Estimation, History, Counterfactual conditional, Polymers and Plastics, Computer science, Impact evaluation, 05 social sciences, Event study, ComputerApplications_COMPUTERSINOTHERSYSTEMS, 01 natural sciences, Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, 010104 statistics & probability, Causal inference, 0502 economics and business, Econometrics, Treatment effect, 050207 economics, 0101 mathematics, Business and International Management, Efficient energy use
Abstract
This paper introduces an approach for estimation of treatment effect heterogeneity in event studies with staggered adoption. Traditional impact evaluation methods can be near-term biased in those settings. The proposed approach attenuates biases and recovers heterogeneity more efficiently than traditional methods. It is shown that machine learning algorithms can be used to accurately predict counterfactuals, which can then be used to estimate a distribution of treatment effects. Simulations demonstrate how that approach can be accurate and efficient, even in the presence of dynamic treatment effects. The paper concludes with an application to a large energy efficiency program in the US.