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The purpose of this paper is to analyse the causality between exports and GDP of Namibia and to evaluate the relationship of these variables for the period 1970 to 2005. Time-series econometric techniques (Granger causality and cointegration) are applied to test the hypothesis of a growth strategy led by exports. It tests whether export Granger causes GDP, or whether the causality runs from GDP to exports, or if there is bi-directional causality between exports and GDP. The results revealed that exports Granger cause GDP and GDP per capita. This suggests that the export-led growth strategy through various incentives has a positive influence on growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mauritius is often cited by international institutions, including the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, as a success story in economic development. The island has, since the early 1970s, adopted an export-led growth strategy to power its economy. However, a constant decline over the last decade in the exports to gross domestic product ( GDP) ratio has resulted in a worsening current account to GDP ratio, which is now a cause for concern. Using a three-regime, self-exciting threshold autoregressive ( SETAR) model, this paper finds that the Mauritian economy may converge to either of two current account equilibria, namely a deficit of 9% or a surplus of 2.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis. A dynamic simulation exercise suggests that the Mauritian current account is more likely to switch from surplus to deficit equilibrium than from deficit to surplus equilibrium. Given that the prevailing deficit is in the vicinity of the deficit equilibrium, structural policies aiming to boost productivity and efficiency are indispensable for pulling Mauritius out of the 'deficit trap,' the more so since the island has been experiencing a continuous erosion of trade preferences, which formerly enabled it to have privileged access for its exports to the EU market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically studies the relationship between public debt and economic growth for selected emerging market economies by performing panel data estimations. The results reveal a statistically significant positive correlation between public debt and the subsequent growth rate of per capita gross domestic product ( GDP). Population and investment are also positively correlated with per capita growth, whereas the initial level of real GDP per capita exerts a negative influence on growth, implying conditional convergence. Other variables such as the inflation rate, the trade balance or the exchange rate do not yield a statistically significant effect with respect to economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In examining some big questions on African development, I provide evidence that the dynamics of some development indicators could support both endogenous and neoclassical growth theories in the convergence debate. This paper investigates convergence in real per capita gross domestic product and inequality-adjusted human development in 38 African countries, disaggregated into 10 homogenous panels based on regions ( Sub- Saharan and North Africa), income levels (low, middle, lower middle and upper middle), legal origins ( English common law and French civil law) and religious dominations ( Christianity and Islam). The main finding is that the income component of the Human Development Index moves slower than others in the convergence process, and thus requires a more focused policy intervention. As a policy implication, looking beyond income convergence can provide a concrete agenda for development involving all aspects of economic, institutional and social life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper applies a factor-augmented Markov-switching model to the South African economy to provide an alternative classification of the business cycle and its turning points. In the principal components step, 123 variables are used to establish the aggregate cyclicality in all sectors of the economy with the number of factors chosen using a modified Bai and Ng method. By exploiting the rich nature of the dataset, we provide a model with well-defined statistical properties that compares favourably with the South African Reserve Bank ( SARB) dating points. Combining the results of the parametric approach followed in the Markov-switching model and the non-parametric approach followed by the SARB should allow for a robust turning point analysis. A Markov-switching model of real gross domestic product is also estimated because this variable is commonly used in the literature and provides a benchmark for the factor models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foreign trade matters considerably more than ever in today's integrated economies, and the wealth of benefits afforded by air transport is one of the cornerstones of international trade. Therefore, to shed light on the precise role of air cargo, seen as an important motor of growth, this paper provides an empirical model to examine the relationships among trade openness, air freight volume and GDP per capita using panel cointegration techniques for a sample of Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) countries during the 1970-2002 period. The analysis substantiates that there are cointegrated relationships among the three variables and that they are bound together in a long-run equilibrium. Furthermore, evidence from fully modified Ordinary Least Squares panel estimations also indicates that positive trade and air freight shocks contribute to real GDP per capita. In addition, improvements in air cargo services are accompanied by an increase in trade openness in ECA countries and vice versa. These results underscore the important role of air freight and demonstrate that it should not have been overlooked in earlier studies. Finally, the empirical findings have important policy implications for our sample countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses long-term trends in the development of South Africa's economic infrastructure and discusses their relationship with the country's long-term economic growth. A database covering national accounts data, railways, roads, ports, air travel, phone lines and electricity was established for this purpose, and may facilitate further quantitative research. PSS (Pesaran, Shin and Smith, 1996, 2001) F-tests are used to identify directions of association between economic infrastructure and economic growth. These indicate long-run forcing relationships from public-sector economic infrastructure investment and fixed capital stock to gross domestic product (GDP), from roads to GDP, and from GDP to a range of other types of infrastructure. There is also evidence of potential simultaneity between specific types of infrastructure and GDP. The evidence suggests three main findings. Firstly, the relationship between economic infrastructure and economic growth appears to run in both directions. Inadequate investment in infrastructure could create bottlenecks, and opportunities for promoting economic growth could be missed. Secondly, South Africa's stock of economic infrastructure has developed in phases. Policymakers should focus on choosing or encouraging the right type of infrastructure at the right time. Thirdly, the need for investment in economic infrastructure never goes away. The maintenance and expansion of infrastructure are important dimensions of supporting economic activity in a growing economy, provided that individual projects are chosen on the basis of appropriate cost-benefit analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We consider the relative empirical performance of a range of inflation models for South Africa. Model coverage is of Phillips curve, New Keynesian Phillips curve, monetarist and structural models of inflation. Our core findings are that the single most robust covariate of inflation is unit labour cost. We further decompose unit labour cost into changes in the nominal wage and real labour productivity. The principal association is a strong positive relationship between inflation and nominal wages, while improvements in real labour productivity report only a relatively weak negative association with inflation. Supply‐side shocks also consistently report an association with inflation. As to demand‐side shocks, the output gap does not return a robust statistical association with inflation. Instead, it is growth in the money supply and government expenditure which return robust and theoretically consistent associations with inflationary pressure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I use satellite imagery on night-time lights to measure growth across states and local government areas in Nigeria since the return of democracy in 1999. The data suggest that states in southern Nigeria have grown faster on average than states in the north. Using the Ordinary Least Squares, I estimate a relationship between change in night lights and real gross domestic product ( GDP) growth in Africa and use the coefficients to estimate GDP growth for states and local government areas in Nigeria over the period. Finally, I evaluate the effects of violence on growth in Plateau, Yobe and Borno states. I find that the crisis in Plateau state has resulted in slower growth compared with other states in the region. I also show that Yobe and Borno states had performed worse than other states in the north even before the outbreak of violence related to the Boko Haram sect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of exchange rate signals in an economy is very powerful and often pervasive. Moreover, sustained real exchange rate overvaluation will, by distorting resource allocation away from productive activities, eventually lead to drastic adjustments of relative prices and reduction of aggregate economic growth. However, the direct theoretical and empirical link between exchange rate misalignment and macroeconomic indicators still remains to be fully understood. Nonetheless, empirical studies continue to make attempts to understand this relationship by exploring relationships that incorporate different measures of exchange rate misalignment in traditional growth regression models. Based on a behavioural equilibrium exchange rate derived measure exchange rate misalignment, this paper presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between real gross domestic product growth and real exchange rate misalignment for Zimbabwe. After controlling for other structural and policy variables, the main findings demonstrate that exchange rate misalignment exerts a negative and highly statistically significant impact on growth. Overall, the results lend support to the hypothesis that chronic real exchange rate overvaluation was a key fundamental behind the post-2000 economic growth contraction in Zimbabwe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyse the relationship between public debt, economic growth and inflation in a group of 52 African economies between 1950 and 2012. The results indicate that the limits of public debt are negatively related to economic growth and exhibit, from a given level of debt, an inverted U behaviour regarding the relationship between economic growth and public debt. Briefly, the high levels of public debt are coincident with reduced rates of economic growth and rising levels of inflation. Our results for three specific geographical areas resemble those of the overall analysis, despite some differences. In North African countries, the growth rates of the gross domestic product ( GDP) and inflation also show an inverted U behaviour as the ratio of public debt/ GDP increases. The highest rate of economic growth is recorded when the ratio of public debt/ GDP is below 30% of GDP and corresponds to an average inflation rate of 5.33%. An identical behaviour of the GDP growth rates and inflation also appears in Sub-Saharan countries until the third interval (60-90%). However, the highest growth rate of the GDP and GDP per capita is registered when the public debt/ GDP ratio is in the second interval (30-60%). For the countries of the Southern Africa Development Community, the highest average rate of economic growth (6.8%) is similar to North African countries, when the ratio public debt/ GDP is below 30% of GDP, with an average inflation rate of 11%. A number of robustness analyses were performed and the great majority of them confirm the general analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New estimates of the gross domestic product of the Dutch Cape Colony (1652-1795) suggest that the Cape was one of the most prosperous regions during the eighteenth century. This stands in sharp contrast to the perceived view that the Cape was an 'economic and social backwater,' a slave economy with slow growth and little progress. Following a national accounts framework, we find that Cape settlers' per capita income is similar to the most prosperous countries of the time - Holland and England. We trace the roots of this result, showing that it is partly explained by a highly skewed population structure and very low dependency ratio of slavery, and attempt to link the eighteenth-century Cape Colony experience to twentieth-century South African income levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A sustainable fiscal policy means that the public debt/GDP ratio remains stable over the medium to long term. If the real interest rate exceeds the real economic growth rate, the neoclassical prescription for fiscal sustainability requires government to run a sufficiently sized primary surplus in the medium to long term and not to dissave on average. The IMF, international investors and sovereign credit rating agencies use this neoclassical prescription as a measure of country risk. To create an environment friendly to foreign investors, the new South African government has, since it came to power in 1994, reduced the conventional budget deficit to below three percent of GDP to stabilise the debt/GDP ratio.