Search

French Abstract: L’objectif de ces modules consiste a demystifier l’econometrie et a aider les chercheurs de tout bord (universitaires et praticiens) a se familiariser avec les techniques econometriques les plus utilisees grâce a l’usage des logiciels econometriques les plus repandus, tels que Stata et E-Views. English Abstract: The aim of these modules is to demystify applied econometrics and to help researchers (academics and practitioners) to use the most widely used econometric software such as Stata and E-Views.

The ability to accurately predict potential corporate distress and to provide early warnings has become of interest not only to managers but also to external stakeholders of a company. In this way, and since there are very distinct differences in the accounting procedures and the quality of financial statements between the firms in Tunisia and those in the other countries, it may not be rational to adopt models developed elsewhere to forecast the potential distressed situations. Hence, the purpose of this study is to examine the effect of logistic regression on bankruptcy prediction accuracy of the Tunisian firms. Applying this statistical technique to a sample of 214 distressed companies, and 1550 "healthy" we determine those financial ratios that establish the differences between these groups, and thus predict possible financial distress. The results demonstrate that profitability, solvency and debt ratios are among the most significant ones for the wholesale and retail companies. For the manufacturing companies, profitability and leverage ratios are the most significant ones.

Through a cross sectional analysis of 48 firms, over a seven-year period, from 1996 to 2002, we try to shed some light into two sides. First of all, we research whether managers smooth their dividend policies or not. Besides, we outline the main determinants that may influence the dividend policy pattern. Specifically, we attempt to find answers to the following questions: Do Tunisian firms follow stable dividend policies or not? Do dividend yields differ across industries? What are the main factors that determine the dividend policy making? In the first section, Lintner's model is applied. Our results show that Tunisian firms rely on both current earnings and past dividends. However, it seems that dividends tend to be more sensitive to current earnings than prior dividends. Any variability in the earnings of the corporation is directly reflected in the level of dividends. However, dividend policy does vary across financial and non-financial industries. Our results uncover a low target payout ratio of respectively 16% and 27% for non-financial and financial firms while the adjustment speed respectively ranges from 0.68 to 1.56. Non-financial institutions adopt therefore a more smoothing dividend policy. Secondly, through a fully developed model, we highlight some factors that may influence the dividend policy pattern. First, riskier firms with high financial leverage pay out fewer dividends and have lower dividend yields. Furthermore, high-profitability firms with more stable earnings can also afford more dividends. However, larger investment opportunities deprive firms from higher dividends. Similarly, growing firms distribute fewer dividends. Additionally, dividends serve to reduce agency costs between the shareholders themselves only whereas the conflicts between insiders and outsiders seem to be not resolved with dividends. This matter holds true only in non-financial firms. In this vein, it should be noted that our analysis does show significant differences throughout financial versus non-financial industries. Finally, the size of Tunisian corporations has a systematic negative effect on dividend policy.

This paper investigates the impact of banks' characteristics, financial structure and macroeconomic indicators on banks' net interest margins and profitability in the Tunisian banking industry for the 1980-2000 period. First, individual bank characteristics explain a substantial part of the within-country variation in bank interest margins and net profitability. High net interest margin and profitability tend to be associated with banks that hold a relatively high amount of capital, and with large overheads. Second, the paper finds that the inflation has a positive impact on banks' net interest margin while economic growth has no incidence Third, turning to financial structure and its impact on banks' interest margin and profitability, we find that concentration is less beneficial to the Tunisian commercial banks than competition. Stock market development has a positive effect on bank profitability. This reflects the complementarities between bank and stock market growth. We have found that the disintermediation of the Tunisian financial system is favourable to the banking sector profitability.