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Abstract. The methods used in regional population projections in the European Union and knowledge of internal migration processes in Council of Europe member states have advanced rapidly in the 1990s. This paper brings together these two streams of work and draws lessons from the analysis of migration processes in ten European countries for the design &the next round of European projections, to be launched once the 2000/2001 round of censuses has been successfully completed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present results of a probabilistic forecast for the population in 18 European countries, to 2050. Other forecasts have recently predicted a falling population size for those countries. However, there are reasons to expect higher immigration and lower mortality than the earlier forecasts did. Hence, we find that population decline is postponed in our forecast. The forecast also alerts us to the fact that many demographic developments cannot be forecasted accurately. Although ageing is certain, the extent to which this will occur is difficult to predict accurately. The number of elderly persons is very uncertain in the long run. This has major implications for all European countries in which reforms for pension systems and the provision of health care for the elderly are considered. The reforms must be robust against unexpected demographic developments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]