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This article uses a survey amongst students at European universities to explore whether Russia's invasion of Ukraine has affected attitudes towards European integration. Some respondents completed the survey just before Russia's assault on 24 February 2022, and some did so just afterwards, thus delivering a quasi-experimental design situation, which we exploit. Our results suggest that the ominous news about the Russian attack increased the participants' interest in EU politics, consolidated their attachment to the EU and made them more mindful and appreciative of the benefits of deeper European integration. In effect, the war so close to the EU Eastern border provoked a rally around the supranational EU flag, with convergence of public opinion towards shared European values.

We investigate how UK bank business lending responded to the simultaneous use of quantitative easing, leverage ratio capital requirements, and government COVID lending support schemes. We find no evidence that the Brexit wave increased lending to nonfinancial businesses, compared to the previous waves, except for QE-banks subject to the UK leverage ratio, suggesting that the ratio incentivised QE-banks to lend to businesses. The government schemes helped expand lending especially to SMEs post the COVID wave, indicating that complementing QE with other credit easing programmes can reinforce its impact on lending to the real economy. During COVID-stress, changes to the UK leverage ratio supported better market-making in securities markets, and additional QE liquidity boosted stronger repo market intermediation.

We consider a stochastic game between a trader and a central bank in a target zone market with a lower currency peg. This currency peg is maintained by the central bank through the generation of permanent price impact, thereby aggregating an ever increasing risky position in foreign reserves. We describe this situation mathematically by means of two coupled singular control problems, where the common singularity arises from a local time along a random curve. Our first result identifies a certain local time as that central bank strategy for which this risk position is minimized. We then consider the worst-case situation the central bank may face by identifying that strategy of the strategic investor that maximizes the expected inventory of the central bank under a cost criterion, thus establishing a Stackelberg equilibrium in our model., 16 pages, 5 figures

In this paper, we gauge the degree of interconnectedness and quantify the linkages between global and other systemically important institutions, and the global financial system. We document that the two groups and the financial system become more interconnected during the global financial crisis when linkages across groups grow. In contrast, during tranquil times linkages within groups prevail. Global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) contribute most to system-wide distress but are also most exposed. There are more links coming from G-SIBs to other systemically important institutions (O-SIIs) than the other way around, confirming the role of G-SIBs as major risk transmitters in the financial system. The two groups and the global financial system tend to co-vary for periods up to 60 days Prior to their official designation as G-SIBs or O-SIIs, the prevalent news sentiment about these institutions (we measure with a textual analysis) was negative. Importantly, the systemic importance and exposure of G-SIBs and O-SIIs is perceived differently by the Financial Stability Board (FSB) and the European Banking Authority (EBA).

To shed light on the effects of individual choice on pension wealth, we study a policy change to the management fees of pension funds implemented by Peru's government in 2013. The reform established a new balance fee as a default option; this fee is calculated as a percentage of the pension balance. Each individual had the initial option of keeping the previous management fee, a load factor fee calculated as a percentage of the individual's salary. We use administrative data to simulate pension balances based on the individual's choice of fee and the corresponding counterfactual. Our results indicate that the reform has been potentially adverse to 63.1 percent of individuals, of whom 41.4 percent were assigned to the default option and 21.7 percent voluntarily chose the load fee. These results reflect both the potentially negative unintended effects of the policy and an alarming lack of financial literacy among citizens. We also detect heterogeneity in the intensity of the losses and gains due to the reform, which caused greater losses than gains. In particular, younger and poorer individuals, as well as those automatically assigned to the balance fee, experienced higher losses. Moreover, the new fee scheme is also associated with increasing inequality between individuals' pension wealth.

In a growing body of literature on categorization in organization theory, researchers are exploring the stabilizing role of categories and the processes by which they emerge. Because the literature focuses mainly on categories that emerge successfully or are already established, we know much less about why categories fall out of use or fail to emerge. Rather than viewing declining usage or failed emergence as different processes, we argue that they are two aspects of the single problem of understanding what makes a category viable. Focusing on the coherence of the items included in a category and how distinct they are compared to items in other categories, we develop the concept of category viability and argue that viable categories are those found useful for sensemaking, analysis, and coordination because they balance both coherence and distinctiveness to fall within what we call a zone of viability. To illustrate how category viability helps explain both change and continuity of categories, we also offer a framework to describe the process by which categories move in or out of the zone of viability with deliberate actions or with shifting circumstances that change their members or positions relative to other categories.

In this paper we introduce a new technology for the pricing of European options for a wide class of models. The method is based on a quantization technique that exploits the knowledge of the characteristic function for the price process in closed form, and is quick and accurate enough to calibrate on financial data. Moreover, it allows to introduce the concept of market implied liquidity, linking the pricing under stochastic volatility with the Conic Finance theory of two prices. As a motivating example, we construct for the first time the market implied liquidity surface under stochastic volatility.

Internships during tertiary education have become substantially more common over the past decades in many industrialised countries. This study examines the impact of a voluntary intra-curricular internship experience during university studies on the probability of being invited to a job interview. To estimate a causal relationship, we conducted a randomised field experiment in which we sent 1248 fictitious, but realistic, resumes to real job openings. We find that applicants with internship experience have, on average, a 12.6% higher probability of being invited to a job interview.

How to prevent runs on open-end mutual funds? In recent years, markets have observed an innovation that changed the way open-end funds are priced. Alternative pricing rules (known as swing pricing) adjust funds' net asset values to pass on funds' trading costs to transacting shareholders. Using unique data on investor transactions in U.K. corporate bond funds, we show that swing pricing eliminates the first-mover advantage arising from the traditional pricing rule and significantly reduces redemptions during stress periods. The stabilizing effect is internalized particularly by institutional investors and investors with longer investment horizons. The positive impact of alternative pricing rules on fund flows reverses in calm periods when costs associated with higher tracking error dominate the pricing effect.

Available online: 10 February 2020 Electricity markets with high installed capacities of Variable Renewable Energy Sources (VRES) experience periods of supply and demand mismatch, resulting in near-zero and even negative prices, or energy spilling due to surplus. The participation of emerging Power-to-X solutions in a sector coupling paradigm, such as Power-to-Gas (PTG), has been envisioned to provide a source of demand flexibility to the power sector and decarbonize the gas sector. We advance a long-run equilibrium model to study the PTG investment decision from the point of view of a perfectly competitive electricity and gas system where each sector's market is cleared separately but coupled by PTG. Under scenarios combining PTG technology costs and electricity RES targets, we study whether or not there is a convergence in the optimal deployment of PTG capacity and what is the welfare distribution across both sectors. We observe that PTG can play an important price-setting role in the electricity market, but PTG revenues from arbitrage opportunities erodes as more PTG capacity is installed. We find that the electricity and gas sector have aligned incentives to cooperate around PTG, and instead find an issue of misaligned incentives related to the PTG actor. Although not the focus of our analysis, in some scenarios we find that the welfare optimal PTG capacity results in a loss for the PTG actor, which reveals some intuition that subsidizing PTG can make sense to reduce the cost of RES subsidies. Sensitivity analyses are conducted to contextualize these findings for system specificities.

We consider a sales effort management problem under an all-or-nothing constraint. The seller will receive no bonus/revenue if the sales volume fails to reach a predetermined target at the end of the sales horizon. Throughout the sales horizon, the sales process can be moderated by the seller through costly effort. We show that the optimal sales rate is nonmonotonic with respect to the remaining time or the outstanding sales volume required to reach the target. Generally, it has a watershed structure, such that for any needed sales volume, there exists a cutoff point on the remaining time above which the optimal sales rate decreases in the remaining time and below which it increases in the remaining time. We then study easy-to-compute heuristics that can be implemented efficiently. We start with a static heuristic derived from the deterministic analog of the stochastic problem. With an all-or-nothing constraint, we show that the performance of the static heuristic hinges on how the profit-maximizing rate fares against the target rate, which is defined as the sales target divided by the length of the sales horizon. When the profit-maximizing rate is higher than the target rate, the static heuristic adopting the optimal deterministic rate is asymptotically optimal with negligible loss. On the other hand, when the profit-maximizing rate is lower than the target rate, the performance loss of any asymptotically optimal static heuristic is of an order greater than the square root of the scale parameter. To address the poor performance of the static heuristic in the latter case, we propose a modified resolving heuristic and show that it is asymptotically optimal and achieves a logarithmic performance loss. This paper was accepted by Gabriel Weintraub, revenue management and market analytics.

We analyse a sample of 6 million firm-year observations of large corporations and small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) spanning 6 European countries from 2005 to 2015, to determine the impact of leverage and different sources of funding on default risk. We find that financial leverage has a greater impact on the probability of default of SMEs than of large corporations. The difference in default probability between the top and bottom leverage quartiles is 1.24% for large firms and 2.87% for SMEs. This difference may be explained by the greater exposure of SMEs to short-term debt and their consequently higher refinancing risk. Indeed, we find that SMEs that recover from the state of insolvency may have similar leverage to defaulted SMEs; however their liability structure is significantly altered towards long-term debt and away from short-term debt. Our findings have important implications not only for bank regulators and policy-makers but also for credit risk modelling.

This paper offers a framework to understand informal financing based on mechanisms to deal with asymmetric information and enforcement. We find that constructive informal financing such as trade credits and family borrowing that relies on information advantages or an altruistic relationship is associated with good firm performance. Underground financing such as money lenders who use violence for enforcement is not. Constructive informal financing is prevalent in regions where access to bank loans is extensive, while its role in supporting firm growth decreases with bank loan availability. International comparisons show that China is not an outlier but rather average in using informal financing.

The relationship between changes in GDP and unemployment during the 2008 financial crisis differed significantly from previous experiences and across countries. We study firm-level decisions in France, Germany, Japan, the UK, and the US. We find significant differences between the response of US and non-US firms. US firms significantly decreased their production costs relative to firms in other countries. They have also reduced debt, reduced dividend payout, and increased their cash holdings compared to firms in other countries. The differences are, in general, explained by differences in financial leverage. However, financial leverage does not explain differences between production decisions in German and U.S. firms and between Japanese and US firms. We argue that differences in firm governance between US firms and firms in Germany and Japan drive these responses. US firms are more prone to cut labor costs and reduce leverage compared to German firms and Japanese firms in order to achieve larger profits and a larger cash-cushion in the short-run.

© 2019 Elsevier B.V. This paper introduces a class of unit-linked annuities that extends existing annuities by allowing portfolio shocks to be gradually absorbed into the annuity payouts. Consequently, our new class enables insurers to offer an affordable and adequate annuity with a stable payout stream. We show how to price and adequately hedge the annuity payouts in a general financial environment. In particular, our model accounts for various stylized facts of stock returns such as asymmetry and heavy-tailedness. Furthermore, the generality of our framework makes it possible to explore the impact of a parameter misspecification on the annuity price and the hedging performance. ispartof: INSURANCE MATHEMATICS & ECONOMICS vol:86 pages:19-42 status: published

This study investigates the impact on first hiring outcomes of two main curriculum vitae (CV) characteristics by which graduates with a tertiary education degree distinguish themselves from their peers: degree class and extra-curricular activities. These characteristics were randomly assigned to 2,800 fictitious job applications that were sent to real vacancies in Belgium. Academic performance and extra-curricular engagement enhance job interview rates by 7.0% (CI 95% [0.3%, 13.7%]) and 6.5% (CI 95% [-0.5%, 13.4%]), respectively. We did not find evidence for these CV characteristics to reinforce or reduce their effect.

© 2018 Elsevier Ltd We study the effect of trade liberalization on child mortality using data from emerging and developing countries over the 1960–2010 period. To capture possible heterogeneity of effects, we use the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) for comparative case studies. The SCM allows to compare the trajectory of post-reform health outcomes of treated countries (those which experienced trade liberalization) with the trajectory of a combination of similar but untreated countries. On average, trade liberalization significantly reduced child mortality. The average reduction is around 9% ten years after the liberalization. But there is significant heterogeneity in the impact. For the cases for which the SCM could provide a reliable counterfactual, trade liberalization significantly reduced child mortality in approximately half the cases. In most other cases there was no significant effect. In the majority of the significant cases, the reduction in child mortality was more than 20%. On average, trade liberalization reduced child mortality more (a) in democracies compared to autocracies, (b) when incomes were higher and (c) when it reduced taxation of farmers. ispartof: WORLD DEVELOPMENT vol:110 pages:394-410 status: published

We introduce a new solution concept for models of coalition formation, called the myopic stable set (MSS). The MSS is defined for a general class of social environments and allows for an infinite state space. An MSS exists and, under minor continuity assumptions, it is also unique. The MSS generalizes and unifies various results from more specific applications. It coincides with the coalition structure core in coalition function form games when this set is nonempty; with the set of stable matchings in the Gale–Shapley matching model; with the set of pairwise stable networks and closed cycles in models of network formation; and with the set of pure strategy Nash equilibria in pseudo-potential games and finite supermodular games. We also characterize the MSS for the class of proper simple games., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Copyright © 2017 Strategic Management Society Research summary: This article demonstrates the potential of computer-aided text analysis (CATA) as a technique to operationalize hard-to-measure constructs in international business research, provided that a rigorous set of validity tests is applied. CATA allows researchers to perform content analyses on large textual databases by constructing indicators using deductively and inductively derived keywords. We show the critical validity steps that have to be followed to arrive at valid CATA indicators. We illustrate the CATA technique through an application to the concept of global mind-set, which has received substantial attention in the international business and strategy literature. We conclude that CATA analysis is a valuable method for international business research, but that its potential can be unleashed only with proper procedures and due attention to construct validity. Managerial summary: With the increasing availability of large textual databases such as collections of press releases, newswire archives, and SEC filings, computer-aided text analysis (CATA) creates new opportunities to analyze otherwise unobserved firm and managerial traits. CATA can be applied to a broad range of firm activities and industries across long time periods, while eschewing the low response rates typical for surveys. In this article, we demonstrate the critical validity steps that have to be followed to arrive at valid CATA indicators of firm and managerial traits, with an application to international business. As an empirical illustration, we build a keyword-based indicator of firms' global mind-sets using a large dataset of news articles. Copyright © 2017 Strategic Management Society. ispartof: Global Strategy Journal vol:7 issue:3 pages:312-331 status: published

Do claims on the private sector serve the role of safe assets? We answer this question using high-frequency panel data on prices and quantities of certificates of deposit (CD) and commercial paper (CP) issued in Europe. We show that only very short-term private securities benefit from a premium for safety. Using several identification strategies, we show that the issuance of short-term CDs, but not of CPs, strongly responds to measures of safety demand. The private production of safe assets is stronger for issuers with high credit worthiness, and breaks down during episodes of market stress. We conclude that even very short-term private assets are sensitive to changes in the information environment and should not be treated as equally safe at all times.

We study the dynamics of longevity risk across a subset of cou ntries in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region. We use hand-collected and existing data on age-spec ific mortality rates from emerging and developed economies, to understand how secular changes in mortality vary within and across APAC countries. We use our results to identify cross-hedging opportunities among longevity risk exposures in the APAC region. We also introduce k -forward contracts, which offer natural risk sharing opportunities to hedgers in different countries. We consider the example of Korea and Japan as a case study

Using proprietary data on banks’ monthly securities holdings, we show that during the European sovereign debt crisis, domestic banks in fiscally stressed countries were considerably more likely than foreign banks to increase their holdings of domestic sovereign bonds during months when the government needed to roll over a relatively large amount of maturing debt. This result cannot be explained by risk shifting, carry trading, or regulatory compliance. Domestic banks that received government support, are small, or with weaker balance sheets were particularly susceptible to “moral suasion,” while governance of banks played less of a role. (JEL D72, E62, G21, G28, H11, H63).

We solve for optimal consumption and portfolio choice in a life-cycle model with short-sales and borrowing constraints; undiversifiable labor income risk; and a predictable, time-varying, equity premium and show that the investor pursues aggressive market timing strategies. Importantly, in the presence of stock market predictability, the model suggests that the conventional financial advice of reducing stock market exposure as retirement approaches is correct on average, but ignoring changing market information can lead to substantial welfare losses. Therefore, enhanced target-date funds (ETDFs) that condition on expected equity premia increase welfare relative to target-date funds (TDFs). Out-of-sample analysis supports these conclusions.

This paper examines the effect of real-world, investor-level investment constraints, including several that have not been studied before, on hedge fund performance and its persistence. Using a large consolidated database, we demonstrate that hedge fund performance persistence is significantly reduced when rebalancing rules reflect fund size restrictions and liquidity constraints but remains statistically significant at higher rebalancing frequencies. Hypothetical investor portfolios that incorporate additional minimum diversification constraints, minimum investment requirements, and focus on open funds suggest that the performance and its persistence documented in earlier studies of hedge funds is not easily exploitable, especially by large investors.

Propagation of balance-sheet or cash-flow insolvency across financial institutions may be modeled as a cascade process on a network representing their mutual exposures. We derive rigorous asymptotic results for the magnitude of contagion in a large financial network and give an analytical expression for the asymptotic fraction of defaults, in terms of network characteristics. Our results extend previous studies on contagion in random graphs to inhomogeneous directed graphs with a given degree sequence and arbitrary distribution of weights. We introduce a criterion for the resilience of a large financial network to the insolvency of a small group of financial institutions and quantify how contagion amplifies small shocks to the network. Our results emphasize the role played by "contagious links" and show that institutions which contribute most to network instability in case of default have both large connectivity and a large fraction of contagious links. The asymptotic results show good agreement with simulations for networks with realistic sizes., 40 pages, 5 figures

Under the assumption of multivariate normality of asset returns, this paper presents a geometric interpretation and the finite-sample distributions of the sample Hansen–Jagannathan bounds on the variance of admissible stochastic discount factors, with and without the nonnegativity constraint on the stochastic discount factors. In addition, since the sample Hansen–Jagannathan bounds can be very volatile, we propose a simple method to construct confidence intervals for the population Hansen–Jagannathan bounds. Finally, we show that the analytical results in the paper are robust to departures from the normality assumption. Data, as supplemental material, are available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2015.2222 . This paper was accepted by Jerome Detemple, operations management.

We present the results of a questionnaire study in Belgium, Burkina Faso and Indonesia focusing on the problem of the just allocation of an indivisible good. The formal axioms proposed in social choice theory offer an attractive framework to structure the response patterns. Interindividual differences can be interpreted in a meaningful way in terms of basic intuitions about desert, efficiency and compensation. Belgian students are most resource-egalitarian, Burkinese students attach a large weight to innate capacities, Indonesian students focus on actual production. The crucial no-envy criterion is supported by a majority of respondents, but this majority becomes small if there is an unavoidable conflict between no-envy and the “responsibility” requirement of the stand-alone upper bound. We discuss the pros and cons of questionnaire-experimental studies as compared to large representative surveys.

Recent studies of US Chapter 11 show it to be a relatively efficient procedure. We examine reorganization cases in a Continental European, creditor-oriented bankruptcy system, viz. Belgium, and report very different findings. Using hazard and cure regression models to determine what drives the length of time spent in reorganizations, we find evidence suggesting that courts have little impact on the screening and filtering process. In fact, many drivers of procedure length prove to have the opposite sign of what one would expect if the procedure would efficiently realise its goals. Instead, the procedure appears to be mainly creditor or owner-driven. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. ispartof: International Review of Law and Economics vol:29 issue:4 pages:375-387 ispartof: location:Prague, Czech Republic status: published