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In this paper, we apply the method of Granger causality which is more accurate than classical correlation analysis method to determine whether the main air pollutants — Nitrogen oxides (NO x ), SO2 (Sulfur Dioxide), CO (carbon monoxide), TSP (total suspended particulates), PM10 (particulate matter smaller than 10 microns) and the mortality of respiratory diseases of the residents in Beijing have causal relationship. After ensuring NO x , SO2 and CO as the responsible substances, we use the time series method to construct the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) of the pollutants, so that we could predict the amount of the pollutants from 2005 to 2008. Then we use the predicted value of pollutants as the input of the neural network model and obtain the output as the change of the death rate of respiratory diseases from 2005 to 2008. In the end, reducing the amount of pollutants by 10% and inputting the data in the neural network model, we make the prediction to evaluate the level of the pollutants and concluded that NO x is the most important pollutant to control. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Particulate air pollution is a serious problem in Beijing. The annual concentration of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm (PM10), ranging from 141 to 166 μg m−3 in 2000–2004, could be very harmful to human health. In this paper, we presented the mortality and morbidity effects of PM10 pollution based on statistical data and the epidemiological exposure–response function. The economic costs to health during the 5 years were estimated to lie between US$1670 and $3655 million annually, accounting for about 6. 55% of Beijing''s gross domestic product each year. The total costs were apportioned into two parts caused by: the local emissions and long-range transported pollution. The contribution from local emissions dominated the total costs, accounting on average for 3. 60% of GDP. However, the contributions from transported pollution cannot be neglected, and the relative percentage to the total costs from the other regions could account for about 45%. An energy policy and effective measures should be proposed to reduce particulate matter, especially PM2. 5 pollution in Beijing to protect public health. The Beijing government also needs to cooperate with the other local governments to reduce high background level of particulate air pollution. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]