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Terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET a) reflects the complex interactions of climate, vegetation, soil and terrain and is a critical component in water and energy cycles. However, the manner in which climate change and vegetation greening influence ET a remains poorly understood, especially in alpine regions. Drawing on the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) ET a data, the interannual variability of ET a and its ties to precipitation (P), potential evaporation (ET p) and vegetation (NDVI) were analysed. The Budyko framework was implemented over the period of 1982 to 2015 to quantify the response of ET a to climate change's direct (P and ET p) and indirect (NDVI) impacts. The ET a , P, ET p and NDVI all showed significant increasing trends from 1981 to 2015 with rates of 1.52 mm yr−1, 3.18 mm yr−1, 0.89 mm yr−1 and 4.0 × 10−4 yr−1, respectively. At the regional level, the positive contribution of increases in P and NDVI offset the negative contribution of ET p to the change in ET a (∆ET a). The positive ∆ET a between 1982 and 2001 was strongly linked with the concomitant increase in NDVI. Increases in vegetation contributing to a positive ∆ET a differed among landscape types: for shrub, meadow and steppe they occurred during both periods, for alpine vegetation between 1982 and 2001, and for desert between 2002 and 2015. Climate change directly contributed to a rise in ET a, with P as the dominant factor affecting forested lands during both periods, and alpine vegetation between 2002 and 2015. Moreover, ET p was a dominant factor for the desert between 1982 and 2001, where the variation of P was not significant. The contributions of factors having an impact on ∆ET a are modulated by both the sensitivity of impact factors acting on ET a as well as the magnitudes of factor changes. The greening of vegetation can influence ET a by increasing vegetation transpiration and rainfall interception in forest, brush and meadow landscapes. These findings can help in developing a better understanding of the interaction of ecosystems and hydrology in alpine regions. Unlabelled Image • ET a , P, ET p and NDVI showed significant increasing trends from 1981 to 2015 in QLM. • The positive contribution of increases in P and NDVI offset the negative contribution of ET p to the ∆ET a • Climate change contributed to a rise in ET a , with P as a dominant factor for forested lands. • Increase in vegetation dominated the positive ETa trends for shrub, meadow and steppe. • ET a was controlled by the sensitivity of factors to ET a as well as their change magnitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between climate and human society has frequently been investigated to ascertain whether climate variability can trigger social crises (e.g., migration and armed conflicts). In the current study, statistical methods (e.g., correlation analysis and Granger Causality Analysis) are used in a systematic analysis of the potential causality of climate variability on migration and armed conflicts. Specifically, the statistical methods are applied to determine the relationships between long-term fine-grained temperature and precipitation data and contemporary social conditions, gleaned from historical documents covering the last two millennia in China's Hexi Corridor. Results found the region's reconstructed temperature to be strongly coupled with precipitation dynamics, i.e., a warming climate was associated with a greater supply of moisture, whereas a cooling period was associated with more frequent drought. A prolonged cold period tended to coincide with societal instability, such as a shift from unification towards fragmentation. In contrast, a prolonged warm period coincided with rapid development, i.e., a shift from separation to unification. The statistical significance of the causality linkages between climate variability, bio-productivity, grain yield, migration and conflict suggests that climate variability is not the direct causative agent of these phenomena, but that climate reduced food production which gradually lead to migration and conflicts. A conceptual causal model developed through this study describes the causative pathway of climate variability impacts on migration and conflicts in the Hexi Corridor. Applied to current conditions, the model suggests that steady and proactive promotion of the nation's economic buffering capacity might best address the uncertainty brought on by a range of potential future climate scenarios and their potential impacts. Unlabelled Image • Cold periods coincided with social instability and the downfall of dynasties. • Causality linkages of climate-food-conflict were quantitatively justified. • Model for the pathway of climate change impacts on social systems was described. • Potential human integrated coping strategies with climate change are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]