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Copyright of Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences is the property of Editorial Department of Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences is the property of Editorial Department of Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences is the property of Editorial Department of Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences is the property of Editorial Department of Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

【Objective】 Taking Aksu region in Xinjiang as the research object, the paper aimed to discuss the land use change in Aksu region in the future 2030. 【Method】The plus model was used to simulate the land use in Aksu region under three different scenarios, namely natural development scenario, economic development scenario and ecological protection scenario, revealing the future land use situation in Aksu region in 2030. Then, under the extreme development conditions of the above three scenarios, the study tried to use the mop model to put forward the sustainable development scenario, and optimized the spatial structure of multiple scenarios on the regional scale. 【Result】In the natural development scenario of Aksu region in 2030, the increase of cultivated land and bare land will be the main way of land conversion. The conversion between cultivated land, grassland, artificial surface and bare land will be the main way of land conversion under the natural development scenario. Except for the stability of shrubland and glacier, the area of forest land, grassland, wetland, water body and artificial surface will decrease. The setting of economic development scenario was to make the rapid expansion of cultivated land and artificial surface reached the goal of optimal economic benefits. Cultivated land was mainly transformed from a large number of grasslands and bare land, while the increase of artificial surface was transformed from cultivated land, bare land, grassland, forest land and water. The added value of cultivated land and artificial surface under this scenario was the first in the three simulation scenarios. The purpose of the ecological protection scenario was to protect the ecological land in Aksu region. The ecological land under this scenario had the highest added value compared with the first two scenarios. The sustainable development scenario proposed on this basis was a trade-off between the above three scenarios, that was, an optimal land use allocation scheme. 【Conclusion】The future land use pattern can not be developed only by a single indicator, and sustainable land use can only be achieved by balancing economic, ecological and other factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences is the property of Editorial Department of Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences is the property of Editorial Department of Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences is the property of Editorial Department of Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences is the property of Editorial Department of Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences is the property of Editorial Department of Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences is the property of Editorial Department of Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)