1. Evaluating Performance of the Spetzler-Martin Supplemented Model in Selecting Patients With Brain Arteriovenous Malformation for Surgery
- Author
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Kim, Helen, Pourmohamad, Tony, Westbroek, Erick M, McCulloch, Charles E, Lawton, Michael T, and Young, William L
- Subjects
Biomedical and Clinical Sciences ,Oncology and Carcinogenesis ,Patient Safety ,Brain Disorders ,Adult ,Aged ,Central Nervous System Vascular Malformations ,Female ,Humans ,Logistic Models ,Male ,Microsurgery ,Middle Aged ,Models ,Statistical ,Neurosurgical Procedures ,Patient Selection ,Predictive Value of Tests ,ROC Curve ,Reproducibility of Results ,Risk Assessment ,Young Adult ,modified Rankin Scale ,net reclassification ,receiver operator curve ,cerebral arteriovenous malformations ,Cardiorespiratory Medicine and Haematology ,Clinical Sciences ,Neurosciences ,Neurology & Neurosurgery ,Clinical sciences ,Allied health and rehabilitation science - Abstract
Background and purposeOur recently proposed point scoring model includes the widely-used Spetzler-Martin (SM)-5 variables, along with age, unruptured presentation, and diffuse border (SM-Supp). Here we evaluate the SM-Supp model performance compared with SM-5, SM-3, and Toronto prediction models using net reclassification index, which quantifies the correct movement in risk reclassification, and validate the model in an independent data set.MethodsBad outcome was defined as worsening between preoperative and final postoperative modified Rankin Scale score. Point scores for each model were used as predictors in logistic regression and predictions evaluated using net reclassification index at varying thresholds (10%-30%) and any threshold (continuous net reclassification index >0). Performance was validated in an independent data set (n=117).ResultsNet gain in risk reclassification was better using the SM-Supp model over a range of threshold values (net reclassification index=9%-25%) and significantly improved overall predictions for outcomes in the development data set, yielding a continuous net reclassification index of 64% versus SM-5, 67% versus SM-3, and 61% versus Toronto (all P
- Published
- 2012