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Globally, food production for an ever-growing population is a well-known threat to the environment due to losses of excess reactive nitrogen (N) from agriculture. Since the 1980s, many countries of the Global North, such as Denmark, have successfully combatted N pollution in the aquatic environment by regulation and introduction of national agricultural one-size-fits-all mitigation measures. Despite this success, further reduction of the N load is required to meet the EU water directives demands, and implementation of additional targeted N regulation of agriculture has scientifically and politically been found to be a way forward. In this paper, we present a comprehensive concept to make future targeted N regulation successful environmentally and economically. The concept focus is on how and where to establish detailed maps of the groundwater denitrification potential (N retention) in areas, such as Denmark, covered by Quaternary deposits. Quaternary deposits are abundant in many parts of the world, and often feature very complex geological and geochemical architectures. We show that this subsurface complexity results in large local differences in groundwater N retention. Prioritization of the most complex areas for implementation of the new concept can be a cost-efficient way to achieve lower N impact on the aquatic environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine fisheries are increasingly impacted by climate change, affecting species distribution and productivity, and necessitating urgent adaptation efforts. Climate vulnerability assessments (CVA), integrating expert knowledge, are vital for identifying species that could thrive or suffer under changing environmental conditions. This study presents a first CVA for the Western Baltic Sea's fish community, a crucial fishing area for Denmark and Germany. Characterized by a unique mix of marine, brackish, and freshwater species, this coastal ecosystem faces significant changes due to the combined effects of overfishing, eutrophication and climate change. Our CVA involved a qualitative expert scoring of 22 fish species, assessing their sensitivity and exposure to climate change. Our study revealed a dichotomy in climate change vulnerability within the fish community of the Western Baltic Sea because traditional fishing targets cod and herring as well as other species with complex life histories are considered to face increased risks, whereas invasive or better adaptable species might thrive under changing conditions. Our findings hence demonstrate the complex interplay between life-history traits and climate change vulnerability in marine fish communities. Eventually, our study provides critical knowledge for the urgent development of tailored adaptation efforts addressing existing but especially future effects of climate change on fish and fisheries in the Western Baltic Sea, to navigate this endangered fisheries systems into a sustainable future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research in psychology and medicine has linked mental health disorders, and particularly bipolar disorder (BD), to employment in creative professions. Little is known, however, about the mechanisms for this link, which could be due to biology (primarily through a person's genes) or environmental (through socioeconomic status). Using administrative data on mental health diagnoses and occupations for the population of Denmark, we find that people with BD are more likely to be musicians than the population, but less likely to hold other creative jobs. Yet, we also show that healthy siblings of people with BD are significantly more likely to work in creative professions. Notably, people from wealthy families are consistently more likely to work in creative professions, and access to family wealth amplifies the likelihood that siblings of people with BD pursue creative occupations. Nevertheless, family wealth explains only a small share of the correlation between BD and creative employment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most Western countries have increasing number of new cancer cases per year. Cancer incidence is primarily influenced by basically avoidable risk factors and an aging population. Through hypothetical elimination scenarios of multiple major risk factors for cancer, we estimated the number of new cancer cases that are non-preventable in 2050. We compare numbers of new postmenopausal breast, prostate, lung, and colorectal cancer cases in 2021 to projected numbers of new cases in 2050 under prevention scenarios regarding smoking, overweight and obesity, and alcohol consumption: no intervention, 50%, and 100% instant reduction. Cancer incidence data were derived from NORDCAN, and risk factor prevalence data from the Danish National Health Survey. Cancer projections were calculated with the Prevent program. Hypothetical 100% instant elimination of major risk factors for cancer in Denmark in 2022 will result in unchanged numbers of new breast and colorectal cancers in 2050. The number of new prostate cancers will increase by 25% compared to 2021. Unchanged risk factor levels will result in noticeable increase in cancer burden. Increase in life expectancy and age will entail an increase in cancer incidence, despite maximum effect of preventive actions in the population. Our results are important when planning future health care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydropower structures are typically made of materials that are available in most parts of the world, such as steel, concrete, and—to a lesser extent—copper, and do not use critical materials. The weight of hydropower structures is an important input data, as it is used to perform Life Cycle Assessments and to estimate the cost and the economic value of materials, both during the design and in case of dismantling or retrofitting. The weight of material is of interest also for policy-making purposes and for strategic development planning, for example to estimate impacts on resources. In this study, available literature equations are, for the first time, applied at a regional scale (the European Union) to estimate the weight of the hydropower fleet's electro-mechanical (steel-made) equipment. The total weight of the electro-mechanical equipment (runner, distributor, generator, draft tube and casing) amounts to 877 ktons. The average ratio of weight to installed power is R = 5.7 ton/MW and it is lower in mountainous countries (R = 4–6 in alpine areas, R = 30 in Denmark), where hydropower plants exploit high heads and low discharges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Treating severe COVID-19 patients and controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2 are concurrently important in mitigating the pandemic. Classically, antiviral drugs are primarily developed for treating hospitalized COVID-19 patients with severe diseases to reduce morbidity and/or mortality, which have limited effects on limiting pandemic spread. In this study, we simulated the expanded applications of oral antiviral drugs such as molnupiravir to mitigate the pandemic by treating nonhospitalized COVID-19 cases. We developed a compartmental mathematical model to simulate the effects of molnupiravir treatment assuming various scenarios in the Omicron variant dominated settings in Denmark, the United Kingdom and Germany. We found that treating nonhospitalized cases can limit Omicron spread. This indirectly reduces the burden of hospitalization and patient death. The effectiveness of this approach depends on the intrinsic nature of the antiviral drug and the strategies of implementation. Hypothetically, if resuming pre-pandemic social contact pattern, extensive application of molnupiravir treatment would dramatically (but not completely) mitigate the COVID-19 burden, and thus there remains lifetime cost of living with the virus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most artificial intelligence (AI) research and innovations have concentrated in high-income countries, where imaging data, IT infrastructures and clinical expertise are plentiful. However, slower progress has been made in limited-resource environments where medical imaging is needed. For example, in Sub-Saharan Africa, the rate of perinatal mortality is very high due to limited access to antenatal screening. In these countries, AI models could be implemented to help clinicians acquire fetal ultrasound planes for the diagnosis of fetal abnormalities. So far, deep learning models have been proposed to identify standard fetal planes, but there is no evidence of their ability to generalise in centres with low resources, i.e. with limited access to high-end ultrasound equipment and ultrasound data. This work investigates for the first time different strategies to reduce the domain-shift effect arising from a fetal plane classification model trained on one clinical centre with high-resource settings and transferred to a new centre with low-resource settings. To that end, a classifier trained with 1792 patients from Spain is first evaluated on a new centre in Denmark in optimal conditions with 1008 patients and is later optimised to reach the same performance in five African centres (Egypt, Algeria, Uganda, Ghana and Malawi) with 25 patients each. The results show that a transfer learning approach for domain adaptation can be a solution to integrate small-size African samples with existing large-scale databases in developed countries. In particular, the model can be re-aligned and optimised to boost the performance on African populations by increasing the recall to 0.92 ± 0.04 and at the same time maintaining a high precision across centres. This framework shows promise for building new AI models generalisable across clinical centres with limited data acquired in challenging and heterogeneous conditions and calls for further research to develop new solutions for the usability of AI in countries with fewer resources and, consequently, in higher need of clinical support. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interpretable risk assessment of SARS-CoV-2 positive patients can aid clinicians to implement precision medicine. Here we trained a machine learning model to predict mortality within 12 weeks of a first positive SARS-CoV-2 test. By leveraging data on 33,938 confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases in eastern Denmark, we considered 2723 variables extracted from electronic health records (EHR) including demographics, diagnoses, medications, laboratory test results and vital parameters. A discrete-time framework for survival modelling enabled us to predict personalized survival curves and explain individual risk factors. Performance on the test set was measured with a weighted concordance index of 0.95 and an area under the curve for precision-recall of 0.71. Age, sex, number of medications, previous hospitalizations and lymphocyte counts were identified as top mortality risk factors. Our explainable survival model developed on EHR data also revealed temporal dynamics of the 22 selected risk factors. Upon further validation, this model may allow direct reporting of personalized survival probabilities in routine care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a new method to estimate the time-varying effective (or instantaneous) reproduction number of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). The method is based on a discrete-time stochastic augmented compartmental model that describes the virus transmission. A two-stage estimation method, which combines the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to estimate the reported state variables (active and removed cases) and a low pass filter based on a rational transfer function to remove short term fluctuations of the reported cases, is used with case uncertainties that are assumed to follow a Gaussian distribution. Our method does not require information regarding serial intervals, which makes the estimation procedure simpler without reducing the quality of the estimate. We show that the proposed method is comparable to common approaches, e.g., age-structured and new cases based sequential Bayesian models. We also apply it to COVID-19 cases in the Scandinavian countries: Denmark, Sweden, and Norway, where the positive rates were below 5% recommended by WHO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assesses the potential of workplace-based micro-exercise (brief and simple exercise bouts) to prevent long-term sickness absence (LTSA) at the population level. In the Work Environment and Health in Denmark Study (2012–2018), we followed 70,130 workers from the general working population, without prior LTSA, for two years in the Danish Register for Evaluation of Marginalisation. We used Cox regression with model-assisted weights and controlled for various confounders. From 2012 to 2018, the percentage of workers in Denmark using workplace-based micro-exercise during and outside of working hours increased from 7.1 to 10.9% and from 0.8 to 1.4%, respectively. The incidence of long-term sickness absence (at least 30 days) was 8.4% during follow-up. The fully adjusted model showed reduced risk of long-term sickness absence from using micro-exercise during working hours, (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.77–0.96), but not when used outside of working hours. If used by all workers, micro-exercise during working hours could potentially prevent 12.8% of incident long-term sickness absence cases (population attributable fraction). In conclusion, micro-exercise performed during working hours holds certain potential to prevent incident long-term sickness absence in the general working population. Large-scale implementation of workplace-based micro-exercise may represent an unexploited opportunity for public health promotion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The quantification of spreading heterogeneity in the COVID-19 epidemic is crucial as it affects the choice of efficient mitigating strategies irrespective of whether its origin is biological or social. We present a method to deduce temporal and individual variations in the basic reproduction number directly from epidemic trajectories at a community level. Using epidemic data from the 98 districts in Denmark we estimate an overdispersion factor k for COVID-19 to be about 0.11 (95% confidence interval 0.08–0.18), implying that 10 % of the infected cause between 70 % and 87 % of all infections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Powdery mildew is one of the most destructive diseases in the world, causing substantial grain yield losses and quality reduction in cereal crops. At present 23 powdery mildew resistance genes have been identified in rye, of which the majority are in wheat-rye translocation lines developed for wheat improvement. Here, we investigated the genetics underlying powdery mildew resistance in the Gülzow-type elite hybrid rye (Secale cereale L.) breeding germplasm. In total, 180 inbred breeding lines were genotyped using the state-of-the-art 600 K SNP array and phenotyped for infection type against three distinct field populations of B. graminis f. sp. secalis from Northern Germany (2013 and 2018) and Denmark (2020). We observed a moderate level of powdery mildew resistance in the non-restorer germplasm population, and by performing a genome-wide association study using 261,406 informative SNP markers, we identified a powdery mildew resistance locus, provisionally denoted PmNOS1, on the distal tip of chromosome arm 7RL. Using recent advances in rye genomic resources, we investigated whether nucleotide-binding leucine-rich repeat genes residing in the identified 17 Mbp block associated with PmNOS1 on recent reference genomes resembled known Pm genes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]