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Worldwide, tropospheric ozone (O3) is a potential threat to wood production, but our understanding of O3 economic impacts on forests is still limited. To overcome this issue, we developed an approach for integrating O3 risk modelling and economic estimates, by using the Italian forests as a case study. Results suggested a significant impact of O3 expressed in terms of stomatal flux with an hourly threshold of uptake (Y = 1 nmol O3 m−2 leaf area s−1 to represent the detoxification capacity of trees), i.e. POD1. In 2005, the annual POD1 averaged over Italy was 20.4 mmol m−2 and the consequent potential damage ranged from 790.90 M€ to 2.85 B€ of capital value (i.e. 255–869 € ha−1, on average) depending on the interest rate. The annual damage ranged from 31.6 to 57.1 M€ (i.e. 10–17 € ha−1 per year, on average). There was also a 1.1% reduction in the profitable forest areas, i.e. with a positive Forest Expectation Value (FEV), with significant declines of the annual national wood production of firewood (− 7.5%), timber pole (− 7.4%), roundwood (− 5.0%) and paper mill (− 4.8%). Results were significantly different in the different Italian regions. We recommend our combined approach for further studies under different economic and phytoclimatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to study the influence of excavation sequence of three-hole parallel shield tunnel on surface settlement and segment convergence, an improved "three-stage analysis method" was proposed to calculate the surface settlement of three-hole parallel shield tunnel. Based on Peck's existing theory, this method deduced the ground settlement formula under the three-hole parallel condition, and can calculate the ground settlement more accurately. Based on the engineering background of a shield tunnel section in Jiangsu Province, a three-dimensional model of a three-hole parallel shield tunnel was established by using Flac3d software, and the three-hole parallel shield tunnel was simulated under four working conditions: right–center–left, right–left–center, right–left–right and right–center (reverse)–left. This paper analyzed the influence of tunnel excavation sequence on surface settlement, soil displacement and deformation of tunnel segments. The construction sequence was optimized based on the above influencing factors. It was found that Case 4, S-type sequential excavation, produced the least ground settlement. The surface settlement value caused by S-type excavation sequence was only 11.41 mm, and the convergence value of the segments generated by S-type excavation sequence was relatively small. Considering the economic factors such as construction efficiency and benefit, the S-shaped excavation sequence was better. The new calculation method of tunnel surface settlement and the optimal sequence of tunnel construction proposed in this paper can provide reference for actual construction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tuberculosis (TB) causes an economic impact on the patients and their households. Although Thailand has expanded the national health benefit package for TB treatment, there was no data on out-of-pocket payments and income losses due to TB from patients and their household perspectives. This national TB patient cost survey was conducted to examine the TB-related economic burden, and assess the proportion of TB patients and their households facing catastrophic total costs because of TB disease. A cross-sectional TB patient cost survey was employed following WHO methods. Structured interviews with a paper-based questionnaire were conducted from October 2019 to July 2021. Both direct and indirect costs incurred from the patient and their household perspective were valued in 2021 and estimated throughout pre- and post-TB diagnosis episodes. We assessed the proportion of TB-affected households facing costs > 20% of household expenditure due to TB. We analyzed 1400 patients including 1382 TB (first-line treatment) and 18 drug-resistant TB patients (DR-TB). The mean total costs per TB episode for all study participants were 903 USD (95% confident interval; CI 771–1034 USD). Of these, total direct non-medical costs were the highest costs (mean, 402 USD, and 95%CI 334–470 USD) incurred per TB-affected household followed by total indirect costs (mean, 393 USD, and 95%CI 315–472 USD) and total direct medical costs (mean, 107 USD, and 95%CI 81–133 USD, respectively. The proportion of TB-affected households facing catastrophic costs was 29.5% (95%CI 25.1–34.0%) for TB (first-line), 61.1% (95%CI 29.6–88.1%) for DR-TB and 29.9% (95%CI 25.6–34.4%) overall. This first national survey highlighted the economic burden on TB-affected households. Travel, food/nutritional supplementation, and indirect costs contribute to a high proportion of catastrophic total costs. These suggest the need to enhance financial and social protection mechanisms to mitigate the financial burden of TB-affected households. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A global disaster, such as the recent Covid-19 pandemic, affects every aspect of our lives and there is a need to investigate these highly complex phenomena if one aims to diminish their impact in the health of the population, as well as their socio-economic stability. In this paper we present an attempt to understand the role of the governmental authorities and the response of the rest of the population facing such emergencies. We present a mathematical model that takes into account the epidemiological features of the pandemic and also the actions of people responding to it, focusing only on three aspects of the system, namely, the fear of catching this serious disease, the impact on the economic activities and the compliance of the people to the mitigating measures adopted by the authorities. We apply the model to the specific case of Spain, since there are accurate data available about these three features. We focused on tourism as an example of the economic activity, since this sector of economy is one of the most likely to be affected by the restrictions imposed by the authorities, and because it represents an important part of Spanish economy. The results of numerical calculations agree with the empirical data in such a way that we can acquire a better insight of the different processes at play in such a complex situation, and also in other different circumstances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the gradual increase of international willingness to reach the carbon peak and carbon neutrality, this paper decomposes the influencing factors of China's carbon emission changes from 2008 to 2019 using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model (LMDI), and analyzes the contribution amount and rate of each influencing factor. The results found that: for the whole country, the cumulative growth of carbon emissions during the study period is about 416,484.47 (104 tons), among which the economic growth effect plays a major role in promoting, with a cumulative contribution rate of 284.16%; The increase in regulation intensity and the optimization of industrial structure, however, suppress carbon emissions well, with a cumulative contribution rate of about – 199.21% and − 64.75%, respectively, during the study period. For economic regions, the cumulative influence direction of each driver is the same as that of the whole country, while the population size effect in the northeast economic region and the regulation input effect in the eastern coastal economic region act in the opposite direction from other economic regions, and the carbon emission reduction direction of the energy intensity effect varies from one economic region to another. Accordingly, this paper proposes policy recommendations to enhance regulatory intensity, optimize industrial and energy consumption structure, implement localized emission reduction strategies, and promote synergistic emission reduction in economic zones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic policies for managing agricultural water use are often complicated by the challenge of using water prices as an efficient economic tool when other non-economic concerns are involved in the decision-making process. This study aims to analyse the impact of water pricing policies on preserving agricultural water resources in Iran. This study applies a system dynamics approach to simulate the system performance and behaviour of stakeholders and the economic implications. Our finding shows that water pricing policies will likely fail due to low water price elasticity and if there are lack of institutional and physical infrastructure, alternative professions, manufacturing technology, education, and training opportunities. The results also illustrate how agricultural water price increase (AWPI) fails to reduce water consumption in the absence of an adequate institutional arrangement. Also, it shows how the lack of advanced institutional infrastructure in the presence of physical infrastructure enhances pervasive overuse and destructive competition among stakeholders by increasing the area under cultivation. In the discussion, the paper portrays a way out of the decision-making body by following AWPI effects on water conservation in the agricultural sector as the most significant water consumer. It investigates the absence and subsequent presence of specific institutional conditions and evaluates training and enhancing farmers' skills and alternative career source with higher income and technology as the architecture of good environmental governance. Finally, it concludes that a series of inclusive measures must be considered to increase the elasticity of the water price. These measures must stimulate farmers towards pursuing the goals of global sustainable development and enhancing social welfare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a conceptual model describing the medium and long term co-evolution of natural and socio-economic subsystems of Earth. An economy is viewed as an out-of-equilibrium dissipative structure that can only be maintained with a flow of energy and matter. The distinctive approach emphasized here consists in capturing the economic impact of natural ecosystems' depletion by human activities via a pinch of thermodynamic potentials. This viewpoint allows: (i) the full-blown integration of a limited quantity of primary resources into a non-linear macrodynamics that is stock-flow consistent both in terms of matter-energy and economic transactions; (ii) the inclusion of natural and forced recycling; (iii) the inclusion of a friction term which reflects the impossibility to produce (and recycle)goods and services without exuding energy and matter wastes, and (iv) the computation of the anthropically produced entropy as a function of metabolizing intensity and frictions. Analysis and numerical computations confirm the role played by intensity and frictions as key factors for sustainability by contrast with real gdp growth—as well as the interplay between resource scarcity, income inequality, and inflation. A more egalitarian society with moderate inflation turns out to be more sustainable than an unequal society with low inflation. Our approach is flexible enough to allow for various economic models to be embedded into our thermodynamic framework. Finally, we propose the open source EcoDyco software as a first complete realization implementing economic dynamics in a multi-resource environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coping with the outbreak of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), many countries have implemented public-health measures and movement restrictions to prevent the spread of the virus. However, the strict mobility control also brought about production stagnation and market disruption, resulting in a severe worldwide economic crisis. Quantifying the economic stagnation and predicting post-pandemic recovery are imperative issues. Besides, it is significant to examine how the impact of COVID-19 on economic activities varied with industries. As a reflection of enterprises' production output, high-frequency electricity-consumption data is an intuitive and effective tool for evaluating the economic impact of COVID-19 on different industries. In this paper, we quantify and compare economic impacts on the electricity consumption of different industries in eastern China. In order to address this problem, we conduct causal analysis using a difference-in-difference (DID) estimation model to analyze the effects of multi-phase public-health measures. Our model employs the electricity-consumption data ranging from 2019 to 2020 of 96 counties in the Eastern China region, which covers three main economic sectors and their 53 sub-sectors. The results indicate that electricity demand of all industries (other than information transfer industry) rebounded after the initial shock, and is back to pre-pandemic trends after easing the control measures at the end of May 2020. Emergency response, the combination of all countermeasures to COVID-19 in a certain period, affected all industries, and the higher level of emergency response with stricter movement control resulted in a greater decrease in electricity consumption and production. The pandemic outbreak has a negative-lag effect on industries, and there is greater resilience in industries that are less dependent on human mobility for economic production and activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The frequency and severity of extreme events related to climate change have intensified worldwide in the last decades. It is documented that increasing extreme rainfall and flooding cause more nutrient runoff into waterbodies, initiating numerous harmful algal bloom (HAB) events, especially in fragile ecosystems. We analyze the dramatic economic damage of one of these episodes in Mar Menor, the largest salt-water lagoon in Europe. We show that when the public perceived the severity of environmental degradation, the return on housing investment was 43% lower in the surroundings than in similar neighboring zones 6 years after the HAB (2015). This represents a loss in housing wealth of more than 4000 million euros, around ten times the gains of changing from dry-farming to irrigated crops, which makes this ecosystem fragile. Hence, we quantify some of the economic consequences of ecological deterioration linked to episodes of Global Climate Change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Insect biodiversity and abundance are in global decline, potentially leading to a crisis with profound ecological and economic consequences. Methods and technologies to monitor insect species to aid in preservation efforts are rapidly being developed yet their adoption has been slow and focused on specific use cases. We propose a computer vision model that works towards multi-objective insect species identification in real-time and on a large scale. We leverage an image data source with 16 million instances and a recent improvement in the YOLO computer vision architecture to present a quick and open-access method to develop visual AI models to monitor insect species across climatic regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The gradual progress in aligning financial flows with the adoption of clean technologies reveals a persistent funding gap, signaling a global misallocation of capital. Addressing this challenge necessitates political leadership and robust policies to counteract the insecurities impeding the redirection of financial flows. This study investigates into the impact of energy-related public–private partnership investments (PPPIE) and macro-environmental variables on the attainment of Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7) across Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries from 1999 to 2021. Employing the Dynamac command technique, we conduct autoregressive distribution lag analysis and the Bounds Cointegration Test to evaluate ASEAN's efforts in achieving SDG7. Results indicate that a ten-year exogenous shock to the GDP growth rate initially causes a temporary decline in both GDP and PPPIE, albeit not statistically significant. However, in the long run, the shock becomes statistically significant, correlating with a negative decline in the GDP growth rate. This underscores the negative impact of external factors like the COVID-19 pandemic on the economic growth of ASEAN member countries. Specifically, a percentage increase in PPPIE leads to an 8.3% reduction in the GDP growth rate, revealing a detrimental and unsustainable impact on the economy. This signifies that energy investments in the ASEAN region, are predominantly unsustainable and adversely impact economic growth. Moreover, these energy investments contribute to a significant 52.6% increase in greenhouse gas emissions, indicating a substantial setback in the region's progress towards meeting SDG7's clean energy objectives by 2030. This suggests the present state of PPPIE does not align with sustainable clean energy goals of the region. Therefore, recommendations should include diversifying energy sources and investment strategies to enhance sustainable clean energy. Also, policymakers and researchers should reassess the terms and conditions of PPPIE, refining frameworks for private sector involvement to align with long-term economic sustainability goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Excess sugar is considered one of the primary factors contributing to overweight status. In Brazil, sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) contain a significant amount of this nutrient and are consumed excessively. These beverages are associated with adverse health outcomes and impose costs on the healthcare system. The literature currently lacks studies that aim to attribute specific nutrients or foods as causes of diseases and also evaluate their economic impact, especially in middle- and low-income countries. This study aims to estimate the direct and indirect costs of obesity, stratified by sex and age group, resulting from the excessive consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages in Brazil from 2008 to 2020, and to project these costs for the year 2036. The estimation of obesity costs attributable to excessive consumption of SSBs was based on relative risks and the population prevalence of obesity, considering expenditures on hospitalizations and outpatient procedures in the Unified Health System (SUS). Cost information was obtained from the health information systems available at SUS. The highest burden attributable to the consumption of SSBs was observed among younger individuals and progressively decreased with advancing age. The total direct costs in the period between 2008 and 2020 amounted to approximately US$ 6.33 million, 87% of which was related to expenses for females. Additionally, deaths resulting from the consumption of SSBs cost the economy US$ 40 million due to the premature loss of productivity. The total costs of obesity attributable to the consumption of SSBs are substantial, impacting public spending and generating social and productivity losses that burden the economy. It is crucial to develop and implement cost-effective fiscal and regulatory policies aimed at preventing and combating obesity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional population mortality correlates with regional socioeconomic development. This study aimed to identify the key socioeconomic factors influencing mortality patterns in Chinese provinces. Using data from the Seventh Population Census, we analyzed mortality patterns by gender and urban‒rural division in 31 provinces. Using a functional regression model, we assessed the influence of fourteen indicators on mortality patterns. Main findings: (1) China shows notable gender and urban‒rural mortality variations across age groups. Males generally have higher mortality than females, and rural areas experience elevated mortality rates compared to urban areas. Mortality in individuals younger than 40 years is influenced mainly by urban‒rural factors, with gender becoming more noticeable in the 40–84 age group. (2) The substantial marginal impact of socioeconomic factors on mortality patterns generally becomes evident after the age of 45, with less pronounced differences in their impact on early-life mortality patterns. (3) Various factors have age-specific impacts on mortality. Education has a negative effect on mortality in individuals aged 0–29, extending to those aged 30–59 and diminishing in older age groups. Urbanization positively influences the probability of death in individuals aged 45–54 years, while the impact of traffic accidents increases with age. Among elderly people, the effect of socioeconomic variables is smaller, highlighting the intricate and heterogeneous nature of these influences and acknowledging certain limitations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research measures the epidemiological and economic impact of COVID-19 spread in the US under different mitigation scenarios, comprising of non-pharmaceutical interventions. A detailed disease model of COVID-19 is combined with a model of the US economy to estimate the direct impact of labor supply shock to each sector arising from morbidity, mortality, and lockdown, as well as the indirect impact caused by the interdependencies between sectors. During a lockdown, estimates of jobs that are workable from home in each sector are used to modify the shock to labor supply. Results show trade-offs between economic losses, and lives saved and infections averted are non-linear in compliance to social distancing and the duration of the lockdown. Sectors that are worst hit are not the labor-intensive sectors such as the Agriculture sector and the Construction sector, but the ones with high valued jobs such as the Professional Services, even after the teleworkability of jobs is accounted for. Additionally, the findings show that a low compliance to interventions can be overcome by a longer shutdown period and vice versa to arrive at similar epidemiological impact but their net effect on economic loss depends on the interplay between the marginal gains from averting infections and deaths, versus the marginal loss from having healthy workers stay at home during the shutdown. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic costs of climate change are conventionally assessed at the aggregated global and national levels, while adaptation is local. When present, regionalised assessments are confined to direct damages, hindered by both data and models' limitations. This article goes beyond the aggregated analysis to explore direct and indirect economic consequences of sea level rise (SLR) at regional and sectoral levels in Europe. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model and novel datasets, we estimate the distribution of losses and gains across regions and sectors. A comparison of a high-end scenario against a no-climate-impact baseline suggests a GDP loss of 1.26% (€871.8 billion) for the whole EU&UK. Conversely our refined assessments show that some coastal regions lose 9.56–20.84% of GDP, revealing striking regional disparities. Inland regions grow due to the displaced demand from coastal areas, but the GDP gains are small (0–1.13%). While recovery benefits the construction sector, public services and industry face significant downturns. We show that prioritising recovery of critical sectors locally reduces massive regional GDP losses, at negligible costs to the overall European economy. Our analysis traces regional economic restructuring triggered by SLR, underscoring the necessity of region-specific adaptation policies that embrace uneven geographic impacts and unique sectoral profiles to inform resilient strategy design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, war is the major cause of displacement from the usual place of the biological environment. The war of Tigray exposed thousands of people to internal displacement and migration. Evidence has shown that displaced people and migrants shoulder the health and economic burden to ensure survival. However, evidence of the impact of the war on health and the economy related to the displaced people and their hosting communities is not documented. Thus, this study aimed to investigate the health and economic impact of the war on displaced people and the hosting community. A community-based survey was conducted among randomly selected 3572 households of 48 woredas/districts from August 06 to 30/2021 in Tigray. Each district had 4 enumeration sites and there were 20 households (HHs) to be sampled per each enumeration site. Data were collected using a pretested structured questionnaire using face-to-face interviews of displaced and hosting household heads. The entered data is exported to SPSS version 26 statistical packages for data analysis. Summary statistics and geo-spatial analysis was computed. The war had a significant impact on the health and economy of the community of Internally Displaced People (cIDPs) and hosting households. There were 12,691 cIDPs and 3572 hosting HHs. About 12.3% had chronic illness12.3% of (cIDP) who had chronic diseases and follow-up medication was forced to stop their medication. 536 (15%) civilian family members of cIDPs were killed at their homes. During the war, 244 (6.83%) of civilian family members faced physical disability. Consequentially, 43.8% and 58.8% of respondents of cIDPs suffered from severe depression and post-traumatic stress disorder. The war had a significant amount of personal resources such as domestic animals, cereals, cars, machinery, and HH furniture was looted and vandalized by the perpetrator forces from the cIDPs and hosting HHs. The range of family size in the hosting households was 3 to 22. The war had a significant health and economic impact on both cIDPs and hosting HHs. cIDPs suffered from various illnesses and disabilities related to the war with no medical access and follow-up care leading them to stressful situations such as depression and PTSD. There was also a huge economic damage and distraction which threatens the survival of the survivors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is without question that the COVID-19 pandemic has taken its toll on the U.S. economy. Stay-at-home orders led to reduced vehicular traffic and widespread declines in anthropogenic emissions (e.g., nitrogen oxides (NOx)). This study is the first to explore the potential consequences of O3 changes resulting from the economic shutdown in the United States on soybean crop yields for 2020. The pandemic's impact on surface O3 is quantified using the NOAA's National Air Quality Forecasting Capability (NAQFC), which is based on the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for May–July 2020. The "would-be", 2020 level business-as-usual (BAU) emissions are compared to a simulation that uses representative COVID-19 (C19) emissions. For each emissions scenario, crop exposures are calculated using the AOT40 cumulative exposure index and then combined with county-level soybean production totals to determine regional yield losses. Exposure changes ranged between – 2 and 2 ppmVhr−1. It was further shown that increased exposures (0.5 to 1.10 ppmVhr−1) in the Southeast U.S. counteracted decreased exposures (0.8 to 0.5 ppmVhr−1) in the other soybean-producing regions. As a result, corresponding yield improvements counteracted yield losses around the Mississippi River Valley and allowed for minimal improvements in soybean production loss totaling $6.5 million over CONUS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Construction land development intensity is a spatial mapping of modern urbanization level, which integrally reflects urban development strategy, land use efficiency, and population carrying intensity. This article analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution of construction land development intensity using panel data of 31 provincial administrative divisions in China from 2002 to 2020, with the application of the Theil index and spatial autocorrelation. To further investigate the relationship between human activities and land development, the article used geographic detectors to analyze the influencing mechanisms. The results showed that: (1) The average intensity of construction land development of Chinese provinces from 2002 to 2020 showed a trend of "steady increase, a short decline, and then a steady increase," and there were significant differences in the characteristics of construction land development intensity changes in different regions. (2) The regional differences in construction land development intensity between provinces showed a decreasing trend. There were uneven differences among regions, with more minor regional differences in Central, South, and North China but more significant differences in Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast China. (3) The spatial agglomeration of construction land development intensity in the region increased initially and then decreased during the study period. The overall pattern was "small agglomeration and large dispersion." (4) Economic development factors such as GDP per land, industrial structure, and fixed asset investment completion significantly affect land development intensity. The interaction between the factors was apparent, and the effect of "1 + 1 > 2" was produced. Based on the study's results, it is suggested that scientific regional development planning, guiding inter-provincial factor flow, and rational control of land development efforts are the key to promoting sustainable regional development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental quality (EQ) is germane to achieving sustainable living on earth. To evaluate a related stimulus of EQ on area basis, a comparative analyses of economic factors that influence pollution in Iwo and Ibadan metropolis was carried out. Data for the study was generated through the administration of 700 structured questionnaires in total at both locations, out of which 165 and 473 were retrieved from Iwo and Ibadan respectively. The distribution of respondents in form of male gender, married status, tertiary education and household size of not more than 5 were 51.5%, 78.2%, 24.9% and 46.1% respectively for Iwo, while it was 38.5%, 81.0%, 28.6% and 48.8% in the same order for Ibadan. Economic factors analyzed were (1) Income (2) living standard indexed by the form of accommodation occupied (3) waste/noise management regimen (4) energy utilization (5) orthodox versus green economy adoption and (6) waste sorting capacity. Kaiser–Meyer–Olkin sampling adequacy and Bartlett's test of sphericity admitted the data as factorable at p < 0.005. Results showed that three of the economic variables significantly explained the pollution status in Iwo and Ibadan. The variables in Iwo explained 59.3% of the factors and these are waste/noise management strategies (22.5%), living standard (18.7%) and green economy adoption (18.3%). 60.2% of economic impacts on pollution in Ibadan were explained by living standard (24.4%), green economy adoption (18.8%) and waste/noise management strategies (17.0%). Only two of the variables namely living standard, and green economy adoption were common to the two study locations, although, their importance and ordering varied. While waste and noise management were most significant in Iwo, the same variable had the least effect in Ibadan. Green economy adoption was least in Iwo but most significant in Ibadan. Thus, the economic factors influencing pollution in Iwo and Ibadan metropolis, though similar, may not be given a generalized weighting. In other words, analyses of pollution-related matters from the economic viewpoint should be location specific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We combine a global micro level dataset that includes 17 different rural Sub-Saharan countries with satellite information about precipitation during the growing season to estimate the impact of economic conditions on energy choice. Differently from the existing literature, we aim to causally estimate the impact of household welfare variation on the likelihood of choosing a specific energy source. It is found, consistent with theory, that increases in income do determine an increase in the likelihood of using relatively cleaner and more efficient sources of fuel. We find, however, that this impact is quantitatively very small. Results hold conditional on assets, wealth and a large battery of controls and fixed effects. Policy implications are developed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examined systems-level costs before and after the implementation of an emergency department paediatric sepsis screening, recognition and treatment pathway. Aggregated hospital admissions for all children aged < 18y with a diagnosis code of sepsis upon admission in Queensland, Australia were compared for 16 participating and 32 non-participating hospitals before and after pathway implementation. Monte Carlo simulation was used to generate uncertainty intervals. Policy impacts were estimated using difference-in-difference analysis comparing observed and expected results. We compared 1055 patient episodes before (77.6% in-pathway) and 1504 after (80.5% in-pathway) implementation. Reductions were likely for non-intensive length of stay (− 20.8 h [− 36.1, − 8.0]) but not intensive care (–9.4 h [− 24.4, 5.0]). Non-pathway utilisation was likely unchanged for interhospital transfers (+ 3.2% [− 5.0%, 11.4%]), non-intensive (− 4.5 h [− 19.0, 9.8]) and intensive (+ 7.7 h, [− 20.9, 37.7]) care length of stay. After difference-in-difference adjustment, estimated savings were 596 [277, 942] non-intensive and 172 [148, 222] intensive care days. The program was cost-saving in 63.4% of simulations, with a mean value of $97,019 [− $857,273, $1,654,925] over 24 months. A paediatric sepsis pathway in Queensland emergency departments was associated with potential reductions in hospital utilisation and costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The policy of mandatory production and distribution of Neem Coated Urea (NCU) was implemented by the Government of India since 2015. In this article, authors have made an attempt to explore the benefits of NCU recognized by the producers of six major crops such as paddy, maize, sugarcane, tur, jute and soybean across six major states viz., Karnataka, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Punjab and Assam. The results reveal that NCU use has contributed positively in terms of increasing the yield levels of main product and by-products, as well as net returns with regard to almost all reference crops however; the extent varies from crop to crop. Moreover, NCU has helped reduce the cost of production by minimizing the cost of urea as well as other fertilizers and pesticides usage. Interestingly, the diversion of urea has stopped completely, post the production and distribution of NCU. Hence, it is concluded that the application of NCU has a positive impact on Indian agriculture, by way of increasing yield levels & returns for the farming community. These results are in line with the PM's vision of doubling farmers' income by 2022 and Sustainable Development Goals of the Country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economic and health consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic are unequally distributed. A growing literature finds evidence that those with low socioeconomic status have carried a greater burden in terms of both unemployment and infection risk. Against this background, it is natural to also expect increasing socioeconomic inequalities in mental health. We report from a population-based longitudinal study, assessing the mental health of more than 100,000 Norwegian adults during a period of more than 20 years, and into the COVID-19 pandemic. We find substantial, and equally high, increases in depressive symptoms across socioeconomic status. In addition, we show that the increase was particularly strong among women and those with lower levels of depressive symptoms prior to COVID-19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pakistan's agriculture is characterized by insecure water supply and poor irrigation practices. We investigate the economic and environmental feasibility of alternative improved irrigation technologies (IIT) by estimating the site-specific irrigation costs, groundwater anomalies, and CO2 emissions. IIT consider different energy sources including solar power in combination with changes in the irrigation method. The status quo irrigation costs are estimated to 1301 million US$ year−1, its groundwater depletion to 6.3 mm year−1 and CO2 emissions to 4.12 million t year−1, of which 96% originate from energy consumption and 4% via bicarbonate extraction from groundwater. Irrigation costs of IIT increase with all energy sources compared to the status quo, which is mainly based on diesel engine. This is because of additional variable and fixed costs for system's operation. Of these, subsidized electricity induces lowest costs for farmers with 63% extra costs followed by solar energy with 77%. However, groundwater depletion can even be reversed with 35% rise in groundwater levels via IIT. Solar powered irrigation can break down CO2 emissions by 81% whilst other energy sources boost emissions by up to 410%. Results suggest that there is an extremely opposing development between economic and ecological preferences, requiring stakeholders to negotiate viable trade-offs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aims of this study were to assess the impact of a follow-up nutrition consultation for ostomy patients on the rate of high output stoma (HOS)-related readmissions, as well as on the detection of poor nutritional status and their management, and to determine the associated economic impact. A single-centre ambispective cohort study was conducted in which all adult patients undergoing intestinal resection and stoma creation were recruited. Two nutrition consultations were established for early follow-up after hospital discharge and patients were prospectively included. Additionally, a retrospective search was carried out to include a control group. In both groups, a 12-month follow-up was conducted to record readmissions associated with high output stoma. A multivariate logistic regression was performed. Statistical significance level was established at p < 0.05. 170 patients were recruited, 85 patients in each cohort. Demographic data and clinical characteristics were recorded. A significant difference was observed in HOS-related readmissions, with readmission rates of 28.6% vs 10.3% in the retrospective and prospective cohort, respectively. At the first follow-up consultation, 50.5% of patients presented some degree of protein-calorie malnutrition. A statistically significant improvement in nutritional status was observed in the second evaluation. The intervention carried out resulted in a total saving of €24,175. Early follow-up of patients after discharge resulted in a significant reduction in the rate of HOS-related readmissions and allowed to identify a high percentage of patients with malnutrition. The cost analysis showed the process to be a cost-effective improvement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The decrease in freshwater input to the coastal system of the Southern Andes (40–45°S) during the last decades has altered the physicochemical characteristics of the coastal water column, causing significant environmental, social and economic consequences. Considering these impacts, the objectives were to analyze historical severe droughts and their climate drivers, and to evaluate the hydrological impacts of climate change in the intermediate future (2040–2070). Hydrological modelling was performed in the Puelo River basin (41°S) using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model. The hydrological response and its uncertainty were compared using different combinations of CMIP projects (n = 2), climate models (n = 5), scenarios (n = 3) and univariate statistical downscaling methods (n = 3). The 90 scenarios projected increases in the duration, hydrological deficit and frequency of severe droughts of varying duration (1 to 6 months). The three downscaling methodologies converged to similar results, with no significant differences between them. In contrast, the hydroclimatic projections obtained with the CMIP6 and CMIP5 models found significant climatic (greater trends in summer and autumn) and hydrological (longer droughts) differences. It is recommended that future climate impact assessments adapt the new simulations as more CMIP6 models become available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bioerosion is a process with a high socio-economic impact that contributes to coastal retreat, and likely to increase with climate change. Whereas limestone bioerosion is well explained by a combination of mechanical and chemical pathways, the bioerosion mechanisms of silicates, which are harder and chemically more resistant, remain elusive. Here we investigated the interface between siltstone and freshwater rock-boring bivalves Lignopholas fluminalis (Bivalvia: Pholadidae). Remains of a microbial biofilm were observed only in the poorly consolidated part of the rock within the macroborings created by bivalves. Secondary Mn-bearing minerals identified in the biofilm suggest that microbes promoted silicate rock weathering by dissolving Mn-rich chlorites. Moreover, hard mineral debris found in a biofilm attached to the shells likely contributed to the abrasion of the rock substrate. Thus, beyond the classical view of chemical and/or mechanical action(s) of macroborers, silicate bioerosion may also be facilitated by an unexpected synergistic association between macro- and microorganisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sense that one is living a meaningful life is associated with positive health outcomes, but less is known about the role of changes in sense of meaning. This outcome-wide analysis investigated bidirectional associations between changes in ratings of doing worthwhile things in life and 32 factors in 6 domains of human function in 5,694 men and women (M = 66.65 years) from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Participants rated the extent they felt that the things they did in life were worthwhile in 2012 and 2014. Analyses were adjusted for age, gender, education and social class, and were weighted for non-response. We found that health (e.g. few chronic diseases, no chronic pain), emotional wellbeing (e.g. few depressive symptoms, good sleep), greater physical activity, social factors (e.g. close relationships, friends, organizational membership, volunteering, cultural engagement), and economic factors (wealth, income), at baseline were associated with 2 year increases in worthwhile ratings. Conversely, increases in worthwhile ratings over 2 years were related to more favourable health, emotional, behavioural, and social changes between 2012 and 2016 independently of baseline levels. These bidirectional relationships highlight the importance of maintaining worthwhile activities at older ages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assess risks posed by oak wilt—a disease caused by the fungal pathogen Bretziella fagacearum. Though not currently found in Canada, our distribution models indicate that suitable climate conditions currently occur in southern Ontario for B. fagacearum and two of its main insect dispersal vectors, Colopterus truncatus and Carpophilus sayi. Climate habitat for these species is projected to expand northward under climate change, with much of the oak range in eastern Canada becoming climatically suitable within the next two decades. Potential costs for the removal and replacement of oak street trees ranged from CDN$266 to $420 million, with variation related to uncertainty in costs, rate of tree replacement, and city-level estimates of oak street tree density. The value of standing oak timber in eastern Canada was estimated at CDN$126 million using provincial stumpage fees and as a CDN$24 million annual contribution to national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) when calculated using a combination of economic and forestry product statistics. These values can help inform the scale of eradication and/or management efforts in the event of future oak wilt introductions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Huanglongbing (HLB), or Citrus Greening, is one of the most devastating diseases affecting agriculture today. Widespread throughout Citrus growing regions of the world, it has had severe economic consequences in all areas it has invaded. With no treatment available, management strategies focus on suppression and containment. Effective use of these costly control strategies relies on rapid and accurate identification of infected plants. Unfortunately, symptoms of the disease are slow to develop and indistinct from symptoms of other biotic/abiotic stressors. As a result, diagnosticians have focused on detecting the pathogen, Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus, by DNA-based detection strategies utilizing leaf midribs for sampling. Recent work has shown that fibrous root decline occurs in HLB-affected trees before symptom development among leaves. Moreover, the pathogen, Ca. Liberibacter asiaticus, has been shown to be more evenly distributed within roots than within the canopy. Motivated by these observations, a longitudinal study of young asymptomatic trees was established to observe the spread of disease through time and test the relative effectiveness of leaf- and root-based detection strategies. Detection of the pathogen occurred earlier, more consistently, and more often in root samples than in leaf samples. Moreover, little influence of geography or host variety was found on the probability of detection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A second wave pandemic constitutes an imminent threat to society, with a potentially immense toll in terms of human lives and a devastating economic impact. We employ the epidemic Renormalisation Group (eRG) approach to pandemics, together with the first wave data for COVID-19, to efficiently simulate the dynamics of disease transmission and spreading across different European countries. The framework allows us to model, not only inter and extra European border control effects, but also the impact of social distancing for each country. We perform statistical analyses averaging on different level of human interaction across Europe and with the rest of the World. Our results are neatly summarised as an animation reporting the time evolution of the first and second waves of the European COVID-19 pandemic. Our temporal playbook of the second wave pandemic can be used by governments, financial markets, the industries and individual citizens, to efficiently time, prepare and implement local and global measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Internet addiction (IA) is common among adolescents and significantly determined by sociocultural and economic factors. The aim of this study was to compare the prevalence of IA among adolescents between Macau and mainland China and also examine its association with quality of life. A total of 2892 secondary school students were included. Standardized instruments were used to measure IA, depressive symptoms and quality of life. The overall prevalence of IA was 23.7%, with 32.5% in Macau and 19.8% in mainland China. Students in Macau were more likely to suffer from IA than those in mainland China (OR = 2.15, p < 0.001). Correlates of IA included being in higher school grades, poor academic performance, and more severe depressive symptoms. Students with IA reported lower quality of life in physical, psychological, social, and environmental domains. IA is common among Chinese adolescents, particularly in Macau. Considering the negative impact of IA on health and quality of life, regular screening and effective interventions should be undertaken for young Internet users. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]