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The cool-season (May to October) rainfall decline in southwestern Australia deepened during 2001–2020 to become 20.5% less than the 1901–1960 reference period average, with a complete absence of very wet years (i.e., rainfall > 90th percentile). CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate model simulations suggest that approximately 43% of the observed multi-decadal decline was externally-forced. However, the observed 20-year rainfall anomaly in 2001–2020 is outside the range of both preindustrial control and historical simulations of almost all climate models used in this study. This, and the fact that the models generally appear to simulate realistic levels of decadal variability, suggests that 43% might be an underestimate. A large ensemble from one model exhibits drying similar to the observations in 10% of simulations and suggests that the external forcing contribution is indeed larger (66%). The majority of models project further drying over the twenty-first century, even under strong cuts to greenhouse gas emissions. Under the two warmest scenarios, over 70% of the late twenty-first century years are projected to be drier than the driest year simulated during the 1901–1960 period. Our results suggest that few, if any, very wet years will occur during 2023–2100, even if strong cuts to global emissions are made. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High altitude acclimatization and disease have been the centerpiece of investigations concerning human health at high altitude. Almost all investigations have focused on either understanding and ameliorating high altitude disease or finding better methods of acclimatization/training at high altitude. The aspect of altitude de-induction/de-acclimatization has remained clouded despite the fact that it was documented since the first decade of twentieth century. A few recent studies, particularly in China, have stated unanimously that high altitude de-acclimatization involved multiple observable clinical symptoms ranging from headache to abdominal distention. These symptoms have been collectively referred to as "high altitude de-acclimatization syndrome" (HADAS). However, computational omics and network biology centric investigations concerning HADAS are nascent. In this study, we focus on the quantitative proteo-informatics, especially network biology, of human plasma proteome in individuals who successfully descended from high altitude areas after a stay of 120 days. In brief, the protein list was uploaded into STRING and IPA to compute z-score based cut-offs which were used to analyze the directionality and significance of various identified protein networks as well as the proteins within them. Relevant upstream regulators extracted using computational strategies were also validated. Time-points till the 180th day of de-induction have been investigated to comparatively assess the changes in the plasma proteome and protein pathways of such individuals since the 7th day of arrival at altitude. Our investigation revealed extensive effects of de-induction on lipid metabolism, inflammation and innate immune system as well as coagulation system. This novel study provides a conceptual framework for formulating therapeutic strategies to ease the symptoms of HADAS during de-acclimatization. Such strategies should focus on normalization of lipid metabolism, inflammatory signaling and coagulation systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biodiversity loss is recognized as a grand challenge of the twenty-first century but ascertaining when a species is "lost" can be incredibly difficult—since the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. This may be a relatively easy task for large and conspicuous animals, but extremely difficult for those living hidden lives or at low population sizes. We showcase this challenge by focusing on Africa's montane skink, Proscelotes aenea (Barbour & Loveridge 1928). In this study, we embarked on a year-long intensive survey to find this fossorial species in Lumbo, Northern Mozambique, the only remaining location where it may still occur but was recorded for the last time over 100 years ago. We located the species already after 20 days of intensive and targeted searching by five members of our team. The finding allowed us to describe, for the first time, details on the biology and ecology of the species, alongside photos and videos of live specimens (including a pregnant female), and to sequence DNA from the species, which we used to infer the phylogenetic placement. Our combined 12S and 16S phylogenetic analysis weakly suggest that the genus Proscelotes may not be monophyletic and therefore requires further phylogenetic work and potentially taxonomic revision. We also gathered evidence of a possible decrease in population abundance and, based on the species' ecology, we identified urbanization as a potential key threat, which could lead to the local or global extirpation of the species. We call for urgent conservation actions that help protect the future of the montane skink, and additional surveys to map its full distribution. As countries now work towards implementing the goals and targets of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, our study demonstrates the need for proper investments in biodiversity inventories and monitoring in order to halt species extinctions by 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Sixth Assessment report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states with high confidence that most sandy coasts around the world will experience an increase in coastal erosion over the twenty-first century. An increase in long term coastal erosion (coastline recession) along sandy coasts can translate into massive socio-economic impacts, unless appropriate adaptation measures are implemented in the next few decades. To adequately inform adaptation measures, it is necessary to have a good understanding of the relative importance of the physical processes driving coastline recession, as well as of linkages between consideration (or not) of certain processes and the level of risk tolerance; understandings that are hitherto lacking. Here, we apply the multi-scale Probabilistic Coastline Recession (PCR) model to two end-member sandy coastal types (swell dominated and storm dominated), to investigate where and when coastline recession projections are dominated by the differential contributions from Sea Level Rise (SLR) and storm erosion. Results show that SLR substantially increases the projected end-century recession at both types of coasts and that projected changes in the wave climate have only a marginal impact. An analysis of the Process Dominance Ratio (PDR), introduced here, shows that the dominance of storm erosion over SLR (and vice versa) on total recession by 2100 depends on both the type of the beach and the risk tolerance levels. For moderately risk-averse decisions (i.e. decisions accounting only for high exceedance probability recessions and hence do not account for very high amounts of potential recession—for example, the placement of temporary summer beach cabins), additional erosion due to SLR can be considered as the dominant driver of end-century recession at both types of beaches. However, for more risk-averse decisions that would typically account for higher potential recession (i.e. lower exceedance probability recessions), such as the placement of coastal infrastructure, multi-storey apartment buildings etc., storm erosion becomes the dominant process. The results of this study provide new insights on which physical processes need to be considered when and where in terms of numerical modelling efforts needed for supporting different management decisions, potentially enabling more streamlined and comprehensive assessments of the efficacy of coastal adaptation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large range of climate change impacts is expected during the twenty-first century in vulnerable regions such as West Africa, where local populations largely rely on livestock systems as their main food production and income source. As climate change threatens livestock systems in various ways, here we assess how regional livestock could be exposed to cumulated climate-related stressors in the future. Using the world's largest multi-model climate impacts simulations database ISIMIP, we find that a large part of West Africa will experience at least 5–6 cumulated multiple climate stressors before the 2030s, including amplified severe heat stress conditions and flood risks. Consequently, about 30% of the current total regional livestock could be exposed to these cumulated stressors, with sheep and goat as the most affected species. This paper brings new quantifications that may help policy makers to prioritize decisions that could prepare local populations to face multiple climate-related impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rehabilitation is considered a key health strategy in the 21st century. The aim of rehabilitation is to optimize the functioning of patients. The International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) is a framework for describing and organizing information on functioning and disability. Current international efforts to implement ICF in rehabilitation practise include the implementation of ICF Core Sets and operationalize ICF tools for clinics. The aim of the study is to create simple, intuitive descriptions and an initial reference guide for the assessment of the ICF Rehabilitation Set in Polish practice. The development of the Polish version of ICF Rehabilitation Set involved the following steps: (1) identification of ICF Rehabilitation Set categories; (2) development simple, intuitive descriptions; (3) the drafting of the rating reference guide by a multidisciplinary panel following the process employed to develop the Japanese version. The Polish version of ICF Rehabilitation Set, the simple, intuitive descriptions for 29 categories and the rating reference guides were successfully developed. The Polish version of ICF Rehabilitation Set proposed by us is a reference framework for the harmonization of existing information on the functioning and disability of people participating in the rehabilitation process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Historically, observational information about atmospheric temperature has been limited due to a lack of suitable measurements. Recent advances in satellite observations provide new insight into the fine structure of the free atmosphere, with the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere comprising essential components of the climate system. This is a prerequisite for understanding the complex processes of this part of the atmosphere, which is also known to have a large impact on surface climate. With unprecedented resolution, latest climate observations reveal a dramatic warming of the atmosphere. The tropical upper troposphere has already warmed about 1 K during the first two decades of the 21st century. The tropospheric warming extends into the lower stratosphere in the tropics and southern hemisphere mid-latitudes, forming a prominent hemispheric asymmetry in the temperature trend structure. Together with seasonal trend patterns in the stratosphere, this indicates a possible change in stratospheric circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The northern fringe area of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) between arid and semiarid regions is a fragile eco-environment zone and ecological transition zone, and it is highly sensitive to climate change. Predicting the future migration of the northern boundary of the EASM is important for understanding future East Asian climate change and formulating of decisions on ecological protection and economic development in arid and semiarid regions. The reanalysis dataset and simulations of 23 models from the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were used to investigate the response of the boundary of the ESAM to the global warming. The multi-model ensemble showed a northwestward migration of the EASM northern boundary during the near-term (2020–2060) and late-term (2061–2099) of the twenty-first century under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The northern boundary migrated northwestward by 23–28 and 74–76 km in the near-term and late-term respectively, under SSP1-2.6, 2-4.5 and 3-7.0 and by ~ 44 km and ~ 107 km respectively during the near-term and late-term under SSP5-8.5. During the twenty-first century, under various SSPs, the surface of the East Asian subcontinent warmed more than the ocean, thereby increasing the contrast of near-surface temperature and sea level pressure in summer between the East Asian subcontinent and the surrounding oceans. In turn, the intensified land–sea thermal contrast reinforced the EASM meridional circulation and thus transported more moisture from the Indian Ocean into northern China. Additionally, a poleward migration and weakening of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet would also favor an increase in precipitation, eventually caused a northwestward migration of the EASM northern boundary. The results suggest that the arid and semiarid ecotone will become wetter, which could dramatically improve the eco-environment in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extraordinary heat extremes occurred in the 1930s in areas of the Northern Hemisphere far from the record setting heat over the US associated with the Great Plains Dust Bowl drought. A climate model sensitivity experiment is used to identify a new mechanism involving a warm season circumglobal atmospheric teleconnection pattern that spread heat extremes over far-flung areas of the Northern Hemisphere arising from the intense heating over the desiccated Great Plains themselves. It has only been in the twenty-first century that human populations in these regions of the Northern Hemisphere have experienced heat extremes comparable to the 1930s. This demonstrates that humans influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature and heat extremes through disastrous and unprecedented regional land use practices over the Great Plains, and points to the possibility that future intense regional droughts could affect heat extremes on hemispheric scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite a variety of studies on the tropical cyclone (TC) response to climate change, few of them have examined the projected damages of future TCs. Here we quantify the impact of anthropogenic warming on TC-induced damages in the late twenty-first century along the coasts of Southeast China based on convection-permitting TC simulations and machine-learning-based damage models. We found that if the area's 10 super typhoons between 2013 and 2019 were to occur at the end of the century under the high emissions RCP8.5 scenario, they would have on average a 12% ± 4% increase in landfall intensity, 25% ± 23% increase in precipitation, and 128% ± 70% increase in economic losses, compared to historical simulations. We also found a significant increase in the full risk profile. The estimated typhoon loss with a 50-year return period for Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, and Hainan (four most typhoon-prone provinces among the seven provinces in the region) would increase by 71%, 170%, 20%, and 85%, respectively, towards the end of the century even under the lower emissions RCP4.5 pathway. Our findings imply the need to design effective local hazard mitigation measures to reduce future typhoon risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study explores the impact of anthropogenic forcings (ANT) on surface air temperatures (SATs) across East Asia (EA) over a long period (1850–2014) using the new Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets. Based on CMIP6 multi-model ensemble simulations, the historical simulations (twentieth century) and future (twenty-first century) SAT projections were investigated. Our calculations show that during 1850–2014, the combination of ANT and natural (NAT) ('ALL = ANT + NAT') forcings increased the EA's SAT by 0.031 °C/decade, while a high increase of 0.08 °C/decade due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The ANT forcing rapidly increased after 1969. As a result, SAT change was enhanced at a rate of 0.268 °C/decade and 0.255 °C/decade due to GHG and ALL forcings, respectively. Human-induced GHG emissions were the dominant factors driving SAT warming and will also contribute to substantial future warming trends. Additionally, the optimal fingerprinting method was used to signify the influence of ANT forcing on climate change in EA. In a two-signal analysis, the ANT forcing was distinctly detected and detached from NAT forcing. In three-signal analyses, GHG forcing was dominant and separated from AER and NAT forcings. The future projections from 2015 to 2100 were examined based on CMIP6 socioeconomic pathway emission scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Language endangerment is one of the most urgent issues of the twenty-first century. Languages are disappearing at unprecedented rates, with dire consequences that affect speaker communities, scientific community and humanity. There is impetus for understanding the nature of language endangerment, and we investigate where language endangerment occurs by performing network analysis on 3423 languages at various levels of risk. Macro-level analysis shows evidence of positive assortative mixing of endangerment statuses—critically endangered languages are surrounded by similarly endangered languages, indicating the prevalence of linguistic hotspots throughout the world. Meso-level analysis using community detection returned 13 communities experiencing different levels of threat. Micro-level analysis of closeness centrality shows that more geographically isolated languages tend to be more critically endangered. Even after accounting for the statistical contributions of linguistic diversity, the structural properties of the spatial network were still significantly associated with endangerment outcomes. Findings support that the notion of hotspots is useful when accounting for language endangerment but go beyond that to establish that quantifying spatial structure is crucial. Language preservation in these hotspots and understanding why endangered languages pattern the way they do in their environments becomes more vital than ever. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fisheries and aquaculture are facing many challenges worldwide, especially adaptation to climate change. Investigating future distributional changes of largely harvested species has become an extensive research topic, aiming at providing realistic ecological scenarios on which to build management measures, to help fisheries and aquaculture adapt to future climate-driven changes. Here, we use an ensemble modelling approach to estimate the contemporary and future distributional range of eight demersal fish species of high economic value in the Mediterranean Sea. We identify a cardinal influence of (i) temperature on fish species distributions, all being shaped by yearly mean and seasonality in sea bottom temperature, and (ii) the primary production. By assessing the effects of changes in future climate conditions under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios over three periods of the twenty-first century, we project a contraction of the distributional range of the eight species in the Mediterranean Sea, with a general biogeographical displacement towards the North European coasts. This will help anticipating changes in future catch potential in a warmer world, which is expected to have substantial economic consequences for Mediterranean fisheries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming is expected to enhance drought extremes in the United States throughout the twenty-first century. Projecting these changes can be complex in regions with large variability in atmospheric and soil moisture on small spatial scales. Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) is a valuable measure of evaporative demand as moisture moves from the surface into the atmosphere and a dynamic measure of drought. Here, VPD is used to identify short-term drought with the Standardized VPD Drought Index (SVDI); and used to characterize future extreme droughts using grid dependent stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) models, and a random sampling technique is developed to quantify multimodel uncertainties. The GEV analysis was performed with projections using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, downscaled from three Global Climate Models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for present, mid-century and late-century. Results show the VPD based index (SVDI) accurately identifies the timing and magnitude short-term droughts, and extreme VPD is increasing across the United States and by the end of the twenty-first century. The number of days VPD is above 9 kPa increases by 10 days along California's coastline, 30–40 days in the northwest and Midwest, and 100 days in California's Central Valley. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

More extreme and prolonged floods and droughts, commonly attributed to global warming, are affecting the livelihood of major sectors of the world's population in many basins worldwide. While these events could introduce devastating socioeconomic impacts, highly engineered systems are better prepared for modulating these extreme climatic variabilities. Herein, we provide methodologies to assess the effectiveness of reservoirs in managing extreme floods and droughts and modulating their impacts in data-scarce river basins. Our analysis of multiple satellite missions and global land surface models over the Tigris-Euphrates Watershed (TEW; 30 dams; storage capacity: 250 km3), showed a prolonged (2007–2018) and intense drought (Average Annual Precipitation [AAP]: < 400 km3) with no parallels in the past 100 years (AAP during 1920–2020: 538 km3) followed by 1-in-100-year extensive precipitation event (726 km3) and an impressive recovery (113 ± 11 km3) in 2019 amounting to 50% of losses endured during drought years. Dam reservoirs captured water equivalent to 40% of those losses in that year. Additional studies are required to investigate whether similar highly engineered watersheds with multi-year, high storage capacity can potentially modulate the impact of projected global warming-related increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall and drought events in the twenty-first century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are concerns about the impact of climate change on Olympic Games, especially endurance events, such as marathons. In recent competitions, many marathon runners dropped out of their races due to extreme heat, and it is expected that more areas will be unable to host the Games due to climate change. Here, we show the feasibility of the Olympic marathon considering the variations in climate factors, socioeconomic conditions, and adaptation measures. The number of current possible host cities will decline by up to 27% worldwide by the late twenty-first century. Dozens of emerging cities, especially in Asia, will not be capable of hosting the marathon under the highest emission scenario. Moving the marathon from August to October and holding the Games in multiple cities in the country are effective measures, and they should be considered if we are to maintain the regional diversity of the Games. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the accelerating mass loss of Antarctic ice sheets, the freshening of the Southern Ocean coastal oceans (SOc, seas around Antarctica) is gradually intensifying, which will reduce the formation of bottom water and weaken the meridional overturning circulation, thus having a significant negative impact on the ocean's role in regulating global climate. Due to the extreme environment of the Southern Ocean and the limitations of observational techniques, our understanding of the glacier-derived freshening of SOc is still vague. We developed a method that first provided us with an expansive understanding of glacier-derived freshening progress over the SOc. Applying this method to the observational data in the SOc from 1926 to 2016, revealed that the rate of glacier-derived freshwater input reached a maximum of 268 ± 134 Gt year−1 during the early twenty-first century. Our results indicate that during the same period, glacier melting accounted for 63%, 28%, and 92% of the total freshening occurred in the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific sectors of the SOc, respectively. This suggests that the ice shelf basal melt in West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula plays a dominant role in the freshening of the surrounding seas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is widely expected to affect the thousands of small tidal inlets (STIs) dotting the global coastline. To properly inform effective adaptation strategies for the coastal areas in the vicinity of these inlets, it is necessary to know the temporal evolution of inlet stability over climate change time scales (50–100 years). As available numerical models are unable to perform continuous morphodynamic simulations at such time scales, here we develop and pilot a fast, probabilistic, reduced complexity model (RAPSTA – RAPid assessment tool of inlet STAbility) that can also quantify forcing uncertainties. RAPSTA accounts for the key physical processes governing STI stability and for climate change driven variations in system forcing. The model is very fast, providing a 100 year projection in less than 3 seconds. RAPSTA is demonstrated here at 3 STIs, representing the 3 main Types of STIs; Permanently open, locationally stable inlet (Type 1); Permanently open, alongshore migrating inlet (Type 2); Seasonally/Intermittently open, locationally stable inlet (Type 3). Model applications under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), accounting for forcing uncertainties, show that while the Type 1 STI will not change type over the twenty-first century, the Type 2 inlet may change into a more unstable Type 3 system around mid-century, and the Type 3 STI may change into a less unstable Type 2 system in about 20 years from now, further changing into a stable Type 1 STI around mid-century. These projections underscore the need for future adaptation strategies to remain flexible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Remote sensing of specific climatic and biogeographical parameters is an effective means of evaluating the large-scale desertification status of drylands affected by negative human impacts. Here, we identify and analyze desertification trends in Iran for the period 2001–2015 via a combination of three indices for vegetation (NPP—net primary production, NDVI—normalized difference vegetation index, LAI—leaf area index) and two climate indices (LST—land surface temperature, P—precipitation). We combine these indices to identify and map areas of Iran that are susceptible to land degradation. We then apply a simple linear regression method, the Mann–Kendall non-parametric test, and the Theil–Sen estimator to identify long-term temporal and spatial trends within the data. Based on desertification map, we find that 68% of Iran shows a high to very high susceptibility to desertification, representing an area of 1.1 million km2 (excluding 0.42 million km2 classified as unvegetated). Our results highlight the importance of scale in assessments of desertification, and the value of high-resolution data, in particular. Annually, no significant change is evident within any of the five indices, but significant changes (some positive, some negative) become apparent on a seasonal basis. Some observations follow expectations; for instance, NDVI is strongly associated with cooler, wet spring and summer seasons, and milder winters. Others require more explanation; for instance, vegetation appears decoupled from climatic forcing during autumn. Spatially, too, there is much local and regional variation, which is lost when the data are considered only at the largest nationwide scale. We identify a northwest–southeast belt spanning central Iran, which has experienced significant vegetation decline (2001–2015). We tentatively link this belt of land degradation with intensified agriculture in the hinterlands of Iran's major cities. The spatial and temporal trends identified with the three vegetation and two climate indices afford a cost-effective framework for the prediction and management of future environmental trends in developing regions at risk of desertification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cartagena is subsiding at a higher rate compared to that of global climate-driven sea level rise. We investigate the relative sea level rise (RSLR) and the influence of vertical land movements in Cartagena through the integration of different datasets, including tide gauge records, GPS geodetic subsidence data, and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) observations of vertical motions. Results reveal a long-term rate (> 60 years) of RSLR of 5.98 ± 0.01 mm/yr. The last two decades exhibited an even greater rate of RSLR of 7.02 ± 0.06 mm/yr. GPS subsidence rates range between − 5.71 ± 2.18 and − 2.85 ± 0.84 mm/yr. InSAR data for the 2014–2020 period show cumulative subsidence rates of up to 72.3 mm. We find that geologically induced vertical motions represent 41% of the observed changes in RSLR and that subsidence poses a major threat to Cartagena's preservation. The geodetic subsidence rates found would imply a further additional RSLR of 83 mm by 2050 and 225 mm by 2100. The Colombian government should plan for the future and serve as an example to similar cities across the Caribbean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]