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Background Early psychosis in first-episode psychosis (FEP) and clinical high-risk (CHR) individuals has been associated with alterations in mean regional measures of brain morphology. Examination of variability in brain morphology could assist in quantifying the degree of brain structural heterogeneity in clinical relative to healthy control (HC) samples. Methods Structural magnetic resonance imaging data were obtained from CHR (n = 71), FEP (n = 72), and HC individuals (n = 55). Regional brain variability in cortical thickness (CT), surface area (SA), and subcortical volume (SV) was assessed with the coefficient of variation (CV). Furthermore, the person-based similarity index (PBSI) was employed to quantify the similarity of CT, SA, and SV profile of each individual to others within the same diagnostic group. Normative modeling of the PBSI-CT, PBSI-SA, and PBSI-SV was used to identify CHR and FEP individuals whose scores deviated markedly from those of the healthy individuals. Results There was no effect of diagnosis on the CV for any regional measure (P > .38). CHR and FEP individuals differed significantly from the HC group in terms of PBSI-CT (P < .0001), PBSI-SA (P < .0001), and PBSI-SV (P = .01). In the clinical groups, normative modeling identified 32 (22%) individuals with deviant PBSI-CT, 12 (8.4%) with deviant PBSI-SA, and 21 (15%) with deviant PBSI-SV; differences of small effect size indicated that individuals with deviant PBSI scores had lower IQ and higher psychopathology. Conclusions Examination of brain structural variability in early psychosis indicated heterogeneity at the level of individual profiles and encourages further large-scale examination to identify individuals that deviate markedly from normative reference data.

Depression frequently occurs in first-episode psychosis (FEP) and predicts longer-term negative outcomes. It is possible that this depression is seen primarily in a distinct subgroup, which if identified could allow targeted treatments. We hypothesize that patients with recent-onset psychosis (ROP) and comorbid depression would be identifiable by symptoms and neuroanatomical features similar to those seen in recent-onset depression (ROD). Data were extracted from the multisite PRONIA study: 154 ROP patients (FEP within 3 months of treatment onset), of whom 83 were depressed (ROP+D) and 71 who were not depressed (ROP−D), 146 ROD patients, and 265 healthy controls (HC). Analyses included a (1) principal component analysis that established the similar symptom structure of depression in ROD and ROP+D, (2) supervised machine learning (ML) classification with repeated nested cross-validation based on depressive symptoms separating ROD vs ROP+D, which achieved a balanced accuracy (BAC) of 51%, and (3) neuroanatomical ML-based classification, using regions of interest generated from ROD subjects, which identified BAC of 50% (no better than chance) for separation of ROP+D vs ROP−D. We conclude that depression at a symptom level is broadly similar with or without psychosis status in recent-onset disorders; however, this is not driven by a separable depressed subgroup in FEP. Depression may be intrinsic to early stages of psychotic disorder, and thus treating depression could produce widespread benefit.

Background Precise prognosis of clinical outcomes in individuals at clinical high-risk (CHR) of developing psychosis is imperative to guide treatment selection. While much effort has been put into the prediction of transition to psychosis in CHR individuals, prognostic models focusing on negative symptom progression in this population are widely missing. This is a major oversight bearing in mind that 82% of CHR individuals exhibit at least one negative symptom in the moderate to severe range at first clinical presentation, whereas 54% still meet this criteria after 12 months. Negative symptoms are strong predictors of poor functional outcome irrespective of other symptoms such as depression or anxiety. Prognostic tools are therefore urgently required to track negative symptom progression in CHR individuals in order to guide early personalized interventions. Here, we applied machine-learning to multi-site data from five European countries with the aim of predicting negative symptoms of at least moderate severity 9-month after study inclusion. Methods We analyzed data from the ‘Personalized Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management’ (PRONIA; www.pronia.eu) study, which consisted of 94 individuals at clinical high-risk of developing psychosis (CHR). Predictive models either included baseline level of negative symptoms, measured with the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes, whole-brain gyrification pattern, or both to forecast negative symptoms of moderate severity or above in CHR individuals. Using data from the clinical and gyrification model, further sequential testing simulations were conducted to stratify CHR individuals into different risk groups. Lastly, we assessed the models’ ability to predict functional outcomes in CHR individuals. Results Baseline negative symptom severity alone predicted moderate to severe negative symptoms with a balanced accuracy (BAC) of 68%, whereas predictive models trained on gyrification measures achieved a BAC of 64%. Stacking the two modalities allowed for an increased BAC of 72%. Additional sequential testing simulations suggested, that CHR patients could be stratified into a high risk group with 83% probability of experiencing at least moderate negative symptoms at follow-up and a medium/low risk group with a risk ranging from 25 to 38%, when using the two models sequentially. Furthermore, the models trained to predict negative symptom severity from baseline symptoms were less predictive of role (60% BAC) and social (62% BAC) functioning at follow-up. However, the model trained on gyrification data also predicted role (74% BAC) and social (73% BAC) functioning later on. The stacking model predicted role, and social functioning with 64% BAC and 66% BAC respectively. Discussion To the best of our knowledge this is the first study using state-of-the-art predictive modelling to prospectively identify CHR subjects with negative symptoms in the moderate to above moderate severity range who potentially require further therapeutic consideration. While the predictive performance will need to be validated in other samples and may be improved by expanding the models with additional predictors, we believe that this pragmatic approach will help to stratify individual risk profiles and optimize personal interventions in the future.

Background Semantic processing anomalies, clinically reflected by disorganized speech are a core symptom of schizophrenia. In the light of accumulating evidence on its prominent role in semantic processing, aberrant structural integrity of the ventral language stream may reflect impaired semantic processing in schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSD). Methods Comparison of white matter tract integrity in SSD patients and healthy controls using diffusion tensor imaging combined with probabilistic fiber tractography. For the ventral language stream, we assessed the inferior fronto-occipital fasciculus [IFOF], inferior longitudinal fasciculus, and uncinate fasciculus. The arcuate fasciculus and corticospinal tract were used as control tracts. In SSD patients, the relationship between semantic processing impairments and tract integrity was analyzed separately. Three-dimensional tract reconstructions were performed in 45/44 SSD patients/controls (“Bern sample”) and replicated in an independent sample of 24/24 SSD patients/controls (“Basel sample”). Results Multivariate analyses of fractional anisotropy, mean, axial, and radial diffusivity of the left IFOF showed significant differences between SSD patients and controls (p Discussion This work provides direct evidence for the importance of the integrity of the ventral language stream, in particular the left IFOF, in semantic processing deficits in SSD.

Background Negative symptoms are core contributors to social deficits in psychosis. However, currently available interventions do not significantly ameliorate negative symptoms or social outcomes in individuals at Clinical High Risk of Psychosis (CHR-P). Given its critical role in human social behaviour and cognition, the oxytocin (OT) system is a promising target for the treatment of social impairments in CHR-P subjects. Methods In a double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover design, 30 CHR-P males were studied using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) on two occasions, once after 40IU intranasal OT and once after placebo. A modified version of the Sally-Anne task was used to record brain activation during inferring others’ beliefs (cognitive empathy) and social emotions (emotional empathy). The Reading the Mind in the Eyes Test was acquired to test whether OT effects were mediated by baseline social-emotional abilities. Results OT did not modulate behavioural task performance but reduced activation in the bilateral inferior frontal gyrus compared with placebo during emotional empathy. Furthermore, the relationship between brain activation and task performance after OT administration was mediated by baseline social-emotional abilities; while task accuracy during emotional empathy increased with decreasing activation in the left inferior frontal gyrus in CHR-P individuals with low social-emotional abilities, there was no such relationship in CHR-P individual with high social-emotional abilities. Discussion These findings suggest that OT enhances neural efficiency in inferring others’ social emotions in those people at clinical high risk for psychosis with attenuated emotional empathy.

Background Individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) of psychosis have an approximately 20% probability of developing psychosis within 2 years, as well as an associated risk of non-psychotic disorders and functional impairment. People with subclinical psychotic experiences (PEs) are also at risk of future psychotic and non-psychotic disorders and decreased functioning. It is difficult to accurately predict outcomes in individuals at risk of psychosis on the basis of symptoms alone. Biomarkers for accurate prediction of outcomes could inform the clinical management of this group. Methods We conducted two nested case-control studies. We employed discovery-based proteomic methods to analyse protein expression in baseline plasma samples in EU-GEI and age 12 plasma samples in ALSPAC using liquid chromatography mass spectrometry. Differential expression of quantified proteomic markers was determined by analyses of covariance (with false discovery rate of 5%) comparing expression levels for each marker between those who did not and did not develop psychosis in Study 1 (adjusting for age, gender, body mass index and years in education), and between those who did and did not develop PEs in Study 2 (adjusting for gender, body mass index and maternal social class). Support vector machine algorithms were used to develop models for prediction of transition vs. non-transition (as determined by the Comprehensive Assessment of At Risk Mental States) and poor vs. good functional outcome at 2 years in Study 1 (General Assessment of Functioning: Disability subscale score 60). Similar algorithms were used to develop a model for prediction of PEs vs. no PEs at age 18 in Study 2 (as determined by the Psychosis Like Symptoms Interview). Results In Study 1, 35 of 166 quantified proteins were significantly differentially expressed between CHR participants who did and did not develop psychosis. Functional enrichment analysis provided evidence for particular implication of the complement and coagulation cascade (false discovery rate-adjusted Fisher’s exact test p=2.23E-21). Using 65 clinical and 166 proteomic features a model demonstrated excellent performance for prediction of transition status (area under the receiver-operating curve [AUC] 0.96, positive predictive value [PPV] 83.0%, negative predictive value [NPV] 93.8%). A model based on the ten most predictive proteins accurately predicted transition status in training (AUC 0.96, PPV 87.5%, NPV 95.8%) and withheld data (AUC 0.92, PPV 88.9%, NPV 91.4%). A model using the same 65 clinical and 166 proteomic features predicted 2-year functional outcome with AUC 0.72 (PPV 67.6%, NPV 47.6%). In Study 2, 5 of 265 quantified proteins were significantly differentially expressed between participants who did and did not report PEs at age 18. A model using 265 proteomic features predicted PEs at age 18 with AUC 0.76 (PPV 69.1%, NPV 74.2%). Discussion With external validation, models incorporating proteomic data may contribute to improved prediction of clinical outcomes in individuals at risk of psychosis.

Background Functional deficits associated with the Clinical High Risk (CHR) status very often lead to inability to attend school, unemployment, as well as social isolation, thus calling for predictors of individual functional outcomes which may facilitate the identification of people requiring care irrespective of transition to psychosis. Studies have revealed that a pattern of cortical and subcortical gray matter volumes (GMV) anomalies measured at baseline in CHR individuals could predict their functional abilities at follow up. Furthermore, literature is consistent in revealing the crucial role of several environmental adverse events in increasing the risk of developing either transition to psychosis, or a worse overall personal functioning. Therefore, the aim of this study is to employ machine learning to test the individual and combined ability of baseline GMV data and of history of environmental adverse events in predicting good vs. poor social and occupational outcome in CHR individuals at follow up. Methods 92 CHR individuals recruited from the 7 discovery PRONIA sites were included in this project. Social and occupational impairment at follow up (9–12 months) were respectively measured through the Global Functioning: Social (GF:S) and Role (GF:R) scale, and CHR with a follow up rating of 7 or below were labeled as having a poor functional outcome. This way, we could separate our cohort in 52 poor outcome CHR and 40 good outcome CHR. GMV data were preprocessed following published procedures which allowed also to correct for site effects. The environmental classifier was built based on Childhood Trauma Questionnaire, Bullying Scale, and Premorbid Adjustment Scale (childhood, early adolescence, late adolescence and adulthood) scores. Raw scores have been normalized according to the psychometric properties of the healthy samples used for validating these questionnaires and scale, in order to obtain individual scores of deviation from the normative occurrence of adverse environmental events. GMV and environmental-based predictive models were independently trained and tested within a leave-site-out cross validation framework using a Support Vector Machine algorithm (LIBSVM) through the NeuroMiner software, and their predictions were subsequently combined through stacked generalization procedures. Results Our GMV-based model could predict follow up social outcome with 67.4% Balanced Accuracy (BAC) and significance (p=0.01), while it could not predict occupational outcome (46.6% BAC). On the other hand, our environmental-based model could discriminate both poor vs. good social and occupational outcomes at follow up with, respectively, 71% and 66.4% BACs, and significance (both p=0.0001). Specifically, the most reliable features in the environmental classifier were scores reflecting deviations from the normative values in childhood trauma and adult premorbid adjustment, for social outcome prediction, and in bullying experiences and late adolescence premorbid adjustment, for occupational outcome prediction. Only for social outcome prediction, stacked models outperformed individual classifiers’ predictions (74.3% BAC, p=0.0001). Discussion Environmental features seem to be more accurate than GMV in predicting both social and occupational outcomes in CHR. Interestingly, the predictions of follow up social and occupational outcomes rely on different patterns of occurrence of specific environmental adverse events, thus providing novel insights about how environmental adjustment disabilities, bullying and traumatic premorbid experiences may impact on different bad outcomes associated with the CHR status.

Background Formal thought disorder (FThD) has been associated with more severe illness courses and functional deficits in psychosis patients. Given these associations, it remains unclear whether the presence of FThD accounts for the heterogeneous presentation of psychoses, and whether it characterises a specific subgroup of patients showing prominent differential illness severity, neurocognitive and functional impairments already in the early stages of psychosis. Thus, our aim is 1) to evaluate whether there are stable subtypes of patients with Recent-Onset Psychosis (ROP) that are characterized by distinct FThD patterns, 2) to investigate whether this FThD-related stratification is associated with clinical, and neurocognitive phenotypes at an early stage of the disease, and 3) to explore correlation patterns among the FThD-related symptoms, functioning and neurocognition through network analysis. Methods 279 individuals experiencing ROP were recruited for this project as part of multi-site European PRONIA study. In the present study, FThD was assessed with conceptual disorganization, difficulty in abstract thinking, poverty of content of speech, increased latency of response and poverty of speech items from the Positive and Negative Symptom Scale (PANSS) and the Scale for the Assessment of Negative Symptoms (SANS). We first applied a multi-step clustering protocol comparing three clustering algorithms: (i) k-means, (ii) hierarchical clustering, and (iii) partitioning around medoids with the number of clusters ranging from 2 to 10. Our protocol runs following four checkpoints; (i) validity [ClValid package], (ii) re-evaluation of validity results and unbiased determination of the winning algorithm [NbClust package], (iii) stability test [ClusterStability package] and (iv) generalizability [predict.strength package] testing for the most optimal clustering solution. Thereafter, we investigated whether the identified FThD subgrouping solution was associated with neurocognitive performance, social and occupational functioning by using Welch’s two-sample t-test or Mann-Whitney-U test based on the distribution of data, and explored the interrelation of these domains with network analysis by using qgraph package with the spearman correlation matrix among variables. All analyses and univariate statistical comparisons were conducted with R version 3.5.2. We used the False Discovery Rate (FDR)37 to correct all P-values for the multiple comparisons. Results The k-means algorithm-based on two-cluster solution (FThD high vs. low) surviving these validity, stability and generalizability tests was chosen for further association tests and network analysis with core disease phenotypes. Patients in FThD high subgroup had lower scores in global (pfdr = 0.0001), social (pfdr < 0.0001) and role (pfdr < 0.0001) functioning, in semantic (pfdr < 0.0001) and phonological verbal fluency (pfdr = 0.0004), verbal short-term memory (pfdr = 0.0018) and abstract thinking (pfdr = 0.0099). Cluster assignment was not informed by the global disease severity (pfdr = 0.7786) but was associated with more pronounced negative symptoms (pfdr = 0.0001) in the FThD high subgroup. Discussion Our findings highlight how the combination of unsupervised machine learning algorithms with network analysis techniques may provide novel insight about the mappings between psychopathology, neurocognition and functioning. Furthermore, they point how FThD may represent a target variable for individualized psycho-, socio-, logotherapeutic interventions aimed at improving neurocognition abilities and functioning. Prospective studies should further test this promising perspective.

Background Evidence exists that cannabis consumption is associated with the development of psychosis. Further, continued cannabis use in individuals with recent onset psychosis (ROP) increases the risk for rehospitalization, high symptom severity and low general functioning. Clear inter-individual differences in the vulnerability to the harmful effects of the drug have been pointed out. These findings emphasize the importance of investigating the inter-individual variability in the role of cannabis use in ROP and to understand how cannabis use relates to subclinical conditions that predate the full-blown disease in clinical high-risk (CHR). Specific symptoms have been linked with continued cannabis consume, still research is lacking on how different factors contribute together to an elevated risk of cannabis relapse. Multivariate techniques have the capacity to extract complex patterns from high dimensional data and apply generalized rules to unseen cases. The aim of the study is therefore to assess the predictability of cannabis relapse in ROP and CHR by applying machine learning to clinical and environmental data. Methods All participants were recruited within the multi-site, longitudinal PRONIA study (www.pronia.eu). 112 individuals (58 ROP and 54 CHR) from 8 different European research centres reported lifetime cannabis consume at baseline and were abstinent for at least 4 weeks. We defined cannabis relapse as any cannabis consume between baseline and 9 months follow-up reported by the individual. To predict cannabis relapse, we trained a random forest algorithm implemented in the mlr package, R version 3.5.2. on 183 baseline variables including clinical symptoms, general functioning, demographics and consume patterns within a repeated-nested cross-validation framework. The data underwent pre-processing through pruning of non-informative variables and median-imputation for missing values. The number of trees was set to 500, while the number of nodes, sample fraction and mtry were optimized. All hyperparameters were tuned with the model-based optimization implemented in the mlrMBO R package. Results After 9 months 50 individuals (48 % ROP, 52 % CHR) have relapsed on cannabis use. Relapse was over all timepoints associated with more severe psychotic symptoms measured by PANSS positive and PANSS general (p Discussion Our results using a state-of-the-art machine learning approach suggest that the multivariate signature of baseline demographic and clinical data could predict follow up cannabis relapse above chance level in CHR and ROP. Our findings revealing that cannabis relapse is associated with more severe symptoms is in line with previous literature and emphasizes the need for targeted treatment towards abstinence from cannabis. The information of demographic and clinical patterns might be useful in order to specifically address therapeutic strategies in individuals at higher risk for relapse. This might include special programs for younger patients and taking into account the place of living, like urban areas. Further research is needed in order to validate our model in an independent sample.

Twenty percent of individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) develop the disorder within 2 years. Extensive research has explored the factors that differentiate those who develop psychosis and those who do not, but the results are conflicting.The current systematic review and meta-analysis comprehensively addresses the consistency and magnitude of evidence for non-purely genetic risk and protective factors associated with the risk of developing psychosis in CHR-P individuals. Random effects meta-analyses, standardized mean difference (SMD) and odds ratio (OR) were used, in combination with an established stratification of evidence that assesses the association of each factor and the onset of psychotic disorders (from class I, convincing evidence to class IV weak evidence), while controlling for several types of biases.A total of 128 original controlled studies relating to 26 factors were retrieved. No factors showed class I-convincing evidence. Two further factors were associated with class II-highly suggestive evidence: attenuated positive psychotic symptoms (SMD = 0.348, 95% CI: 0.280, 0.415) and global functioning (SMD = −0.291, 95% CI: −0.370, −0.211). There was class III-suggestive evidence for negative psychotic symptoms (SMD = 0.393, 95% CI: 0.317, 0.469). There was either class IV-weak or no evidence for all other factors.Our findings suggest that despite the large number of putative risk factors investigated in the literature, only attenuated positive psychotic symptoms, global functioning, and negative psychotic symptoms show suggestive evidence or greater for association with transition to psychosis. The current findings may inform the refinement of clinical prediction models and precision medicine in this field.

Background Disrupted communication involving large-scale neural networks is hypothesized to underlie the pathophysiology of schizophrenia, as demonstrated by impaired resting-state functional connectivity (rsFC). Seed-based functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies in subjects at increased risk of developing psychosis have begun to identify abnormalities in rsFC, although reported findings remain mixed. The aim of this study was to conduct a meta-analysis of seed-based resting-state fMRI studies to test whether high-risk subjects show rsFC alterations relative to healthy controls within and between the default mode network (DMN), control executive network (CEN), and salience network (SN). Methods A literature search was performed to identify seed-based resting-state fMRI studies comparing subjects with genetic risk factors, psychotic-like experiences, and clinical high-risk for psychosis to healthy controls. Then, coordinates of seed regions were extracted and categorized into networks by their location within a priori templates. Activation likelihood estimate (ALE) analysis examined the reported coordinates for hypo-connectivity and hyper-connectivity with each a priori network. Results The meta-analysis included 15 studies (774 subjects at risk, 628 healthy controls) on clinical high-risk for psychosis, 6 studies (123 subjects at risk, 147 healthy controls) on psychotic-like experiences, and 5 studies (173 subjects at risk, 256 healthy controls) on genetic risk factors of developing psychosis. We found specific patterns of hypo- and hyper-connectivity within and between large-scale networks. Our results showed that subjects with high-risk for psychosis were characterized by hypo-connectivity within the SN and CEN and hyper-connectivity within the DMN and CEN. Network seeds in the DMN, CEN, and SN displayed hyper-connectivity with regions in other networks. The DMN seeds displayed hypo-connectivity with regions in the CEN, while CEN and SN seeds displayed hypo-connectivity with regions in the DMN. Discussion This meta-analysis provides evidence that subjects at risk for psychosis present distinctive abnormalities of hyper- and hypo-connectivity within and between the DMN, CEN and SN, particularly implicating network dys-connectivity as a core deficit underlying the psychopathology of psychosis in the preclinical phase. More studies are needed to investigate whether subjects at risk to develop psychosis present patterns of dysfunction between the rsFC of healthy subjects and that of patients with established psychosis.

Background A multitude of clinical models to predict transition to psychosis in individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) have been proposed. However, only limited efforts have been made to systematically compare these models and to validate their performance in independent samples. Therefore, in this study we identified psychosis risk models based on information readily obtainable in general clinical settings, such as clinical and neuropsychological data, and compared their performance in the PRONIA study (Personalised Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management, www.pronia.eu) as an independent sample. Methods Of the 278 CHR participants in the PRONIA sample, 150 had available data until month 18 and were included in the validation of eleven psychosis prediction models identified through systematic literature search. Discrimination performance was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and compared to the performance of the prognosis of clinical raters. Psychosocial functioning was explored as an alternative outcome. Results Discrimination performance varied considerably across models (AUC ranging from 0.42 to 0.79). High model performance was associated with the inclusion of neurocognitive variables as predictors. Low model performance was associated with predictors based on dichotomized variables. Clinical raters performed comparable to the best data-driven models (AUC = 0.75). Combining raters’ prognosis and model-based predictions improved discrimination performance (AUC = 0.84), particularly for less experienced raters. One of the tested models predicted transition to psychosis and psychosocial outcomes comparably well. Discussion The present external validation study highlights the benefit of enriching clinical information with neuropsychological data in predicting transition to psychosis satisfactorily and with good generalizability across samples. Integration of data-driven risk models and clinical expertise may improve clinical decision-making in CHR for psychosis, particularly for less experienced raters. This external validation study provides an important step toward early intervention and the personalized treatment of psychotic disorders.

Background Machine learning classifications of first-episode psychosis (FEP) using neuroimaging have predominantly analyzed brain volumes. Some studies examined cortical thickness data, but most of them have used parcellation approaches with data from single sites, which limits claims of generalizability. To address these limitations, we conducted a large-scale, multi-site analysis of cortical thickness comparing parcellations and vertex-wise approaches. By leveraging the multi-site nature of the study, we further investigated how different demographical and site-dependent variables affected predictions. Finally, we assessed relationships between the predictions and clinical variables. Methods 428 subjects (147 females, mean age 27.14) with FEP and 448 (230 females, mean age 27.06) healthy controls were enrolled in 8 centers by the ClassiFEP group. All subjects underwent a structural MRI (sMRI) session and were clinically assessed. Cortical thickness parcellation (68 areas) and full cortical maps (20484 vertices) were extracted. Supervised (linear Support Vector Machine) classification was used to differentiate FEP from HC, within a repeated nested Cross-Validation (CV) framework through the NeuroMiner software. In both inner and outer CVs, a 10-fold CV cycle was employed. We performed repeated nested CV at the outer cross-validation cycle by randomly permuting the participants within their groups (10 permutations) and repeating the CV cycle for each of these permutations. As feature preprocessing, regression of covariates (age, sex, and site), Principal Component Analysis and Scaling were applied. All preprocessing steps were implemented within the CV. Further analyses were conducted by stratifying the sample for MRI scanner, sex and by performing random resampling with increasingly reduced sample sizes. Results Vertex-wise thickness maps outperformed parcellation-based methods with a balanced accuracy (BAC) of 66.2% and an Area Under the Curve of 72%, compared to a BAC of 59% and an Area Under the Curve of 61% obtained with the ROI-based approach. The two BACs were significantly different based on the McNemar’s Test. By stratifying our sample for MRI scanner, we increased the overall BAC to more than 70% and we also increased generalizability across sites. Temporal areas resulted the most influential regions in the classification. The predictive decision scores presented significant correlations with age at onset, duration of treatment and the presence of affective vs non-affective psychosis. Discussion Cortical thickness could represent a valid measure to classify FEP subjects, showing temporal areas as potential markers in the early stages of psychosis. The assessment of site-dependent variables allowed us to increase the across-site generalizability of the model, thus attempting to address an important machine learning limitation, especially in the framework of large multi-site cohort and big data analysis.

Background Psychotic disorders are associated with serious deterioration in functioning even before the first psychotic episode. Also on clinical high risk (CHR) states of developing a first psychotic episode, several studies reported a decreased global functioning. In a considerable proportion of CHR individuals, functional deterioration remains even after (transient) remission of symptomatic risk indicators. Furthermore, deficits in functioning cause immense costs for the health care system and are often more debilitating for individuals than positive symptoms. However in the past, CHR research has mostly focused on clinical outcomes like transition. Prediction of functioning in CHR populations has received less attention. Therefore, the current study aims at predicting functioning in CHR individuals at a single subject level applying multi pattern recognition to clinical data. Patients with a first depressive episode who frequently have persistent functional deficits comparable to patients in the CHR state were investigated in addition. Methods PRONIA (‘Personalized Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management’) is a prospective collaboration project funded by the European Union under the 7th Framework Programme (grant agreement n°602152). Considering a broad set of variables (MRI, clinical data, neurocognition, genomics and other blood derived parameters) as well as advanced statistical methods, PRONIA aims at developing an innovative multivariate prognostic tool enabling an individualized prediction of illness trajectories and outcome. 11 university centers in five European countries and in Australia (Munich, Basel, Birmingham, Cologne, Düsseldorf, Münster, Melbourne, Milan, Udine, Bari, Turku) participate in the evaluation of three clinical groups (subjects clinically at high risk of developing a psychosis [CHR], patients with a recent onset psychosis [ROP] and patients with a recent onset depression [ROD]) as well as healthy controls. In the current study, we analysed data of 114 CHR and 106 ROD patients. Functioning was measured by the ‘Global Functioning: Social and Role’ Scales (GF S/R). In a repeated, nested cross validation framework we trained a l1-regularized SVM to predict good versus bad outcome. Multivariate pattern recognition analysis allowed to identify most predictive variables from a multitude of clinical, environmental as well as sociodemographic potential predictors assessed in PRONIA. Results Based on the 5 to 20 identified most predictive features, prediction models revealed a balanced accuracy (BAC) up to 77/72 for social functioning in CHR/ROD patients and up to 73/69 for role functioning. These models showed satisfying performance of BACs up to 69/63 for social functioning and 67/60 for role functioning in an independent test sample. As expected, prior functioning levels were identified as main predictive factor but also distinct protective and risk factors were selected into the prediction models. Discussion Results suggest that especially prediction of the multi-faceted construct of role functioning could benefit from inclusion of a rich set of clinical variables. To the best of our knowledge this is the first study that has validated clinical prediction models of functioning in an independent test sample. Identification of predictive variables enables a much more efficient prognostic process. Moreover, understanding the mechanisms underlying functional decline and its illness related pattern might enable an improved definition of targets for intervention. Future research should aim at further maximisation of prediction accuracy and cross-centre generalisation capacity. In addition, other functioning outcomes as well as clinical outcomes need to be focused on.

Background Childhood maltreatment (CM) is a major psychiatric risk factor and leads to long-lasting physical and mental health implications throughout the affected individual’s lifespan. Nonetheless, the neuroanatomical correlates of CM and their specific clinical impact remain elusive. This might be attributed to the complex, multidimensional nature of CM as well as to the restrictions of traditional analysis pipelines using nosological grouping, univariate analysis and region-of-interest approaches. To overcome these issues, we present a novel transdiagnostic and naturalistic machine learning approach towards a better and more comprehensive understanding of the clinical and neuroanatomical complexity of CM. Methods We acquired our dataset from the multi-center European PRONIA cohort (www.pronia.eu). Specifically, we selected 649 male and female individuals, comprising young, minimally medicated patients with clinical high-risk states for psychosis as well as recent-onset of depression or psychosis and healthy volunteers. As part of our analysis approach, we created a new Matlab Toolbox, which performs multivariate Sparse Partial Least Squares Analysis in a robust machine learning framework. We employed this algorithm to detect multi-layered associations between combinations of items from the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ) and grey matter volume (GMV) and assessed their generalizability via nested cross-validation. The clinical relevance of these CM signatures was assessed by correlating them to a wide range of clinical measurements, including current functioning (GAF, GF), depressivity (BDI), quality of life (WHOQOL-BREF) and personality traits (NEO-FFI). Results Overall, we detected three distinct signatures of sexual, physical and emotional maltreatment. The first signature consisted of an age-dependent sexual abuse pattern and a corresponding GMV pattern along the prefronto-thalamo-cerebellar axis. The second signature yielded a sex-dependent physical and sexual abuse pattern with a corresponding GMV pattern in parietal, occipital and subcortical regions. The third signature was a global emotional trauma signature, independent of age or sex, and projected to a brain structural pattern in sensory and limbic brain regions. Regarding the clinical impact of these signatures, the emotional trauma signature was most strongly associated with massively impaired state- and trait-level characteristics. Both on a phenomenological and on a brain structural level, the emotional trauma pattern was significantly correlated with lower levels of functioning, higher depression scores, decreased quality of life and maladaptive personality traits. Discussion Our findings deliver multimodal, data-driven evidence for a differential impact of sexual, physical and emotional trauma on brain structure and clinical state- and trait-level phenotypes. They also highlight the multidimensional nature of CM, which consists of multiple layers of highly complex trauma-brain patterns. In broader terms, our study emphasizes the potential of machine learning approaches in generating novel insights into long-standing psychiatric topics.

Background Childhood trauma (CT) is associated with an increased risk for psychiatric disorders like major depression and psychosis. However, the pathophysiological relationship between CT, psychiatric disease and structural brain alterations is still unknown. Methods PRONIA (‘Personalized Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Mangement’) is a prospective collaboration project funded by the European Union under the 7th Framework Programme (grant agreement n° 602152). Considering a broad set of variables (sMRI, rsMRI, DTI, psychopathological, life event related and sociobiographic data, neurocognition, genomics and other blood derived parameters) as well as advanced statistical methods, PRONIA aims at developing an innovative multivariate prognostic tool enabling an individualized prediction of illness trajectories and outcome. Seven clinical centers in five European countries and in Australia participate in the evaluation of three clinical groups (subjects clinically at high risk of developing a psychosis (CHR), patients with a recent onset psychosis (ROP) and patients with a recent onset depression (ROD)) as well as healthy controls (HC). To investigate the high-dimensional patterns of CT experience, measured by the childhood trauma questionnaire (CTQ), in HC and our three patient groups (PAT) (n=643), we used a Support Vector Machine (SVM). Furthermore, we tested whether patient-specific CT exposure is associated with structural brain changes by VBM analyses. Results We found that patients and HC could be separated very well by their CTQ pattern, whereas the different patient groups showed no specific CTQ pattern. Furthermore, an association with extensive grey matter changes suggests an impact on brain maturation which may put individuals at increased risk for mental disease. Discussion We have demonstrated in this large multi-center cohort that adverse experiences in childhood contribute transdiagnostically to the riskr for developing a psychiatric disease. The observed association between CTQ scores and structural changes suggests an impact of adverse childhood experiences on brain development. Resulting alterations may add to a neurobiological vulnerability for depression and psychosis. A role of both features for other mental disorders could be assumed and warrants further investigation.

To date, the MRI-based individualized prediction of psychosis has only been demonstrated in single-site studies. It remains unclear if MRI biomarkers generalize across different centers and MR scanners and represent accurate surrogates of the risk for developing this devastating illness. Therefore, we assessed whether a MRI-based prediction system identified patients with a later disease transition among 73 clinically defined high-risk persons recruited at two different early recognition centers. Prognostic performance was measured using cross-validation, independent test validation, and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Transition outcomes were correctly predicted in 80% of test cases (sensitivity: 76%, specificity: 85%, positive likelihood ratio: 5.1). Thus, given a 54-month transition risk of 45% across both centers, MRI-based predictors provided a 36%-increase of prognostic certainty. After stratifying individuals into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups using the predictor’s decision score, the high- vs low-risk groups had median psychosis-free survival times of 5 vs 51 months and transition rates of 88% vs 8%. The predictor’s decision function involved gray matter volume alterations in prefrontal, perisylvian, and subcortical structures. Our results support the existence of a cross-center neuroanatomical signature of emerging psychosis enabling individualized risk staging across different high-risk populations. Supplementary results revealed that (1) potentially confounding between-site differences were effectively mitigated using statistical correction methods, and (2) the detection of the prodromal signature considerably depended on the available sample sizes. These observations pave the way for future multicenter studies, which may ultimately facilitate the neurobiological refinement of risk criteria and personalized preventive therapies based on individualized risk profiling tools.

Background There is urgent need to improve the limited prognostic accuracy of psychopathology-based classifications to predict the onset of psychosis in clinical high-risk (CHR) subjects for psychosis. However, as yet no reliable biological marker has been established to differentiate CHR subjects who will develop psychosis from those who will not. This study investigated abnormalities in graph-based gyrification connectome in CHR subjects and patients with first-episode psychosis (FEP) and tested the accuracy of this systems-based approach to predict the transition to psychosis among CHR individuals. Methods 44 healthy controls (HC), 63 at-risk mental state (ARMS) subjects without later transition to psychosis (ARMS-NT), 16 ARMS subjects with later transition (ARMS-T), and 38 antipsychotic-free patients with FEP were recruited from the specialized clinic for the early detection of psychosis at the Department of Psychiatry, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland. Gyrification-based structural covariance networks (connectomes) were constructed to quantify global integration, segregation and small-worldness. Extremely randomized trees with repeated, nested cross-validation was performed to differentiate ARMS-T from ARMS-NT individuals. Permutation testing was used to assess the significance of classification performance measures. Results Small-worldness is reduced in both ARMS-T and FEP patients, secondary to reduced integration and increased segregation in both groups. In addition, we also found that transitivity (segregation) was significantly higher in ARMS-T and FEP groups compared to both ARMS-NT and healthy controls. Using the connectome properties as features, we obtained a high classification accuracy of 90% (balanced accuracy: 81%, positive predictive value: 85%, negative predictive value: 92%.) All performance measures were highly significant as indicated by permutation tests (all p < 0.01). Discussion Our findings suggest that there is poor integration in the coordinated development of cortical folding in patients who develop psychosis. This study further indicates that gyrification-based connectomes might be a promising means to generate systems-based measures from anatomical data that improves individual prediction of psychosis transition in CHR subjects.

Background Present pharmacological treatment approaches in schizophrenia rest on “neuroleptic” drugs, all of which act as antagonists at dopamine D2/D3 receptors but additionally display major variability in their binding capacity to neurotransmitter receptors (Van Os & Kapur 2009). At present, the choice of any particular drug does not rest on any principled criteria: Once individual treatment has been started, therapeutic efficacy is monitored clinically, and a switch to a different drug is initiated when clear improvements remain absent after a few weeks. It is presently not possible to predict in advance which patients will respond well to a particular drug and who will experience little or no benefit (Case et al. 2011; Kapur et al. 2012). For instance, clozapine and olanzapine are often prescribed after other antipsychotics have shown to be ineffective in patients with schizophrenia or related disorders due to their pronounced side-effects. Both drugs, clozapine and olanzapine, share certain pharmacodynamic properties with comparatively low affinity towards dopamine D2-receptors, but very high affinity towards muscarinic receptors – a unique constellation that distinguishes them from other common antipsychotics. Importantly, previous studies have shown that a subgroup of schizophrenia patients might particularly benefit from these properties (Raedler et al. 2003, Scarr et al. 2009). Here, we present an ongoing observational study (COMPASS) which builds on these observations and addresses the question whether functional readouts of dopaminergic and muscarinic systems in individual patients could enable personalised treatment predictions. Guided by the dysconnection hypothesis of schizophrenia (Stephan et al., 2009), which postulates aberrant interactions between NMDA receptors and neuromodulators like dopamine/acetylcholine, the COMPASS study adopts a neuromodeling approach. The focus is on EEG/fMRI paradigms and computational models with empirically demonstrated sensitivity for altered function of NMDA, dopamine and muscarinic receptors, respectively. Methods To detect even small effect sizes, the study aims to recruit N=120 patients with schizophrenia who begin treatment with, switch to, or augment medication with olanzapine or clozapine. If possible, a replication sample (an additional N=120) will be recruited, too. Patients will be examined +/- 96h relative to treatment onset. Data acquisition encompasses the following measurements: Clinical interview, EEG (working memory, reward learning under volatility, auditory MMN under volatility, “resting”-state), MRI (optional; fMRI during auditory MMN under volatility, “resting”-state, and structural imaging), blood samples (genetic and biochemical analyses). After 2 and 8 weeks a clinical follow-up is conducted. Results The study is ongoing. Discussion The EEG/fMRI data will be analysed by computational models that infer functional states of glutamatergic, dopaminergic, and cholinergic systems (for review, Stephan et al. 2015). Model parameter estimates will serve as features in machine learning analyses of treatment prediction (Brodersen et al. 2014). If successful, this proof-of-concept study will lead to clinically useful tests for predicting the efficacy of clozapine/olanzapine prior to or during very early treatment. This could have a significant impact on clinical management as it would enable predicting, at an early stage, the therapeutic benefit for individual patients. Our neuromodeling approach to individual predictions may thus provide a principled basis for treatment decisions, help spare side-effects and enable informed switches in treatment strategy.

Background Psychotic disorders are associated with serious deterioration in functioning even before the first psychotic episode. Also on clinical high risk (CHR) states of developing a first psychotic episode, several studies reported a decreased global functioning. In a considerable proportion of CHR individuals, functional deterioration remains even after (transient) remission of symptomatic risk indicators. Furthermore, deficits in functioning cause immense costs for the health care system and are often more debilitating for individuals than other symptoms. However in the past, CHR research has mostly focused on clinical outcomes like transition and therefore, functioning in CHR patients is under-investigated. The current study aims at predicting functioning at a single subject level applying multi pattern recognition to clinical data for the first time. Methods PRONIA (‘Personalized Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management’) is a prospective collaboration project funded by the European Union under the 7th Framework Programme (grant agreement n° 602152). Considering a broad set of variables (sMRI, rsMRI, DTI, psychopathological, life event related and sociobiographic data, neurocognition, genomics and other blood derived parameters) as well as advanced statistical methods, PRONIA aims at developing an innovative multivariate prognostic tool enabling an individualized prediction of illness trajectories and outcome. Seven university centers in five European countries and in Australia (Munich, Basel, Birmingham, Cologne, Melbourne, Milan/Udine, Turku) participate in the evaluation of three clinical groups (subjects clinically at high risk of developing a psychosis [CHR], patients with a recent onset psychosis [ROP] and patients with a recent onset depression [ROD]) as well as healthy controls. In the current study, we analysed data of 114 CHR patients. Functioning was measured by the ‘Global Functioning: Social and Role’ Scales (GF S/R). Features were derived from the large pool of clinical data that were assessed in PRONIA including questionnaires measuring CHR criteria as well as psychopathology, family history of psychotic disorders or treatment and various self-rating scales. Feature Elimination method of a strict Wrapper was used to identify most predictive variables from the multitude of clinical data included into the analysis. Results Balanced Accuracy of predicting social functioning in CHR patients was acceptable (pooled cross-validation: BAC = 74.3%, Sens = 72.8%, Spec = 60.3%; leave-site-out cross-validation: BAC = 69.9%, Sens = 84.3%, Spec = 55.6%). In contrast, applying the strict wrapper model revealed worse prediction performance for role functioning. Which might indicate that predicting level of role functioning requires more information than social functioning. As expected, prior functioning levels were identified as main predictive factor but also distinct protective and risk factors were selected into the prediction models. Discussion Identifying single predictive variables is in purpose of a much more efficient prognostic process. Moreover, understanding the mechanisms underlying functional decline and its illness related pattern might enable an improved definition of targets for intervention. Future research should aim at further maximisation of prediction accuracy and cross-centre generalisation capacity. In addition, other functioning outcomes as well as clinical outcomes need to be focused on.

Background Neuro-cognitive deficits are a core feature of psychosis. In the clinical high risk stages of psychosis, neuro-cognitive deficits qualitatively affect the same functions while being quantitatively less marked compared to those in full-blown disorder. Therefore, cognitive impairments are considered to be an important intermediate phenotype for transition to psychosis. Partially overlapping deficits were also reported in depressive disorders, so it is important to identify deficits specifically associated to psychotic symptoms from those common to other conditions. We aimed to identify and differentiate cognitive deficits specifically associated to [i] psychopathology in general (i.e., presence of clinical diagnosis); [ii] psychotic symptoms; [iii] sub- and threshold levels of psychotic symptoms. Methods We compared four groups of participants within the project Personalised Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management (PRONIA; www.pronia.eu). The PRONIA Cognitive Battery (PCB) includes 10 tests selected as reliable measures of neuropsychological difficulties in patients at high-risk of psychosis. The scores were obtained from the PRONIA Discovery Sample, which included 707 participants: 278 healthy controls (HC); 138 recent-onset depression (ROD); 139 clinical high-risk (CHR); 152 recent-onset psychosis (ROP), tested in seven sites across Europe. At first the norms were calculated correcting the HC’s raw scores by sex, age, cognitive level, education, and mother language (English, Finnish, German, Italian, or other). Then, univariate analyses of variance with a priori contrasts were used for directly comparing [i] HC vs ROD/CHR/ROP; [ii] ROD vs CHR/ROP; [iii] CHR vs ROP. Results The difference in cognitive performance between the clinical groups (ROD, CHR, ROP) as compared to the HC [i], was shown in measures of: speed of execution (ωP2 range 0.016–0.123; all p≤0.035); sustained attention (ωP2: 0.024–0.080; p≤0.022); verbal fluency (ωP2: 0.020–0.031; p≤0.002); emotion recognition (ωP2=0.026; p=0.001); visuo-spatial (ωP2: 0.018–0.049; p≤0.006) and verbal (ωP2: 0.038–0.075; p

Structural brain abnormalities are central to schizophrenia (SZ), but it remains unknown whether they are linked to dysmaturational processes crossing diagnostic boundaries, aggravating across disease stages, and driving the neurodiagnostic signature of the illness. Therefore, we investigated whether patients with SZ (N = 141), major depression (MD; N = 104), borderline personality disorder (BPD; N = 57), and individuals in at-risk mental states for psychosis (ARMS; N = 89) deviated from the trajectory of normal brain maturation. This deviation was measured as difference between chronological and the neuroanatomical age (brain age gap estimation [BrainAGE]). Neuroanatomical age was determined by a machine learning system trained to individually estimate age from the structural magnetic resonance imagings of 800 healthy controls. Group-level analyses showed that BrainAGE was highest in SZ (+5.5 y) group, followed by MD (+4.0), BPD (+3.1), and the ARMS (+1.7) groups. Earlier disease onset in MD and BPD groups correlated with more pronounced BrainAGE, reaching effect sizes of the SZ group. Second, BrainAGE increased across at-risk, recent onset, and recurrent states of SZ. Finally, BrainAGE predicted both patient status as well as negative and disorganized symptoms. These findings suggest that an individually quantifiable "accelerated aging" effect may particularly impact on the neuroanatomical signature of SZ but may extend also to other mental disorders.

Background: Despite impressive advancements in early interventions in psychosis, there is an urgent need of robust neurobiological markers to improve the predictive value of psychosis transition. Available structural imaging literature in the field is undermined by several methodological caveats and a number of confounders such as exposure to antipsychotic treatment. Methods: Fourteen voxel-based morphometry studies of antipsychotic-naive subjects at enhanced clinical risk for psychosis (high risk [HR]) or experiencing a first-episode psychosis (FEP) were included. Formal meta-analysis of effect sizes and “signed differential mapping” voxel-based meta-analysis were combined to control the results for sample sizes, strength of individual findings, and confounding variables. Results: Formal effect size meta-analysis indicated consistent gray matter (GM) reductions both in subjects at enhanced clinical risk for psychosis and in first-episode subjects when compared with control groups. Voxel-based meta-analysis showed GM reductions in the temporal, limbic prefrontal cortex within the HR group and in the temporal insular cortex and cerebellum within the FEP group. Psychosis onset was characterized by GM decreases in temporal, anterior cingulate, cerebellar, and insular regions. GM alterations in the temporal regions directly related to severity of psychotic symptoms. There was no publication bias. Heterogeneity across studies was low. Sensitivity analyses confirmed robustness of the above results. Conclusions: Vulnerability to psychosis is associated with consistent GM decreases in prefrontal and temporolimbic areas. The onset of full disease is accompanied by temporoinsular, anterior cingulate, and cerebellar GM reductions. Neuroanatomical alterations in temporal regions may underlie the clinical onset of psychotic symptoms.

Background In psychiatric practice, when symptoms “come together” we call the resulting construct as a diagnosis. We believe that there is a disease process that binds together, enabling co-occurrence of varied symptoms. We use either diagnostic or syndromic labels to describe this construct (e.g. positive syndrome, negative syndrome, schizophrenia, at-risk mental state). An emerging idea, promoted by network theorists, is that symptoms may relate by their own intrinsic nature, with no external constructs bringing them together e.g. paranoia leads to social withdrawal, loss of appetite leads to loss of weight etc. This intrinsic organisation of symptom relationships can be studied using network models by applying graph theory to symptom data. Methods We recruited 63 subjects with at-risk mental state [on the basis of Melbourne PACE criteria] but no transition (ARMS-NT), 16 that later developed psychosis (ARMS-T) and 38 drug-naïve patients with first-episode psychosis (FEP) from Basel, Switzerland. Symptoms were measured using Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale. Clinical symptoms can be construed as a system of individual elements (24 nodes) and their relationship (24x23 possible edges) within a group. We estimate each individual’s contribution to the intrinsic organisation of symptoms using a jack-knife bias estimation procedure. Bias values for each pair of symptoms in an individual subject quantified the contribution of that subject to the overall within-group relationship for that symptom pair. Higher values meant greater relationship between the two given nodes in that subject, relative to the rest of the group. We then used Graph Analysis Toolbox, with a range of binarization thresholds based on cost-density of connectivity to extract adjacency matrices. Results None of the 24 individual symptoms of BPRS significantly differentiated ARMS-NT from ARMS-T, though a number of symptoms (suspiciousness, hallucinations, disorganisation, motor retardation, hostility and suicidality) showed a gradient of FEP>ARMS-T>ARMS-NT (F test, FDR corrected pARMS-T>ARMS-NT (except for modularity where FEP=ARMS-T). Post-hoc tests revealed significantly high clustering (Hedges’s g = 0.60, p

Background Schizotypy traits range from odd behaviors to symptoms that resemble full schizophrenia, although less severe. Previous studies associated different degrees of positive and negative schizotypal traits to variations in the persons’ cognitive profiles while others related them to the risk to develop psychosis. We hypothesize that similar pattern of positive and negative schyzoypy traits characterize individuals at risk of psychosis and patients meeting the criteria for recent onset psychosis, although with different degrees of severity. Also, both should differ from depressed patients. Moreover, specific combinations of schizotypy traits and neurocognitive alterations should be associated to the different psychopathological profiles. The final goal of the study is to identify candidate predictors of risk of psychosis that will be used as features in next machine learning analyses. Methods The present is a multi-centric study that was conducted as part of the project titled ‘Personalised Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management’ (PRONIA). 115 participants at high-risk for psychosis (CHR), 114 recent onset psychosis (ROP), 123 recent onset depression (ROD) and 252 healthy controls (HC) took part in the study. All were aged between 15 and 40 years. The participants filled the Wisconsin Schizotypy questionnaire, measuring positive (Magical Ideation Scale - MIS; Perceptual Aberration Scale - PAS) and negative schizotypy traits (Social Anhedonia Scale - SAnS; Physical Anhedonia Scale - PAnS). Moreover, they were administered the PRONIA Cognitive Battery (PCB), comprising measures of visuo-spatial dexterity and memory (Rey Figure, copy and delayed drawing), short-term memory (Digit Span - DS), Verbal Learning, Verbal Fluency, Attention (Continuous Performance Test - CPT, Digit Symbol Substitution Test - DSST), Emotions’ Recognition, General Intelligence (WAIS Vocabulary, Matrix Reasoning). Results We run i) a Multivariate Analysis of Covariance with ‘WSS subscales’ as dependent variable; ‘Group’ as between subject factor; ‘Age’ and ‘Gender’ as covariates; ii) a Multinomial logistic regression with ‘Group’ as dependent variable; HC ‘Group’ as reference parameter; ‘WSS subscales’ and scores at the PCB’s tests as predictors; ‘Age’ and ‘Gender’ as covariates. ROP and CHR reported both positive and negative schizotypy traits, although only the negative symptoms involving social aspects were clearly evident in CHR. Also, ROP and CHR differed for the positive symptoms, as they were present but at a lower level in CHR than in ROP. ROD instead scored high at the negative symptoms. Interestingly, ROP, CHR and ROD did not differ between each other for the negative symptoms, probably reflecting the effect of the psychopathology on the patients’ general motivation to life. The regressions analysis highlighted different patterns of associations of WSS and neurocognitive scores with the clinical status. In particular, the scores at the MIS, PAS and SanS combined with the Rey Figure (delayed drawing), predicted that the participants were CHR; the MIS, PAS and SAnS with measures of attention (CPT, DSST) predicted that the participant were ROP; the PAS; SAnS and short-term memory (DS) predicted to being ROD. Discussion Coherently with the hypotheses, different schizotypy traits or grade of severity characterized patients with distinct psychopathology profiles. Also, the association of WSS subscales with the cognitive measures differentiated between groups, with visuo-spatial long-term memory being associated to CHR, measures of attention relating to ROP and verbal short term memory relating to ROD. This makes these measures good candidates for the upcoming machine learning analyses.

Background: Reliable prognostic biomarkers are needed for the early recognition of psychosis. Recently, multivariate machine learning methods have demonstrated the feasibility to predict illness onset in clinically defined at-risk individuals using structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data. However, it remains unclear whether these findings could be replicated in independent populations. Methods: We evaluated the performance of an MRI-based classification system in predicting disease conversion in at-risk individuals recruited within the prospective FePsy (Fruherkennung von Psychosen) study at the University of Basel, Switzerland. Pairwise and multigroup biomarkers were constructed using the MRI data of 22 healthy volunteers, 16/21 at-risk subjects with/without a subsequent disease conversion. Diagnostic performance was measured in unseen test cases using repeated nested cross-validation. Results: The classification accuracies in the “healthy controls (HCs) vs converters,” “HCs vs nonconverters,” and “converters vs nonconverters” analyses were 92.3%, 66.9%, and 84.2%, respectively. A positive likelihood ratio of 6.5 in the converters vs nonconverters analysis indicated a 40% increase in diagnostic certainty by applying the biomarker to an at-risk population with a transition rate of 43%. The neuroanatomical decision functions underlying these results particularly involved the prefrontal perisylvian and subcortical brain structures. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that the early prediction of psychosis may be reliably enhanced using neuroanatomical pattern recognition operating at the single-subject level. These MRI-based biomarkers may have the potential to identify individuals at the highest risk of developing psychosis, and thus may promote informed clinical strategies aiming at preventing the full manifestation of the disease.

Introduction Diagnoses of anxiety and/or depression are common in subjects at Ultra-High Risk for Psychosis (UHR) and associated with extensive functional impairment. Less is known about the impact of affective comorbidities on the prospective course of attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS). Method Latent class mixed modelling identified APS trajectories in 331 UHR subjects assessed at baseline, 6, 12, and 24 months follow-up. The prognostic value of past, baseline, and one-year DSM-IV depressive or anxiety disorders on trajectories was investigated using logistic regression, controlling for confounders. Cox proportional hazard analyses investigated associations with transition risk. Results 46.8% of participants fulfilled the criteria for a past depressive disorder, 33.2% at baseline, and 15.1% at one-year follow-up. Any past, baseline, or one-year anxiety disorder was diagnosed in 42.9%, 37.2%, and 27.0%, respectively. Participants were classified into one of three latent APS trajectory groups: (1) persistently low, (2) increasing, and (3) decreasing. Past depression was associated with a higher risk of belonging to the increasing trajectory group, compared to the persistently low (OR = 3.149, [95%CI: 1.298–7.642]) or decreasing group (OR = 3.137, [1.165–8.450]). In contrast, past (OR = .443, [.179–1.094]) or current (OR = .414, [.156–1.094]) anxiety disorders showed a trend-level association with a lower risk of belonging to the increasing group compared to the persistently low group. Past depression was significantly associated with a higher risk of transitioning to psychosis (HR = 2.123, [1.178–3.828]). Conclusion A past depressive episode might be a particularly relevant risk factor for an unfavorable course of APS in UHR individuals. Early affective disturbances may be used to advance detection, prognostic, and clinical strategies.

Background The high prevalence of obsessive-compulsive symptoms (OCS) among subjects at Ultra-High Risk (UHR) for psychosis is well documented. However, the network structure spanning the relations between OCS and symptoms of the at risk mental state for psychosis as assessed with the Comprehensive Assessment of At Risk Mental States (CAARMS) has not yet been investigated. This article aimed to use a network approach to investigate the associations between OCS and CAARMS symptoms in a large sample of individuals with different levels of risk for psychosis. Method Three hundred and forty-one UHR and 66 healthy participants were included, who participated in the EU-GEI study. Data analysis consisted of constructing a network of CAARMS symptoms, investigating central items in the network, and identifying the shortest pathways between OCS and positive symptoms. Results Strong associations between OCS and anxiety, social isolation and blunted affect were identified. Depression was the most central symptom in terms of the number of connections, and anxiety was a key item in bridging OCS to other symptoms. Shortest paths between OCS and positive symptoms revealed that unusual thought content and perceptual abnormalities were connected mainly via anxiety, while disorganized speech was connected via blunted affect and cognitive change. Conclusions Findings provide valuable insight into the central role of depression and the potential connective component of anxiety between OCS and other symptoms of the network. Interventions specifically aimed to reduce affective symptoms might be crucial for the development and prospective course of symptom co-occurrence.