1. HERMES-24 Score Derivation and Validation for Simple and Robust Outcome Prediction After Large Vessel Occlusion Treatment.
- Author
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Tanaka K, Brown S, Goyal M, Menon BK, Campbell BCV, Mitchell PJ, Jovin TG, Saver JL, Muir KW, White PM, Bracard S, Guillemin F, Roos YBWEM, van Zwam WH, Najm M, Dowlatshahi D, Hill MD, and Demchuk AM
- Subjects
- Humans, Aged, Female, Male, Middle Aged, Treatment Outcome, Aged, 80 and over, Tissue Plasminogen Activator therapeutic use, Prognosis, Cohort Studies, Predictive Value of Tests, Stroke diagnostic imaging, Stroke therapy, Stroke surgery, Thrombectomy methods, Endovascular Procedures methods, Ischemic Stroke surgery, Ischemic Stroke therapy, Ischemic Stroke diagnostic imaging
- Abstract
Background: Clinicians need simple and highly predictive prognostic scores to assist practical decision-making. We aimed to develop a simple outcome prediction score applied 24 hours after anterior circulation acute ischemic stroke treatment with endovascular thrombectomy and validate it in patients treated both with and without endovascular thrombectomy., Methods: Using the HERMES (Highly Effective Reperfusion Evaluated in Multiple Endovascular Stroke Trials) collaboration data set (n=1764), patients in the endovascular thrombectomy arm were divided randomly into a derivation cohort (n=430) and a validation cohort (n=441). From a set of candidate predictors, logistic regression modeling using forward variable selection was used to select a model that was both parsimonious and highly predictive for modified Rankin Scale (mRS) ≤2 at 90 days. The score was validated in validation cohort, control arm (n=893), and external validation cohorts from the ESCAPE-NA1 (Efficacy and Safety of Nerinetide for the Treatment of Acute Ischaemic Stroke; n=1066) and INTERRSeCT (Identifying New Approaches to Optimize Thrombus Characterization for Predicting Early Recanalization and Reperfusion With IV Alteplase and Other Treatments Using Serial CT Angiography; n=614)., Results: In the derivation cohort, we selected 2 significant predictors of mRS ≤2 (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at 24 hours and age [β-coefficient, 0.34 and 0.06]) and derived the HERMES-24 score: age (years)/10+National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at 24 hours. The HERMES-24 score was highly predictive for mRS ≤2 (c-statistic 0.907 [95% CI, 0.879-0.935]) in the derivation cohort. In the validation cohort and the control arm, the HERMES-24 score predicts mRS ≤2 (c-statistic, 0.914 [95% CI, 0.886-0.944] and 0.909 [95% CI, 0.887-0.930]). Observed provability of mRS ≤2 ranged between 3.1% and 3.4% when HERMES-24 score ≥25, while it ranged between 90.6% and 93.0% when HERMES-24 score <10 in the derivation cohort, validation cohort, and control arm. The HERMES-24 score also showed c-statistics of 0.894 and 0.889 for mRS ≤2 in the ESCAPE-NA1 and INTERRSeCT populations., Conclusions: The post-treatment HERMES-24 score is a simple validated score that predicts a 3-month outcome after anterior circulation large vessel occlusion stroke regardless of intervention, which helps prognostic discussion with families on day 2., Competing Interests: Dr Brown reports consulting for B. Braun Interventional Systems, Inc, Medtronic, MicroVention, Inc, and the University of Calgary and is employed by BRIGHT Research Partners. Dr Goyal reports grants from Medtronic, Stryker, MicroVention, and Mentice; consulting for Stryker, Microvention, and Mentice; and a patent for systems and methods for acute stroke diagnosis with GE Healthcare. Dr Menon reports stock holdings in Circle Neurovascular Imaging and compensation from Roche and Boehringer Ingelheim. Dr Campbell reports grants from Covidien, Medtronic, and the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia and fellowships from the National Heart Foundation of Australia, the National Stroke Foundation of Australia, and the Royal Australasian College of Physicians. Dr Mitchell reports consulting for Stryker and MicroVention and grants from Medtronic and Stryker. Dr Jovin reports consulting for Contego Medical; grants/contracts from Medtronic and Stryker; data safety monitoring board participation with Johnson & Johnson CERENOVUS; and stock holdings in Anaconda, Basking, Freeox Biotech, Galaxy, Gravity, Kandu, Methinks, Route92, StataDX, and Vizai. Dr Saver reports consulting for Abbott Laboratories, Aeromics, Biogen, Boehringer Ingelheim, BrainQ, BrainsGate, CSL Behring, Johnson & Johnson Health Care Systems, Medtronic, MindRhythm, Roche, and Stream Medical; data safety monitoring board participation with MIVI Neuroscience; and stock holdings in Neuronics Medical and Rapid Medical. Dr Muir reports consulting for Boehringer Ingelheim, Bayer, and Daiichi Sankyo. Dr White reports consulting for MicroVention and grants from the UK National Institutes for Health Research, MicroVention, Stryker, Medtronic, and Penumbra. Dr Bracard reports grants from the French Ministry of Health; others from GE Medical Systems; and nonfinancial support from MicroVention Europe. Dr Roos reports stock holdings in Nicolab. Dr van Zwam reports grants/contracts from Bayer HealthCare Pharmaceuticals, Stryker, and Johnson & Johnson; employment by Maastricht Universitair Medisch Centrum; and data safety monitoring board participation with Philips. Dr Hill reports consulting for BrainsGate; grants/contracts from Biogen, Boehringer Ingelheim, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Medtronic MicroVention, and NoNO; end point review committee participation with Merck; employment by the University of Calgary; and a patent for Systems and Methods for Assisting in Decision-Making and Triaging for Acute Stroke Patients with Circle Neurovascular Imaging. Dr Demchuk reports consulting for Boehringer Ingelheim, HLS Therapeutics, Hoffmann-La Roche, Medtronic, Nova-Signal, and Servier; data safety monitoring board participation with Philips and Lumosa; others from Novo Nordisk AS, Pfizer, and Astra Zeneca; and stock and patent for Stroke imaging software with Circle Neurovascular Imaging. The other authors report no conflicts.
- Published
- 2024
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