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The Emilia seismic sequence (Northern Italy) started on May 2012 and caused 17 casualties, severe damage to dwellings and forced the closure of several factories. The total number of events recorded in one month was about 2100, with local magnitude ranging between 1.0 and 5.9. We investigate potential mechanisms (static and dynamic triggering) that may describe the evolution of the sequence. We consider rupture directivity in the dynamic strain field and observe that, for each main earthquake, its aftershocks and the subsequent large event occurred in an area characterized by higher dynamic strains and corresponding to the dominant rupture direction. We find that static stress redistribution alone is not capable of explaining the locations of subsequent events. We conclude that dynamic triggering played a significant role in driving the sequence. This triggering was also associated with a variation in permeability and a pore pressure increase in an area characterized by a massive presence of fluids. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hotspots of genetic diversity are regions of utmost importance for species survival and conservation, and their intimate link with the geographic location of glacial refugia has been well established. Nonetheless, the microevolutionary processes underlying the generation of hotspots in such regions have only recently become a fervent field of research. We investigated the phylogeographic and population genetic structure of the agile frog, Rana dalmatina, within its putative refugium in peninsular Italy. We found this region to harbour far more diversity, phylogeographic structure, and lineages of ancient origin than that by the rest of the species' range in Europe. This pattern appeared to be well explained by climate-driven microevolutionary processes that occurred during both glacial and interglacial epochs. Therefore, the inferred evolutionary history of R. dalmatina in Italy supports a view of glacial refugia as 'factories' rather than as repositories of genetic diversity, with significant implications for conservation strategies for hotspots. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We characterize the statistical law according to which Italian primary school-size distributes. We find that the school-size can be approximated by a log-normal distribution, with a fat lower tail that collects a large number of very small schools. The upper tail of the school-size distribution decreases exponentially and the growth rates are distributed with a Laplace PDF. These distributions are similar to those observed for firms and are consistent with a Bose-Einstein preferential attachment process. The body of the distribution features a bimodal shape suggesting some source of heterogeneity in the school organization that we uncover by an in-depth analysis of the relation between schools-size and city-size.Wepropose a novel cluster methodology and a new spatial interaction approach among schools which outline the variety of policies implemented in Italy. Different regional policies are also discussed shedding lights on the relation between policy and geographical features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from Tuber magnatum fruiting bodies were analyzed using a PTR-TOF-MS instrument. The aim was to characterize the VOC's profile of the fruiting bodies and identify if any VOCs were specific to a season and geographical areas. Multiple factorial analysis (MFA) was carried out on the signals obtained by MS. Experiments using ITS region sequencing proved that the T. magnatum life cycle includes the formation of fruiting bodies at two different times of the year. The VOCs profiles diverge when different seasonal and geographical productions are considered. Using PTR-TOF-MS, compounds present at levels as low pptv were detected. This made it possible to determine both the origin of fruiting bodies (Alba and San Miniato) and the two biological phases of fruiting bodies formation in San Miniato truffles.

Ground-Based Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (GBInSAR) is an efficient technique for capturing short, subtle episodes of conduit pressurization in open vent volcanoes like Stromboli (Italy), because it can detect very shallow magma storage, which is difficult to identify using other methods. This technique allows the user to choose the optimal radar location for measuring the most significant deformation signal, provides an exceptional geometrical resolution, and allows for continuous monitoring of the deformation. Here, we present and model ground displacements collected at Stromboli by GBInSAR from January 2010 to August 2014. During this period, the volcano experienced several episodes of intense volcanic activity, culminated in the effusive flank eruption of August 2014. Modelling of the deformation allowed us to estimate a source depth of 482 ± 46 m a.s.l. The cumulative volume change was 4.7 ± 2.6 × 105 m3. The strain energy of the source was evaluated 3-5 times higher than the surface energy needed to open the 6-7 August eruptive fissure. The analysis proposed here can help forecast shifts in the eruptive style and especially the onset of flank eruptions at Stromboli and at similar volcanic systems (e.g. Etna, Piton de La Fournaise, Kilauea). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Ceprano calvarium was discovered in fragments on March 1994 near the town of Ceprano in southern Latium (Italy), embedded in Middle Pleistocene layers. After reconstruction, its morphological features suggests that the specimen belongs to an archaic variant of H. heidelbergensis, representing a proxy for the last common ancestor of the diverging clades that respectively led to H. neanderthalensis and H. sapiens. Unfortunately, the calvarium was taphonomically damaged. The postero-lateral vault, in particular, appears deformed and this postmortem damage may have influenced previous interpretations. Specifically, there is a depression on the fragmented left parietal, while the right cranial wall is warped and angulated. This deformation affected the shape of the occipital squama, producing an inclination of the transverse occipital torus. In this paper, after X-ray microtomography (μCT) of both the calvarium and several additional fragments, we analyze consistency and pattern of the taphonomic deformation that affected the specimen, before the computer-assisted retrodeformation has been performed; this has also provided the opportunity to reappraise early attempts at restoration. As a result, we offer a revised interpretation for the Ceprano calvarium's original shape, now free from the previous uncertainties, along with insight for its complex depositional and taphonomic history.

Since the beginning of the 1980s, when Mandelbrot observed that earthquakes occur on 'fractal' selfsimilar sets, many studies have investigated the dynamical mechanisms that lead to self-similarities in the earthquake process. Interpreting seismicity as a self-similar process is undoubtedly convenient to bypass the physical complexities related to the actual process. Self-similar processes are indeed invariant under suitable scaling of space and time. In this study, we show that long-range dependence is an inherent feature of the seismic process, and is universal. Examination of series of cumulative seismic moment both in Italy and worldwide through Hurst's rescaled range analysis shows that seismicity is a memory process with a Hurst exponent H ≈ 0.87. We observe that H is substantially space- and timeinvariant, except in cases of catalog incompleteness. This has implications for earthquake forecasting. Hence, we have developed a probability model for earthquake occurrence that allows for long-range dependence in the seismic process. Unlike the Poisson model, dependent events are allowed. This model can be easily transferred to other disciplines that deal with self-similar processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Efficient germplasm exploitation in crop breeding requires comprehensive knowledge of the available genetic diversity. Linking molecular data to phenotypic expression is fundamental for the profitable utilisation of genetic resources. Italian rice germplasm is an invaluable source of genes, being characterised by marked heterogeneity. A phenotypic characterisation is presented in this paper, with a focus on the evolutionary trends, and on the comparison with available molecular studies. A panel of 351 Italian rice varieties was analysed using seven key morphological traits, employing univariate and multivariate analyses. Considerable variability was found, with clear morphological trends towards reduced plant height, earliness, and spindle-shaped caryopses. Previous findings indicating that genetic diversity was maintained throughout time could not be confirmed, as small phenotypic variability was found in the most recent rice varieties. Consistency with phylogenetic data from previous studies was partial: one phylogenetic subgroup was phenotypically well distinct, while the others had overlapping characteristics and encompassed a wide range of phenotypic variation. Our study provides a quantitative ready-to-use set of information to support new breeding programs, as well as the basis to develop variety-specific calibrations of eco-physiological models, to identify promising traits in light of climate change conditions and alternative management scenarios.

The present paper aimed at studying the vertical and horizontal spatial distribution, species richness and diversity of vascular plants in different urban ecological niches (urban habitats) by means of the case study of Bologna (Italy), a typical densely populated southern European city. A total of 477 species were found in the study area of the historical city centre, 30% of which were alien species. Alien plant species were mainly present among phanerophytes, while native plants were mainly therophytes and hemicryptophytes. The habitats that mostly contributed to the species total richness were semi-natural soils, followed by paved areas, walls, rooftops and manholes. The number of exclusive species decreased according to the selectiveness of the habitat, with manholes and rooftops being the most selective. The presence of hemicryptophytes constant decreased going from 27% of more humid habitats to 5% of more arid habitats, so that they can be considered a water availability biomarker. Urban habitat quality, measured by the number of native species, was directly proportional to the strength of selective factors and inversely proportional to the rate of disturbance, with roofs and semi-natural soils having, respectively, the highest and lowest quality. Finally, a relation between species richness and street characteristics, like width, orientation and type of flooring, was demonstrated.

Recent work has disclosed the critical role played by enamel peptides in sex classification of old skeletal remains. In particular, protein AMELY (amelogenin isoform Y) is present in the enamel dental tissue of male individuals only, while AMELX (isoform X) can be found in both sexes. AMELY can be easily detected by LC-MS/MS in the ion extracted chromatograms of the SM (ox) IRPPY peptide (monoisotopic [M + 2 H] +2 mass = 440.2233 m/z). In this paper, we exploited the dimorphic features of the amelogenin protein to determine the sex of the so-called 'Lovers of Modena', two Late Antique individuals whose skeletons were intentionally buried hand-in-hand. Upon discovery, mass media had immediately assumed they were a male-female couple, even if bad preservation of the bones did not allow an effective sex classification. We were able to extract proteins from the dental enamel of both individuals (~1600 years old) and to confidently classify them as males. Results were compared to 14 modern and archaeological control samples, confirming the reliability of the ion chromatogram method for sex determination. Although we currently have no information on the actual relationship between the 'Lovers of Modena' (affective? Kin-based?), the discovery of two adult males intentionally buried hand-in-hand may have profound implications for our understanding of funerary practices in Late Antique Italy.

Arboviral diseases such as chikungunya, dengue, and Zika viruses have been threatening the European countries since the introduction in 1979 of the major vector Aedes albopictus. In 2017, more than three hundred of CHIKV autochthonous cases were reported in Italy, highlighting the urgent need for a risk assessment of arboviral diseases in European countries. In this study, the vector competence for three major arboviruses were analyzed in eight Ae. albopictus populations from Europe. Here we show that Southern European Ae. albopictus were susceptible to CHIKV, DENV-1 and ZIKV with the highest vector competence for CHIKV. Based on vector competence data and vector distribution, a prediction risk map for CHIKV was generated stressing the fear of CHIKV and to a lesser extent, of other arboviruses for Europe, calling us for new public health strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cesarean sections (CS) have become increasingly common in both developed and developing countries, raising legitimate concerns regarding their appropriateness. Since improvement of obstetric care at the hospital level needs quantitative evidence, using routinely collected health data we contrasted the performance of the 11 maternity centres (coded with an alphabetic letter A to L) of an Italian region, Friuli Venezia Giulia (FVG), during 2005–15, after removing the effect of several factors associated with different delivery modes (DM): spontaneous vaginal delivery (SVD), instrumental vaginal delivery (IVD), overall CS (OCS) and urgent/emergency CS (UCS). A multivariable logistic regression model was fitted for each individual DM, using a dichotomous outcome (1 = each DM; 0 = rest of hospital births) and comparing the stratum specific estimates of every term with their respective reference categories. Results were expressed as odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). The Benjamini-Hochberg (BH) false discovery rates (FDR) approach was applied to control alpha error due to the large number of statistical tests performed. In the entire FVG region during 2005–2015, SVD were 75,497 (69.1% out of all births), IVD were 7,281 (6.7%), OCS were 26,467 (24.2%) and UCS were 14,106 (12.9% of all births and 53.3% out of all CS). SVD were more likely (in descending order of statistical significance) with: higher number of previous livebirths; clerk/employed occupational status of the mother; gestational age <29 weeks; placentas weighing <500 g; stillbirth; premature rupture of membranes (PROM). IVD were predominantly more likely (in descending order of statistical significance) with: obstructed labour, non-reassuring fetal status, history of CS, labour analgesia, maternal age ≥35 and gestation >40 weeks. The principal factors associated with OCS were (in descending order of statistical significance): CS history, breech presentation, non-reassuring fetal status, obstructed labour, multiple birth, placental weight ≥ 600 g, eclampsia/pre-eclampsia, maternal age ≥ 35 and oligohydramnios. The most important risk factors for UCS were (in descending order of statistical significance): placenta previa/abruptio placenta/ antepartum hemorrage; non-reassuring fetal status, obstructed labour; breech presentation; PROM, eclampsia/pre-eclampsia; gestation 33–36 weeks; gestation 41+ weeks; oligohydramnios; birthweight <2,500 g, maternal age ≥ 35 and cord prolapse. After removing the effects of all other factors, we found great variability of DM rates across hospitals. Adjusting for all risk factors, all hospitals had a OCS risk higher than the referent (hospital G). Out of these 10 hospitals with increased adjusted risk of OCS, 9 (A, B, C, D, E, F, I, J, K) performed less SVD and 5 (A, C, D, I, J) less IVD. In the above 5 centres CS was therefore probably overused. The present study shows that routinely collected administrative data provide useful information for health planning and monitoring. Although the overall CS rate in FVG during 2005–15 was 24.2%, well below the corresponding average Italian national figure (38.1%), the variability of DM rates across FVG maternity centres could be targeted by policy interventions aimed at reducing the recourse to unnecessary CS. In some clinical conditions such as obstructed labor, non-reassuring fetal status, breech presentation, history of CS, higher maternal age and multiple birth, consideration may be given to more conservative DM. The overuse of CS in nulliparas and repeat CS (RCS) should be carefully monitored and subject to audit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fig tree weevil Aclees sp. cf. foveatus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), introduced in Italy in 2005, is currently causing significant economic and environmental losses to fig tree nurseries and orchards in Central Italy. Fig damages are due to the adults feeding on leaves and fruits, and to the galleries dug by the xylophagous larvae in the trunk, which lead the plants to death. To date, no chemical or biological control methods resulted to be effective against this invasive pest. In order to gain information about possible semiochemicals involved in mate recognition and choice, both the volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and the epicuticular lipids of male and female specimens were analysed. VOCs emissions of specimens were characterized essentially by monoterpenes, while epicuticular lipids contained long chained 2-ketones, alkanes, alkenes, including some methyl alkenes, and several fatty acid propyl esters. The attractiveness of reconstituted VOCs blends of the two sexes was tested in electrophysiological and behavioural assays in laboratory conditions. Both the male and the female reconstituted VOCs drove a significant response towards individuals of the opposite sex, thus demonstrating features of sexual attractants. Our results suggest a possible application of VOCs blends as pheromonic attractants in field monitoring and mass trapping of Aclees sp. cf. foveatus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We studied neurodevelopmental outcomes and behaviours in healthy 2-year old children (N = 1306) from Brazil, India, Italy, Kenya and the UK participating in the INTERGROWTH-21 st Project. There was a positive independent relationship of duration of exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) and age at weaning with gross motor development, vision and autonomic physical activities, most evident if children were exclusively breastfed for ≥7 months or weaned at ≥7 months. There was no association with cognition, language or behaviour. Children exclusively breastfed from birth to <5 months or weaned at >6 months had, in a dose-effect pattern, adjusting for confounding factors, higher scores for "emotional reactivity". The positive effect of EBF and age at weaning on gross motor, running and climbing scores was strongest among children with the highest scores in maternal closeness proxy indicators. EBF, late weaning and maternal closeness, associated with advanced motor and vision maturation, independently influence autonomous behaviours in healthy children.

Urban air pollution represents a global problem, since everyday many mutagenic and carcinogens compounds are emitted into the atmosphere, with consequent adverse health effects on humans and biota. Specifically, particulate matter air pollution was associated with increased risks in human mortality and morbidity. In this paper, we analyse the genomic effects on human lymphocytes of different concentrations of annual Turin PM2.5 extract by an in vitro micronuclei assay. Samplings were collected from an urban meteorological-chemical station positioned in Turin (Italy), one of the most polluted cities in Europe. PM2.5 sampled on filters was used for organic extraction in monthly pools and successively aggregated to produce a mixture representative for a full year PM2.5 collection. Lymphocytes were exposed to four concentrations of PM2.5: 5, 10, 15 and 20 μg/mL and micronuclei, nucleoplasmic bridges and nuclear buds were scored. With respect to controls, PM2.5 significantly increased the frequencies of all analysed biomarkers at all tested concentrations, whereas the CBPI index was significantly reduced only at the concentration of 20 μg/mL. Such in vitro effects can both to stimulate local authorities to adopt efficient measures for air pollution mitigation and to improve human monitoring to detect early precancer lesions.

The role of small game in prehistoric hunter-gatherer economy is a highly debated topic. Despite the general assumption that this practice was uneconomic, several studies have underlined the relevance of the circumstance of capture - in terms of hunting strategies and technology - in the evaluation of the actual role of small mammals in human foraging efficiency. Since very few studies have focused on the recognition of bone hunting lesions, in a previous work we explored the potential of 3D microscopy in distinguishing projectile impact marks from other taphonomic marks, developing a widely-applicable diagnostic framework based on experimental data and focused on Late Epigravettian projectiles. Even though we confirmed the validity of the method on zooarchaeological remains of large-sized mammals, the reliability of the experimental record in relation to smaller animals needed more testing and verification. In this report we thus present the data acquired through a new ballistic experiment on small mammals and compare the results to those previously obtained on medium-sized animals, in order to bolster the diagnostic criteria useful in bone lesion identification with specific reference to small game. We also present the application of this renewed methodology to an archaeological context dated to the Late Glacial and located in the eastern Italian Alps.

In March/April 2020 the Italian government drastically reduced vehicle traffic and interrupted all non-essential industrial activities over the entire national territory. Italy thus became the first country in the world, with the exception of Hubei, to enact lockdown measures as a consequence of the COVID-19 outbreak and the need to contain it. Italy is also a seismically active area, and as such is monitored by a dense permanent network of seismic stations. We analyse continuous seismic data from many stations in northern and central Italy, and quantify the impact of the lockdown on seismic ambient noise, as a function of time and location. We find that the lockdown reduces ambient noise significantly in the 1–10 Hz frequency range; because natural sources of seismic noise are not affected by the lockdown, the seismic signature of anthropic noise can be characterised with unprecedented clarity, by simply comparing the signal recorded before and after the lockdown. Our results correlate well with independent evaluations of the impact of the lockdown (e.g., cell phone displacements), and we submit that ambient-noise seismology is a useful tool to monitor containment measures such as the coronavirus lockdowns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This is a seven-year study (1/7/2011-31/12/2017) of radon monitoring at two sites of Campi Flegrei caldera (Neaples, Southern Italy) that in the last 70 years experienced repeated phases of volcanic unrest. The sites are equipped with devices for radon detection, based on the spectrometry analysis of the α-particles of radon daughters. A hybrid method, as combination of three known methods, is applied for the identification of residuals (anomalies) and trends of the time series of Radon. The results are compared with the following indicators of current caldera unrest: the tremor caused by the major fumarolic vent registered by a seismic station; the cumulative of background seismicity; the maximum vertical deformation acquired by GPS networks during the current phase of uplift; the temperature-pressure of the hydrothermal system estimated based on gas geo-indicators. The comparisons show strong correlation among independent signals and suggest that the extension of the area affected by current Campi Flegrei crisis is larger than the area of seismicity and of intense hydrothermal activity from which the radon stations are 1–4 km away. These results represent an absolute novelty in the study of a such calderic area and mark a significant step forward in the use and interpretation of the radon signal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The arrival of the Longobards in Northern Italy in 568 CE marked a period of renewed political stability in the Peninsula after the collapse of the Western Roman Empire. The trajectory of the spread of Longobards in Italy across the Alps and into the South is known from many literary sources. However, their mobility and residence patterns at a population level remain to be fully understood. Here we present a multi-isotopic analysis (87Sr/86Sr and 18O/16O) of 39 humans and 14 animals buried at the Longobard necropolis of Povegliano Veronese (VR, Italy; 6th—8th century CE), to address mode and tempo of the spread of this population in the Peninsula. The geographical location of Povegliano Veronese plays a key role: the site lies along the Via Postumia, which was one of the main ancient Roman roads of Northern Italy, representing an important route in post-classical Italy. The integration of isotopic data with the archaeological evidence allowed us to determine the presence of individuals from at least three different regions of origin, building a diachronic map of the dynamics of mobility of this group in northern Italy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a geological-stratigraphical study aimed to provide chronologic constraints to the sea-level markers occurring at two coastal caves of central Italy (Grotta Guattari and Grotta dei Moscerini) and to the Neanderthal frequentation of these caves, in the light of recent archaeological and geomorphological-geochronological studies suggesting similar sea levels during MIS 5.5 and MIS 5.3, and only few m below the Present during MIS 5.1 in this region. Based on the review of previous literature data, combined with new stratigraphic observations at Grotta Guattari and re-analysis of archive material including unpublished field notes from Grotta dei Moscerini, we reconstruct a plausible sea-level history accounting for the lithological and paleoenvironmental features of their sedimentary fillings. In particular, we outline the abundant occurrence of well-rounded pumice clasts within the sedimentary deposits of Moscerini Cave, attesting for the proximity to the beach where this pumice was gathered by wave action. Through the petrographic and geochemical analysis of this pumice we evidence provenance from Phlegraean Fields and Ischia Island volcanic districts, framing their chronology in the time span 118–40 ka, consistent with literature ESR-U/Th dates providing ages ranging 101 ± 5–74 ± 7 ka for the sedimentary filling of both Moscerini and Guattari caves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The radioactive nature of radon makes it a powerful tracer for fluid movements in the crust, and a potentially effective marker to study processes connected with earthquakes preparatory phase. To explore the feasibility of using soil radon variations as earthquakes precursor, we analyse the radon concentration data recorded by two stations located close to the epicentre of the strongest mainshock (Mw 6.5 on October 30, 2016) of the seismic sequence which affected central Italy from August 2016. The two stations CTTR and NRCA operate in the framework of the permanent Italian Radon monitoring Network and recorded almost continuously since 2012 and 2016, respectively, the latter being installed just after the first mainshock of the sequence (Mw 6.0 on August 24, 2016). An increase of radon emanation is clearly visible about 2 weeks before the Mw 6.5 event on both the time series, more pronounced on NRCA, nearer to the epicentre, suggesting the possibility of a direct association with the earthquake occurrence. An independently developed detection algorithm aimed at highlighting the connections between radon emission variations and major earthquakes occurrence succeeds in forecasting the Mw 6.5 mainshock on NRCA time series. The resulting time advance of the alarm is consistent with that obtained using a Bayesian approach to compute the a posteriori probability of multiple change points on the radon time series of NRCA. Moreover, it is in agreement with the delay time which maximizes the correlation between radon and seismic anomalies. Applying the detection algorithm to CTTR time series returns alarms for both the Mw 6.0 event, with epicentre closer to this station, and the stronger Mw 6.5 event, but with a higher number of false detections. Finally, we found that a preliminary correction of the bias introduced by variations of meteorological parameters does not affect our main finding of an increase in radon concentration before the major mainshocks. Our study confirms that, although much work is still needed, a monitoring approach based on a permanent dense network is crucial for making radon time series analysis an effective complement to traditional seismological tools. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reporting and analysis of Adverse Events Following Immunization (AEFIs) are the cornerstones of vaccine safety surveillance prompting causality assessment and signal detection. This paper describes the impact of the Italian Pharmacovigilance System of vaccines over a 10-year period (2008-2017). The reporting rate (RR) per all distributed dose was calculated. Serious AEFIs and causality assessments for fatal cases were described. The main results from signal detection were reported. During the study period, 46,430 AEFIs were reported with an overall RR of 17.2 per 100,000 distributed doses. Italy showed the highest number of reports among European countries. Only 4.4% of the reports came from citizens. Of the total, 12.7% were classified as serious with a RR over the study period of 2.20 per 100,000 distributed doses. They were mainly related to hyperpyrexia and usually had a positive outcome. Fatal outcomes were reported in 0.3% of the cases and were primarily associated with the influenza vaccine in elderly patients. None of these outcomes had a consistent causal association with the vaccination. Febrile convulsions by the measles, mumps, rubella and varicella vaccines and intussusception by the rotavirus vaccine were among the highlighted signals. The reporting rate and the analysis of serious events from 10 years support the good risk/benefit profiles of vaccines.

This study presents the result of the second National pathfinder conducted in Italy on children's oral health, reporting the prevalence and severity of caries in 12-year old children and describing the caries figure related to the socioeconomic inequalities, both at individual level and macroeconomic level. The two-digit codes related to ICDAS (International Caries Detection and Assessment System) for each tooth and the gingival bleeding score were recorded at school on 7,064 children (48.97% males and 51.03% females). The Gross National Product (GNP) per capita, the Gini Index and Unemployment rate in each Italian section, parents' educational levels, working status, smoking habit and their ethnic background were recorded. Zero-inflated-negative-binomial (ZINB) models were run, using caries-free teeth, teeth with enamel lesions, cavitated lesions and restorations as functions of socioeconomic explanatory variables, to evaluate the effects of justifiable economic factors of geographical distribution. The mean number of enamel lesions, cavitated lesions and filled per teeth were statistically significant (p < 0.01) dissimilar among the Italian section. GNP per capita, Gini Index and Unemployment rate were significantly correlated to ICDAS scores and filled teeth. Important differences in ICDAS score values remain among children from different socioeconomic backgrounds. Efforts should be made to improve awareness and knowledge regarding oral health practice and to implement preventive programs and access to dental services in Southern Italy where the disease is still unresolved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Italy was the first, among all the European countries, to be strongly hit by the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (Sars-CoV-2). The virus, proven to be very contagious, infected more than 9 million people worldwide (in June 2020). Nevertheless, it is not clear the role of air pollution and meteorological conditions on virus transmission. In this study, we quantitatively assessed how the meteorological and air quality parameters are correlated to the COVID-19 transmission in two large metropolitan areas in Northern Italy as Milan and Florence and in the autonomous province of Trento. Milan, capital of Lombardy region, it is considered the epicenter of the virus outbreak in Italy. Our main findings highlight that temperature and humidity related variables are negatively correlated to the virus transmission, whereas air pollution (PM2.5) shows a positive correlation (at lesser degree). In other words, COVID-19 pandemic transmission prefers dry and cool environmental conditions, as well as polluted air. For those reasons, the virus might easier spread in unfiltered air-conditioned indoor environments. Those results will be supporting decision makers to contain new possible outbreaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since sexual health education (SHE) is not mandatory in Italian schools, we conducted a survey on freshmen of four Italian university campuses in 2012 to investigate the respective level of sexual health knowledge (SHK) in relation to birth control, with the aim to inform public health policy makers. A convenience strategy was employed to sample 4,552 freshmen registered with various undergraduate courses at four Italian universities: Padua university (Veneto Region); university of Milan (Lombardy Region); university of Bergamo (Lombardy Region); university of Palermo (Sicily Region). We investigated the level of SHK on birth control using 6 proxy indicators: (1) the average length of a woman's period [outcome with 3 levels: wrong (base) vs. acceptable vs. correct]; (2) the most fertile interval within a woman's period (binary outcome: correct vs. wrong answer); (3) the event between the end of a period and the beginning of the next cycle (binary outcome: correct vs. wrong answer); (4) the average survival of spermatozoa in the womb (binary outcome: correct vs. wrong answer); (5) the concept of contraception (binary outcome: correct vs. wrong answer); (6) the efficacy of various contraceptives to prevent unintended pregnancies (linear score: 0–17). We fitted 6 separate models of multiple regression: multinomial for outcome 1; logistic for outcomes 2, 3, 4, 6; linear for outcome 6. Statistical estimates were adjusted for a number of socio-demographic factors. Results were expressed as odds ratios (OR) for the 4 multiple logistic regression models, linear coefficients (RC) for the linear regression model and relative risk ratio (RRR) for the multinomial logistic regression model. The level of significance of each risk estimate was set at 0.05. The level of SHK of freshmen sampled was rather low, as 60% interviewees did not know the average length of a woman's period, the average survival of spermatozoa in the womb and the concept of contraception, whilst the most fertile interval within a woman's period was known only to 55% of interviewees. The mean score of SHK on the efficacy of various contraceptive methods was only 5 (scale 0–17). Some categories of students were consistently and significantly less knowledgeable on birth control at multivariable analysis: males; students from the university of Palermo; those with vocational secondary school education and those not in a romantic relationship at the time the survey was conducted. The results of this survey clearly call for the introduction of SHE programs in Italian schools, as already done in several European countries. School SHE should start as early as possible, ideally even before secondary school. SHE should be holistic and delivered with a multiple agency coordinated approach involving the Ministry of Health, the Ministry of Education, University and Scientific Research (MIUR), families, schools, public health departments, primary health care providers, pharmacists, media, other. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Italian Government has decreed a series of progressive restrictions to delay the COVID-19 pandemic diffusion in Italy since March 10, 2020, including limitation in individual mobility and the closure of social, cultural, economic and industrial activities. Here we show the lockdown effect in Northern Italy, the COVID-19 most affected area, as revealed by noise variation at seismic stations. The reaction to lockdown was slow and not homogeneous with spots of negligible noise reduction, especially in the first week. A fresh interpretation of seismic noise variations in terms of socio-economic indicators sheds new light on the lockdown efficacy pointing to the causes of such delay: the noise reduction is significant where non strategic activities prevails, while it is small or negligible where dense population and strategic activities are present. These results are crucial for the a posteriori interpretation of the pandemic diffusion and the efficacy of differently targeted political actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We monitored the burden of cancer in Italy and its trends over the last three decades, providing estimates of cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), for cancer overall and 30 cancer sites using data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2017. An overview of mortality trends between 1990 and 2017 was also provided. In 2017, there were 254,336 new cancer cases in men and 214,994 in women, corresponding to an age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of 438 and 330/100,000, respectively. Between 1990 and 2017, incident cancer cases, and, to a lesser extent, ASIRs significantly increased overall and for almost all cancer sites, but ASIRs significantly declined for lung and other tobacco-related neoplasms. In 2017, there were 101,659 cancer deaths in men (age-standardized death rate, ASDR, 158.5/100,000) and 78,918 in women (ASDR 93.9/100,000). Cancer deaths significantly increased between 1990 and 2017 (+ 18%), but ASDR significantly decreased (− 28%). Deaths significantly increased for many cancer sites, but decreased for stomach, esophageal, laryngeal, Hodgkin lymphoma, and testicular cancer. ASDRs significantly decreased for most neoplasms, with the main exceptions of cancer of the pancreas and uterus, and multiple myeloma. In 2017, cancer caused 3,204,000 DALYs. Between 1990 and 2017, DALYs and age-standardized DALY rates significantly declined (-3.4% and -33%, respectively). Age-standardized mortality rates in Italy showed favorable patterns over the last few decades. However, the absolute number of cancer cases and, to a lower extent, of cancer deaths increased likely due to the progressive ageing of the population, this calling for a continuous effort in cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spreading of invasive species in new continents can vary from slow and limited diffusion to fast colonisations over vast new areas. We studied the sacred ibis Threskiornis aethiopicus along a 31-year period, from 1989 to 2019, with particular attention to the first area of release in NW Italy. We collected data on species distribution through observations by citizen science projects, population density by transects with distance method, breeding censuses at colonies, and post breeding censuses at roosts. The birds counted at winter roosts in NW Italy increased from a few tens up to 10,880 individuals in 2019. Sacred ibises started breeding in 1989, with a single nest in north-western Italy. The number of breeders remained very low until 2006, when both overwintering and breeding sacred ibises started to increase exponentially and expand their range throughout northern Italy with isolated breeding cases in central Italy. In 2019, the number of nests had increased to 1249 nests in 31 colonies. In NW Italy, the density of foraging birds averaged 3.9 ind./km2 in winter and 1.5 ind./km2 in the breeding period, with a mean size of the foraging groups of 8.9 and 2.1 birds respectively. Direct field observations and species distribution models (SDM) showed that foraging habitats were mainly rice fields and wetlands. A SDM applied to the whole Italian peninsula plus Sardinia and Sicily showed that the variables best related to the SDM were land class (rice fields and wetlands), altitude, and the temperature seasonality. The areas favourable for species expansion encompass all the plains of Northern Italy, and several areas of Tuscany, Latium, Sardinia, and Apulia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Worldwide, tropospheric ozone (O3) is a potential threat to wood production, but our understanding of O3 economic impacts on forests is still limited. To overcome this issue, we developed an approach for integrating O3 risk modelling and economic estimates, by using the Italian forests as a case study. Results suggested a significant impact of O3 expressed in terms of stomatal flux with an hourly threshold of uptake (Y = 1 nmol O3 m−2 leaf area s−1 to represent the detoxification capacity of trees), i.e. POD1. In 2005, the annual POD1 averaged over Italy was 20.4 mmol m−2 and the consequent potential damage ranged from 790.90 M€ to 2.85 B€ of capital value (i.e. 255–869 € ha−1, on average) depending on the interest rate. The annual damage ranged from 31.6 to 57.1 M€ (i.e. 10–17 € ha−1 per year, on average). There was also a 1.1% reduction in the profitable forest areas, i.e. with a positive Forest Expectation Value (FEV), with significant declines of the annual national wood production of firewood (− 7.5%), timber pole (− 7.4%), roundwood (− 5.0%) and paper mill (− 4.8%). Results were significantly different in the different Italian regions. We recommend our combined approach for further studies under different economic and phytoclimatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Open conduit basaltic volcanoes can be potentially hazardous as the eruptive activity may turn suddenly from a steady state to highly explosive. Unexpected changes in explosion intensity are recurrent at Stromboli volcano, where major explosions and large-scale paroxysms sometimes break off the ordinary, Strombolian activity with little or no warning. Two powerful paroxysmal eruptions took place at Stromboli volcano during the summer 2019, causing widespread fires, consistent damages across the island, injuries and one fatality. Prediction of similar events is really challenging for the modern volcanology, though models propaedeutic to early-warning monitoring systems are not properly assessed yet in many volcanoes worldwide. Here, we present a multi-parametric study that combines petrological and geophysical data to investigate processes generating the two paroxysms. The time information derived by Li enrichments in plagioclase crystals correlates with tilt time series derived by seismometers installed on the island, highlighting the dominant role of shallow conduit processes in triggering the 2019 paroxysmal activity. Our dataset conceives a mechanism of gas slug formation and fast upward migration that finally triggered the eruptions in very limited times. The proposed model questions our capability to forecast such kind of paroxysms in times that are rapid enough to allow mitigation of the associated risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Calabrian Greeks are an enigmatic population that have preserved and evolved a unique variety of language, Greco, survived in the isolated Aspromonte mountain area of Southern Italy. To understand their genetic ancestry and explore possible effects of geographic and cultural isolation, we genome-wide genotyped a large set of South Italian samples including both communities that still speak Greco nowadays and those that lost the use of this language earlier in time. Comparisons with modern and ancient populations highlighted ancient, long-lasting genetic links with Eastern Mediterranean and Caucasian/Near-Eastern groups as ancestral sources of Southern Italians. Our results suggest that the Aspromonte communities might be interpreted as genetically drifted remnants that departed from such ancient genetic background as a consequence of long-term isolation. Specific patterns of population structuring and higher levels of genetic drift were indeed observed in these populations, reflecting geographic isolation amplified by cultural differences in the groups that still conserve the Greco language. Isolation and drift also affected the current genetic differentiation at specific gene pathways, prompting for future genome-wide association studies aimed at exploring trait-related loci that have drifted up in frequency in these isolated groups.

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are human carcinogens, based on sufficient evidence for melanoma and limited evidence for non-Hodgkin lymphoma and breast cancer. Few data are available for liver cancer, although PCBs cause it in rats and determined liver damage in poisoned people. We investigated the association between PCB serum levels and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with a case–control study in a PCB-polluted area in North Italy. We enrolled prospectively 102 HCC incident cases and 102 age and gender-matched hospital controls. Serum concentrations of 33 PCB congeners were determined by a gas chromatograph coupled to mass spectrometry. Of 102 HCC cases, 62 who had lost < 3 kg of body weight in past 3 years were included in the analysis (67.7% males, mean age 68 years). The odds ratio (OR) for HCC for 3rd compared to 1st tertile of PCB distribution was 1.76 (95% confidence interval 0.62–5.03) for total PCB, adjusting for socio-demographic variables and risk factors for HCC by logistic regression. For most PCB congeners, ORs > 1.5 or 2 were found, although the 95% CIs included the null value for almost all of them. This preliminary study suggests that PCBs might play a role in HCC development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides results from a suite of analyses made on human dental material from the Late Palaeolithic to Neolithic strata of the cave site of Grotta Continenza situated in the Fucino Basin of the Abruzzo region of central Italy. The available human remains from this site provide a unique possibility to study ways in which forager versus farmer lifeways affected human odonto-skeletal remains. The main aim of our study is to understand palaeodietary patterns and their changes over time as reflected in teeth. These analyses involve a review of metrics and oral pathologies, micro-fossils preserved in the mineralized dental plaque, macrowear, and buccal microwear. Our results suggest that these complementary approaches support the assumption about a critical change in dental conditions and status with the introduction of Neolithic foodstuff and habits. However, we warn that different methodologies applied here provide data at different scales of resolution for detecting such changes and a multipronged approach to the study of dental collections is needed for a more comprehensive and nuanced understanding of diachronic changes.

The aim of this study was to assess if lichens (Flavoparmelia caperata) surrounding a landfill dumping site in Italy accumulated higher amounts of microplastics compared with lichens at more distant sites. Lichen samples were collected at three sites along a transect from the landfill: close (directly facing the landfill), intermediate (200 m), and remote (1500 m). Anthropogenic microparticles (fibres and fragments) were determined visually after wet peroxide digestion of the samples, and microplastics were identified based on a hot needle test; the type of plastic was identified by micro-Raman analysis. The results showed that lichens collected in the vicinity of the landfill accumulated the highest number of anthropogenic microfibres and fragments (147 mp/g dw), and consequently microplastics (79 mp/g dw), suggesting that the impact of landfill emissions is spatially limited. The proportion of fibres and fragments identified as microplastics was 40% across all sites and the most abundant polymer type was polyester or polyethylene terephthalate (68%). These results clearly indicated that lichens can effectively be used to monitor the deposition of microplastics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Healthcare workers (HCWs) are at increased risk of being infected with SARS-CoV-2, yet limited information is available on risk factors of infection. We pooled data on occupational surveillance of 10,654 HCW who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection in six Italian centers. Information was available on demographics, job title, department of employment, source of exposure, use of personal protective equipment (PPEs), and COVID-19-related symptoms. We fitted multivariable logistic regression models to calculate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals of infection. The prevalence of infection ranged from 3.0 to 22.0%, and was correlated with that of the respective areas. Women were at lower risk of infection compared to men. Fever, cough, dyspnea and malaise were the symptoms most strongly associated with infection, together with anosmia and ageusia. No differences in the risk of infection were detected according to job title, or working in a COVID-19 designated department. Reported contact with a patient inside or outside the workplace was a risk factor. Use of a mask was strongly protective against risk of infection as was use of gloves. The use of a mask by the source of exposure (patient or colleague) had an independent effect in reducing infection risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the study of a composite, yet continuous sedimentary succession covering the time interval spanning 2.6–0.36 Ma in the intramontane basin of Anagni (central Italy) through a dedicated borecore, field surveys, and the review of previous data at the three palaeontological and archaeological sites of Colle Marino, Coste San Giacomo and Fontana Ranuccio. By combining the magneto- and chronostratigraphic data with sedimentologic and biostratigraphic analysis, we describe the palaeogeographic and tectonic evolution of this region during this entire interval. In this time frame, starting from 0.8 Ma, the progressive shallowing and temporary emersion of the large lacustrine basins and alluvial plains created favorable conditions for early hominin occupation of the area, as attested by abundant tool industry occurrences and fossils. This study provides new constraints to better interpret the hominin migratory dynamics and the factors that influenced the location and spatial distribution during the early occupation of this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Compared with natives, immigrants have lower all-cause mortality rates, despite their lower socioeconomic status, an epidemiological paradox generally explained by the healthy migrant effect. Another hypothesis is the so-called salmon bias effect: "statistically immortal" subjects return to their country of origin when they expect to die shortly, but their deaths are not registered in the statistics of the country of residence. This underestimation of deaths determines an artificially low immigrant mortality rate. We aimed to estimate the potential salmon bias effect on differences in mortality rates between Italians and immigrants. We used a national cohort of all Italians registered in the 2011 census and followed up for mortality from 2012 to 2016. Mortality data were retrieved from the Causes of Death Register, which included all deaths occurring in the country and the Resident Population Register, which collects also the deaths occurring abroad. We assumed as a possible salmon bias event the death of an immigrant resident in Italy that died in his/her country of origin. Considering the deaths occurring in the country of origin, we observed an 18.1% increase in the overall mortality rates for immigrants and an increase of 23.7% in the age-standardized mortality rate. Mortality rates of immigrants resident in Italy, calculated without taking into account the deaths occurring in the country of origin, are certainly underestimated. However, the salmon bias only partly explains the difference in mortality rates between immigrants and Italians. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the SARS-CoV-2 dynamics has been subject of intense research in the last months. In particular, accurate modeling of lockdown effects on human behaviour and epidemic evolution is a key issue in order e.g. to inform health-care decisions on emergency management. In this regard, the compartmental and spatial models so far proposed use parametric descriptions of the contact rate, often assuming a time-invariant effect of the lockdown. In this paper we show that these assumptions may lead to erroneous evaluations on the ongoing pandemic. Thus, we develop a new class of nonparametric compartmental models able to describe how the impact of the lockdown varies in time. Our estimation strategy does not require significant Bayes prior information and exploits regularization theory. Hospitalized data are mapped into an infinite-dimensional space, hence obtaining a function which takes into account also how social distancing measures and people's growing awareness of infection's risk evolves as time progresses. This also permits to reconstruct a continuous-time profile of SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number with a resolution never reached before in the literature. When applied to data collected in Lombardy, the most affected Italian region, our model illustrates how people behaviour changed during the restrictions and its importance to contain the epidemic. Results also indicate that, at the end of the lockdown, around [Formula: see text] of people in Lombardy and [Formula: see text] in Italy was affected by SARS-CoV-2, with the fatality rate being 1.14%. Then, we discuss how the situation evolved after the end of the lockdown showing that the reproduction number dangerously increased in the summer, due to holiday relax, reaching values larger than one on August 1, 2020. Finally, we also document how Italy faced the second wave of infection in the last part of 2020. Since several countries still observe a growing epidemic and others could be subject to other waves, the proposed reproduction number tracking methodology can be of great help to health care authorities to prevent SARS-CoV-2 diffusion or to assess the impact of lockdown restrictions on human behaviour to contain the spread.

Neurodevelopmental disorders are constantly increasing on a global scale. Some elements like heavy metals are known to be neurotoxic. In this cross-sectional study we assessed the neurobehavioral effect of the exposure to trace elements including lead, mercury, cadmium, manganese, arsenic and selenium and their interactions among 299 schoolchildren residing in the heavily polluted Taranto area in Italy. Whole blood, urine and hair were collected for metal analyses, while the Child Behavior Checklist and the Social Responsiveness Scale, administered to the main teacher and the mothers were considered to identify behavioral problems in children. Blood lead mainly influenced social problems, aggressive behavior, externalizing and total problems. Urinary arsenic showed an impact on anxiety and depression, somatic problems, attention problems and rule breaking behavior. A significant interaction between lead and arsenic was observed, with a synergistic effect of the two metals increasing the risk of attention problems, aggressive behavior, externalizing problems and total problems. Overall, we were able to test that higher blood lead, urinary arsenic concentrations and their interaction increase the risk of neurobehavioral problems. This is in line with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's priority list of hazardous substances where arsenic and lead are ranked as first and second respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Older adults are the main victims of the novel COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak and elderly in Long Term Care Facilities (LTCFs) are severely hit in terms of mortality. This paper presents a quantitative study of the impact of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy during first stages of the epidemic, focusing on the effects on mortality increase among older adults over 80 and its correlation with LTCFs. The study of growth patterns shows a power-law scaling regime for the first stage of the pandemic with an uneven behaviour among different regions as well as for the overall mortality increase according to the different impact of COVID-19. However, COVID-19 incidence rate does not fully explain the differences of mortality impact in older adults among different regions. We define a quantitative correlation between mortality in older adults and the number of people in LTCFs confirming the tremendous impact of COVID-19 on LTCFs. In addition a correlation between LTCFs and undiagnosed cases as well as effects of health system dysfunction is also observed. Our results confirm that LTCFs did not play a protective role on older adults during the pandemic, but the higher the number of elderly people living in LTCFs the greater the increase of both general and COVID-19 related mortality. We also observed that the handling of the crises in LTCFs hampered an efficient tracing of COVID-19 spread and promoted the increase of deaths not directly attributed to SARS-CoV-2.

The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the defining events of our time. National Governments responded to the global crisis by implementing mobility restrictions to slow down the spread of the virus. To assess the impact of those policies on human mobility, we perform a massive comparative analysis on geolocalized data from 13 M Facebook users in France, Italy, and the UK. We find that lockdown generally affects national mobility efficiency and smallworldness-i.e., a substantial reduction of long-range connections in favor of local paths. The impact, however, differs among nations according to their mobility infrastructure. We find that mobility is more concentrated in France and UK and more distributed in Italy. In this paper we provide a framework to quantify the substantial impact of the mobility restrictions. We introduce a percolation model mimicking mobility network disruption and find that node persistence in the percolation process is significantly correlated with the economic and demographic characteristics of countries: areas showing higher resilience to mobility disruptions are those where Value Added per Capita and Population Density are high. Our methods and findings provide important insights to enhance preparedness for global critical events and to incorporate resilience as a relevant dimension to estimate the socio-economic consequences of mobility restriction policies.

Social media play a key role in shaping citizens' political opinion. According to the Eurobarometer, the percentage of EU citizens employing online social networks on a daily basis has increased from 18% in 2010 to 48% in 2019. The entwinement between social media and the unfolding of political dynamics has motivated the interest of researchers for the analysis of users online behavior—with particular emphasis on group polarization during debates and echo-chambers formation. In this context, semantic aspects have remained largely under-explored. In this paper, we aim at filling this gap by adopting a two-steps approach. First, we identify the discursive communities animating the political debate in the run up of the 2018 Italian Elections as groups of users with a significantly-similar retweeting behavior. Second, we study the mechanisms that shape their internal discussions by monitoring, on a daily basis, the structural evolution of the semantic networks they induce. Above and beyond specifying the semantic peculiarities of the Italian electoral competition, our approach innovates studies of online political discussions in two main ways. On the one hand, it grounds semantic analysis within users' behaviors by implementing a method, rooted in statistical theory, that guarantees that our inference of socio-semantic structures is not biased by any unsupported assumption about missing information; on the other, it is completely automated as it does not rest upon any manual labelling (either based on the users' features or on their sharing patterns). These elements make our method applicable to any Twitter discussion regardless of the language or the topic addressed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the impact of mobility contraction on employee furlough and excess deaths in Italy during the COVID-19 crisis. Our approach exploits rainfall patterns across Italian administrative regions as a source of exogenous variation in human mobility to pinpoint the causal effect of mobility restrictions on excess deaths and furlough workers. Results confirm that the first countrywide lockdown has effectively curtailed the COVID-19 epidemics restricting it mainly to the northern part of the country, with the drawback of a countrywide increase in unemployment risk. Our analysis points out that a mobility contraction of 1% leads to a mortality reduction of 0.6%, but it induces an increase of 10% in Wage Guarantee Funds allowed hours. We discuss return-to-work policies and prioritizing policies for administering COVID-19 vaccines in the most advanced stage of a vaccination campaign when the healthy active population is left to be vaccinated., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Design ground motion intensities determine the actions for which structures are checked, in the conventional approach of seismic codes, not to fail the target performances. On the other hand, due to inherent characteristics of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), it is expected that site-specific design intensity based on PSHA is exceeded in the epicentral area of moderate-to-high magnitude earthquakes. In the context of regional seismic loss assessment and of the evolution of seismic codes from the regulator perspective, it is useful to gather insights about the extent of the zone around the earthquake source where code-conforming structures are expected to be systematically exposed to seismic actions larger than those accounted for in design. To assess such areal extent based on empirical evidence is the scope of the study presented in the paper. To this aim, peak ground acceleration ShakeMap data for Italian earthquakes from 2008 to 2020 were compared to the current design intensities in the same areas for which the maps are available. This allowed, first, to develop simple semi-empirical models of the exceedance area versus the magnitude of the earthquakes. Second, it allowed to model the probability that an earthquake of given magnitude causes exceedance of the design intensity via logistic regressions. Coupling the first and second class of models provides an approximation of the expected exceedance (logarithmic) area upon occurrence of an earthquake of given magnitude. Such an area can be of several thousand square kilometers for earthquakes occurring relatively frequently in countries such as Italy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lockdowns implemented to address the COVID-19 pandemic have disrupted human mobility flows around the globe to an unprecedented extent and with economic consequences which are unevenly distributed across territories, firms and individuals. Here we study socioeconomic determinants of mobility disruption during both the lockdown and the recovery phases in Italy. For this purpose, we analyze a massive data set on Italian mobility from February to October 2020 and we combine it with detailed data on pre-existing local socioeconomic features of Italian administrative units. Using a set of unsupervised and supervised learning techniques, we reliably show that the least and the most affected areas persistently belong to two different clusters. Notably, the former cluster features significantly higher income per capita and lower income inequality than the latter. This distinction persists once the lockdown is lifted. The least affected areas display a swift (V-shaped) recovery in mobility patterns, while poorer, most affected areas experience a much slower (U-shaped) recovery: as of October 2020, their mobility was still significantly lower than pre-lockdown levels. These results are then detailed and confirmed with a quantile regression analysis. Our findings show that economic segregation has, thus, strengthened during the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earlier in 2020, seven Italian regions, which cover 62% of the Italian population, set up the Mimico-19 network to monitor the side effects of the restrictive measures against Covid-19 on volumes and quality of care. To this aim, we retrospectively analysed hospital discharges data, computing twelve indicators of volume and performance in three clinical areas: cardiology, oncology, and orthopaedics. Weekly indicators for the period January–July 2020 were compared with the corresponding average for 2018–2019; comparisons were performed within 3 sub-periods: pre-lockdown, lockdown, and post-lockdown. The weekly trend of hospitalisations for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) showed a 40% reduction, but the proportion of STEMI patients with a primary PTCA did not significantly change from previous years. Malignant neoplasms surgery volumes differed substantially by site, with a limited reduction for lung cancer (< 20%) and greater declines (30–40%) for breast and prostate cancers. The percentage of timely surgery for femoral neck in the elderly remained constantly higher than the previous 2 years whereas hip and knee replacements fell dramatically. Hospitalisations have generally decreased, but the capacity of a timely and effective response in time-dependent pathways of care was not jeopardized throughout the period. General trends did not show important differences across regions, regardless of the different burden of Covid-19. Preventive and primary care services should adopt a pro-active approach, moving towards the identification of at-risk conditions that were neglected during the pandemic and timely addressing patients to the secondary care system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To reduce the spread and the effect of the COVID-19 global pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions have been adopted on multiple occasions by governments. In particular lockdown policies, i.e., generalized mobility restrictions, have been employed to fight the first wave of the pandemic. We analyze data reflecting mobility levels over time in Italy before, during and after the national lockdown, in order to assess some direct and indirect effects. By applying methodologies based on percolation and network science approaches, we find that the typical network characteristics, while very revealing, do not tell the whole story. In particular, the Italian mobility network during lockdown has been damaged much more than node- and edge-level metrics indicate. Additionally, many of the main Provinces of Italy are affected by the lockdown in a surprisingly similar fashion, despite their geographical and economic dissimilarity. Based on our findings we offer an approach to estimate unavailable high-resolution economic dimensions, such as real time Province-level GDP, based on easily measurable mobility information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We have further extended our compartmental model describing the spread of the infection in Italy. As in our previous work, the model assumes that the time evolution of the observable quantities (number of people still positive to the infection, hospitalized and fatalities cases, healed people, and total number of people that has contracted the infection) depends on average parameters, namely people diffusion coefficient, infection cross-section, and population density. The model provides information on the tight relationship between the variation of the reported infection cases and a well-defined observable physical quantity: the average number of people that lie within the daily displacement area of any single person. With respect to our previous paper, we have extended the analyses to several regions in Italy, characterized by different levels of restrictions and we have correlated them to the diffusion coefficient. Furthermore, the model now includes self-consistent evaluation of the reproduction index, effect of immunization due to vaccination, and potential impact of virus variants on the dynamical evolution of the outbreak. The model fits the epidemic data in Italy, and allows us to strictly relate the time evolution of the number of hospitalized cases and fatalities to the change of people mobility, vaccination rate, and appearance of an initial concentration of people positives for new variants of the virus., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

During the latest Cretaceous, the European Archipelago was characterized by highly fragmented landmasses hosting putative dwarfed, insular dinosaurs, claimed as fossil evidence of the "island rule". The Villaggio del Pescatore quarry (north-eastern Italy) stands as the most informative locality within the palaeo-Mediterranean region and represents the first, multi-individual Konservat-Lagerstätte type dinosaur-bearing locality in Italy. The site is here critically re-evaluated as early Campanian in age, thus preceding the final fragmentation stages of the European Archipelago, including all other European localities preserving hypothesized dwarfed taxa. New skeletal remains allowed osteohistological analyses on the hadrosauroid Tethyshadros insularis indicating subadult features in the type specimen whereas a second, herein newly described, larger individual is likely somatically mature. A phylogenetic comparative framework places the body-size of T. insularis in range with other non-hadrosaurid Eurasian hadrosauroids, rejecting any significant evolutionary trend towards miniaturisation in this clade, confuting its 'pygmy' status, and providing unmatched data to infer environmentally-driven body-size trends in Mesozoic dinosaurs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]