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Objectives: To investigate the prognostic utility of 28 serum biomarkers in systemic sclerosis (SSc), SSc-associated interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD) and clinically relevant disease subgroups., Methods: Participants with sera, high-resolution CT and lung function within 12 months of baseline were identified from the Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study. Baseline was the time of serum collection. Twenty-seven of the prespecified 28 serum biomarkers were analysed and biomarker associations with mortality and ILD progression were investigated in univariable and multivariable analyses, including within disease subgroups and combined with established risk factors for poorer prognosis in SSc., Results: A total of 407 participants were identified, 252 (61.9%) with SSc-ILD. The median (interquartile range) follow-up after biomarker measurement was 6.31 (3.11-9.22) years. Sixteen biomarkers were associated with increased mortality. High levels of VCAM-1 were most strongly associated with mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 3.55; 95% CI 2.37-5.33; P < 0.001]. Five additional biomarkers had an HR >2: SP-D (2.28, 1.57-3.31; P < 0.001), E-selectin (2.19, 1.53-3.14; P < 0.001), IL-6 (2.15, 1.50-3.09; P < 0.001), MMP-3 (2.05, 1.42-2.95; P < 0.001) and ET-1 (2.03, 1.40-2.92; P < 0.001). Eleven biomarkers were independently associated with mortality following adjustment for sex, age and baseline forced vital capacity (FVC%predicted). Three biomarkers were associated with ILD progression at 1-year follow-up: CXCL4 (odds ratio 2.67, 1.46-4.88; P = 0.001), MMP-1 (2.56, 1.43-4.59; P = 0.002) and ET-1 (2.18, 1.24-3.83; P = 0.007)., Conclusion: Multiple biomarkers, especially VCAM-1, E-selectin, SP-D and CXCL4, provide prognostic utility beyond that of established risk factors for patients with SSc., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.)

Objective: To describe the frequency of progressive pulmonary fibrosis (PPF) in an incident cohort of systemic sclerosis (SSc)-related interstitial lung disease (ILD) and its impact on survival., Methods: Incident ILD was defined as the new development of characteristic fibrotic changes on chest HRCT scan. PPF was defined as per the 2022 American Thoracic Society. Determinants of PPF were identified using generalised estimating equations. Impact on survival was analysed using accelerated failure time regression modelling., Results: Of our incident SSc-ILD cases, 38.8% (n = 180) experienced PPF within a 12-month period after ILD diagnosis. Determinants of PPF included older age (OR 1.02, 95%CI 1.00-1.03, P = 0.011), dcSSc (OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.06-2.25, P = 0.024) and SSc-specific antibodies (anticentomere antibody OR 0.51, 95%CI 0.29-0.91, P = 0.021 and anti-Scl-70 antibody OR 1.46, 95%CI 1.01-2.09, P = 0.043). Raised CRP was numerically associated with PPF but did not reach statistical significance (OR 1.29, 95%CI 0.99-1.68, P = 0.064) nor did GORD or dysphagia (OR 1.18, 95%CI 0.57-2.42, P = 0.658 and OR 1.17, 95%CI 0.57-2.40, P = 0.664, respectively). The presence of PPF significantly impacted survival in SSc-ILD (hazard ratio 2.66, 95%CI 1.59-4.41, P < 0.001)., Conclusions: PPF occurred in a third of our incident SSc-ILD cohort; however, its occurrence was significantly associated with mortality indicating an at-risk group who may be suitable for earlier introduction of immunosuppressive and/or antifibrotic therapy., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objectives: To quantify the frequency and impact of malnutrition in systemic sclerosis (SSc), as diagnosed by the Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition (GLIM) criteria, based on weight loss, body mass index (BMI) and muscle atrophy., Methods: Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study participants meeting ACR/EULAR criteria for SSc with ≥1 concurrent weight and height measurement were included. Chi-squared tests, two-sample t-tests or Wilcoxon rank-sum tests were used for between-group comparison as appropriate. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to establish the determinants of malnutrition diagnosis. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard models were used for survival analyses, based on malnutrition diagnosis, and individual GLIM criteria (% weight loss, BMI thresholds and presence of muscle atrophy)., Results: In this study of 1903 participants, 43% were diagnosed with malnutrition according to GLIM criteria, of whom 33% had severe malnutrition. Participants diagnosed with malnutrition were older, and more likely to have dcSSc, higher SSc severity scores and RNA polymerase-3 positivity. Gastrointestinal (GI) involvement, multimorbidity, cardiopulmonary disease, raised inflammatory markers, hypoalbuminaemia and anaemia were more common in malnourished participants (p< 0.01). Multimorbidity (OR1.6, 95%CI1.2-2.0, p< 0.01), pulmonary arterial hypertension (OR2.1, 95%CI1.4-2.0, p< 0.01) and upper GI symptoms (OR1.6, 95%CI1.3-2.0, p< 0.01) were all associated with malnutrition.Health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) and physical function were poorer in malnourished participants. Survival was worse in those with malnutrition after adjusting for age, sex and dcSSc (HR 1.4, 95%CI1.1-1.7, p< 0.01)., Conclusions: Malnutrition is common in SSc and confers poorer survival, HRQoL and physical function., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.)

Objective: To identify those with concurrent pulmonary hypertension (PH) and interstitial lung disease (ILD) in systemic sclerosis (SSc) and determine their disease severity, therapeutic approach, and survival., Methods: Consecutive SSc patients enrolled in the Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study (ASCS) who were diagnosed on right heart catherisation with pulmonary hypertension were included. Logistic regression was used to determine the associations of ILD with PH hemodynamic parameters and therapeutic approach. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to estimate survival., Results: Of 1,883 SSc patients, 164 (8.7%) developed incident PH over a median follow up of 4.3 (1.7-7.9) years. Of these, 43.9% had concurrent ILD at PH diagnosis (PH-ILD) and 56.1% had Group 1 PAH. Extensive ILD was present at PH diagnosis in 40.3%. Despite these distinct PH cohorts, a similar frequency of each PH cohort was treated with vasodilatory therapy at PH diagnosis, regardless of the presence or severity of ILD. The majority (87.5%) of those with extensive ILD and PH received upfront vasodilatory therapy at PH diagnosis with no difference in its tolerability or therapy cessation compared with Group 1 PAH. Although vasodilator therapy was not associated with a survival advantage in those with extensive ILD, its use was associated with an improvement in symptoms, physical function, and quality of life (QoL)., Conclusion: Despite vasodilator therapy, survival in SSc-PH is poor, with the presence of concurrent ILD associated with worse survival. Although vasodilator therapy commenced at PH diagnosis does not portray an improved survival in PH with extensive ILD, it appears well tolerated and may improve symptoms, physical function, and QoL., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objectives: Damage accrual in SSc can be tracked using the Scleroderma Clinical Trials Consortium Damage Index (DI). Our goal was to develop a prediction model for damage accrual in SSc patients with early disease., Methods: Using patients with <2 years disease duration from Canada and Australia as a derivation cohort, and from the Netherlands as a validation cohort, we used group-based trajectory modelling (GBTM) to determine 'good' and 'bad' latent damage trajectories. We developed a prediction model from this analysis and applied it to patients from derivation and validation cohorts. We plotted the actual DI trajectories of the patients predicted to be in 'good' or 'bad' groups., Results: We found that the actual trajectories of damage accumulation for lcSSc and dcSSc were very different, so we studied each subset separately. GBTM found two distinct trajectories in lcSSc and three in dcSSc. We collapsed the two worse trajectories in the dcSSc into one group and developed a prediction model for inclusion in either 'good' or 'bad' trajectories. The performance of models using only baseline DI and sex was excellent with ROC AUC of 0.9313 for lcSSc and 0.9027 for dcSSc. Using this model, we determined whether patients would fall into 'good' or 'bad' trajectory groups and then plotted their actual trajectories which showed clear differences between the predicted 'good' and 'bad' cases in both derivation and validation cohorts., Conclusions: A simple model using only cutaneous subset, baseline DI and sex can predict damage accumulation in early SSc., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objective: To determine the frequency of self-reported occupational exposure to silica in SSc patients enrolled in the Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study, and to compare the disease characteristics of the silica-exposed patients with those of the non-exposed patients., Method: Data collected over a 12-year period from 1670 SSc patients were analysed. We compared the demographic and clinical characteristics of those who reported occupational silica exposure with those who did not. A subgroup analysis of male patients was performed, as well as a multivariable analysis of correlates of silica exposure., Results: Overall, 126 (7.5%) of the cohort reported occupational silica exposure. These individuals were more likely to be male (73 of 231, i.e. 31.6% males exposed) and to have worked in mining and construction industries. Those who reported silica exposure were younger at the onset of SSc skin involvement [odds ratio (OR) 0.9, P = 0.02], of male gender (OR 14.9, P < 0.001), have joint contractures (OR 1.8, P = 0.05) and have higher physical disability as defined by scleroderma HAQ (OR 1.4, P = 0.01)., Conclusion: The highest percentage of silica exposure was found in males. These patients were more likely to have the presence of certain clinical manifestations and Scl-70 antibody, which is known to confer a poor prognosis. These findings support the association between occupational silica exposure and the subsequent development of SSc. Further investigation is required to describe the range of clinical manifestations and disease course, including prognosis and treatment response, in those diagnosed with occupationally induced SSc compared with idiopathic SSc., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objective: To quantify the burden of interstitial lung disease (ILD) in SSc., Methods: Clinical data for SSc patients enrolled in the Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study were linked with healthcare databases for the period 2008-2015. ILD was defined by characteristic fibrotic changes on high-resolution CT (HRCT) lung, while severity was defined by the extent lung involvement on HRCT (mild <10%, moderate 10-30%, severe >30%). Determinants of healthcare cost were estimated using logistic regression., Results: SSc-ILD patients utilized more healthcare resources, including hospitalization, emergency department presentation and ambulatory care services, than those without ILD with a total cost per patient of AUD$48 368 (26 230-93 615) vs AUD$33 657 (15 144-66 905), P<0.001) between 2008-2015. Healthcare utilization was associated with an annual median (25th-75th) excess cost per SSc-ILD patient compared with those without ILD of AUD$1192 (807-1212), P<0.001. Increasing ILD severity was associated with significantly more healthcare utilization and costs with an annual excess cost per patient with severe ILD compared with mild ILD of AUD$2321 (645-1846), P<0.001. ILD severity and the presence of coexistent PAH were the main determinants of overall healthcare cost above median for this SSc-ILD cohort (OR 5.1, P<0.001, and OR 2.6, P=0.01, respectively). Furthermore, SSc-ILD patients reported worse physical HRQoL compared with those without ILD [34.3 (10.5) vs 39.1 (10.8), P<0.001], with a progressive decline with increasing ILD severity (P=0.002)., Conclusion: SSc-ILD places a large burden on the healthcare system and the patient through poor HRQoL in addition to incremental healthcare resource utilization and associated direct cost., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objectives: Our aim was to describe the burden of early dcSSc in terms of disability, fatigue and pain in the European Scleroderma Observational Study cohort, and to explore associated clinical features., Methods: Patients completed questionnaires at study entry, 12 and 24 months, including the HAQ disability index (HAQ-DI), the Cochin Hand Function Scale (CHFS), the Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy-fatigue and the Short Form 36 (SF36). Associates examined included the modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS), current digital ulcers and internal organ involvement. Correlations between 12-month changes were also examined., Results: The 326 patients recruited (median disease duration 11.9 months) displayed high levels of disability [mean (s.d.) HAQ-DI 1.1 (0.83)], with 'grip' and 'activity' being most affected. Of the 18 activities assessed in the CHFS, those involving fine finger movements were most affected. High HAQ-DI and CHFS scores were both associated with high mRSS (ρ = 0.34, P < 0.0001 and ρ = 0.35, P < 0.0001, respectively). HAQ-DI was higher in patients with digital ulcers (P = 0.004), pulmonary fibrosis (P = 0.005), cardiac (P = 0.005) and muscle involvement (P = 0.002). As anticipated, HAQ-DI, CHFS, the Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy and SF36 scores were all highly correlated, in particular the HAQ-DI with the CHFS (ρ = 0.84, P < 0.0001). Worsening HAQ-DI over 12 months was strongly associated with increasing mRSS (ρ = 0.40, P < 0.0001), decreasing hand function (ρ = 0.57, P < 0.0001) and increasing fatigue (ρ = -0.53, P < 0.0001)., Conclusion: The European Scleroderma Observational Study highlights the burden of disability in early dcSSc, with high levels of disability and fatigue, associating with the degree of skin thickening (mRSS). Impaired hand function is a major contributor to overall disability., (© The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com)

Objective: To evaluate work productivity and its economic burden in SSc patients., Methods: Consecutive SSc patients enrolled in the Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study were mailed questionnaires assessing employment (Workers' Productivity and Activity Impairment Questionnaire and a custom-made questionnaire) and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) (36-item Short Form Health Survey and Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System 29). Linear regression methods were used to determine factors associated with work productivity., Results: Among 476 patients submitting responses, 55.2% <65 years of age were employed. Unemployed patients were older at the time of survey completion (57.1 vs 53.7 years; P < 0.001) and had longer disease duration from first SSc clinical manifestation (16.2 vs 14.9 years; P = 0.01) than employed patients. The mean age at unemployment onset was 13.2 years below the average Australian retirement age. Of those working in the week prior to completing the survey, 16.0% reported missing work (absenteeism) due to their SSc, accounting for 32.9% of their working week. Reduced productivity while at work (presenteeism) accounted for 22% of their working week. Annual costs per patient as a consequence of unemployment and reduced productivity equated to a total of AUD$67 595.40. Factors independently associated with reduced work productivity were presence of synovitis and sicca symptoms, while tertiary education protected against work impairment. Patients with low HRQoL scores also had low work productivity., Conclusion: SSc is associated with considerable unemployment and reduced productivity, which in turn is associated with a substantial economic burden and poor HRQoL. Raising awareness and identifying modifiable factors are possible ways of reducing this burden., (© The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com)

Objectives: In a multi-centre study, we sought to determine whether extent of disease on high-resolution CT (HRCT) lung, reported using a simple grading system, is predictive of decline and mortality in SSc-related interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD), independently of pulmonary function tests (PFTs) and other prognostic variables., Methods: SSc patients with a baseline HRCT performed at the time of ILD diagnosis were identified. All HRCTs and PFTs performed during follow-up were retrieved. Demographic and disease-related data were prospectively collected. HRCTs were graded according to the percentage of lung disease: >20%: extensive; <20%: limited; unclear: indeterminate. Indeterminate HRCTs were converted to limited or extensive using a forced vital capacity threshold of 70%. The composite outcome variable was deterioration (need for home oxygen or lung transplantation), or death., Results: Among 172 patients followed for mean (s.d.) of 3.5 (2.9) years, there were 30 outcome events. In Weibull multivariable hazards regression modelling, baseline HRCT grade was independently predictive of outcome, with an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 3.0, 95% CI 1.2, 7.5 and P = 0.02. In time-varying covariate models (based on 1309 serial PFTs and 353 serial HRCTs in 172 patients), serial diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide by alveolar volume ratio (ml/min/mmHg/l) (aHR = 0.4; 95% CI 0.3, 0.7; P = 0.001) and forced vital capacity (dl) (aHR = 0.9; 95% CI 0.8, 0.97; P = 0.008), were also strongly predictive of outcome., Conclusion: Extensive disease (>20%) on HRCT at baseline, reported using a semi-quantitative grading system, is associated with a three-fold increased risk of deterioration or death in SSc-ILD, compared with limited disease. Serial PFTs are informative in follow-up of patients.