1. Alarming coastal vulnerability of the deltaic and sandy beaches of North Africa
- Author
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Mohamed Maanan, Gil Mahé, Essam Heggy, Abderraouf Hzami, Oula Amrouni, Saâdi Abdeljaouad, Université de Tunis El Manar (UTM), University of Southern California (USC), Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NASA-California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), Université de Carthage - University of Carthage, Hydrosciences Montpellier (HSM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Montpellier 2 - Sciences et Techniques (UM2)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique (LETG - Nantes), Institut de Géographie et d'Aménagement Régional de l'Université de Nantes (IGARUN), Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2), Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), California Institute of Technology (CALTECH)-NASA, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Géographie et d'Aménagement Régional de l'Université de Nantes (IGARUN), and Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Nantes (UN)
- Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Vulnerability index ,Science ,Population ,010502 geochemistry & geophysics ,01 natural sciences ,Article ,Vulnerability assessment ,Effects of global warming ,Marine ecosystem ,14. Life underwater ,[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment ,education ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,education.field_of_study ,Multidisciplinary ,Coastal hazards ,Global warming ,Natural hazards ,[SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography ,15. Life on land ,Arid ,Environmental social sciences ,Oceanography ,Geography ,Ocean sciences ,13. Climate action ,Medicine ,Climate sciences - Abstract
The arid coasts of North Africa, extending over 4633 km from the Gulf of Tunis to the Nile Delta, are undergoing pronounced shoreline retreats and coastal floodings that are reported as a consequence of the ongoing sea level rise resulting from global warming. Of particular interest are the abnormal shoreline dynamics for deltaic and sandy beaches, which are severely impacted by abrupt decadal variabilities in both climatic and anthropogenic drivers resulting in their increased vulnerability to disturbances from coastal hazards. Unfortunately, the evolution, distribution and impacts of these drivers remain largely unquantified, let alone understood, for these extensive arid coasts that harbor the major portion of North Africa’s population as well as unique and fragile marine ecosystems. To address this deficiency, we use GIS-based multi-criteria approaches combined with analytic hierarchy process to map the Coastal Vulnerability Index and the Socioeconomic Vulnerability Index along these coasts to investigate the amplitude and extent of shoreline deterioration resulting from sudden fluctuations in sediment transport to the coastline. We use the western bay of the Gulf of Tunis, the coasts of Tripoli and the Nile Delta as three validation sites for our vulnerability assessment. The statistical Integrated Coastal Vulnerability Index map reveals that 47% of arid North African coasts are characterized by high to very high vulnerability. In particular, we observe that the densely populated deltaic coasts in both Tunisia and Egypt are 70% more vulnerable than any others coast in the eastern Mediterranean Basin. These abnormally high-vulnerability extensive areas are also correlated with significant deterioration of coastal aquifers and hence in crop production, compromising local food security and resulting in increasing outflow migration trends. Both Tunisia and Egypt observed dramatic increases in the net population outflow migration by respectively 62% and 248% between 2000 and 2016, mostly from coastal areas. Our source analysis of the amplitude and extent of these high coastal vulnerabilities suggests that they result from the anthropogenic drivers of damming and rapid urban growth over the last few decades rather than the effects of global warming.
- Published
- 2021