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Eels migrate along largely unknown routes to their spawning ground. By coupling Zermelo's navigation solution and data from the Japan Coastal Ocean Predictability Experiment 2 (JCOPE2M), we simulated a range of seasonal scenarios, swimming speeds, and swimming depths to predict paths that minimize migration duration and energy cost. Our simulations predict a trade-off between migration duration and energy cost. Given that eels do not refuel during their migration, our simulations suggest eels should travel at speeds of 0.4-0.6 body-length per second to retain enough energy reserves for reproduction. For real eels without full information of the ocean currents, they cannot optimize their migration in strong surface currents, thus when swimming at slow swimming speeds, they should swim at depths of 200 m or greater. Eels swimming near the surface are also influenced by seasonal factors, however, migrating at greater depths mitigates these effects. While greater depths present more favorable flow conditions, water temperature may become increasingly unfavorable, dropping near or below 5 °C. Our results serve as a benchmark, demonstrating the complex interplay between swimming speed, depth, seasonal factors, migration time, and energy consumption, to comprehend the migratory behaviors of Japanese eels and other migratory fish., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Marine hazards often occur unexpectedly. Long-term (> few weeks) projections are sometimes needed to predict the potential route of drifting targets (e.g. pumice, oil, shipwreck) in order to prevent further disaster, yet reliable long-term forecast data may be unavailable. The present study examined the long-term projection of pumice dispersion originating from the 2021 submarine eruption of Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba volcano, Japan, based on hindcast reanalysis of the past 28 years of wind and ocean currents using the particle tracking method. The ensemble distribution showed a wide dispersion, which was dominated by the ocean currents. By contrast, wind provided a relatively uniform transport. Apart from the prevailing wind, typhoons also play a role in affecting pumice dispersion. The multi-year simulation provides a general view of pumice dispersion accounting for different uncertainty, which could be used for deducing the potential dispersion under different wind and ocean conditions., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Non-structural protein 15 (Nsp15) of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) forms a homo hexamer and functions as an endoribonuclease. Here, we propose that Nsp15 activity may be inhibited by preventing its hexamerization through drug binding. We first explored the stable conformation of the Nsp15 monomer as the global free energy minimum conformation in the free energy landscape using a combination of parallel cascade selection molecular dynamics (PaCS-MD) and the Markov state model (MSM), and found that the Nsp15 monomer forms a more open conformation with larger druggable pockets on the surface. Targeting the pockets with high druggability scores, we conducted ligand docking and identified compounds that tightly bind to the Nsp15 monomer. The top poses with Nsp15 were subjected to binding free energy calculations by dissociation PaCS-MD and MSM (dPaCS-MD/MSM), indicating the stability of the complexes. One of the identified pockets, which is distinctively bound by inosine analogues, may be an alternative binding site to stabilize viral RNA binding and/or an alternative catalytic site. We constructed a stable RNA structure model bound to both UTP and alternative binding sites, providing a reasonable proposed model of the Nsp15/RNA complex., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

The Sargasso Sea has long been considered as the only spawning area for Atlantic eels, despite the absence of direct observations. The present study raises a novel scenario, deviating from Schmidt's dogma, begins with a review of historical and recent observations that were combined to build up a global theory on spawning ecology and migration behavior of Atlantic eels. From this, it is argued that a favorable spawning area could be located eastward of Sargasso Sea at the intersection between the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and the oceanic fronts. Ocean circulation models combined with 3D particle-tracking method confirmed that spawning at this specific area would result in larval distribution fitting the field observation. This study explores the hypothesis that leptocephali are able to swim and orientate to reach their specific growth areas. It proposes a novel framework about spawning ecology, based on orientation, navigation and meeting cues of silver eels to the spawning area. Together this framework may serve as a stepping-stone for solving the long-lasting mystery of eel reproduction which first came out 2,400 years ago and promotes the understanding of oceanic migration and reproduction of marine organisms.

The out of phase tropical cyclone (TC) formation in the subtropical and tropical western North Pacific associated with local low-level wind vorticity anomaly, driven by the remote central and eastern equatorial Pacific warming/cooling, is investigated based on the reanalysis and observational data in the period of 1979-2017. TC frequencies in the subtropical and tropical western North Pacific appear to be connected to different remote heating/cooling sources and are linked to eastern and central Pacific warming/cooling, which are in turn related to canonical El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and ENSO Modoki, respectively. TCs formed in subtropics (SfTC) are generally found to be associated with a dipole in wind vorticity anomaly, which is driven by the tropical eastern Pacific warming/cooling. Tropically formed TCs (TfTC) are seen to be triggered by the single-core of wind vorticity anomaly locally associated with the warming/cooling of central and eastern Pacific. The predicted ENSOs and ENSO Modokis, therefore, provide a potential source of seasonal predictability for SfTC and TfTC frequencies.

Western boundary currents in the subtropics play a pivotal role in transporting warm water from the tropics that contribute to development of highly diverse marine ecosystem in the coastal regions. As one of the western boundary currents in the North Pacific, the Kuroshio Current (hereafter the Kuroshio) exerts great influences on biological resource variability off southwest Japan, but few studies have examined physical processes that attribute the coastal fish resource variability to the basin-scale Kuroshio variability. Using the high-quality fish catch data and high-resolution ocean reanalysis results, this study identifies statistical links of interannual fish resource variability off Sukumo Bay, Shikoku island of Japan, to subsurface ocean temperature variability in the Kuroshio. The subsurface ocean temperature variability off the south of Sukumo Bay exhibits vertically coherent structure with sea-surface height variability, which originates from the westward-propagating oceanic Rossby waves generated through surface wind anomalies in the Northwest Pacific. Although potential sources of the atmospheric variability remain unclarified, the remotely-induced oceanic Rossby waves contribute to fish resource variability off Sukumo Bay. These findings have potential applications to other coastal regions along the western boundary currents in the subtropics where the westward-propagating oceanic Rossby waves may contribute to coastal ocean temperature variability.

An atmospheric component of the Philippine-Taiwan Oscillations (PTOa) is used to examine its potential connection with tropical cyclone (TC) frequency in the western North Pacific in the period of 1979-2014. During positive PTOa years, more TCs are observed in the tropical western Pacific south of 18 °N where cyclonic wind anomaly appears. On the other hand, anti-cyclonic wind anomaly appears in the subtropics north of 18 °N and is associated with less TC formation there. The opposite wind vorticities in tropics/subtropics and associated variability in TC frequency reverse in negative PTOa phase. Besides, the negative contribution of ocean heat content suggests the relative importance of wind vorticity according to the oceanic cyclone genesis potential index. The PTOa provides a more direct explanation of the TC activity compared to other remotely linked phenomena at least for the past 36 years (1979-2014). Therefore, PTOa can potentially serve as a promising index for diagnosing or forecasting TC activity in the western North Pacific Ocean.

Recruitment of Japanese eels, Anguilla japonica, has declined in recent decades possibly due to both anthropogenic and ocean-atmosphere factors. The potential impact of ocean circulation on the decreasing Japanese eel catches in the western North Pacific was examined based on a three-dimensional particle-tracking method, in which virtual larvae (v-larvae) were programmed to swim horizontally and vertically, in addition to being transported by ocean currents after being released in their North Equatorial Current (NEC) spawning area. Transport patterns varied among years between 1993 and 2013, and dispersion of v-larvae towards East Asia decreased in the last two decades, especially for the western Taiwan and Japan regions. In recent years, instead of entering the Kuroshio and moving towards East Asia as in the 1990s', more v-larvae tended to enter the southern areas due to the weakening of the NEC and strengthening of subsurface southward flow near the spawning area. Changes in ocean circulation in the western Pacific appear to be caused by the weakening of subtropical and tropical wind stress curl in the past two decades. This suggests that decadal changes in ocean circulation have occurred that affect the larval migration success of the Japanese eel to their recruitment areas.

The physical and biological roles of mesoscale eddies in Japanese eel larvae dispersal are investigated using a three-dimensional (3D) particle-tracking method, with a focus on the Subtropical Counter Current eddies of the western North Pacific Ocean. Virtual eel larvae (v-larvae) movements depends on the 3D ocean currents and active swimming behavior, including vertical swimming (diel vertical migration), horizontal directional swimming toward settlement habitat, and horizontal swimming toward available food. V-larvae are able to remain in eddies passively due to mesoscale eddy nonlinearity and/or actively due to attraction to rich food supplies. Thus, both physical trapping and biological attraction to food contribute to the retention of v-larvae in eddies. Physical trapping dominates the retention of v-larvae whose swimming speeds are slower than the eddy propagation speed, whereas biological food attraction prevails in the retention of v-larvae swimming faster than eddy propagation. Food availability differs between warm (anti-cyclonic) and cold (cyclonic) eddies, with the latter providing a richer food supply. Fish larvae that are retained for longer durations in cold eddies (shorter durations in warm eddies) are able to obtain more food and potentially grow faster, which enhances survival rates.

At the present time, ocean current is being operationally monitored mainly by combined use of numerical ocean nowcast/forecast models and satellite remote sensing data. Improvement in the accuracy of the ocean current nowcast/forecast requires additional measurements with higher spatial and temporal resolution as expected from the current observation network. Here we show feasibility of assimilating high-resolution seabird and ship drift data into an operational ocean forecast system. Data assimilation of geostrophic current contained in the observed drift leads to refinement in the gyre mode events of the Tsugaru warm current in the north-eastern sea of Japan represented by the model. Fitting the observed drift to the model depends on ability of the drift representing geostrophic current compared to that representing directly wind driven components. A preferable horizontal scale of 50 km indicated for the seabird drift data assimilation implies their capability of capturing eddies with smaller horizontal scale than the minimum scale of 100 km resolved by the satellite altimetry. The present study actually demonstrates that transdisciplinary approaches combining bio-/ship- logging and numerical modeling could be effective for enhancement in monitoring the ocean current.