1. Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change.
- Author
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Nolan C, Overpeck JT, Allen JRM, Anderson PM, Betancourt JL, Binney HA, Brewer S, Bush MB, Chase BM, Cheddadi R, Djamali M, Dodson J, Edwards ME, Gosling WD, Haberle S, Hotchkiss SC, Huntley B, Ivory SJ, Kershaw AP, Kim SH, Latorre C, Leydet M, Lézine AM, Liu KB, Liu Y, Lozhkin AV, McGlone MS, Marchant RA, Momohara A, Moreno PI, Müller S, Otto-Bliesner BL, Shen C, Stevenson J, Takahara H, Tarasov PE, Tipton J, Vincens A, Weng C, Xu Q, Zheng Z, and Jackson ST
- Subjects
- Biodiversity, Climate Change
- Abstract
Impacts of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. Pervasive ecosystem transformations occurred in response to warming and associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was comparable in magnitude to warming projected for the next century under high-emission scenarios. We reviewed 594 published paleoecological records to examine compositional and structural changes in terrestrial vegetation since the last glacial period and to project the magnitudes of ecosystem transformations under alternative future emission scenarios. Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change and suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation, with accompanying disruption of ecosystem services and impacts on biodiversity., (Copyright © 2018 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)
- Published
- 2018
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