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Mediation analysis allows the examination of effects of a third variable in the pathway between an exposure and an outcome. The general multiple mediation analysis method, proposed by Yu et al, improves traditional methods (eg, estimation of natural and controlled direct effects) to enable consideration of multiple mediators/confounders simultaneously and the use of linear and nonlinear predictive models for estimating mediation/confounding effects. In this paper, we extend the method for time-to-event outcomes and apply the method to explore the racial disparity in breast cancer survivals. Breast cancer is the most common cancer and the second leading cause of cancer death among women of all races. Despite improvement of survival rates of breast cancer in the US, a significant difference between white and black women remains. Previous studies have found that more advanced and aggressive tumors and less than optimal treatment may explain the lower survival rates for black women as compared to white women. Due to limitations of current analytic methods and the lack of comprehensive data sets, researchers have not been able to differentiate the relative effect each factor contributes to the overall racial disparity. We use the CDC-funded Patterns of Care study to examine the determinants of racial disparities in breast cancer survival using a novel multiple mediation analysis. Using the proposed method, we applied the Cox hazard model and multiple additive regression trees as predictive models and found that all racial disparity in survival among Louisiana breast cancer patients were explained by factors included in the study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drug-drug interactions (DDIs) are a common cause of adverse drug events (ADEs). The electronic medical record (EMR) database and the FDA's adverse event reporting system (FAERS) database are the major data sources for mining and testing the ADE associated DDI signals. Most DDI data mining methods focus on pair-wise drug interactions, and methods to detect high-dimensional DDIs in medical databases are lacking. In this paper, we propose 2 novel mixture drug-count response models for detecting high-dimensional drug combinations that induce myopathy. The "count" indicates the number of drugs in a combination. One model is called fixed probability mixture drug-count response model with a maximum risk threshold (FMDRM-MRT). The other model is called count-dependent probability mixture drug-count response model with a maximum risk threshold (CMDRM-MRT), in which the mixture probability is count dependent. Compared with the previous mixture drug-count response model (MDRM) developed by our group, these 2 new models show a better likelihood in detecting high-dimensional drug combinatory effects on myopathy. CMDRM-MRT identified and validated (54; 374; 637; 442; 131) 2-way to 6-way drug interactions, respectively, which induce myopathy in both EMR and FAERS databases. We further demonstrate FAERS data capture much higher maximum myopathy risk than EMR data do. The consistency of 2 mixture models' parameters and local false discovery rate estimates are evaluated through statistical simulation studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The joinpoint regression model (JRM) is used to describe trend changes in many applications and relies on the detection of joinpoints (changepoints). However, the existing joinpoint detection methods, namely, the grid search (GS)-based methods, are computationally demanding, and hence, the maximum number of computable joinpoints is limited. Herein, we developed a genetic algorithm-based joinpoint (GAJP) model in which an explicitly decoupled computing procedure for optimization and regression is used to embed a binary genetic algorithm into the JRM for optimal joinpoint detection. The combinations of joinpoints were represented as binary chromosomes, and genetic operations were performed to determine the optimum solution by minimizing the fitness function, the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and BIC3 . The accuracy and computational performance of the GAJP model were evaluated via intensive simulation studies and compared with those of the GS-based methods using BIC, BIC3 , and permutation test. The proposed method showed an outstanding computational efficiency in detecting multiple joinpoints. Finally, the suitability of the GAJP model for the analysis of cancer incidence trends was demonstrated by applying this model to data on the incidence of colorectal cancer in the United States from 1975 to 2016 from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program. Thus, the GAJP model was concluded to be practically feasible to detect multiple joinpoints up to the number of grids without requirement to preassign the number of joinpoints and be easily extendable to cancer trend analysis utilizing large datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With increasing trend of polypharmacy, drug-drug interaction (DDI)-induced adverse drug events (ADEs) are considered as a major challenge for clinical practice. As premarketing clinical trials usually have stringent inclusion/exclusion criteria, limited comedication data capture and often times small sample size have limited values in study DDIs. On the other hand, ADE reports collected by spontaneous reporting system (SRS) become an important source for DDI studies. There are two major challenges in detecting DDI signals from SRS: confounding bias and false positive rate. In this article, we propose a novel approach, propensity score-adjusted three-component mixture model (PS-3CMM). This model can simultaneously adjust for confounding bias and estimate false discovery rate for all drug-drug-ADE combinations in FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS), which is a preeminent SRS database. In simulation studies, PS-3CMM performs better in detecting true DDIs comparing to the existing approach. It is more sensitive in selecting the DDI signals that have nonpositive individual drug relative ADE risk (NPIRR). The application of PS-3CMM is illustrated in analyzing the FAERS database. Compared to the existing approaches, PS-3CMM prioritizes DDI signals differently. PS-3CMM gives high priorities to DDI signals that have NPIRR. Both simulation studies and FAERS data analysis conclude that our new PS-3CMM is a new method that is complement to the existing DDI signal detection methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biosurveillance for rapid detection of epidemics of diseases is a challenging area of endeavor in many respects. Hence, this area is in need of development of methodology and opens to novel methods of detection. In this study, a new simple statistical early outbreak detection approach is proposed to detect outbreaks of diseases in real time. The new approach is called LWMAT since it is based on linearly weighted moving average. Furthermore, it does not require a long baseline and partly takes into account of likely features of biosurveillance data such as nonstationary and overdispersion to some extent. Moreover, this newly proposed method is easily adapted to automated use in public health surveillance systems to monitor simultaneously large number time series of indicators associated with the relevant diseases. To compare the performance of the new method with those of some well-known outbreak detection methods, semisynthetic data with outbreaks of various magnitudes and durations are simulated by considering the weekly number of outpatient visits for influenza-like illness for the influenza seasons 2014-2015 through 2017-2018 at Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the United States. Under the conditions of the simulation studies, Serfling regression and Farrington flexible seem to be preferable methods for monitoring the weekly influenza data at CDC in terms of early identification of influenza outbreaks with a high probability. In addition, the newly proposed LWMAT-type methods appear to be promising and useful methods in the case of small magnitude outbreaks with a short duration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We discuss alternative estimators of the population total given a dual-frame random-digit-dial (RDD) telephone survey in which samples are selected from landline and cell phone sampling frames. The estimators are subject to sampling and nonsampling errors. To reduce sampling variability when an optimum balance of landline and cell phone samples is not feasible, we develop an application of shrinkage estimation. We demonstrate the implications for survey weighting of a differential nonresponse mechanism by telephone status. We illustrate these ideas using data from the National Immunization Survey-Child, a large dual-frame RDD telephone survey sponsored by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and conducted to measure the vaccination status of American children aged 19 to 35 months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies found that infection-related hospitalization was associated with increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) events, such as myocardial infarction and stroke in the dialysis population. In this work, we develop time-varying effects modeling tools in order to examine the CV outcome risk trajectories during the time periods before and after an initial infection-related hospitalization. For this, we propose partly conditional and fully conditional partially linear generalized varying coefficient models (PL-GVCMs) for modeling time-varying effects in longitudinal data with substantial follow-up truncation by death. Unconditional models that implicitly target an immortal population is not a relevant target of inference in applications involving a population with high mortality, like the dialysis population. A partly conditional model characterizes the outcome trajectory for the dynamic cohort of survivors, where each point in the longitudinal trajectory represents a snapshot of the population relationships among subjects who are alive at that time point. In contrast, a fully conditional approach models the time-varying effects of the population stratified by the actual time of death, where the mean response characterizes individual trends in each cohort stratum. We compare and contrast partly and fully conditional PL-GVCMs in our aforementioned application using hospitalization data from the United States Renal Data System. For inference, we develop generalized likelihood ratio tests. Simulation studies examine the efficacy of estimation and inference procedures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Missing data is a common complication in data analysis. In many medical settings missing data can cause difficulties in estimation, precision and inference. Multiple imputation (MI) (Multiple Imputation for Nonresponse in Surveys. Wiley: New York, 1987) is a simulation-based approach to deal with incomplete data. Although there are many different methods to deal with incomplete data, MI has become one of the leading methods. Since the late 1980s we observed a constant increase in the use and publication of MI-related research. This tutorial does not attempt to cover all the material concerning MI, but rather provides an overview and combines together the theory behind MI, the implementation of MI, and discusses increasing possibilities of the use of MI using commercial and free software. We illustrate some of the major points using an example from an Alzheimer disease (AD) study. In this AD study, while clinical data are available for all subjects, postmortem data are only available for the subset of those who died and underwent an autopsy. Analysis of incomplete data requires making unverifiable assumptions. These assumptions are discussed in detail in the text. Relevant S-Plus code is provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]