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Several prediction models for progression of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) have been developed, but the added value of using genetic information in those models in addition to clinical characteristics is ambiguous. In this prospective cohort study, we explored the added value of genetics using a genetic risk score (GRS) based on 52 AMD-associated variants, in addition to the clinical severity grading at baseline as quantified by validated drusen detection software, to predict disease progression in 177 AMD patients after 6.5 years follow-up. The GRS was strongly associated with the drusen coverage at baseline (P < 0.001) and both the GRS and drusen coverage were associated with disease progression. When the GRS was added as predictor in addition to the drusen coverage, R 2 increased from 0.46 to 0.56. This improvement by the GRS was predominantly seen in patients with a drusen coverage <15%. In patients with a larger drusen coverage, the GRS had less added value to predict progression. Thus, genetic information has added value over clinical characteristics in predicting disease progression in AMD, but only in patients with a less severe disease stage. Patients with a high GRS should be made aware of their risk and could be selected for clinical trials for arresting progression.

The complement system is the first line of defense against foreign intruders, and deregulation of this system has been described in multiple diseases. In age-related macular degeneration (AMD), patients have higher complement activation levels compared to controls. Recently, a combination of three single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genes of the complement system, referred to as a complotype, has been described to increase complement activation in vitro. Here we describe a novel complotype composed of CFB (rs4151667)-CFB (rs641153)-CFH (rs800292), which is strongly associated with both AMD disease status (p = 5.84*10(-13)) and complement activation levels in vivo (p = 8.31*10(-9)). The most frequent genotype combination of this complotype was associated with the highest complement activation levels in both patients and controls. These findings are relevant in the context of complement-lowering treatments for AMD that are currently under development. Patients with a genetic predisposition to higher complement activation levels will potentially benefit the most of such treatments.