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Predicting COVID-19 severity is difficult, and the biological pathways involved are not fully understood. To approach this problem, we measured 4701 circulating human protein abundances in two independent cohorts totaling 986 individuals. We then trained prediction models including protein abundances and clinical risk factors to predict COVID-19 severity in 417 subjects and tested these models in a separate cohort of 569 individuals. For severe COVID-19, a baseline model including age and sex provided an area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) of 65% in the test cohort. Selecting 92 proteins from the 4701 unique protein abundances improved the AUC to 88% in the training cohort, which remained relatively stable in the testing cohort at 86%, suggesting good generalizability. Proteins selected from different COVID-19 severity were enriched for cytokine and cytokine receptors, but more than half of the enriched pathways were not immune-related. Taken together, these findings suggest that circulating proteins measured at early stages of disease progression are reasonably accurate predictors of COVID-19 severity. Further research is needed to understand how to incorporate protein measurement into clinical care., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Recently proposed tumor fitness measures, based on profiling neoepitopes for reactive viral epitope similarity, have been proposed to predict response to immune checkpoint inhibitors in melanoma and small-cell lung cancer. Here we applied these checkpoint based fitness measures to the matched checkpoint treatment naive Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) samples where cytolytic activity (CYT) imparts a known survival benefit. We observed no significant survival predictive power beyond that of overall patient tumor mutation burden, and furthermore, found no association between checkpoint based fitness and tumor T-cell infiltration, cytolytic activity, and abundance (tumor infiltrating lymphocyte, TIL, burden). In addition, we investigated the key assumption of viral epitope similarity driving immune response in the hepatitis B virally infected liver cancer TCGA cohort, and uncovered suggestive evidence that tumor neoepitopes actually dominate viral epitopes in putative immunogenicity and plausibly drive immune response and recruitment.