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Initially, vanadium dioxide seems to be an ideal first-order phase transition case study due to its deceptively simple structure and composition, but upon closer inspection there are nuances to the driving mechanism of the metal-insulator transition (MIT) that are still unexplained. In this study, a local structure analysis across a bulk powder tungsten-substitution series is utilized to tease out the nuances of this first-order phase transition. A comparison of the average structure to the local structure using synchrotron x-ray diffraction and total scattering pair-distribution function methods, respectively, is discussed as well as comparison to bright field transmission electron microscopy imaging through a similar temperature-series as the local structure characterization. Extended x-ray absorption fine structure fitting of thin film data across the substitution-series is also presented and compared to bulk. Machine learning technique, non-negative matrix factorization, is applied to analyze the total scattering data. The bulk MIT is probed through magnetic susceptibility as well as differential scanning calorimetry. The findings indicate the local transition temperature ([Formula: see text]) is less than the average [Formula: see text] supporting the Peierls-Mott MIT mechanism, and demonstrate that in bulk powder and thin-films, increasing tungsten-substitution instigates local V-oxidation through the phase pathway VO[Formula: see text] V[Formula: see text]O[Formula: see text] V[Formula: see text]O[Formula: see text]., (© 2022. The Author(s).)