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A well-functioning bureaucracy is a precondition for efficient public goods provision. However, bureaucratic decision-making is still largely seen as a black box. We provide novel insights into the preferences of bureaucrats regarding their work outcomes. We focus on a major public sector activity and survey more than 900 real-life procurement officials in Finland and Germany. The questionnaire includes hypothetical choice experiments to study the relative importance of multiple features in tender outcomes. First, bureaucrats state to have substantial discretion at work but no important incentives. Second, our experimental results show that procurers are particularly worried about avoiding negative risks concerning prices and supplier reputation. Third, an avoidance of bidders with prior bad performance appears to be an extremely important factor. Fourth, procurers value a certain degree of competition, while litigation concerns and regional favoritism play only a small role. The striking lack of heterogeneous effects points towards the role of intrinsic motivation among public buyers in countries with high public sector capacity.

The composition of governing coalitions does not always reflect the relative sizes of the coalition members, but research has not been able to fully reconcile why. We propose that political parties with more (re-elected) incumbent representatives fare better in coalitional bargaining. To evaluate this argument empirically, we construct a data set of parties and governing coalitions in Finnish local governments. Using an instrumental variable strategy that hinges on within-party close elections between incumbents and non-incumbents, we find that, ceteris paribus, having more re-elected incumbents improves a party's coalitional bargaining outcomes. Descriptive evidence suggests that incumbent representation is particularly useful when a party is in a disadvantaged position (e.g., it is ideologically distant from other parties) and when the bargaining environment is more complex (e.g., there are more parties). Lastly, incumbent representation also matters for selection: parties that have more incumbent representatives nominate more incumbents in the municipal executive.

We study geographic political representation and geographic distribution of local public goods within local jurisdictions using geo-coded data on politicians, the electorate and elementary schools. Descriptive analysis reveals that poorer neighborhoods are under-represented and that local politicians have a strong support base in their home neighbourhoods. Based on randomized election outcomes due to personal vote count ties, geographic representation has a causal effect on school closures. The probability of closure is cut in half when a candidate living close to the school is randomly elected. High-income residents react to closures by moving away from the neighborhood, thus reinforcing segregation.

Background: Cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) possesses metastatic potential and causes significant mortality. However, clinical assessment of metastasis risk is challenging. We approached this challenge by harnessing artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm to identify metastatic primary cSCCs. Methods: Residual neural network-architectures were trained and fine-tuned to identify metastatic cSCCs on tumor tiles extracted from clinician annotated, hematoxylin and eosin-stained whole slide images representing metastatic (n=45) and non-metastatic (n=59) primary cSCCs. Findings: Several models were trained and tested with best area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0·689 when all primary tumors (n=104) regardless of time to metastasis were included. Metastatic primary tumors were further divided into two groups that metastasize rapidly (≤180d) (n=22) or slowly (>180d) after primary tumor detection (n=23). The algorithm was able to predict whether primary tumor was non-metastatic or classified as rapidly metastatic with slide-level AUROC of 0·747. This prediction was superior to blind assessment by pathologist and did not appear to rely on classical clinicopathological features or staging systems. Furthermore, risk factor (RF) model taking into account prediction by AI, Clark’s level and tumor diameter provided higher AUROC (0·917) than other tested RF models and predicted high 5-year disease specific survival (DSS) for patients with cSCC with 0 or 1 RFs (100% and 95·7%) and poor 5-year DSS for patients with cSCCs with 2 or 3 RFs (41·7% and 40·0%). Interpretation: These results provide evidence, that AI recognizes unknown features associated with metastasis and provides added value to challenging clinical risk assessment of metastasis and prognosis of primary cSCC. Funding: Sigrid Juselius Foundation, Finnish Cancer Research Foundation, Jane and Aatos Erkko Foundation, Cancer Foundation of the Southwest Finland, Finnish Dermatological Society, The Maud Kuistila Memorial Foundation, and Turku University Hospital. JSK is a doctoral candidate in the Doctoral Program for Clinical Investigation of the University of Turku. Declaration of Interest: None to declare. Ethical Approval: The study was approved by The Ethics Committee of the Hospital District of Southwest Finland (187/2006) and Auria Biobank’s Scientific Steering Committee (AB15-9721).

Voter demand for less redistribution in the face of mass migration maps into actual outcomes insofar as politicians supplying these policies respond to it. We study whether establishing new asylum-seeker centers influences redistributive outcomes in Finnish local elections --a country where municipalities have a significant control over fiscal policies. The sudden and unprecedentedly large inflow of asylum-seekers in the fall 2015 and the resulting establishment of asylum centers allows for a difference-in-differences design. We examine simultaneously supply and demand for redistribution by focusing both on candidates' policy positions and also voters' preferences. On the supply side, we find that, on average, candidates do not respond to the presence of refugees by adopting anti-redistributive positions. Our estimates are precise enough to rule out even fairly small effects. In contrast, on the demand side, there is evidence of various voter responses against redistribution (and in favor of the anti-immigration party), on average suggesting that representative democracy filters the mapping of voter preferences on policy outcomes. But this political disequilibrium comes at the price of a \textit{populist backlash}: we find decreased support for insider elite candidates. We probe the mechanism behind the backlash: in the localities more intensely exposed to refugee migration, we observe also a supply-side response (candidates oppose redistribution) while a demand response is less heterogeneous. In the municipalities where the gap between demand and supply is wider also the backlash is larger.

There is currently a heated debate about whether the general public should be required to wear protective face masks to contain COVID-19. A key concern is that compulsory face mask policies will make the public feel safer, and may (due to risk compensation) undermine the most important public-health advice to contain COVID-19 – which is to reduce mobility and maintain social distancing. This study provides first evidence on the impact of compulsory face mask policies on community mobility. We use a difference-in-differences design, which exploits the staggered implementation of compulsory face mask policies by German states. We use anonymised GPS data from Google's Location History feature to measure daily mobility in public spaces. We find no evidence suggesting that compulsory face mask policies affect community mobility in public spaces in Germany. We can rule out even small increases in mobility that are larger than 0.03 standard deviations.

We provide novel stylized facts about competition, bidding, entry and bidders across a wide spectrum of public procurement auctions using comprehensive and rich Finnish data. Competition for publicly procured contracts is relatively low with a median bidder count of two (three conditional on receiving any bids). Bidders typically are very heterogeneous in size, which likely limits competition further. Competition seems to work roughly as expected as on average (standardized) bids mainly decrease with the number of actual and potential bidders. Using information on registrations as a good proxy for potential bidders, we show that the ratio of actual to potential bidders increases with the number of actual bidders. We also show that being present in the contracting authority's municipality or province correlates positively with registering, entry (bidding) and winning, but other firm characteristics matter less. While attracting more competition by means of contract and auction rule design is a desirable policy goal and we show suggestive evidence that the use of scoring rule can be an entry barrier, increasing competition may be in practice difficult. Therefore, reservation prices may be a more useful policy tool to alleviate issues associated with the lack of competition.

What effect does using open (as opposed to closed) lists in proportional representation elections have on party performance and the quality of candidate selection? We provide novel evidence by studying local elections in Colombia, where parties have discretion to field either open or closed lists. Using panel data covering the 1,100 Colombian municipalities for the 2003–2015 period, we leverage within-party, within-municipality, and over-time variation to identify the effect of ballot structure. We find that the adoption of open list dramatically increases parties’ vote and seat shares. Semi-structured interviews with a representative sample of candidates reveal that parties that use closed list struggle to attract high-quality candidates and to incentivize them to campaign. Consistent with these mechanisms, our statistical analyses confirm that open-list candidates are more experienced, more engaged in their constituencies and campaigns, and less likely to have committed election fraud in the past.

Much of what we know about the alignment of voters with parties comes from mass surveys of the electorate in the postwar period or from aggregate electoral data. Using individual elector level panel data from 19th-century United Kingdom poll books, we reassess the development of a party-centred electorate. We show that (i) the electorate was party-centred by the time of the extension of the franchise in 1867; (ii) a decline in candidate-centred voting is largely attributable to changes in the behaviour of the working class; and (iii) the enfranchised working class aligned with the Liberal left. This early alignment of the working class with the left cannot entirely be explained by a decrease in vote buying. The evidence suggests instead that the alignment was based on the programmatic appeal of the Liberals. We argue that these facts can plausibly explain the subsequent development of the party system.

We study parties' optimal ideological cohesion across electoral rules, when the following trade-off is present: A more heterogenous set of candidates is electorally appealing (catch-all party), yet, it serves policy-related goals less efficiently. When the rule becomes more disproportional, thus inducing a more favorable seat allocation for the winner, the first effect is amplified, incentivizing parties to be less cohesive. We provide empirical support using a unique data-set that records candidates' ideological positions in Finnish municipal elections. Exploiting an exogenous change of electoral rule disproportionality at different population thresholds, we identify the causal effect of electoral rules on parties' cohesion.

We study the effects of municipal mergers on voter turnout in a difference-in -differences framework, using data from a wave of municipal mergers in Finland in 2009. Analysing two pre-merger elections and three post-merger elections, spanning a total of 17 years, we find that municipal mergers decrease voter turnout by 4 percentage points in the long run in the relatively small municipalities compared to similar small municipalities that did not merge. As the average turnout rate prior to merging in this group was around 69%, this is a substantial effect. We also find that virtually nothing happens to turnout in the municipalities that were relatively large within their merger. Furthermore, mergers are associated with a decrease in voters’ political efficacy and turnout decreases more in those municipalities that experience larger decreases in efficacy.

We study how political parties select political leaders. Using regression discontinuity design and data from Finnish local elections, we find that parties use vote ranks to decide upon promotions. Moreover, we show that this primary effect is higher when competition either between or within parties is lower. We document differences in promotion patterns between parties, the primary effect being stronger in right-wing parties. This result is in line with previous research arguing that right-wing parties prefer more inclusive nomination procedures. Finally, our descriptive analysis suggests that parties weight previous political experience and candidates’ policy positions in their promotion decisions more than voters value these characteristics.

We analyze whether voters value local political representation by exploiting municipal mergers, which increase the number of candidates available to voters and intensify political competition. In the Finnish open-list proportional representation system, voters rank the candidates within parties, and thus, concentrating votes to local candidates increases the extent of local representation. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that the vote distributions become more concentrated in municipalities less likely to gain local representation after the mergers. Moreover, the effect is much larger in municipalities where the benefits of local representation to voters are large. The latter result disentangles voters’ responses from the responses of other political actors. The results are important also for designing local government mergers, which are an important policy tool in many countries. They highlight that concerns over deteriorating local democracy due to mergers have merit, because voters have preferences for local representation. At the same time, the vote concentration patterns we find alleviate these concerns.

We use data for 198121 candidates and 1351 random election outcomes to estimate the effect of incumbency status on future electoral success. We find no evidence of incumbency advantage using data on randomized elections. In contrast, regression discontinuity design, using optimal bandwidths, produces a positive and significant incumbency effect. Using even narrower bandwidths aligns the results with those obtained using the randomized elections. So does the bias-correction of Calonico et al. (forthcoming). Standard validity tests are not useful in detecting the problems with the optimal bandwidths. The appropriate bandwidth seems narrower in larger elections and is thus context specific.

We analyze free-riding behavior by Finnish municipalities prior to municipal mergers. The merger process creates a temporary common pool problem, which arises because of a delay from the initial merger decision to the actual merger. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we find large responses to free riding incentives. Consistent with the “law of 1/n”, the stronger the free-riding incentive a municipality faced, the more it increased its per capita debt and used up its cash reserves. These funds were spent mostly on investment and current expenditures. The results are somewhat surprising because the mergers were agreed upon voluntarily.

I study the role of minimum bid increments (MBI) in internet auctions using field experiment data. I sell identical gift cards while varying the MBI. Internet auctions have typically been viewed as second-price, implying truthful bidding. However, due to the presence of the MBI, equilibrium bidding behavior involves bid-shading. I test between truthful bidding and equilibrium bidding. Truthful bidding is rejected. Bidders conduct bid-shading in a pattern consistent with equilibrium bidding. I also report that the revenue maximizing level for the MBI is higher than zero and the eBay level is close to optimal. Moreover, a high MBI inefficiently limits entry.

We study whether the mechanism design in the central bank liquidity auctions matters for the interbank money market interest rate levels and volatility. Furthermore, we compare different mechanisms to sell liquidity in terms of revenue, efficiency and auction stage interest rate levels and volatility. Most importantly, we ask which mechanism is the best at implementing the target policy interest rates to the interbank market and what are the trade-offs involved. We construct a relatively general model of strategic bidding with interdependent valuations, and combine it with a stylized model of the interbank market. The novel feature of the model is that the expectations of the interbank market outcomes determine the valuations in the liquidity auctions. The model captures the relevant features of how the European Central Bank sells liquidity. We use simulations to compare discriminatory price, uniform price and Vickrey auctions to a posted price mechanism with full allotment. In order to analyze interactions between the primary and the secondary market under four different mechanisms, we need to make a lot of assumptions and simplifications. Given this caveat, we find that posted prices with full allotment is clearly the superior alternative in terms of implementing the policy interest rate to the interbank markets. This comes at the cost of less revenue compared to the revenue maximizing discriminatory price auction, but surprisingly, will not result in efficiency losses compared even to the Vickrey auction. Keywords: ECB liquidity auctions, Interbank markets, Mechanism design, Multi-unit auctions, Monetary policy, Posted-Prices. JEL: C63, C72, D02, D44, D47, D53, E43, E44, E52, E58, G21.

We analyze how (anticipated) changes in the competitiveness of the seats of municipal councilors affect their voting behavior over municipal mergers. The competitiveness of the seats changes because the merger changes the composition of political competitors and the number of available seats in the next election. We use this variation for identification and find that the smaller the increase in the competitiveness of a councilor's seat, the more likely he is to vote for the merger. These effects are not related to the behavioral responses of the voters, but arise from the councilors’ desire to avoid electoral competition.