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Purpose: To define the risk of curve progression of idiopathic scoliosis (IS) to 35°, 40°, 45°, and 50° based on current curve magnitude and Sanders stage for boys and girls, using a large cohort of patients and encounters, to improve granularity and allow more accurate estimations to guide treatment., Methods: Retrospective analysis of a prospectively collected scoliosis database. Generalized estimation equation logistic regression models estimated probabilities of curve progression to 35°, 40°, 45°, and 50° based on starting curve size and Sanders stage. Probabilities and their 95% confidence intervals were calculated for each combination of variables to each endpoint separately for boys and girls., Results: A total of 309 patients (80% girls) were included. Starting curve size and Sanders stage were significant predictors for progression in both sexes (all P ≤ 0.04). Higher starting curve sizes and lower Sanders stages were associated with greater odds of progression. Risk of progression was still present even at higher Sanders stages., Conclusion: IS curves follow a predictable pattern, having more risk for progression when curves are larger and Sanders stages are smaller. Risk of curve progression is a spectrum based on these factors, indicating some risk of progression exists even for many smaller curves with higher Sanders stages. The improved granularity of this analysis compared to prior efforts may be useful for counseling patients about the risks of curve progression to various curve size endpoints and may aid shared decision-making regarding treatments., Level of Evidence or Clinical Relevance: Level III: retrospective cohort study., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Scoliosis Research Society.)

Purpose: Since the introduction of vertebral body tethering (VBT) for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS), a variety of post-operative chest drainage systems have been utilized. Most surgeons use formal chest tubes with a Pleur-evac, while others use smaller bulb suction drains (e.g., Blake drain). In addition, some centers utilize pleural closure. This multicenter study evaluates whether drain type or pleural closure impact perioperative and 90 day complication rates., Methods: A retrospective review was conducted from three institutions with established VBT programs. All preoperative, perioperative and 90 day postoperative data were analyzed to determine differences in outcomes between three cohorts: standard chest tube (SCT), standard chest tube with pleural closure (SCTPC) and 10 French Bulb drain (BD)., Results: 104 patients were identified for the study. 57 SCT, 25 SCTPC and 22 BD. All data are listed in order: SCT, SCTPC, BD. Length of stay (3.7, 4.3, 3.0 days) was less in the BD group (p = 0.009); post-operative drainage (460, 761, 485 cc) was less in the SCT and BD groups (p < 0.001); intra-operative estimated blood loss (EBL) 146, 382, 64 cc was less in the BD group (p < 0.001). No significant difference in number of days (3.2, 3.2, and 2.8 days) drainage was in place, groups (p = 0.311). Complication profile was similar with 2 chest tube reinsertions in the SCT and one hemothorax that resolved spontaneously in BD group., Conclusions: In this series of 104 patients, SCT, SCTPC and BD all had a similar safety profile. All three methods were safe and effective in managing post-operative chest drainage after thoracic VBT. In the series, BD group had significantly shorter LOS than both groups that used chest tubes., Level of Evidence: Level III, Retrospective cohort study., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Scoliosis Research Society.)