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Abstract Predicting the therapeutic response to biologics before administration is a key clinical challenge in ulcerative colitis (UC). We previously reported a model for predicting the efficacy of vedolizumab (VDZ) for UC using a machine-learning approach. Ustekinumab (UST) is now available for treating UC, but no model for predicting its efficacy has been developed. When applied to patients with UC treated with UST, our VDZ prediction model showed positive predictive value (PPV) of 56.3% and negative predictive value (NPV) of 62.5%. Given this limited predictive ability, we aimed to develop a UST-specific prediction model with clinical features at baseline including background factors, clinical and endoscopic activity, and blood test results, as we did for the VDZ prediction model. The top 10 features (Alb, monocytes, height, MCV, TP, Lichtiger index, white blood cell count, MCHC, partial Mayo score, and CRP) associated with steroid-free clinical remission at 6 months after starting UST were selected using random forest. The predictive ability of a model using these predictors was evaluated by fivefold cross-validation. Validation of the prediction model with an external cohort showed PPV of 68.8% and NPV of 71.4%. Our study suggested the importance of establishing a drug-specific prediction model.

Abstract Tacrolimus therapy for ulcerative colitis is ineffective in certain patients; these patients require biologics or colectomy. We examined the ability of serum albumin levels and leukocyte subtypes to predict the therapeutic efficacy of tacrolimus. Patients with ulcerative colitis treated with tacrolimus were divided into non-failure and failure (required colectomy or switch to biologics or systemic steroids) groups. Serum albumin levels and leukocyte subtypes at induction, week 1, and week 2 after reaching high trough levels were retrospectively examined. Tacrolimus therapy failed in 18/45 patients within 3 months. The week 2/week 1 albumin ratio was significantly different between the failure and non-failure groups (P

Abstract In 2012, Japan approved the use of a tag-less patency capsule (PC), which evaluates gastrointestinal patency before small-bowel capsule endoscopy (SBCE). This study aimed to evaluate the validity of our modification on the passage criteria for this PC in clinical practice. We retrospectively enrolled 326 consecutive patients who underwent PC examination before SBCE. If X-ray could not reveal the PC in the body during the judgement time (30–33 h after ingestion), we defined it as ‘estimated patency’ and performed SBCE. We employed plain computed tomography (CT) for the second judgement, as needed. The overall patency rate was 95.1%. By X-ray, 41 (12.6%) patients were judged to have ‘estimated patency’, and SBCE could be safely performed. Plain CT judgement was necessary in 106 patients (32.5%). One PC case had a residual coating film associated with stenosis in a patient with Crohn’s disease (CD), and one (0.3%) SBCE case had capsule retention resulting from false CT judgement. Multivariate analysis revealed that established CD and inpatient were factors related to no-patency. In conclusion, PC is useful for examining gastrointestinal patency, keeping in mind CT misjudgement. If PC was not found in the body via X-ray, performing SBCE as ‘estimated patency’ seemed appropriate.

Abstract Predicting the response of patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) to a biologic such as vedolizumab (VDZ) before administration is an unmet need for optimizing individual patient treatment. We hypothesized that the machine-learning approach with daily clinical information can be a new, promising strategy for developing a drug-efficacy prediction tool. Random forest with grid search and cross-validation was employed in Cohort 1 to determine the contribution of clinical features at baseline (week 0) to steroid-free clinical remission (SFCR) with VDZ at week 22. Among 49 clinical features including sex, age, height, body weight, BMI, disease duration/phenotype, treatment history, clinical activity, endoscopic activity, and blood test items, the top eight features (partial Mayo score, MCH, BMI, BUN, concomitant use of AZA, lymphocyte fraction, height, and CRP) were selected for logistic regression to develop a prediction model for SFCR at week 22. In the validation using the external Cohort 2, the positive and negative predictive values of the prediction model were 54.5% and 92.3%, respectively. The prediction tool appeared useful for identifying patients with UC who would not achieve SFCR at week 22 during VDZ therapy. This study provides a proof-of-concept that machine learning using real-world data could permit personalized treatment for UC.

Abstract Prostaglandin E-major urinary metabolite (PGE-MUM) and C-reactive protein (CRP) are useful biomarkers in patients with ulcerative colitis. However, whether changes in endoscopic scores over time are reflected in the values of these biomarkers has not been verified. This prospective observational study aimed to assess the relationship between changes in biomarker levels and endoscopic scores in patients with ulcerative colitis. A total of 100 colonoscopy intervals of patients with ulcerative colitis were enrolled. The relationship between variations in the Mayo endoscopic subscore over time and the accompanying changes in biomarker values were investigated. PGE-MUM levels showed a significant rise in the increased endoscopic score group (P = 0.007) and a decrease with reduced endoscopic score group (P = 0.023). CRP levels showed a significant decline with lower endoscopic values (P

Abstract Cytomegalovirus (CMV) reactivation in the colon is common in patients with severe ulcerative colitis (UC). Ganciclovir (GCV) resistance conferring CMV UL97 gene mutations have been reported in recent years. However, the prevalence of UL97 gene mutations in GCV-naive CMV infection in the colon remains unknown. We investigated the prevalence of CMV UL97 gene mutations in patients with colonic CMV infection associated with or without UC. Twenty-two GCV-naive patients with colonic CMV infection, 15 with UC and 7 with other diseases, were enrolled. Frozen biopsy samples or formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded samples were used for nested polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification of the UL97 gene. Sanger DNA sequencing was performed. In comparison with AD169 reference strain, natural polymorphisms were frequently detected in codons N68D (100%), I244V (100%), and D605E (86.4%). Seven polymorphisms were detected infrequently (

Abstract We evaluated the association between endoscopic scores of colonic inflammation and fecal calprotectin (FC), fecal immunochemical occult blood test (FIT), and C-reactive protein (CRP) in patients with ulcerative colitis (UC). Endoscopic scores reflecting the most severe lesion [maximum Mayo Endoscopic Subscore (M-MES) and Ulcerative Colitis Endoscopic Index of Severity (UCEIS)] and those reflecting the inflammation of the entire colon [sum of MES (S-MES) and Ulcerative Colitis Colonoscopic Index of Severity (UCCIS)] were evaluated. FC, FIT, and CRP were measured, and their association with the four endoscopic scores was evaluated. Endoscopic scores of 78 complete colonoscopies (66 UC patients) were evaluated using the three biomarkers. FC and CRP tended to correlate more strongly with S-MES and UCCIS than with M-MES and UCEIS. In the M-MES 0, 1 group, compared to CRP, FC and FIT showed stronger correlations with S-MES and UCCIS. Conversely, in the M-MES 2, 3 group, only CRP was significantly correlated with each descriptor. CRP more strongly reflects colon-wide mucosal inflammation than FC and allows reliable assessment of inflammation throughout the colon in active UC.

Abstract The efficacy of sustained-release preparations of mesalazine as a remission maintenance treatment for Crohn's disease remains to be established. We aimed to examine the changes in compliance rate and clinical data 2 years after switching from mesalazine tablet to granule formulation at our facility among patients with Crohn's disease in remission. We investigated the rate of continuous treatment of mesalazine granules and examined the changes in Crohn’s Disease Activity Index (CDAI) and serum C-reactive protein (CRP), albumin, and hemoglobin (Hb) levels 2 years after the switch. Compliance rate (continuous treatment vs. additional treatment) and continuous treatment rate [good (rate of ≥ 70%) vs. poor (rate