich and dangerous proto-state targeted for military and political eradication. These findings point to the value of nuanced analyses of relations between resource wars arguments and terrorism studies, as well as the need to more broadly consider the various political dimensions of natural resources in the study of armed conflicts and campaigns against terrorist organizations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the under-studied area of innovation and terrorism. Beyond exploring the debate on the difference between creativity and innovation and how it impacts terrorist groups, the paper also reviews the typology of terrorist innovation and of the law of unintended consequences. The presence of terrorist groups in the online gaming world is an example of creativity and innovation as the groups recognize that counterterrorist policies have limited their ability to communicate with potential recruits. Consequently, extremists have had to find new avenues to communicate with supporters and attract potential recruits as they are determined to survive. Security agencies must also ensure that they are also thinking 'outside the box' as only through creativity can they stay one-step ahead of their adversaries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Terrorist organizations increasingly resort to the Internet to promote terrorism, recruit new terrorists, plan and finance their operations. The paper first proposes a definition of terrorism, cyberterrorism, and online terrorism preparatory acts. It then analyses whether current binding international instruments on terrorism, organized crime or cybercrime could prohibit cyber activities precursor of terrorism. The paper concludes that there is no gap in international law that leaves online terrorism related acts completely unregulated. It nevertheless recommends the drafting of an international treaty that would respond more comprehensively, precisely and thus efficiently to the use of the Internet for terrorist purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amid increasing terrorist violence in and beyond European countries, concerns have been raised about connections between illegal migration and terrorism. Regional armed conflicts in the Middle East have led to the massive migration of people in search of safe heavens and better livelihoods, pressing upon frontline countries in the Mediterranean and throughout the EU. Multiple government and intelligence agencies report that human smuggling networks have been identified as providing a readily available conduit through which terrorist groups such as the Islamic State and Al-Qaida can enter Europe and the U.S. These criminal travel networks are said to rely on highly effective transnational alliances involving service providers within source, transit and destination countries. There is also widespread consensus in the intelligence circles that terrorist groups rely on the practice of smuggling for financing of terrorist activity. Nonetheless, despite the region's geopolitical significance and its demonstrated potential for spillover effects, scant systematic field research has been conducted by independent researchers to understand the purported nexus between terrorism and human smugglers within the Middle East into the Mediterranean. This constitutes a severe gap in knowledge which our study will address. In this paper, we debunk the nexus human smuggling-terrorism by comparing the Islamic State's logistics with human smuggling networks' modus operandi and organizational structures. Based on a mixed research approach that combines the analysis of a unique date-set (U.S. Special Forces) and an empirical research carried out among smugglers and migrants in the Middle East and across the Eastern Mediterranean route over the past two years, this paper will tackle the alleged connection between human smuggling and terrorist groups. What will be argued is that smuggling networks and terrorist networks have fundamental operational and structural differences. These operational and structural differences need to be taken into account in order to deconstruct harmful stereotypes on irregular migration and, consequently, develop adequate responses to analytically distinct phenomena. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Is there a link between levels of terrorism and the presence of organized crime groups? Which factors does terrorism affect that could impact the presence and expansion of organized crime groups? This study aims to empirically analyze this link. Dealing with potential endogeneity bias using matching methods, we provide quantitative evidence showing that terrorist attacks increase the future levels of organized crime group activities. Using Structural Equation Modeling techniques (SEM), we also show that the main mechanisms through which this relation seems to occur are through the effects of terrorism on state capacity and state legitimacy. Thus, organized crime groups seem to take advantage of the turbulent situation created by terrorist attacks in order to expand their activities. The findings provided in this paper aim to increase our knowledge on the so-called crime-terror nexus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractOur paper argues that Agent Based Modelling (ABM) can play an important role in evaluating interventions for counter radicalization and recruitment. Its advantages are due to three realities of research and practice in this area of study. First, field research on radicalization and recruitment raises significant ethical and human subjects dilemmas beyond traditional criminological and social research that are not present to the same degree in ABM experiments. Second, given the lack of existing studies and especially existing evaluation studies, ABMs provide a mechanism for identifying which programs or practices should be focused upon in field experiments, thus allowing researchers to focus in on interventions which have most promise of success. Third, ABM allows researchers to examine very large populations of individuals, which can solve the base rate problem for evaluating interventions focused on rare events, for example on recruitment to terrorism or terrorist attacks. We illustrate these advantages of ABM studies for assessing programs and policies in the context of an ABM model developed in Proton (an Horizon 2020 project). We focus in particular on how ABMs can be developed in ways that provide valid outcome results. In this context, we emphasize the importance of a strong theoretical foundation for ABM studies, creating a realistic landscape with actual data, and testing the ABM model for its fit to outcomes in the real world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractClassroom-based surveys are a proven method for studying adolescents since it is relatively easy and cost-effective to obtain a large number of participants from various backgrounds. They are also beneficial for research on youth radicalization and extremism. For example, they allow us to acquire information such as the percentage of students that hold extremist attitudes, factors that correlate positively or negatively with extremism, or how the process of radicalization develops over the course of adolescence. However, classroom-administered survey studies are not without challenges. In this paper, we describe various challenges we have encountered when using classroom-based surveys on extremism and radicalization in our research. We also present advice, including determining what sample design is appropriate, depending on the research question, when to employ a cross-sectional or a longitudinal design, how to measure general or ideology-specific youth extremism, how to achieve a sufficiently large sample size for quantitative analysis, and how to adapt the survey administration process when doing research on radicalization and extremism in a classroom environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractIn recent years, the study of terrorism and violent extremism has increasingly benefited from the use of register data such as population data and judicial data. The use of this type of data brings with it many advantages, such as the ability to study complete populations, to combine different sources of data, and, often, it enables researchers to take on a longitudinal and comparative approach. However, the use of register data also brings with it some significant challenges, in terms of acquiring the data (practical challenges) and in terms of biases in the data (content/ethical challenges). In this paper we discuss the usage of register data in terrorism research, with a focus on the Dutch and Swedish context. Whereas both countries are to some extent similar in that they both have a rich data-infrastructure, differences also exist regarding the type of data, agencies responsible for collecting and distributing the data, and ethical approaches. In the chapter, we will go into the strengths and weaknesses of using register data in research on terrorism and violent extremism. Moreover, we will elaborate on how the use of register data can be improved, what type of research questions can and cannot be answered based on register data, and on potential opportunities of integrating register data into mixed-methods designs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractCompared to studying other forms of illegal violence, terrorism research faces unique data challenges. Notably, consistent police data are generally lacking, victims often have no direct knowledge of attacks and are sometimes killed, and perpetrators are difficult to interview and are often unreliable sources. In the face of these data challenges, the increasing availability of open source data on terrorist attacks and perpetrators has profoundly affected the scientific study of terrorism. Over time, a growing proportion of published academic research on terrorism—especially more heavily quantitative studies—relies on open source data. Moreover, the growing availability of individual-level terrorism data has allowed empirical tests of psychological and social-psychological theories of radicalization. In this paper, we assess the impact of open source data on the study of terrorism. We begin with an overview, providing a brief history of terrorist attack and perpetrator open source data bases. We then consider the major strengths and weaknesses of both types of open source data and suggest ways of countering the weaknesses. We close with observations about the impact of open source data on terrorism research and future opportunities for improvement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractThis paper explores the challenges and complexities navigated and negotiated in public facing counter-terrorism strategic communication campaigns. Informed by frame analysis of campaign assets, practitioner interviews and public focus groups, the discussion pivots around three high-profile UK public messaging campaigns. Building from Goffman’s theory of “normal appearances” and the established concept of a “frame trap”, the analysis identifies two further shaping tensions. A “fear trap” occurs when counter-terrorism messages seek to “outbid” other risks in order to capture public attention, thereby unintentionally creating the negative emotional reactions sought through acts of terrorism, or overly-reassuring messages that induce public disengagement. In contrast, a “fame trap” results from creating “too much” public awareness of terrorism, by using commercial marketing logics. In practice, frame, fame and fear traps overlap and interact across different contexts, and the analysis uses the concept of a dialectic of anomaly and normality to highlight implications for future scholarship and practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractStarting in 2015, the terrorist organization known as the “Islamic State” (IS) experienced a gradual decline in territorial control within Syria and Iraq due to military success on the part of various armies and militias, and it was finally defeated as a political entity in February 2019. As predicted by terrorism experts and announced by the leaders of IS, the gradual fall of the IS led to an increase in terrorist attacks in Europe and the US. To combat these threats, governments and their security services are relying increasingly on big data-based mass surveillance. This paper is concerned with the structure and effectiveness of big data surveillance and strategies in countering Islamist violence. We develop a Bayesian analysis of the effectiveness and performativity of big data-based surveillance and counterterrorism methods, where performativity describes the fact that sometimes the very measures used to prevent terror can themselves contribute to the creation of Islamist violence. Furthermore, we evaluate the ethical dimensions of big data surveillance under the assumption of performativity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concept of the revisionist state has been central to IR, and the literature demonstrates that they initiate international conflicts. As a subset of the revisionist state, revolutionary states in particular have been shown to foment international conflicts. Moreover, ideology has come to explain international conflicts, especially the Second World War, Cold War, and "War on Terror." Nevertheless, the literature on revolutionary states discounts the role of ideology and that on ideology often discounts the role of revisionist or revolutionary states. This paper develops the concept of a distinct type of revisionist state—the revolutionary actor—that explains the outbreak of the Second World War, the Cold War, and War on Terror, three of the greatest global conflicts of the last century. It first develops a model of the revolutionary actor, linking the ideologies of Marxism-Leninism, Nazism, and jihadism that led to the Second World War, the Cold War, and War on Terror. It then offers a theory based on ideology as to why the revolutionary actors initiated these three global conflicts. Lastly, it offers a research design to test the theory and highlights the three cases with recent literature on them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Previous studies found that informal leadership emerges in leaderless resistance movements. However, its boundaries – i.e. the conditions in which leaders can be successful – remain obscure. This paper develops a theoretical framework to then apply it to the Informal Anarchist Federation. The findings suggest that leaders are more likely to succeed when conforming to the movement’s core values. Moreover, informal leadership is context-dependent, temporary, and spontaneous, but also ubiquitous since any militant can be a leader and followers play a crucial role in co-creating the enactment of leadership. The paper argues that understanding the leadership’s boundaries is crucial for counterterrorism purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Technical approaches for surfacing, reviewing, and removing terrorist and violent extremist content online have evolved in recent years. Larger companies have added metrics and insights in transparency reports, disclosing that most content removed for terrorist and violent extremist offences is proactive, using hybrid models deploying tooling in combination with human oversight. However, less is known about the algorithmic tools or hybrid models deployed by tech platforms to ensure greater accuracy in surfacing terrorist threats. This paper reviews existing tools deployed by platforms to counter terrorism and violent extremism online, including ethical concerns and oversight needed for algorithmic deployment, before analysing initial results from a GIFCT technical trial. The Global Internet Forum to Counter Terrorism (GIFCT) Technical Trial discussed in this paper presents the results from testing a methodology using behavioural and linguistic signals to more accurately and proactively surface terrorist and violent extremist content relating to potential real-world attacks. As governments, tech companies, and networks like GIFCT develop crisis and incident response protocols, the ability to quickly identify perpetrator content associated with attacks is crucial, whether that relates to the live streaming of an attack, or an attacker manifesto launched in parallel to the real-world violence. Building on previous academic research, while the deployment of layered signals shows promise in proactive detection and the reduction of false/positives, it also highlights the complexities of user speech, online behaviours, and cultural nuances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the funding sources of the terrorist group Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen. Using existing research and original interviews, this study outlines al-Shabaab's history and funding sources. It theorizes that an organization's capacity to operate in different fields of economic activity drives innovation in funding. Applying a framework for terrorist innovation to al-Shabaab's funding sources, this study finds support for the theory. Development of intelligence and taxation capabilities is especially prevalent in the al-Shabaab context. Holding territory considerably increases organizational ability to raise funds. Increasing reliance on criminality may compromise an organization's ideological character and leave it more vulnerable to inter-group competition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper argues that eudaemonic legitimation is a useful tool in understanding how insurgencies seek to justify their "effectiveness" and "performance" vis-à-vis the state in order to enhance authority and mobilise support for their strategic objectives. By examining primary FARC documents, conference and plenary findings, and select interviews with former and active FARC, ELN and M-19 members, it demonstrates how FARC constructed social contracts and integrated illicit financing into its operations as a strategy to appeal to its eudaemonic legitimation in its areas of proto-state influence, in turn aiming to mobilise support and consolidate a full-spectrum normative system. "Effectiveness" in FARC's strategic approach through rule-setting allowed the organisation to expand to control significant portions of Colombian territory, which to a degree impacted positively on social mobilisation and challenged the government's legitimacy by consolidating power structures in areas where there was a lack of government authority. FARC further appealed to social and economic "performance" by using revenue from its fundraising activities through engagement in the coca trade and kidnap for ransom to not only strengthen its military capacity, but also implement social initiatives and provide material goods. In turn, FARC was able to develop zones of security through the creation of social contracts in which stable economic practices were able to solidify, contributing in its effectiveness in providing proto-state authority and allowing for insurgent expansion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite great interest in the importance of "narrative" to the global jihadi movement, research on actual examples of jihadi storytelling has been very limited to date. In this paper, I discuss the phenomenon of jihadi storytelling, specifically in digital contexts, focusing on the case study of one storyteller in particular: "Najm al-Din Azad", a Saudi jihadist who tweeted and blogged a collection of "Tales of the Heroism of the Mujahidin" while participating in the Syrian civil war. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores how obstacles to disengagement and push and pull factors combine to produce pathways out of extremism. Using Qualitative Comparative Analysis and a sample of 50 far-right extremists in the United States, including 25 who disengaged and 25 who did not, we show how certain exit barriers, like the presence of extremist family members, poor social mobility, and past criminal convictions, determine which push and pull factors are capable of assisting individuals in leaving extremism. We conclude with how these findings can be used to support intervention and reintegration programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current paper analyzes the recent wave of violence in the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, and especially the occurrences on the Gazan border since March 2018, from a less covered point of view – the battle over the image and narrative. The Palestinians' main tools of resistance during this wave of violence have been civilian protests near the fence and the launching of explosive kites and balloons across the border – causing massive damage to Israeli agriculture. We argue that the Palestinians had waged a sophisticated Image War on the border of Gaza, and while they are performing, the world is watching. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractThis paper investigates the susceptibility of the Romani minority in the Balkans to radicalization, focusing on the Salafi community in a Serbian city. It provides insights into the experiences of a marginalized group that is often overlooked in research on radicalization. Despite the community’s commitment to nonviolence, stigmatization and exclusion incentivize individuals to seek alternative forms of belonging. However, adopting Salafism at the cost of abandoning their culture can increase their vulnerability to radicalization. We present a preliminary model of the marginalized identity transformation to illustrate this identity shift. The article uses ethnography and narrative analysis to investigate the phenomenon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This paper aims to identify the causes, dynamics, and characteristics of the Iraqi Shia militia’s funding method for political and military operations. The Iraqi post-2003 institutional features of political participation and the economic system created an atmosphere where the clergy’s political position was highly esteemed. The legitimacy of one sect over another, discriminatory practices, and active participation in the repression of one sect can be seen as another chance for the state cultivates a struggle for rigid resources. The paper’s central theme is to determine how the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) get financialized for their activity and identify/examine how these PMF can collect money. First, we start with a historical review of the Iraqi state formation/building post-2003, then look at the Iraqi state and assess its form and condition post-2003. In the second part, we identify the reasons behind the rising of ISIS and PMF. The third part, the most significant part of the paper, includes categorizing and classifying Iraqi Shia armed groups’ complex, multilayer, and intertwined financial sources. Finally, each of these financial sources will be discussed and examined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The U.K. policy of "Prevent" aims to stop people becoming involved in, or supporting, terrorism. In common with many CVE policies worldwide, Prevent has remained controversial in its conception, delivery, and impact. A formal review is now underway, so it is opportune to ask, "Whither Prevent?" This paper will examine briefly the justifications for Prevent, but the main thesis is that the juridification of Prevent is a beneficial trend in the U.K. Juridification is depicted as: the legislative production of ever more extensive and elaborate instruments; the expansion of judicial oversight; and the administrative (bureaucratic) application of soft law standards. Juridification is here invoked in order to enhance the legitimacy of the policy of Prevent through explicit improvements in its modes of operation and through offering modes of challenge where the principles of constitutionalism are contravened. If Prevent can be improved in these ways, then its application can be refined to address more effectively and efficiently the threat of terrorist attacks, especially given that the originators or observers of these threats are invited under the Prevent policy to cooperate by consent in the enterprise of counter terrorism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In narratives around insurgencies, terrorism, and other forms of political violence, the media—and policymakers—frequently portray women as victims or unintelligent pawns of men. But these violent women get more media attention than their male counterparts because they are a shocking departure from gendered expectations of nurturing, peaceful women. However, even such narratives of deviance can reinforce societal stereotypes about women by emphasizing that they are emotional but not political, easily manipulated, often deranged, or simply unintelligent. Using in-depth interviews in Ireland and the United Kingdom with practitioners in counter terrorism (CT) and countering violent extremism (CVE), this paper argues that a failure to ask meaningful questions about women's roles in extremist violence has reinforced gender stereotypes, leading to disengagement and deradicalization practices that ignore or downplay women's importance in fostering violence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Guided by previous research and recent empirical analyses, this paper gives insight into elements that characterize the spatial decision making of terrorist target selection. Five key factors explain why targets are chosen by terrorists. The authors propose that, generally, targets will be selected when they are Tolerable, Relevant, Accessible, Close and/or Known. This is followed by a discussion of attacks witnessed between January 2013 and December 2018 in the United Kingdom, and implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article contributes to answering the fundamental research question, "Why do individuals participate in contentious ethnonationalist movements?" More specifically, it tries to ascertain which competing theory of human behavior—rational-chooser, socially-embedded actor, or instinctive psychological being—best explains this phenomenon. Based on over a dozen in-depth interviews with Sikh ethnonationalists from Punjab-India, this paper finds that social constructivism, and to a much lesser extent, the sociopsychological paradigm best explain why individuals join collective ethnonationalist movements. In contrast, the rational-choice theory finds only very limited support. Even when sociopsychological and rational-choice motivations are found for individual participation in risky ethnonationalist movements, they exist either intertwined or in close conjunction with social constructivist ones, thus giving even increased support for this dominant theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper attempts to fill the gap in research and contribute to the academic debate on the online magazines of Daesh. Its primary objective is to identify and understand propaganda devices, which were exploited by the editors of "Dabiq" to influence its readers. In order to do this, the study utilized a classic framework of propaganda devices elaborated by the American Institute for Propaganda Analysis, which consists of seven methods: name-calling, glittering generalities, transfer, testimonial, card-stacking, plain folks, and bandwagon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research argues that an imagined artifact, the IS coins, serves as a transhistorical artifact, condensing the larger ideology of the violent extremist organization of legitimacy and sovereignty. This paper conducts a qualitative content analysis on all references to IS Coin within Dabiq, al-Naba, Rumiyah and all the official videos publicized in the above magazines from April 2014 to September 2018. The power of one artifact, in this case, coin, embodies the whole ideology of ISIS and transports the ideology from the past to the present to the future and the artifact belongs to daily life, amplifies its power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This paper depicts how ideological indoctrination is constructed within the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) textbooks as a framing process of religious concepts and values. By adopting a frame analysis perspective, we try to understand how ISIS textbooks assign meaning to traditional concepts in Islam – belief in the oneness of God, obedience to God, rejection of polytheism, allegiance, and disavowal, among others. Even though existing research has led to significant insights into ISIS propaganda, media, and strategic communication, it still falls short of addressing its ideological indoctrination process in a detailed manner. This article fills a gap in the literature on ISIS educational propaganda and ideology. For our empirical case study, we analyzed a selection of ISIS primary-level textbooks produced in Iraq and Syria and published in Arabic. Ultimately, this paper demonstrates that ISIS has been attempting to redefine education by framing the textbooks’ content through the lens of its own ideology. Our study contributes to the growing number of studies that draw attention to the instrumentalization of educational material as a tool of ideological indoctrination targeting youth in conflict areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Guided by the general investigation of the "discursive assault" launched by Islamic State (IS) in the Middle East and beyond, this paper examines the resonance of IS' use of language in grassroots populations living in Jordan. Representing IS' communication campaign as a sender-message-receiver continuum, this research aims to give primary importance to the message and its audience. Frame theory is used as the general framework to understand the formation and reception of IS' discourse on the conflicts in Iraq and Syria. The analysis reveals that, while IS' rhetoric on the perceived "crisis of the Ummah" and its solution seems to resonate inside Jordan, the social practices this solution entails failed to convince. In that sense, if IS succeeded to echo the grievances and resentment of its audiences in Jordan, the group was unable to attract generalized support for its caliphate. Nonetheless, this apparent rejection of IS' project must be nuanced at the regional and state levels. After years of war in Iraq and Syria, the conditions that initially gave rise to IS remain. So, do the dynamics that nurtured the popular grievances against perceived illegitimate rulers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims at building from existing sociological, economic, political and strategic knowledge an analysis that anticipates the emergence of the Mafia. By employing Mill's method of agreement, the research finds that it is very probable that the aftermath of the Syrian War yields fertile terrain for the emergence of the Mafia. The reasons of this are fourfold: (1) as the black market expands in Syria and the rights of private property become blurred once 'peace' is restored, (2) the postwar Syrian State will be either unwilling and unable to protect the property rights of its population, (3) this situation would result in a widespread institutional distrust that will provoke the population to seek alternative forms of private protection; (4) an abundant supply of insurgents and terrorists trained in violence will meet the emergent demand. This conclusion sheds light on the importance for policymakers to take prompt action to change the probable course of history of Syria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The netwar concept first fielded in the journal article, "Cyberwar Is Coming", provided a full exposition in the Rand report, "The Advent of Netwar," and advanced some new insights in the concluding chapter of the book. Recent elaborations appear in multi-authored Rand volumes on "Countering the New Terrorism and "The Zapatista "Social Netwar," in Mexico. As these writings have spread, the netwar concept has struck a chord with a growing number of scholarly theorists, futurists, journalists and practitioners. In forward-looking books, scholars as diverse as Manuel Castells and Chris Hables Gray have turned to the concept for discussing trends at the mostly nonmilitary end of the conflict spectrum. For several years, a web site maintained by writer Jason Wehling carried a wide range of articles about netwar, social activism and information-age conflict, leading off with a paper he had written. Meanwhile, interesting flurries of discussion about netwar arose on e-mail lists related to the Zapatista movement in Mexico, where vast networks of human rights and other nongovernmental organizations swarmed to support the Zapatista National Liberation Army (EZLN) and used information compaigns to compel Mexico's government to halt combat operations against EZLN following its armed uprising in January 1994.

Abstract This paper re-frames the concept of causality in deradicalisation, disengagement and reintegration pathways. Analysis of the theories and frameworks in counter-terrorism research indicate that prevalent causal models offer reductive explanations of human behavior, revealing the absence of a scientifically credible account of how agents undergo transformation in pathways out of terrorism. To address the problem of causality, I borrow from the thought bank of complexity theory and reconceptualise causality as the operation of “constraints.” The paper then goes on to operationalize the concept of constraints for counter-terrorism researchers and practitioners, laying down a new and preliminary conceptual framework for thinking about how people leave terrorism behind. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]