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Lahars represent some of the most dangerous phenomena in volcanic areas for their destructive power, causing dramatic changes in the landscape with no premonitory signs and impacting the population and infrastructure. In this regard, the Campanian Plain turns out to be very prone to the development of these phenomena, since the slopes of the Somma–Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei volcanoes, along with the Apennine reliefs, are mantled by pyroclastic deposits that can be easily remobilized, especially after intense and/or prolonged rainfall. This study focuses on the analysis of pyroclastic fall and flow deposits and of the syn- and post-eruptive lahar deposits related to two sub-Plinian eruptions of Vesuvius in 472 CE (Pollena) and 1631. To begin with, historical and field data from the existing literature and from hundreds of outcrops were collected and organized into a database, which was integrated with several new pieces of data. In particular, stratigraphic, sedimentological (facies analysis and laboratory), and archeological analyses were carried out, in addition to rock magnetic investigations and impact parameter calculations. The new data are also referenced to the finding of ash beds in more distal areas, which were included in new isopach maps for the two sub-Plinian eruptions. The results show that for both eruptions the distribution of the primary deposits is wider than previously known. A consequence of these results is that a wider areal impact should be expected in terms of civil protection, as the sub-Plinian scenario is the reference one for a future large eruption of Vesuvius. Such a distribution of the pyroclastic deposits directly affects the one of the lahar deposits, also because a significant remobilization took place during and after the studied eruptions, which involved distal phreatomagmatic ash. From these integrated analyses, it was possible to constrain the timing of the deposition and the kind of deposits remobilized (pyroclastic fall vs. flow), and it was possible to calculate the velocities and dynamic pressures of the lahars and ultimately infer the lahar transport and emplacement mechanisms. The multidisciplinary approach adopted in this work shows how it is crucial to assess the impact of lahars in densely populated areas even at distances of several to tens of kilometers from active volcanoes. This especially applies to large parts of the densely populated areas around Somma–Vesuvius up to the nearby Apennine valleys. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study we present a novel general methodology for probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA) for lahars. We apply the methodology to perform a probabilistic assessment in the Campanian Plain (southern Italy), focusing on syn-eruptive lahars from a reference size eruption from Somma–Vesuvius. We take advantage of new field data relative to volcaniclastic flow deposits in the target region (Di Vito et al., 2024b) and recent improvements in modelling lahars (de' Michieli Vitturi et al., 2024). The former allowed defining proper probability density functions for the parameters related to the flow initial conditions, and the latter allowed computationally faster model runs. In this way, we are able to explore the effects of uncertainty in the initial flow conditions on the invasion of lahars in the target area by sampling coherent sets of values for the input model parameters and performing a large number of simulations. We also account for the uncertainty in the position of lahar generation by running the analysis on 11 different catchments threatening the Campanian Plain. The post-processing of the simulation outputs led to the production of hazard curves for the maximum flow thickness reached on a grid of points covering the Campanian Plain. By cutting the hazard curves at selected threshold values, we produce a portfolio of hazard maps and probability maps for the maximum flow thickness. We also produce hazard surface and probability maps for the simultaneous exceeding of pairs of thresholds in flow thickness and dynamic pressure. The latter hazard products represent, on one hand, a novel product in PVHA for lahars and, on the other hand, a useful means of impact assessment by assigning a probability to the occurrence of lahars that simultaneously have a relevant flow thickness and large dynamic pressure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we present a new model for the simulation of lahars based on the depth-averaged code IMEX-SfloW2D with new governing and constitutive equations introduced to better describe the dynamics of lahars. A thorough sensitivity analysis is carried out to identify the critical processes (such as erosion and deposition) and parameters (both numerical and physical) controlling lahar runout using both synthetic and real case topographies. In particular, an application of the model to a syn-eruptive lahar from a reference size eruption from Somma–Vesuvius, affecting the Campanian Plain (southern Italy), described in Di Vito et al. (2024), is used in this work for the sensitivity analysis. Effects of erosion and deposition are investigated by comparing simulations with and without these processes. By comparing flow thickness and area covered by the flow and their evolution with time, we show that the modelling of both the processes is important to properly simulate the effects of the bulking and debulking as well as the associated changes in rheology. From a computational point of view, the comparisons of simulations obtained for different numerical grids (from 25 to 100 m), scheme order, and grain size discretization were useful to find a good compromise between resolution and computational speed. The companion paper by Sandri et al. (2024) shows an application of the presented model for probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment for lahars from Vesuvius deposits in the Neapolitan area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]