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During the COVID-19 pandemic, the scientific community developed predictive models to evaluate potential governmental interventions. However, the analysis of the effects these interventions had is less advanced. Here, we propose a data-driven framework to assess these effects retrospectively. We use a regularized regression to find a parsimonious model that fits the data with the least changes in the $$R_t$$ R t parameter. Then, we postulate each jump in $$R_t$$ R t as the effect of an intervention. Following the do-operator prescriptions, we simulate the counterfactual case by forcing $$R_t$$ R t to stay at the pre-jump value. We then attribute a value to the intervention from the difference between true evolution and simulated counterfactual. We show that the recommendation to use facemasks for all activities would reduce the number of cases by 200,000 ($$95\%$$ 95 % CI 190,000–210,000) in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and New York State. The framework presented here might be used in any case where cause and effects are sparse in time.

In daily life, in the operating room and in the laboratory, the operational way to assess wakefulness and consciousness is through responsiveness. A number of studies suggest that the awake, conscious state is not the default behavior of an assembly of neurons, but rather a very special state of activity that has to be actively maintained and curated to support its functional properties. Thus responsiveness is a feature that requires active maintenance, such as a homeostatic mechanism to balance excitation and inhibition. In this work we developed a method for monitoring such maintenance processes, focusing on a specific signature of their behavior derived from the theory of dynamical systems: stability analysis of dynamical modes. When such mechanisms are at work, their modes of activity are at marginal stability, neither damped (stable) nor exponentially growing (unstable) but rather hovering in between. We have previously shown that, conversely, under induction of anesthesia those modes become more stable and thus less responsive, then reversed upon emergence to wakefulness. We take advantage of this effect to build a single-trial classifier which detects whether a subject is awake or unconscious achieving high performance. We show that our approach can be developed into a means for intra-operative monitoring of the depth of anesthesia, an application of fundamental importance to modern clinical practice.

In daily life, in the operating room and in the laboratory, the operational way to assess wakefulness and consciousness is through responsiveness. A number of studies suggest that the awake, conscious state is not the default behavior of an assembly of neurons, but rather a very special state of activity that has to be actively maintained and curated to support its functional properties. Thus responsiveness is a feature that requires active maintenance, such as a homeostatic mechanism to balance excitation and inhibition. In this work we developed a method for monitoring such maintenance processes, focusing on a specifc signature of their behavior derived from the theory of dynamical systems: stability analysis of dynamical modes. When such mechanisms are at work, their modes of activity are at marginal stability, neither damped (stable) nor exponentially growing (unstable) but rather hovering in between. We have previously shown that, conversely, under induction of anesthesia those modes become more stable and thus less responsive, then reversed upon emergence to wakefulness. We take advantage of this efect to build a single-trial classifer which detects whether a subject is awake or unconscious achieving high performance. We show that our approach can be developed into a means for intra-operative monitoring of the depth of anesthesia, an application of fundamental importance to modern clinical practice. Fil: Alonso, Leandro M.. The Rockefeller University; Estados Unidos. Brandeis University; Estados Unidos Fil: Solovey, Guillermo. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Calculo. - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Calculo; Argentina Fil: Yanagawa, Toru. Riken Center For Brain Science; Japón Fil: Proekt, Alex. University of Pennsylvania; Estados Unidos Fil: Cecchi, Guillermo A.. IBM Research. Thomas J. Watson Research Center; Estados Unidos Fil: Magnasco, Marcelo O.. Brandeis University; Estados Unidos. The Rockefeller University; Estados Unidos