Search

Understanding the intra-city variation of PM 2.5 is important for air quality management and exposure assessment. In this study, to investigate the spatiotemporal variation of PM 2.5 in Guangzhou, we developed land use regression (LUR) models using data from 49 routine air quality monitoring stations. The R 2 , adjust R 2 and 10-fold cross validation R 2 for the annual PM 2.5 LUR model were 0.78, 0.72 and 0.66, respectively, indicating the robustness of the model. In all the LUR models, traffic variables (e.g., length of main road and the distance to nearest ancillary) were the most common variables in the LUR models, suggesting vehicle emission was the most important contributor to PM 2.5 and controlling vehicle emissions would be an effective way to reduce PM 2.5 . The predicted PM 2.5 exhibited significant variations with different land uses, with the highest value for impervious surfaces, followed by green land, cropland, forest and water areas. Guangzhou as the third largest city that PM 2.5 concentration has achieved CAAQS Grade II guideline in China, it represents a useful case study city to examine the health and economic benefits of further reduction of PM 2.5 to the lower concentration ranges. So, the health and economic benefits of reducing PM 2.5 in Guangzhou was further estimated using the BenMAP model, based on the annual PM 2.5 concentration predicted by the LUR model. The results showed that the avoided all cause mortalities were 992 cases (95% CI: 221-2140) and the corresponding economic benefits were 1478 million CNY (95% CI: 257-2524) (willingness to pay approach) if the annual PM 2.5 concentration can be reduced to the annual CAAQS Grade I guideline value of 15 μg/m 3 . Our results are expected to provide valuable information for further air pollution control strategies in China., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest We declare that there are no known conflicts of interest associated with this publication and there has been no significant financial support for this work that could have influenced its outcome., (Copyright © 2021. Published by Elsevier B.V.)