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This paper develops a general equilibrium model to examine the short-run and long-run optimal privatization policies. By assuming that all firms are public firms initially, the paper focuses on how the degree of product differentiation γ and the average efficiency of the industry influence the determination of the optimal privatization policy. The paper shows that privatization decreases the more efficient firms' outputs while increases the less efficient firms' outputs in the short run, and reduces all firms' outputs in the long run. The paper also shows that the larger is γ and the smaller is the number of firms, the more privatized will be the public firm in the short run. Moreover, as γ or the entry barrier f E is sufficiently small, full privatization is the best policy in the long run. On the contrary, as γ and f E are large enough, partial privatization is optimal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes whether fiscal policy in South Asia amplifies or smoothens business cycle fluctuations. It estimates several econometric models to explore the cyclicality of government spending and tax buoyancy. In South Asia, tax revenue increases less than one to one with changes in gross domestic product (GDP), but public spending increases more than proportionally. For each percentage point change in GDP growth, government expenditure changes by 1.3 percentage points. While changes in tax revenue have no significant impact on economic activity, the government spending multiplier is positive and significant: each additional US dollar (USD) of spending leads to an immediate increase in GDP of 0.2 USD and to an increase of 0.4 USD in the medium run. The impact of public spending on economic activity is entirely due to capital expenditure, which is also more procyclical. Procyclical public spending and a positive expenditure multiplier imply that fiscal policy in South Asia amplifies boom‐and‐bust cycles. These results are in line with those of other emerging markets and developing economies and robust to different model specifications and estimation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the structure and estimation of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Kenya for the year 2014. Among its specificities, this SAM includes a very high disaggregation of the agri‐food sector and accounts for the double role of households as producers and consumers. Accounting for these characteristics is crucial to provide robust socioeconomic analysis in the context of developing countries. Indeed, this type of database is valuable to perform ex‐ante evaluations of economic policies with various economic models and techniques. In this paper, we present an application with a linear multiplier analysis (backward linkages and value chain decomposition). The results show the capacity of the primary sector in Kenya to generate value added and employment, with this growth distributed more intensely in rural households whose main livelihood is semi‐subsistence agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main aim of this paper is to empirically test the effect of both public consumption and investment on the exchange rate in the Mexican economy. Recent increasing literature on the topic has pointed out that effects in either direction of disaggregated public expenditure on the exchange rate can be expected. Therefore, we investigate this using a system of cointegrated equations. The simulations' results suggest that expansions of government consumption leave unchanged the real exchange rate and depreciate the nominal one; on the contrary, government investment also produces a nominal depreciation, and only large shocks produce small real appreciations. These movements of the exchange rate are in any case negligible. At the economic policy level, the results support the use of fiscal policy to achieve growth and developmental goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the empirical trade‐offs between equity and efficiency of various instruments of welfare state fiscal policies. To this end, we present and estimate different systems of structural equations and their error components through which these fiscal policies affect redistribution and economic growth. The empirical results, obtained by using a panel data of 35 high‐ and upper‐middle‐income countries over the period 1980–2014, suggest that not all policies depress economic growth rates. In relation to cash transfer variables, we can observe a significant empirical trade‐off of old‐age‐related transfers. However, we do not find a significant equity–efficiency trade‐off for working‐age transfers. This variable has only a significant and positive effect in the redistribution equation, but does not affect the economic growth rate. If we consider measures of direct taxes, we find a significant and important trade‐off for social contributions, and to a lesser extent for income taxes. We do not find a significant trade‐off for capital taxes. These taxes only have a significant and negative unexpected effect on redistribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the socially optimal privatization policies under the setting of international mixed duopoly. We find that partial privatization is socially optimal under Cournot competition and private leadership competition, whereas full nationalization is socially optimal under public leadership competition. Moreover, the equilibrium social welfare under private leadership competition is higher than that observed under Cournot competition and that observed under private leadership competition, which differs from the findings of Matsumura (). We also show that the endogenous timing game has a subgame perfect Nash equilibrium outcome, under which the government chooses a partial privatization policy, and private leadership competition emerges as the optimal output decision sequence of firms. An important policy implication from this paper is that the government should partially privatize the public firm and facilitate the emergence of private leadership competition in an international mixed market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does the effect of international trade on income growth depend on the economy’s level of development? More specifically, is trade more beneficial to lower income economies? Does trade contribute to a smaller international income inequality? The present paper seeks to answer these questions by employing the empirical model of Frankel and Romer (1999 ), which shows trade increases income growth in a cross section of 150 countries. We find evidence in support of the hypothesis that international trade benefits the lower income economies more than it benefits the higher income economies. This finding is robust in the presence of control variables including distance from the equator and institutional quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The World Bank recommends “ideas, not money” as a guiding principle to donors for dealing with badly governed countries. This paper challenges that principle on the basis of a study of the evolution in Uganda of pro-growth policies in the early to mid 1990s and pro-poor policies in the late 1990s. The analysis of Uganda’s experience with aid is accommodated within the theoretical framework of a principal–agent conditionality game, in which policy objectives of the recipient (the agent) evolve over time. The key finding of the paper is that the apparent conditionality failure of the period 1987–91 has paved the way for later reform. Financial aid given during this period suspended the necessity of reforms and bought donor proximity to recipient policy deliberations, as a result of both of which the policy learning could take place that led to later successful reform measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The emerging market crises of the past decade have led some observers to question the wisdom of a completely open capital account. But even if capital controls are desirable, empirical evidence is needed to demonstrate when and under what circumstances restrictions are effective. This paper investigates this issue for Brazil. Much analysis of policy effectiveness has been conducted with vector autoregressions. The validity of policy inference based on this technique has been cast into doubt, so this paper employs a more “narrative” method, modeling flows to Brazil as ARMAX processes. This approach yields the interesting result that controls can be effective when the reaction of financial market participants to restrictions is taken into account, and derivatives and debt market activities curtailed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relationship between inflation and relative price variability ( RPV) by using provincial level data from China. The data contains three different inflation regimes and evidence of smooth transition is statistically prominent and the province-specific time-varying marginal impact of inflation on RPV varies substantially across inflation regimes. The inflation- RPV linkage is stronger when inflation is moderately high, but tends to fade out and might eventually disappear when inflation is steadily low. The policy implication of this result is that inflation targets should be set within a range in which the inflation- RPV link is the weakest (i.e. low-inflation regime) to minimize undesirable price dispersion induced by inflation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses monetary policy in a New Keynesian open economy subject to commodity price fluctuations. We review theoretical results that imply that stabilizing the producer price index ( PPI) is optimal only under special circumstances. In a calibrated version of the model, PPI targeting is compared against a policy that stabilizes a forecast of the consumer price index. The results depend on model specifics, especially elasticities of substitution and the structure of international asset markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we empirically test the determinants of growth, as derived from a semi-endogenous growth model, in terms of its poverty-reducing effects. We base our empirical analysis of the growth and distribution effect of economic policies on a panel data set of 59 developing countries, divided into two subgroups, and a sample period ranging from 1960 to 2004. For purposes of estimation we make use of the generalized methods of moments ( GMM) system estimator. The estimations reveal a poverty-reducing effect of investment. In contrast population growth induces higher poverty. The import of knowledge is growth enhancing only for countries at a higher stage of development-meanwhile the positive growth effect of an increasing democratization is limited to the poor developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The saving behavior of temporary migrants when the duration of their stay abroad is set by the immigration policy of the host country is studied in this paper. The focus is on the implied flow of savings back to the source country and how it depends on migration costs, duration of the work permit, and international wage, interest and price-level differentials. The amount of time that migrants are allowed to work in the host country is shown to be a key policy variable that affects the flow of savings repatriated to the source country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies how the interactions between the structure of product demand and relative wages affect the incidence of child labor. One sector (the agrarian) produces a homogeneous good, and the other (the modern) produces a vertically differentiated product. The modern sector is segmented according to quality: high-quality varieties are produced by formal firms which employ only adult labor, whereas low-quality varieties are produced by informal firms which employ child labor as well. Differences in tastes and incomes across households generate demand for both high-quality and low-quality varieties. Stricter enforcement of child-labor regulations and increases in minimum wages can have beneficial effects regarding the incidence of child labor and the size of the formal sector. However, since these policies have undesirable welfare effects among segments of wage-earning households, they may not garner the necessary political support. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gender inequality and the lack of gender development are major problems in developing countries. Neoclassical economics has generally argued that economic development will greatly enhance gender development. However, more recent work has emphasized the role of institutions. In this paper, a distinction is made between malleable institutions and those that change only over long periods of time. Empirical estimations of the impacts of economic development, malleable institutions, and hard-to-change institutions on gender development are carried out. The results indicate that both economic development and reform of malleable institutions are important determinants of relative gender performance. However, non-malleable institutions and cultural practices limit the impact that reform and economic development can have on relative gender performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most of the empirical studies that analyze the impact of corruption on investment have three common features: they employ country-level data on investment, corruption is measured at the country level, and data for countries from several regions are pooled together. This paper uses firm-level data on investment and measures corruption at the firm and country level, and allows the effect of corruption to vary by region. Our dependent variable is firms' investment growth and we employ six measures of corruption from four different sources—two firm-level measures and four country-level measures. We find that the effect of corruption on investments varies significantly across regions: corruption has a negative and significant effect on investment growth for firms in Transition countries but has no significant impact for firms in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa. Furthermore, for Transition countries, corruption is the most important determinant of investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers a two-country, three-good economy in which one country imposes tariffs on import goods at a uniform rate, while the other country engages in free trade. In such an economy, we examine the welfare effects of changing tariff rates toward differential tariffs from uniform tariffs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the circumstances under which foreign aid can immiserize a small, tariff-distorted economy, highlighting the role played by the nontraded sector in generating this outcome. An inflow of aid, provided in the form of an increase in the capital stock, can reduce real income of a small, tariff-distorted economy if: (i) the inflow results in an increase in the price of the nontraded good and the nontraded good and imports are sufficiently strong complements in demand; or (ii) if the inflow leads to a reduction in the price of the nontraded good and the nontraded good and imports are substitutes in demand, provided the degree of substitutability is not too large. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The primary aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between school attainment, school completion, and economic development. In doing so it also examines the effect of other macroeconomic variables on school attainment and completion. Estimation is conducted using a panel dataset of 138 countries. Our results show that income levels, government expenditure on education, and political instability all have significant effects on school completion and attainment. In addition these variables have different effects on male and female schooling. Our results have important policy implications and in particular allow policymakers to identify different instruments to target the problem of non-completion of schooling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The implications of the division of labor, capital, and technology for economic growth have long been a fundamental issue in development economics. This paper employs the bounds testing approach to cointegration to examine the relationship between the division of labor, capital accumulation, communication technology, and economic growth for China over the period 1952–99. We find that in the long run, capital stock and the division of labor both have statistically significant positive effects on growth, while in the short run the effects are not significantly positive. Telecommunication technology, rather surprisingly, has a statistically insignificant impact on growth both in the long run and in the short run. Our findings indicate that there exists a long run equilibrium relationship between capital and the division of labor on the one hand, and economic growth on the other, thereby lending support to the division of labor theory of growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Privatization has been one of the significant public policies adopted in the last two decades. Previous studies have focussed on efficacy gains at the firm and industry levels. This paper intends to reconsider the distributive impacts of privatization on the economy as a whole from a theoretical perspective. Specifically, it supposes an economy with two goods, two producers and two consumers, in which it is assumed that one of the consumers is not able to obtain one good that is regarded as a necessity. Since one basis of government intervention is to provide necessity to people who would not otherwise be able to obtain it, government intervention into production is assumed to satisfy this purpose. Using comparative statics, the paper analyzes how the welfare of two consumers is affected by this intervention, and shows that intervention can increase the welfare of some consumers and social welfare in general. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates fiscal policy sustainability in Peru, the Philippines, South Africa, Thailand, and Venezuela using competing methodologies. Standard unit roots and cointegration analyses do not endorse the validity of the intertemporal budget constraint. In contrast, to varying degrees across countries, alternative testing employing a fiscal policy reaction function indicates sustainability defined as surplus adjustments in response to higher debt-to-income ratios. Corresponding debt-dynamics analyses show that corrective measures were put in place to revert non-sustainable trends in government debt. However, ancillary variables in the debt modeling produce statistically weak evidence of procyclical fiscal behavior in the Latin American countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we use a large dataset to explore whether the liberalization of trade in services is beneficial for the international trade in goods. We find empirical evidence supporting this notion. We investigate which types of trade in services are more important for the international trade in goods and find that trade in transportation and communication services generate the largest impacts on trade in goods. We also investigate which types of trade in goods are likely to benefit from the liberalization of trade in services and find that, under the 2-digit ISTC classification, all the categories are likely to exhibit a positive impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model with status-seeking agents. We show that the introduction of status-seeking behavior brings about new properties in equilibrium dynamics. While there exists a continuum of steady states in the standard dynamic models, the present framework demonstrates that, under some conditions, there uniquely exists an incompletely specialized steady state, which is locally saddle-point stable. Therefore, catching-up and overtaking phenomena seen in economic development can be explained, and comparative statics analysis also is made possible. Our comparative statics analysis illustrates, for example, that trade pattern is determined in the Heckscher–Ohlin manner; the patient country acts just like a capital abundant one to export the capital-intensive good. Furthermore, as distinct from the existing literature, the present study shows that the existence of an incompletely specialized steady state can be ensured even if the two countries conduct different policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents a unified treatment of optimal trade policy for a small country. The well-known results for duopoly and competitive markets emerge as benchmark cases of the authors’ model. In addition, it is shown that changes in market structure have nonmonotonic effects on optimal tariffs. The results suggest that the recent reduction of tariffs in eastern Europe is consistent with welfare-maximizing trade policy in response to the substantial changes in the market structure of these countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines the relationship between economic growth, tax policy, and distribution of capital and labor ownership in a one-sector political-economy model of endogenous growth with productive government spending financed by a proportional tax on capital income. The analysis shows that inequality in wealth and income can be positively or negatively related to the optimal tax rate. In either environment, higher inequality leads to a lower after-tax return to capital, thereby reducing the economy's growth rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many of the problems of privatization in developing countries result from the lack of information about the situation of the economy and from the lack of determination on their path of privatization. This paper addresses the lack of information by presenting a theory of incomplete privatization contracts. It then turns to the lack of determination, dealing with particular problems of partially privatized firms and, finally, postulating an elaborate system of price regulation of privatized monopolies, which typically is missing in developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses Chinese firm-level data to investigate the possible nonlinear spillover caused by export congestion. We argue that there could exist an inverted-U curve in terms of export spillover effect, resulting from the fact that once exporters become over-agglomerated, export congestion is likely to cause negative export spillover. The estimation results support the hypothesis of an inverted-U curve of export spillover effect. Further calculation shows that the degree of Chinese exporters' congestion approximately ranges around 17-34% and demonstrates an increasing trend over time. The finding suggests that policies aimed at reducing export congestion such as industrial upgrading, improvement of firms' efficiency and the current shift from export dependence towards domestic demand would be important for a more healthy development of China's exports in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Obtaining lower generalized system of preferences ( GSP) tariffs requires meeting costly Rules of Origin ( ROOs). Growing coffee in the shade is more costly, but yields a price premium. This paper analyzes the effects of such restrictions in a general equilibrium setting and shows that such policies may have unanticipated effects. It is shown that in a world with capital mobility, the GSP could result in capital outflows rather than inflows and consumer preferences for shade grown coffee end up hurting labor in developing countries. Even small subsidies that are contingent on the use of domestic intermediates can result in specialization in the targeted good. Value added contingent policies can easily lead to multiple equilibria despite the absence of externalities or market imperfections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes whether foreign direct investment ( FDI) has contributed to the wide income gaps in Latin America. Panel cointegration techniques as well as regression analysis are performed to assess the impact of inward FDI stocks on income inequality among households in Latin American host countries. The panel cointegration analysis typically reveals a significant and positive effect on income inequality. There is no evidence for reverse causality. The findings are fairly robust to the choice of different estimation methods, sample selection and the period of observation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The papers in this special issue represent some of the most comprehensive analyses of the implications of climate change for developing countries undertaken to date. The papers employ a bottoms-up systems approach whereby the implications of climate change are evaluated using structural models of agriculture and infrastructure systems. The authors of the paper hail from multiple disciplines. This comprehensive, multi-disciplinary, structural approach is designed to allow for more robust insight into the potential implications of climate change. The approach also allows for experimentation with alternative policy options for achieving development objectives in the context of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years there has been an increased incidence of export restrictions applied by developing countries to commodities and raw materials. Commodity markets may be characterized by concentration on the buyer side, with a small number of transnational intermediary firms purchasing from supplying countries and distributing to the market, and recent work has suggested that export taxes may be an optimal policy to recapture monopsony rent. However, in many commodity markets there are also a limited number of large supplying countries. This paper considers a situation where an oligopsonistic intermediary industry purchases from a small number of supplying countries, the governments of which act strategically in their policy choices both with respect to the intermediaries and any competing suppliers. In the resulting two-stage game, the paper shows that an export subsidy, rather than an export tax, may arise as the optimal intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Why is the economic growth rate so low in poor countries? This paper offers an explanation by using a simple two-sector AK growth model with intersectoral linkages and high relative prices of intermediate goods. Intersectoral linkages lead to two balanced growth paths (BGPs). The high-growth BGP is a source. The low-growth BGP is a sink because it has a small final goods sector, small intersectoral spillovers from the final goods sector to the intermediate goods sector, and small marginal products in the intermediate goods sector, yielding high relative prices of intermediate goods. The low-growth BGP is an attractor and thus development trap. To produce a big push effect, this paper analyzes the first-best policy and finds that a subsidy to own consumption and a provision of public goods to the final goods sector can internalize the external effect and render the low-growth BGP infeasible. As a result, there is only the high-growth BGP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traditional models have encountered problems in explaining the accumulation of international reserves, particularly in Asia, in the period since the late 1990s. One suggestion has been that countries have sought to self-insure against future crises, either because of a perceived increase in the cost of crises or because of the perceived conditionality costs of using IMF credits. This paper offers an empirical investigation of these ideas, disaggregating across regions and across IMF facilities. We find that IMF programs have had a significant positive effect on subsequent reserve accumulation, allowing for other determinants, and that this effect endures over time. We also find that the effect differs between Latin America and Asia, and that it is not simply a phenomenon that is associated with the Asian crisis of 1997/98. The paper goes on to discuss the implications for the design of policy and for the reform of the IMF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considering sustainability a matter of intergenerational welfare equity, this paper examines whether an optimal development path can also be sustainable. It argues that the general 'zero-net-aggregate-investment' condition for an optimal development path to be sustainable in the sense of the maximin criterion of intergenerational justice is too demanding to be practical, especially in the context of developing countries. It further argues that while the maximin criterion of sustainability may be appealing to the rich advanced industrial countries, for the poor developing countries it implies equalization of poverty across generations, and as such is too costly a moral obligation to be acceptable. The paper suggests that a compromise development policy that follows the optimal growth approach but adopts certain measures to mitigate both the intergenerational and intragenerational welfare inequalities may be more appropriate for these countries. Some of the principal elements of such a policy are highlighted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper compares emissions taxes with other taxes from the viewpoint of emissions reduction in an open economy. Using a simple monopoly model, we show that emissions taxes may not be very effective to protect the environment because of the spillover effects between markets stemming from non-constant marginal costs and transboundary externalities. Other taxes such as production taxes and tariffs are more effective under certain conditions. Thus, an easy application of emissions taxes should be discreet in the open economy framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effects of an international income transfer under international monopoly. One of the markets in the donor country is monopolized and there exist two distinct types of agent: monopolist and factor owners. The transfer is provided by the agents with different lump sum tax (burden-share) rates. The burden-share rate plays a key role concerning the welfare effects of a transfer. We show that the government of the donor country can raise both its social welfare and the wellbeing of the recipient country by providing a further transfer and by simultaneously adjusting the burden-share rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines strategic trade policy games where the number of firms in the importing and exporting countries differs and all firms play as Cournot oligopolies. Under the assumption of linear demand and constant marginal cost, we show that, if the number of firms in the exporting country exceeds that in the importing country by more than three, the government of the exporting country chooses to move as a leader, imposing an export tax on firms. The government of the importing country then becomes a follower and imposes an import tariff. This lies contrary to the previous study, which assumed that there is only one firm in each country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to develop an imperfect competition model of a small open developing country to analyze the effects of trade sanctions on the incidence of child labor. We show that a uniform tariff levied by the developed countries on imports produced with the help of child labor is a failure in terms of reducing child labor. A more effective course of action would be a firm-specific tariff where the tariff rate varies with the amount of child labor incorporated in a single good. While such an instrument reduces child labor, however, it worsens the children’s well-being due to lower income and consumption. Contrary to expectations, the entrepreneurs in the developing countries, supposedly the main beneficiaries of child labor, are better off under trade sanctions as they realize higher profits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses the factors proportion model of production and trade with ten inputs to analyze the potential impact of the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA) on the coca substitution program in Bolivia. With six crops including coca, the model produces comparative statics elasticities of changing prices on factor prices and output. Results show that the coca substitution program with free trade will result in large income redistribution in the coca-producing region as a result of increased competition from larger and more efficient economies. Increased subsidies and institutional changes will be needed to sustain the coca substitution program in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper utilizes a general equilibrium R&D model of endogenous growth via increasing capital variety to examine the impact of alternative policies on productivity and economic growth. The model is calibrated using data from the Canadian economy. Findings reveal that direct incentives such as subsidies to R&D activities would have the highest productivity impact on the Canadian economy, that an increase in subsidies to the users of R&D capital (output) would have a positive but smaller impact, and trade liberalization would have minimal effects on productivity growth via its impact on international R&D spillovers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does labeling products “Child-Labor Free” provide a market-based solution to the pervasive employment of child labor? This paper explores the promise of social labeling in the context of its four oft-noted objectives: child labor employment, consumer information, welfare, and trade linkages, when competition between the North and South is based both on comparative cost advantage, and the use of child labor as a hidden product attribute. We show that (i) social labeling benefits consumers and Southern producers, whereas children and Northern producers are worse off; (ii) trade sanctions on unlabeled products deteriorates Southern terms of trade, but leaves the incidence of child labor strictly unaffected; and (iii) a threat to sanction imports of unlabeled Southern products discourages the South from maintaining a credible social labeling program. We also explore the question of whether social labeling should be viewed as a transitory or a permanent institution in developing economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper constructs and analyzes a long-run time series for regional inequality in China from the Communist Revolution to the present. There have been three peaks of inequality in the last fifty years, coinciding with the Great Famine of the late 1950s, the Cultural Revolution of the late 1960s and 1970s, and finally the period of openness and global integration in the late 1990s. Econometric analysis establishes that regional inequality is explained in the different phases by three key policy variables—the ratio of heavy industry to gross output value, the degree of decentralization, and the degree of openness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The previous empirical literature in opportunistic election cycles attempts to identify whether there is a significant impact of the election calendar on economic policy. The econometric analysis implemented in this paper goes a step further, seeking to test whether a country's time-varying degree of democracy affects the way in which economic policy is chosen as elections approach. A simple econometric model is estimated for the case of Mexico's fiscal policy between 1957 and 1997. The estimation reveals the government's strong systematic use of public spending in infrastructure and current transfers as a means to earn votes. Most importantly, we show that the magnitude of the election cycle has been exacerbated during the country's most democratic episodes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A stylized prediction of the development economics discourse is that informality will disappear with development, and yet in the last 20 years conventional measures of informality, far from declining, have either remained stagnant or have actually increased. This includes countries such as India where economic growth has been at historically high levels. What exactly is informality and what are its magnitudes and trends? What are the causes of informality and why is it not decreasing as predicted by standard theories of development? What are the consequences for inclusive economic growth of a large and increasing informal sector? What are feasible and desirable policy responses to informality? These are the questions that motivate this broad based overview of informality. The questions will be addressed based on recent and ongoing research on India and globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The general policy prescription for resource-rich countries is that, for sustainable consumption, a greater percentage of the windfall from resource rents should be channeled into accumulating foreign assets such as a sovereign public fund as done in Norway and other developed but resource-rich countries. This might not be a correct policy prescription for resource-rich sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, where public capital is very low to support the needed economic growth. In such countries, rents from resources serve as an opportunity to scale-up the needed public capital. Using a panel data for the period 1990-2013, we find in line with the scaling-up hypothesis that resource rents significantly increases public investment in SSA and that this tends to depend on the quality of political institutions. Moreover, we also find evidence of a positive effect of public investment on economic growth, which also depends on the level of resource rents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Different types of capital inflows have varied effects when predicting banking crises in emerging and developing economies, and these relationships have meaningfully changed over time. In a sample of 29 developing and emerging economies over the period 1976-1991 increases in short-term debt inflows raised the probability of a banking crisis while increases in inflows for long-term borrowing by the private sector had the opposite effect. Conversely, over the period 1992-2007 increases in inflows for long-term borrowing by the private sector and for equity investment both increased the probability of a banking crisis. The findings suggest distinct optimal capital account liberalization policies between the two periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Development aid does not always positively impact economic growth. Instead, aid may decrease total factor productivity (TFP) and discourage the recipient country's own effort to grow. This study contributes to research on macroeconomic aid transmission channels by using panel data from 51 recipient countries over a 36‐year period and applying panel time‐series techniques. The main aim is to study the aid–productivity relation by analyzing the impact of different forms of aid (grants; loans; and bilateral, multilateral, and sector‐related aid) on productivity while accounting for institutional factors and economic policy. The analysis controls for endogeneity and autocorrelation to ensure consistent and efficient estimates. To examine possible vicious circles often attributed to aid, we run quantile regressions to determine the role of aid across productivity quantiles. We find evidence that aid reduced TFP through grants and bilateral aid from 1972 to 1999 and in all quantiles of the TFP distribution from 1972 to 2009. We also find differences in the impact of sector‐related aid, where aid is harmful in more productive countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From 1998 to 2012, the Peruvian economy exhibited rapid growth. Moreover, the composition of the labor force improved in terms of education and experience, two variables that are typically associated to higher human capital. The average worker in 2012 had a higher level of education and was one and a half years older than in 1998, reflecting the impact of the demographic transition. However, the average real wage was roughly constant. We show that a decline in the wage premium for education, and to a minor extent for experience, is responsible for the lack of growth in the average real wage. Had these two premia remained constant throughout the period of analysis, average labor earnings would have increased by about 2.6% per year, of which 0.7 percentage points are accounted for by the changes in the composition of the labor force in terms of age and education. We explore the role of the relative supply of workers with different levels of human capital as an explanation for the decline in the wage premium for education. Finally, we analyze the implications of these findings for some macroeconomic variables, as earnings and wage inequality, the labor share and total factor productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aspects related to the links between international migration, foreign aid and the welfare state are highlighted in this paper. Migration is modeled as a costly movement from an aid-recipient developing country with low income and no welfare state, towards a rich donor, developed country with a well-developed welfare state. Within this model, it is found, among other things, that the best response of the developed donor country is to increase aid as the co-financing rate by the recipient country increases. When the immigration cost decreases, e.g. as a result of greater economic integration between the two countries, it is beneficial for the donor country to increase aid and the recipient country to increase the co-financing rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]