1. FORECASTING ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS.
- Author
-
Ralph, F. Martin
- Subjects
- *
ATMOSPHERIC rivers , *EXTREME weather , *LANDSLIDES , *WEATHER forecasting , *WEATHER , *METEOROLOGICAL research , *PHYSICAL sciences - Abstract
AR forecasts were also crucial in the Vancouver region during November 2021, following an autumn of heavy rain and mountain snow. Perhaps an AR warning for an upcoming storm can be issued one day sooner, or the rain total can be predicted with even greater accuracy, getting people out of harm's way or increasing water-supply reliability for inevitable dry days to come. Preliminary analysis has shown that AR Recon data improved the prediction and reduced the precipitation forecast error by as much as 50 percent; without it, the predicted rain amount for Big Sur would have been much less than what fell. AR Recon flew more missions every day, firming up indications that the storm would reach AR2 or AR3 levels and would stall, which meant some unlucky coastal region could experience heavy rain for up to a day and a half. [Extracted from the article]
- Published
- 2022