1. Estimating the syphilis epidemic among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men in Australia following changes in HIV care and prevention
- Author
-
Anna L. Wilkinson, David Wilson, Mark Stoove, Carol El-Hayek, Phillip Luong, Norman Roth, Tom Tidhar, Christopher K Fairley, David E Leslie, Lei Zhang, B K Tee, Margaret Hellard, and Nick Scott
- Subjects
Male ,Victoria ,media_common.quotation_subject ,HIV Infections ,HIV Serosorting ,Men who have sex with men ,law.invention ,Condoms ,03 medical and health sciences ,Pre-exposure prophylaxis ,Sexual and Gender Minorities ,0302 clinical medicine ,Condom ,law ,Medicine ,Humans ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Homosexuality ,Syphilis ,Homosexuality, Male ,Epidemics ,media_common ,030505 public health ,business.industry ,Transmission (medicine) ,Coinfection ,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health ,Australia ,Models, Theoretical ,medicine.disease ,Infectious Diseases ,Serodiscordant ,Bisexuality ,Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis ,0305 other medical science ,business ,Delivery of Health Care ,Demography - Abstract
Background Syphilis control remains a challenge in many high-income countries, including Australia, where diagnoses are concentrated among gay, bisexual men and other men who have sex with men (GBM). The aim of this study is to project the syphilis epidemic among GBM under a range of scenarios. Methods:A dynamic coinfection model of HIV and syphilis transmission among GBM in Victoria, Australia, was parametrised to test data from clinics in Melbourne and syphilis case notifications in Victoria. Projected outcomes were new syphilis infections between 2018 and 2025 under seven testing and behaviour change scenarios. Results:Among HIV-negative GBM, the model estimated that increasing syphilis testing coverage (69% – 75%) and frequency (~8-monthly – 6-monthly) could prevent 5% and 13% of syphilis cases respectively between 2018 and 2025 compared to the status quo. Among HIV-positive GBM, less syphilis testing due to changes in HIV care increased syphilis cases by 29% between 2018 and 2025 compared to the status quo. Under a scenario of 20% HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) coverage among HIV-negative GBM (and associated increased serodiscordant sex, reduced condom use and increased syphilis testing), syphilis cases were estimated to decrease by 6% among HIV-negative GBM and by 3% among HIV-positive GBM compared to the status quo, driven by increased testing among PrEP users. Conclusion:The present study findings support syphilis control policies focusing on increased testing among GBM. Current Australian PrEP guidelines of quarterly syphilis testing are likely to negate any increases in syphilis due to risk compensation occurring with PrEP scale-up.
- Published
- 2018