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Paraiba State has a climate characterized by spatial and temporal irregularity of rainfall, which causes climate disasters. It is also known that the behavior of rainfall in Paraiba State is very oscillating among the microregions. To analyze this behavior, in this paper, a study was proposed with the intention of investigating the dynamics of regionalized variables. For this, two fundamental techniques that are part of the geostatistical methodology were used, semivariogram and kriging. The present study aimed to map the microregions of the State regarding rainfall during the Rainy Quarter using a geostatistical approach, seeking thereby to identify which of these microregions are at risk due to low amounts of rainfall. Using the probability map, we observed that the microregions Cariri/Curimatau, Agreste and Brejo are at risk because there is a high probability for the median level of rainfall during the Rainy Quarter (February, March and April) to be between 50 and 100 mm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]