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We examine changes in the level of physical health using longitudinal data on people aged 50+ from nine European countries covering the years from 2004 to 2017. For this purpose we develop a novel approach to identify age, period and cohort effects, which, in contrast to methods relying on mechanical restrictions, uses a step-wise estimation combining information on physical health with data on cognitive abilities. The approach relies on two important assumptions. First, we estimate relative differences between cohorts in cognitive abilities assuming that only age and cohort effects are responsible for their evolution. We then use the estimated proportional cohort differences to restrict the differences between cohorts in health development. The method is applied to the dynamics of four measures of poor health: weak grip strength, limitations in mobility, in activities of daily living (ADL) and in instrumental activities of daily living (IADL). Our results suggest insignificant or adverse period effects for the evolution of physical health. For example, the difference in likelihood of poor health as measured through weak grip strength between 2004 and 2017 is 2.1 percentage points, p.p., (95% CI -4.3, 8.4), and the corresponding numbers for the other three measures are respectively: 2.0 p.p. (CI -1.6, 5.6); 2.2 p.p. (CI -0.2, 4.7) and 3.0 p.p. (CI 0.3, 5.8). These estimates, which reflect the implications of time over the period of 14 years, are relatively low, but they highlight the surprising fact that any improvements in health in the examined period have been driven essentially by cohort effects. Our evidence is consistent with some earlier studies and sheds new light on recent (pre-pandemic) trends in life expectancy. It also raises questions concerning efficacy of healthcare and equal access to high quality care – the factors one would consider as important determinants of period effects in health. • We propose a step-wise approach to identify age-period-cohort effects in health. • Data on dynamics of cognitive abilities is used in the identification process. • We find insignificant or negative effects of time for health development in Europe. • Results may be a signal reflecting required policy changes in European healthcare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although several studies have demonstrated the associations between lifetime cumulative adversity and late-life physical health, many of them were conducted at a single time point and examined events that occurred in childhood only. Less is known about the effect of lifelong adversity on the aging process over time. This study aimed to investigate the impact of cumulative adversity on the accelerated deterioration in health over time - mobility limitation and self-rated state of health in old age. This study provides a 14-year, 6-time-point follow-up on a representative sample of Europeans using the SHARE Project - longitudinal survey panel. The sample included a total of 7195 respondents aged 65 and older from nine countries in Europe. The outcome measurements were the number of mobility limitations and self-rated health – trajectories along 6 measurements. The independent variable was Lifetime Cumulative Adversity, and the analyses included also control variables – age, gender, socioeconomic status, depression, and country. Time-based Latent Growth Curve Modeling has demonstrated that the effects of Lifetime Cumulative Adversity were significant on both health measures, by means of the intercepts and the slopes: Greater experience of adversities correlated with a higher physical health impairment at baseline and a higher decline along time. The effects of self-rated health were weaker than the effects of mobility limitations. Given that the populations of numerous countries are rapidly aging, understanding the risk factors associated with health deterioration is important, especially for policymakers and medical health care experts, to raise awareness of the relationship between lifelong adversity and health decline and to build preventive interventions to deal with these consequences. • Evaluated a 14-year growth model of cumulative adversity and late-life physical health. • Used Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe as database. • Higher cumulative adversity was related to an accelerated decline in health. • The effects on mobility limitation were stronger than self-rated health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]