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• Preoperative patient activation is an independent predictor of minimum clinically important difference (MCID) for PROMIS pain at 1-year follow-up. • Preoperative patient activation is an independent predictor of MCID for PROMIS physical function at 1-year follow-up. • Routine preoperative assessment of patient activation may help identify patients at risk for poor clinical outcomes. Patient activation is a patient's willingness to take independent actions to manage their own health care. The goal of this study is to determine whether preoperative patient activation measure (PAM) predicts minimum clinically important difference (MCID) for Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) pain, physical function, depression, and anxiety for patients undergoing elective spine surgery. Retrospective review. A single-institution, academic database of patients undergoing elective spine surgery. MCID at 1-year follow-up for PROMIS pain, physical function, depression and anxiety. We retrospectively reviewed a single-institution, academic database of patients undergoing elective spine surgery. Preoperative patient activation was evaluated using the PAM-13 survey, which was used to stratify patients into four activation stages. Primary outcome variable was achieving MCID at 1-year follow-up for PROMIS pain and physical function. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to determine impact of patient activation on PROMIS pain and the physical function. Of the 430 patients, 220 (51%) were female with a mean age of 58.2±16.8. Preoperatively, 34 (8%) were in activation stage 1, 45 (10%) in stage 2, 98 (23%) in stage 3, and 253 (59%) in stage 4. At 1-year follow up, 248 (58%) achieved MCID for PROMIS physical function, 256 (60%) achieved MCID for PROMIS pain, 151 (35.28%) achieved MCID for PROMIS depression, and 197 (46%) achieved MCID for PROMIS anxiety. For PROMIS physical function, when compared to patients at stage 1 activation, patients at stage 2 (aOR:3.49, 95% CI:1.27, 9.59), stage 3 (aOR:3.54, 95% CI:1.40, 8.98) and stage 4 (aOR:7.88, 95% CI:3.29, 18.9) were more likely to achieve MCID. For PROMIS pain, when compared against patients at stage 1, patients at stage 3 (aOR:2.82, 95% CI:1.18, 6.76) and stage 4 (aOR:5.44, 95% CI:2.41, 12.3) were more likely to achieve MCID. For PROMIS depression, when compared against patients at stage 1, patients at stage 4 were more likely to achieve MCID (Adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR):2.59, 95% CI:1.08–6.19). For PROMIS anxiety, when compared against patients at stage 1, stage 3 (Adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR):3.21, 95% CI:1.20–8.57), and stage 4 (aOR:5.56, 95% CI:2.20–14.01) were more likely to achieve MCID. Patients at higher stages of activation were more likely to achieve MCID for PROMIS pain, physical function, depression, and anxiety at 1-year follow-up. Routine preoperative assessment of patient activation may help identify patients at risk of poor outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The ability to preoperatively predict which patients will achieve a minimal clinically important difference (MCID) after lumbar spine decompression surgery can help determine the appropriateness and timing of surgery. Patient-Reported Outcome Measurement Information System (PROMIS) scores are an increasingly popular outcome instrument.Purpose: The purpose of this study was to develop algorithms predictive of achieving MCID after primary lumbar decompression surgery.Patient Sample: This was a retrospective study at two academic medical centers and three community medical centers including adult patients 18 years or older undergoing one or two level posterior decompression for lumbar disc herniation or lumbar spinal stenosis between January 1, 2016 and April 1, 2019.Outcome Measures: The primary outcome, MCID, was defined using distribution-based methods as one half the standard deviation of postoperative patient-reported outcomes (PROMIS physical function, pain interference, pain intensity).Methods: Five machine learning algorithms were developed to predict MCID on these surveys and assessed by discrimination, calibration, Brier score, and decision curve analysis. The final model was incorporated into an open access digital application.Results: Overall, 906 patients completed at least one PROMs survey in the 90 days before surgery and at least one PROMs survey in the year after surgery. Attainment of MCID during the study period by PROMIS instrument was 74.3% for physical function, 75.8% for pain interference, and 79.2% for pain intensity. Factors identified for preoperative prediction of MCID attainment on these outcomes included preoperative PROs, percent unemployment in neighborhood of residence, comorbidities, body mass index, private insurance, preoperative opioid use, surgery for disc herniation, and federal poverty level in neighborhood of residence. The discrimination (c-statistic) of the final algorithms for these outcomes was 0.79 for physical function, 0.74 for pain interference, and 0.69 for pain intensity with good calibration. The open access digital application for these algorithms can be found here: https://sorg-apps.shinyapps.io/promis_pld_mcid/ CONCLUSION: Lower preoperative PROMIS scores, fewer comorbidities, and certain sociodemographic factors increase the likelihood of achieving MCID for PROMIS after lumbar spine decompression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]