Search

Are markets in developing and transition economies overregulated or under-regulated? This is a perennial question in the development discourse, but one for which answers appear to come more from preset ideology than from context- specific analysis and evidence. These issues become even more pressing when the debate turns to the links between regulation, deregulation and inequality. The recent experience of rising inequality in many countries has also brought to the fore predictable policy positions. A key aspect of labor regulation in developing countries, and one becoming more prominent in the era of rising inequality, is the minimum wage. The range of issues around regulation, minimum wage and informality was addressed by papers presented to a conference held in New Delhi on December 17-18, 2014. The conference was co-sponsored by the World Bank, UK Department for International Development, Cornell University and Columbia University. The organizers of the conference were Kaushik Basu, Stefan Dercon, Ravi Kanbur and Jan Svejnar. A selection of papers from the conference which passed the usual review procedures of the Review of Development Economics, and a further selection of papers from those submitted to the journal, form this symposium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Partner country (PC) selection lies in the centre of development policy decision‐making of donor countries and institutions, and plays a significant role in shaping aid patterns. This paper proposes a comprehensive analysis contrasting donor intentions in PC selection with actual aid flows. Having analysed selected members of the Development Assistance Committee of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, namely, the European Union, France, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States of America, we suggest that (1) donors might not only be either altruistic or self‐interested but also motivated by an intention to contribute to the provision of global public goods; (2) self‐interest in aid provision can be an explicitly‐stated strategy, contrary to what has been argued in the majority of the literature, which often treats self‐interest as a non‐stated donor intention; and (3) donors' self‐interested intentions do not always lead to a less development‐oriented donor approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy is pivotal for sustainable economic growth. Undoubtedly, the role of the composition of the export basket (measured as economic complexity) is one of the crucial variables influencing energy consumption. Despite its importance, the existing body of literature does not intensively study the relationship between economic complexity and total energy consumption. Therefore, this study's primary aim was to examine the effect of economic complexity on energy consumption in a case study of 21 developed and 44 developing countries for the period 1971–2014. In this context, economic complexity expresses the level of sophistication of a country's export basket. This paper considers energy prices and income as explanatory variables in Durbin‐H panel cointegration analysis and applies a cointegration test with structural breaks to check for the long‐run relationships. For the long‐run estimations, we employ the augmented mean group method and dynamic seemingly unrelated regression. The findings reveal that economic complexity increases energy consumption in developing countries while it decreases energy consumption in developed countries. This is an important insight for countries concerned about their energy dependence. The diversification of their production and export baskets can reduce energy needs. The paper finally presents policy recommendations based on the empirical estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper argues that the relationship between corruption and economic growth is dependent upon the uncertainty involved. Employing data on a cross‐section of countries, this paper uses an interaction between the frequency of bribery payments and the uncertainty regarding the delivery of the service in exchange for these bribes to show that corruption has a negative association with growth unless the uncertainty is minimal. Furthermore, the negative association becomes larger in magnitude with higher levels of uncertainty. At extremely high levels of uncertainty a relatively small increase in corruption, equivalent to moving from Sweden to the United States for example, is associated with economically large decreases in economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates whether the geographic characteristics of a country can explain cross-country variations in income levels through their ability to explain cross-country variations in cultural traits that enhance economic development. In other words, this paper attempts to determine whether the geographic endowment can serve as an instrument in examining the effect of culture on economic development. The paper conducts two-stage least-squares regressions. The second stage is a regression of the logarithm of real gross domestic product per capita on each of the cultural attributes that are considered in this study. In the first stage, the geographic factors that statistically explain a cultural aspect are used as instrumental variables. The results of the empirical estimation show that the cultural variables, instrumented by the geographic variables, explain cross-country variations in economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Ricardian comparative advantage model suggests doing what you are best at. Meanwhile, many development experiences resulted in producing the impossible. Do the two prescriptions lead to an antagonism that the industrial policy must side by one? Or can industrial policy consider the current comparative advantage while aiming for significant changes in the export basket? This paper answers yes by suggesting a path to transformation through the tracks of current comparative advantage. I use the Product Space network to define the two attributes of a product: New products closer to the existing comparative advantage are easier to include in the export basket. On the other hand, central products in the core of the product space might be far from the export basket, but once added, they contribute more to the transformation and further diversification. Hence, a trade‐off exists between the proximity of a new product to the current export basket and its contribution to further diversification and transformation. I offer industrial policymakers to use a combination of product nearness and centrality. A policymaker seeking a gradual and secure transformation can prioritize nearness, while centrality can be given greater weight for rapid transformations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a panel data set of 160 economies from 1950 to 2018, this paper examines the relationship between military expenditures and economic, health‐related, education, environmental, and social indicators of sustainable development. The results generally suggest that the size of the military expenditures is negatively associated with educational attainment, life expectancy, infant and maternal mortality rates, female labor force participation, gender equality, and access to safe drinking water, electricity, basic sanitation, and positively correlated with mortality and poverty rates and air pollution. The findings are generally robust to different specifications and interact with GDP per capita; that is, the association of military spending with the development indicators is stronger (weaker) in less (more) developed economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses the 2015 version of the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) and World Trade Organization (WTO)'s Trade in Value‐added (TiVA) database to estimate China's value‐added exports to gross exports ratio (VAER), and calculate and compare China's bilateral gross trade imbalances and value‐added trade imbalances with its major trading partners at the aggregate and sector level, respectively. During the period from 1995 to 2011, China's value‐added exports were around 35% less than gross exports at the aggregate level, and around 60% and 80% for manufacturing sectors and tech‐intensive sectors, respectively. Compared with those based on conventional gross trade statistics, our estimates based on trade in value‐added cut China's overall trade imbalances substantially. China's value‐added trade surplus for manufacturing sectors, especially for the so‐called tech‐intensive sectors, was around 45% and over 85% less than gross trade surplus, respectively. China–U.S. value‐added trade surplus was 28–45% less than gross trade surplus during the period from 1995 to 2011. On the contrary, China's value‐added trade deficit with East and Southeast Asian economies is 71–99% and 59–93% less than gross trade deficit during the period from 2005 to 2011, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper extends a two‐period overlapping generations model of endogenous growth where the interactions between public infrastructure and human capital with research and development (R&D) activities and growth are studied. The paper makes two important contributions. First, it accounts for the spillover effect of the stock of ideas on learning, which in turn promotes the production of innovative technologies. In doing so, it brings to the fore a two‐way interaction between human capital and innovation. The paper then applies various econometric methods which confirm the above theoretical thesis. Second, the solutions of the model emphasize the important role public spending on infrastructure, human capital and R&D can play in promoting economic growth. However, the findings also show that trade‐offs in the allocation of public spending may inevitably emerge. In particular, investment in public infrastructure at the expense of spending on R&D is less likely to succeed in promoting economic growth, whereas it may be more effective to foster growth through an offsetting cut in another productive component, namely, education. In light of these potential trade‐offs, governments in low‐income countries need to use their limited budgets as part of holistic measures in order to achieve efficient outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans growth framework it is shown that for an optimum a benevolent social planner cannot have an excessive "love of wealth". With a "right" "love of wealth" an optimum exists and implies higher long-run per-capita capital, income, and consumption relative to the standard model. This has important implications for comparative development trajectories. The optimum implies dynamic efficiency with the possibility of getting arbitrarily close to the golden rule where long-run per-capita consumption is maximal. It is shown that the optimal path attains its steady state more slowly. Thus, the beneficial effects of love of wealth materialize later than in the standard model. Furthermore, the economy can be decentralized as a competitive private ownership economy. One can then identify "love of wealth" with the "spirit of capitalism." The paper thus implies that one needs a "right" level of the "spirit of capitalism" to realize any beneficial effects for the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines causal relationships between economic globalization, the three indices for product diversification of exports (Theil index, intensive margin and extensive margin) and economic growth in the unbalanced panel data framework in 139 countries over the period 1970-2010. We also consider the subgroup of the countries related to the income levels and run the panel Granger non-causality tests for heterogeneous panels. The empirical results indicate that there is a bidirectional causal relationship between economic globalization and economic growth. There is also a significant causal relationship that runs from all three indices for the diversification of exports to economic growth. After implementing various robustness checks, we observe that diversification of exports and economic globalization are positively related with economic growth merely in the upper middle economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a theoretical method to account for historical episodes of growth disparity. A numerical computation shows that the properties of the local dynamics of the proposed model are consistent with the facts indicated by selected episodes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines Official Development Assistance ( ODA) in the aftermath of large natural disasters between 1970 and 2008. Using an event-study approach, the paper finds that while the median increase in ODA is 18% compared with pre-disaster flows, the typical surge is small in relation to the size of the affected economies. Moreover, aid surges typically cover only 3% of the total estimated economic damages caused by the disasters. The main determinants of post-disaster aid surges are found to be the intensity of the event itself and the recipient country's characteristics such as the level of development, country size and the stock of foreign reserves. The paper does not find evidence that political considerations or strategic behavior on the part of donors determine the size of post-disaster aid surges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we investigate the effect of corruption on the economic development of the Latin American and Caribbean countries. Using panel data covering the period from 2000 to 2018 and leveraging on two‐way fixed‐effect and system generalized method of moments estimators, we show that a one standard deviation increase in corruption, as measured by the reversed Transparency International's corruption perception index, is associated with a decrease of 12.2% in gross domestic product per capita and a decrease of 3.05% in economic growth. This supports the view that corruption "sands the wheels" of the development of Latin American and Caribbean countries rather than "grease the wheels" perspective that corruption may help compensate for bad governance. We also assess the potential mechanisms through which corruption affects economic performance, providing evidence that corruption is associated with lower investment in physical capital and lower foreign investment flow. Finally, a panel Granger causality test indicates a bidirectional causality between higher corruption and lower economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper compares the effects of government consumption and government debt on economic growth using data from 83 countries, including both developed and developing markets, over the period from 1960 to 2014. Linear regressions reveal that the negative effects of government consumption are relatively higher than the negative effects of government debt. A nonlinear investigation further suggests that the restrictions on government expenditure to prevent negative growth are more important for countries with lower trade openness, lower inflation, or greater financial depth, whereas the restrictions on government debt are shown to be more important for countries with higher trade openness, lower inflation or greater financial depth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the convergence clustering in 31 Chinese provinces regarding several important economic indicators over the period 1952 to 2016 was empirically investigated. Several provincial clusters were identified in the per capita (real) gross domestic product (GDP), consumption–income ratio, retail price, and consumer price inflation rates, using a club convergence and clustering procedure. The empirical findings are as follows. First, it was found that all series of the original data contain a significant nonlinear component. Second, it was observed that there are five significant clusters for the per capita income in China. Third, it was found that there are four significant clusters for the consumption–income ratio. Fourth, it was observed that there are four significant clusters for the retail inflation rates and two significant clusters for the consumer inflation rates in China. These results will enable local and central planners to implement economic growth, savings and price adjustment policies for different groups of provinces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A Fisher's Identity model is established to study Northern Song China's (960-1126) level of velocity of money using money supply and gross domestic product ( GDP) data. Results of the exercise help rationalize what is called the 'bronze coin' puzzle, which is the massive amount of minted coins seemingly incommensurate with price levels. It is shown that the velocity of money was increasing and comparable to pre-industrial England levels. This paper argues that the driving forces of the short supply of money are greater than usual hoarding by the state treasury and coin outflows to Song's trading partners via smuggling. Since velocity of money is an indicator of economic development in ancient societies, this paper provides a realistic validation of the premise of the Needham puzzle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Developed and well regulated financial markets are usually seen as a precondition for an efficient allocation of resources and can foster long term economic growth. This paper explores the institutional determinants for financial development in the countries of the Middle East and North African ( MENA) region. Institutional conditions are from the International Country Risk Guide. Panel-econometric techniques are applied to assess the development in the banking sector and the stock market. As a main finding, institutional conditions are important in both financial segments, even after controlling for standard macroeconomic determinants and fixed effects. For the banking sector, corruption seems to be most decisive. For the stock market, the impact of corruption and law and order appear to be relevant. While per capita income and inflation do not seem to play a vital role, openness to foreign trade is quite important for all areas of financial development. Hence, overall, faster real economic integration is of key policy priority to improve financial development as a condition for higher GDP growth. Better law and enforcement practices and anti-corruption policies are strategies to accompany this process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper follows Benhabib and Spiegel ( Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 34, 1994:143–73) in examining the effect of human capital accumulation on economic growth. The paper is innovative in two ways. First, it takes the R&D-based models more seriously. This delivers more structural specifications in which human capital affects growth as an input of final output and as a catalyst of technological innovation and imitation. Second, owing to data availability it is possible to disaggregate human capital and assign different roles to primary and post-primary education. Regression estimates obtained from these alternative specifications suggest that the relative contribution of human capital to technology adoption and final output production vary by country wealth. More importantly, regression estimates suggest that primary education contributes mainly to production of final output, whereas post-primary education contributes mainly to innovation and imitation of technology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this paper, I formulate a simple North–South R&D‐based growth model where final goods firms in the North endogenously determine the range of international outsourcing of intermediate goods to the South. I show that a fall in the trade cost (through trade liberalization) of intermediate goods in the North: (i) reduces the wage of the North relative to that of the South; (ii) increases the outsourced variety of intermediate goods in the North; and (iii) stimulates Northern R&D activity and economic growth in both countries. By conducting welfare analysis, I also show that a decline in the trade cost of intermediate goods in the North improves welfare in the South more than in the North. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Before 2007/08, the European Monetary Union (EMU) was expected to be enlarged on schedule, but the European sovereign debt problem, triggered by the exogenous US sub-prime crisis, not only has revealed the EMU's fiscal coordination failure, but also has weakened regional financial integration. The stagnation of financial integration will therefore increase the cost of sustaining a monetary union, which in turn slows EMU enlargement and ruins the reputation of the euro. This paper aims to measure the damage to financial integration and to provide a more precise answer on real interest rate parity (RIP) convergence. Our estimation indicates that RIP between the EMU and some accession candidates is still valid after the interruptions of the financial crises. However, convergence of real interest rates cannot be achieved until 2030. This implies the EMU authority must strengthen regional financial integration to solidify the EMU and then be able to re-start enlargement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper sets up a vertically related market model in which imitation and innovation are endogenously determined to study the impact of intellectual property rights ( IPR) protection on less-developed countries. It shows how a less-developed country switches from imitation to innovation as it develops. It is also found that the relationship between IPR protection and economic development is U-shaped. The IPR protection tends to go down and then go up as income rises. This finding also conforms with that in the empirical literature on IPR protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many authors have estimated and found that the productivity growth in agriculture is higher than that in non-agriculture in today's richest countries. Several papers suggested that growth in agricultural productivity was essential for today's richest countries to take off early. However, few articles noticed that growth in agricultural productivity is critical in driving structural change in today's richest countries. This paper studies a two-sector neoclassical growth model with subsistence agricultural consumption and shows that growth in agricultural productivity plays a more important role than growth in non-agricultural productivity in governing massive structural change in today's richest countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, 152 million children are involved in economic activities. Poverty is the main cause of child labor, and the lack of social norms and inadequate legal systems are contributing factors. In order to understand the cause of child labor and provide appropriate assistance, this paper focuses on the accumulation of human capital and social capital. The first part of the paper shows that, historically, child labor has been highly dependent on the initial endowments of human capital and social capital. We also show that the condition of bifurcation from an identical initial condition depends on the productivity derived from social capital. The second part of the paper examines the effect of development aid in recipient countries, particularly the effect of two types of programs that attempt to eliminate child labor and provide support to strengthen social capital. We show that both programs are effective at making the economy better off. However, large amounts of development aid for the program that strengthens social capital can make the economy of middle‐income countries worse off. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper shows that the existence of endogenous growth, in the closed-form solution, in a single sector economy with a convex technology in an overlapping generations ( OLG) framework, which attempts to fill the current gap in endogenous growth theory. It finds there is an unbounded growth when trade, in the form of knowledge spillover, affects labor productivity through the formation of human capital with self-education that is not an independent sector but builds the human capital here. This conclusion holds even though there is the 'limited income' expressed as the 'non-increasing wage/investment ratio' for each generation. Moreover, it shows the convergence of growth rates for each country, which is unique and constant, while the growth rate per capita negatively relates with each country's population growth rate. Also, there is no 'poverty trap' with the introduction of externalities that is different from existing literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines strategic investment subsidies in an international oligopoly. A general oligopoly model is constructed in which firms compete in two stages and governments commit to investment subsidies prior to firms' actions. The paper considers asymmetry among firms that arises from the nature of goods they produce rather than their cost structures. When firms produce asymmetrically differentiated goods, it is found that a change in the number of foreign competitors may alter the sign of the optimal unilateral investment subsidy. An example of policy reversal is provided in the case of strategic research and development subsidies for a quality-differentiated industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper uses the theoretical framework developed by Feder (1983) and Ram (1986) to examine interactions (i.e. externalities and intersectoral factor productivity differentials) between the official and unofficial sectors of the economy. Results from the empirical analysis, using data on over 100 countries from 1970 to 2008, suggest that the marginal externality effect of growth in the unofficial sector on the official sector is positive. Further, input productivities are higher in the unofficial sector relative to the official sector. These results are robust using alternate measures of the (unobserved) unofficial economy and across level of development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aid donors are interested in understanding whether allocating aid via bilateral or multilateral channels might be more effective for achieving development goals. We review 45 papers that empirically test the associations between bilateral and multilateral aid flows and various development outcomes including gross domestic product growth, governance indicators, human development indicators and levels of nonaid investment flows. Findings suggest that differences between countries and regions, time periods, aid objectives, and individual donor organizations all may influence the effectiveness of aid delivered bilaterally and multilaterally. We find, however, no consistent evidence that either bilateral or multilateral aid is more effective overall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a two-period model in which the recipient faces borrowing constraint and the donor is a Stackelberg follower to address two important policy questions: (i) whether foreign aid can lead to the efficient level of capital investment in the recipient country and (ii) how does the form (e.g. budgetary transfers, capital transfer) and the timing of aid affect the recipient's financial savings and capital investment. It finds that the disincentive effect of the capital transfer on the capital investment by the recipient is larger than the budgetary transfers. It makes financial savings more attractive relative to the capital investment for the recipient. In the absence of capital transfer, the multi-period budgetary transfers not only lead to the efficient level of capital investment by the recipient, but also achieve the same allocation as under commitment. The capital transfer can lead to the efficient level of capital investment, but in this case, it completely crowds out the recipient's own capital investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the link between the emigration of entrepreneurs and the emergence of economic development traps, which has not received much attention in the existing literature. We develop a theoretical model, where the economy is divided into a traditional and a modern sector. Entrepreneurs establish firms in the modern sector to produce varieties of differentiated goods. Positive spillover effects exist in the modern sector. We show that the emigration of entrepreneurs can cause economic development traps, where the productivity of the modern sector remains low, and more importantly, the economy is stuck in the traditional structure. In the typical case, the development traps exhibit strong history dependence. Under certain conditions, regardless of the initial endowment of entrepreneurs, economic development traps are unavoidable. By examining the effect of government policy intervention to correct the market failure arising from spillover effects, our study also provides a theoretical foundation for government policies used by some developed countries to attract foreign entrepreneurs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a North- South model of heterogeneous firms, the paper investigates the effects of the financial development of the South on the choice of international entry mode (export vs foreign direct investment [ FDI]) of Northern firms. Such development facilitates the entry of local firms and thus intensifies product market competition. As a result, the intensive margins, extensive margins and total sales from export or FDI of Northern firms are all reduced. The paper provides conditions that determine whether export or FDI is affected more significantly. The results generate empirically testable hypotheses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines empirically how the multiple-cone version of the Heckscher- Ohlin ( HO) model fits the 'flying geese' patterns of industrial development: a series of industries appear, prosper, then decline and finally disappear one after another. Using Japanese manufacturing data from 1975 to 2006, the analysis shows that the multiple-cone model fits well with the flying geese patterns of Japanese industrial development. The result suggests that part of the industrial upgrading can be explained by the multiple-cone HO model. This also implies that an underlying mechanism of macroeconomic growth is industrial upgrading, part of which can be attributed to capital accumulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous studies on income convergence estimate the convergence equation derived for autarkic economies using data from the world that is increasingly integrated. This paper derives a convergence equation for a world integrated by trade from the standard Heckscher- Ohlin model with factor price equalization. The convergence equation for an integrated world differs from the autarkic one in that (1) the growth rate of each economy is increasing in the global growth rate; (2) the rate of convergence is increasing in the global growth rate; and (3) the rate of convergence, under conventional parameter values, is much lower. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traditional literature emphasizes the role of foreign capital, especially foreign direct investment ( FDI) in explaining the high growth rates that many emerging economies have enjoyed during 1990s and 2000s. The present paper accepts this conventional wisdom but argues that the FDI has also created problems of urban sprawl and congestion that would not be so intense if economic development had primarily come from domestic sources. This is because the FDI is typically concentrated in urban areas that abound in manufacturing and it neglects the rural areas where agriculture predominates. The paper suggests that a small tax on foreign capital tends to mitigate the side effects of foreign investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the patterns of government expenditure stimuli among Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development ( OECD) countries during the Great Recession (2007-2009). Overall, we find that the USA net fiscal stimulus was modest relative to peers, despite it being the epicenter of the crisis, and having access to relatively cheap funding of its twin deficits. Of the 28 countries in the sample, the USA is ranked among the bottom third in terms of the rate of expansion of consolidated government consumption and investment expenditures. Contrary to historical experience, emerging markets had strongly countercyclical policy during the period immediately preceding the Great Recession and the Great Recession itself. Federal unions, emerging markets and countries with very high gross domestic product ( GDP) growth during the pre-recession period saw larger net fiscal stimulus on average than their counterparts. We also find that greater net fiscal stimulus was associated with lower flow costs of general government debt in the same or subsequent period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a two-sector R&D-based growth model with congestion effects from increasing urban population density. We show that endogenous technological progress causes structural change if there are positive productivity spillovers from the modern to the traditional sector and Engel's law holds. In turn, urban congestion effects cause a productivity slowdown in the modern sector. Eventually, economic growth may cease in the long-run. We also show that land dilution by a larger workforce may give rise to negative scale effects on ( GDP) per capita. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic growth accelerated during the first decade of the 2000s in many poor countries, especially in Africa. This welcome news is widely discussed, even in the popular press. Yet as economies grow, some analysts express concerns that such growth is not having as significant an impact on poverty as one would hope. Analysts and policymakers ask whether this growth is adequately pro-poor, shared, or inclusive. Less noticed is that improvements in children's health are accelerating, too. This paper examines the extent to which these health improvements are equitably shared or 'inclusive.' We use a descriptive method, which is analogous to growth incidence curves, and apply it to eight countries from Africa, Asia and Latin America. We draw two principal conclusions. First, within countries, health improvements often have a different distribution than income/expenditure growth, and that distribution is usually more hopeful in the sense that it is more likely to be strongly pro-poor than the distribution of income growth. Second, we have yet to see clear patterns in terms of the within-country relationship between growth incidence curves and health improvement incidence curves. Thus, one cannot rely on the information in the growth incidence curve to infer the inclusiveness of health improvements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic Partnership Agreements ( EPAs) between the EU and African Caribbean and Pacific countries are frequently criticized because of fears about negative implications for economic development. Using Uganda as a case study, this paper employs an integrated computable general equilibrium-microsimulation model framework rich in household-level detail to assess the consequences of the East African Community EPA for economic output and poverty in Uganda. Simulations of the agreement's tariff liberalization provisions indicate a very small negative economic impact and ambiguous outcomes for poverty. The poverty results depend in size and sign on the poverty line, on the way the government addresses tariff revenue losses and on labor market assumptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to develop a generally applicable model to examine the eventual motivations both for internal migration and external immigration. For this reason our model involves not only economic motivations of development and geographical economics but also social motivations of behavior economics. We tested the model through Turkish internal and external population flows toward German regions. Our analysis contains the first regional-level immigration analysis between an EU country (Germany) and Turkey. The main results are: (i) the purely economic motivations are more important than the social motivations; (ii) among the economic motivations income level and economic size of host regions are the biggest ones; and (iii) and the network externalities play a more important role than the herd effect. Subsequently, we estimated some country-specific factors on im/migration. The main results are: (i) joining to the Customs Union led to acceleration in intern migration but slowing-down in external immigration; (ii) even though Turkey acts slowly in adopting EU reforms, the EU reform process seems to reduce the economic and social stress on Turkish im/migration; and (iii) the reunification of Germany created a constraint on Turkish immigration flows toward German regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does the effect of international trade on income growth depend on the economy’s level of development? More specifically, is trade more beneficial to lower income economies? Does trade contribute to a smaller international income inequality? The present paper seeks to answer these questions by employing the empirical model of Frankel and Romer (1999 ), which shows trade increases income growth in a cross section of 150 countries. We find evidence in support of the hypothesis that international trade benefits the lower income economies more than it benefits the higher income economies. This finding is robust in the presence of control variables including distance from the equator and institutional quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper shows that, for dynamic optimizing economies with different types of natural resource, environmental, and human-made capital stocks, a necessary and sufficient condition for permanently sustaining an optimal utility/consumption level is the stationarity of the current-value Hamiltonian. For economies whose development is not exogenously and directly affected by time (i.e., time-autonomous economies), this stationarity condition generalizes Dixit et al.’s (1980 ) “zero-net-aggregate-investment” rule of sustain-ability, which in turn generalizes Solow-Hartwick’s sustainability rule. For non-autonomous economies, the stationarity condition is not generally fulfilled, and the current-value Hamiltonian under ( over) estimates the true welfare level by an amount equal to the discounted value of the net “ pure time effect.” For the non-autonomous case of a time-dependent utility discount rate, a general condition on the discount rate function (of which the hyperbolic discount rate function is a special case) upholds the results obtained for autonomous cases. The paper concludes with a discussion of policies that promote both optimality and sustainability objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper examines the impact of different aid types, namely project aid, program aid, technical assistance, and food aid on the fiscal sector of the aid-recipient economy by using time-series data for Côte d’Ivoire over the period 1975–99. Our empirical results show that when a single value (or aggregated) for aid is used, foreign aid is fully consumed in the case of Côte d’Ivoire. However, results obtained under the assumption of aid heterogeneity clearly suggest that the government responds differently according to the nature of the aid inflows. Our approach tries to illuminate the response of the aid-recipient government to different categories of foreign aid inflows and the empirical findings clearly demonstrate the importance of the aid disaggregation approach for delving deeper into aid effectiveness issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper models the relationship between an aid-providing international financial institution (IFI) and an aid-receiving government whose economic policy choices are influenced by a domestic interest group. Two assistance schemes are evaluated: conditional aid in which the IFI makes assistance contingent on less- distorting economic policies and unconditional aid which is provided without such conditions. Conditional aid is shown to raise welfare of the receiving country and the world as a whole relative to unconditional aid. The paper also examines how conditional and unconditional aid schemes are influenced by the IFI's opportunity cost of providing assistance and the receiving government's political dependence on a domestic interest group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper re-examines the relationship between stock market development and economic growth. It provides a theoretical basis for establishing the channel through which stock markets affect economic growth in the long run. It examines the hypothesis of endogenous growth models that financial development causes higher growth through its influence on the level of investment and its productivity. The empirical part of this study exploits techniques recently developed to test for causality in VARs. The evidence obtained from a sample of four countries suggests that investment productivity is the channel through which stock market development enhances the growth rate in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines the impact of skill transfer on economic growth. Even if there are the benefits of backwardness and the ability to absorb them, the South may not exploit them, because the skilled workers in the North are not willing to come to the South owing to their high opportunity cost. It is shown that if the South's relative income is low, the South cannot offer high wages to attract skilled workers from the North, and stays in the low rank. But if its relative income is high enough, exploiting the benefits of backwardness, it attains high growth and converges to a relatively higher position. This prediction is consistent with the evidence that the world distribution of relative income has two peaks. The study also shows that an increase in human capital in the North increases the minimum requirement for human capital in the South to soar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents a model of social and economic development which relaxes some of the assumptions made in existing papers on the determinants of growth. In particular, the model allows for multidirectional causality between social and economic indicators. The model indicates that there are strong causal relationships in both directions between economic development and social and political development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper investigates whether mixed trade strategies of import substitution and export promotion, if permanently or temporarily applied, can generate pro-tradables movements in the real exchange rate. Static and dynamic general-equilibrium modeling with a nontradables sector and alternative types of tradables is used to explore real exchange rate responses to uniform and nonuniform trade policy interventions. The paper shows that uniform, permanent interventions are neutral, having no impact on the equilibrium real exchange rate. The real exchange rate effect of temporary uniform interventions is, however, in general ambiguous when prices and incomes are fully endogenized. The breakdown of Lerner symmetry or of neutrality following uniform temporary interventions does not mean that intended promotion of tradables necessarily results in a pro-tradables movement in the real exchange rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper introduces differences in production and transaction conditions between countries into a model of monopolistic competition. It applies inframarginal analysis to show that, as transaction conditions are improved, the general equilibrium may jump discontinuously across different patterns of trade and economic development. A country may export a good in which it has exogenous comparative disadvantage if its endogenous comparative advantage dominates this disadvantage. Countries will choose a trade and development pattern to utilize their net exogenous and endogenous comparative advantages in production as well as in transactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper first notes the importance of "one-cone" versus "multi-cone" equilibria in the Heckscher-Ohlin model of international trade, then asks whether economic growth in neoclassical growth models leads toward one or the other. The one-cone equilibrium arises with internationally similar factor endowments. It has a single set (cone) of relative factor endowments, within which countries diversify and have global factor price equalization (FPE) under free trade. The multi-cone equilibrium arises with larger factor endowment differences. It has FPE within cones, but not between them. The two configurations differ in important ways. The paper examines several neoclassical trade-and-growth models, distinguished by their assumptions about saving, asking whether factor endowments converge into a single cone. None of the models suggests convergence, while some strongly imply that countries will end up in different cones. This suggests a preference for the multi-cone version of the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When exploring the logic why some economies grow faster than others, previous studies commonly assume that all economies follow a universal growth path. This paper explores the heterogeneity of growth regimes across economies and then investigates the decomposition bias of growth sources in traditional methods. Using a panel data of China's provinces, the empirical results show that a finite mixture model with three classes is best to describe the data, revealing that there are multiple growth regimes across provinces. Also, some provinces switch regimes over time while the others remain stable. Further, neglecting heterogeneous regimes overestimates the importance of factor endowment and underestimates the importance of sector productivity, while it does not greatly influence the importance of of factor market efficiency. In particular, the decomposition bias embodies in physical capital and energy input rather than labor. Our findings indicate that the existing literature may underestimate the contribution of sector productivity. Thus, it is critical to account for heterogeneous regimes when exploring the sources of economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the factors driving manufacturing growth accelerations in a sample of 134 developing countries over the period 1970 to 2014. We first identify growth acceleration episodes of manufacturing value added (MVA) by their year of initiation and according to a country's income classification. We then estimate a probit model to explain what factors predict these MVA growth accelerations. Our results show that human capital and institutions represent contextual factors that favor the growth of manufacturing, together with macroeconomic policies related to investment, and openness to foreign trade and capital. We also find that most of these factors not only foster episodic accelerations of industry, but they contribute as well to a sustained process of industrialization that characterized the process of economic growth of a few successful countries over the period 1970 to 2014. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to most classifications, Sub‐Saharan Africa is the region of the world with the highest presence of fragile states. In this paper we examine the relationship between fragility and poverty, suggesting that countries may become trapped in a vicious circle of fragility and low levels of wellbeing. We consider fragility as a continuum and begin by reviewing available measures. These show the high presence of fragility in Sub‐Saharan Africa and allow the more fragile countries to be identified. There is seen to be a strong association between fragility, poor growth performance, and lower wellbeing in Sub‐Saharan Africa. Building on the strong evidence for the two‐way relationship between economic growth and poverty, we present an analysis of how the vicious circle linking poorer welfare outcomes and fragility may be able to be broken. We argue that building successful institutions is key here, and this can be enabled by specific policy interventions that are both poverty reducing and productive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper looks at the role of textile exports in Japan and China's economic development in the period of 1868-1930 as a major explanation for the ' Little Divergence' between the two countries in the context of the ' Great Divergence' between Europe and Asia. Because of textiles' large weighting in proto-industrialization gross domestic product ( GDP), we postulate that China's initial 20-year lag in textiles vis-à-vis Japan turns out to be fatal for its industry and that it eventually ordains totally different development patterns for the textile industry in the two countries, which ultimately led to different growth patterns for the overall economy. Although both countries saw rapid growth of textile exports, the nature of those exports and the entailed position of each country in the industry value chain of trade were quite different. We then use Granger causality tests to show that in one case ( Japan) it is in support of the export-led-growth hypothesis ( ELG) while in another ( China) it is not. Our study then also explains why Japan's industrial revolution took place much earlier than China's. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inclusive economic development has become a pressing goal of government policy in India in the face of rising regional inequality. This paper examines the role of targeted development policy action in inducing economic growth and also in reducing regional income inequality during the last two decades (since the beginning of the 1990s)-a period marked by increasing trade openness. In our disaggregated analysis of the states, we find that while the government capital expenditure policy has had significant positive impact on output growth of the poorer states, it failed to break the trend of escalating regional inequality. The policy has been significantly more effective in enhancing manufacturing sector output in the poorer states compared with the richer states. On the trade front, while the poorer states gained somewhat in income growth from greater openness, the gains were not large enough to offset the increasing regional disparity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides new insights into the relationship between exchange rates and productivity developments for European Economies. We focus on the question whether productivity changes have a long-run impact on real effective exchange rates for a large number of European economies. Focusing on a sample period running from 1995 until 2013, we adopt a cointegrated vector autoregressive approach and distinguish between long-run equilibrium, short-run dynamics and long-run impact of shocks. Our findings show that for several industrialized economies, real effective exchange rates and labor productivity are not related over the long-run. A possible explanation for this result is that wage developments do not reflect increases in labor productivity to a large degree, which prevents a transmission to the real effective exchange rate through the price channel. The results for Central and Eastern European Countries are more encouraging since a positive impact of labor productivity on real effective exchange rate is frequently observed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is the analysis of stochastic and β-convergence in the relative regional per capita outputs using different unit root tests both with and without structural breaks and using a further test that is robust to the presence of I(0) or I(1) errors. It allows robust inference on the estimates of the initial per capita output (intercepts) and the respective growth rates (slopes). The results of the application of unit root tests without structural breaks show the absence of stochastic convergence. However, by incorporating the presence of endogenous breaks, the results are reversed for all regions. In the case of β-convergence, the results of the robust test WRQF show that all regions have a structural break at some point during the period 1970-2010. We find different behavior for different regions. There is a catching-up process and a lagging-behind process for different groups of regions towards more negative or more positive paths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a dynamic spatial framework, this paper investigates how foreign direct investment ( FDI), foreign aid and remittances impact the economic growth of 53 African and 34 Latin American and Caribbean countries. Previous growth studies examine how one factor or two of these factors impacts economic growth, which results in biased estimation because of the omitted variable(s). Separate estimation shows foreign aid and FDI affects economic growth in Africa, but when we control for all three factors, only FDI affects African economic growth. For Latin America and the Caribbean, foreign aid and remittances affect growth when estimated separately, while remittances affect growth when they are estimated simultaneously. Finally, both regions' results confirm spatial interdependence is important in explaining economic growth, as growth in one country depends on the growth of its neighboring countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We calibrate a simple neoclassical growth model adapted to illustrate a process of structural transformation or industrialization to a group of nine South American countries. The paper shows that low levels of agricultural productivity can substantially delay the process of industrialization, which, together with low levels of non-agricultural productivity observed in recent decades, satisfactorily explains the significant differences in gross domestic product ( GDP) per capita levels among the countries in our sample. The results suggest that Argentina underwent the process of industrialization first followed by Uruguay, Chile, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Paraguay and Bolivia. The model predicts that the ranking of these countries in terms of GDP per capita would follow this order until convergence occurs. The empirical evidence confirms the prediction of the model with the exceptions of Uruguay and Chile which caught up with Argentina in terms of GDP per capita levels in the late 1980s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Women's labor supply in Sri Lanka has increased steadily since the early 1990s following economic reforms, but remains well below the level predicted by national income, a feature shared by a number of Asian and Latin American countries that have undergone similar reforms and economic growth. To understand the microeconomic determinants of women's work in Sri Lanka's growing economy, this paper estimates a binary‐choice model of married women's labor supply using household survey data spanning a 23‐year period. Decomposition and cohort analysis reveal that women have been drawn into the workforce through falling fertility rates, rising tertiary education, and declining income effects among younger generations, but other factors have undermined this positive trend. Educational attainment reduces married women's labor supply except at the tertiary level, consistent with social stigmas associated with married women in non‐white‐collar employment. The strict sectoral segregation of married women by education level supports this hypothesis. In addition, growth has been concentrated in low‐skilled sectors with self‐employment more prevalent, reducing employment prospects of educated women and prompting their labor force withdrawal. This suggests it is the structure of economic development, rather than speed, that matters for women's labor force activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical evidence suggests that financial development can catalyze property rights reforms. This paper offers a theory of financial markets to explain these facts defining the relationship. The explanation is based on a simple trade‐off between the costs and the benefits of securing property. Securing the right to property at a cost allows agents to post collateral against loans. However, the benefits of collateral vary according to the existing credit market conditions, which we take into account in the tradeoff between the costs and the benefits of securing property rights along the path of financial development to explain the conditions under which financial development can create incentives for better property rights institutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both policymakers and economists have tried to find criteria to assess whether economic growth is pro‐poor. In this paper we reconsider the inequality‐oriented approach originally proposed by Jenkins and Van Kerm. They look at the changes in the whole income distribution, and decompose the change in income inequality, measured by the Gini coefficient, into a progressivity and a reranking component. They define a pro‐poor (or progressive) change as one where the changes in income are more to the benefit of those who are initially poor than to the benefit of those who are initially rich. We challenge this assumption, and maintain that also the point of view of the finally poor and the finally rich should be taken into account when evaluating whether growth is pro‐poor. We suggest a new decomposition method, based on an inequality index of the generalized entropy family, which allows the change in income inequality to be decomposed exactly into a forward‐looking and a backward‐looking progressivity component. Our empirical illustration, using data from household surveys in Vietnam, shows that economic growth in Vietnam has been pro‐poor from a forward‐looking perspective, but not from a backward‐looking perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of structural change in the world economy. The analysis relies on a newly constructed dataset comprising 169 countries and covering the period from 1991 to 2013. Shapley decompositions are employed to evaluate the pace and pattern of structural change across regions and sub‐regions. Country‐level estimates are then used to conduct an original empirical exercise on the determinants of structural change. The results suggest that labor reallocations (structural change) have played a critical role in enhancing economic performance since the early 2000s, even if they remain comparatively less important than within‐sector productivity improvements. The widespread reallocation of labor from agriculture to the services sectors has been the key driver of structural change. Finally, we find robust evidence that the pace of structural change is significantly shaped by human and physical capital. The policy implication is that investments in education and economic infrastructure are crucial to accelerating structural change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we analyze the role of structural transformation in view of the remarkable growth performance of Sub‐Saharan African countries since the late 1990s. Our analysis covers 41 African countries over the period 1980 to 2014 and accounts for structural transformation by employing the analytical frameworks of (1) growth decomposition and (2) growth regression. Even though the low‐productive agricultural sector continues to employ most of the African workforce, our results reveal that structural transformation has taken place and that it has contributed significantly to African growth in the period 1980‐2014. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The tourism sector's contribution to economic development depends upon complex and dynamic socioeconomic, environmental, and institutional factors. Policymakers require objective evidence to base decisions on which public policies or investments to pursue. In this paper we develop an economy‐wide approach to assessing public investments in tourism. The approach is powerful in that it considers all inter‐sectoral linkages that are critical for tourism‐sector analysis. This framework is linked to a microsimulation module that enables estimation of household‐level and destination‐specific impacts and the distribution of benefits. To illustrate the framework and the insights it can generate, we apply it to a public investment in Belize's Cayo District. Our findings show that the overall level of economic activity increases while an appreciation of the real regional exchange rate results in slower growth in traditional nontourism exports. Greater availability of capital and labor to meet increased demand would reduce this effect. The investment results in a reduction in the poverty headcount on the order of 0.7 percentage points, though there is a small increase in inequality that is a function of the skill requirements of the new positions created as a result of the investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper offers an explanation of why, in Imperial China, the merchant class expanded and the economy modernized up to the 13th century, and why it entered into decline from the 14th century onward. The modernization of China required the accumulation of public capital and the building of good institutions, upon which a vibrant class of merchants and entrepreneurs could gradually emerge. This class contributed to the enrichment of the society and the emperor, but its activities also weakened the dominance of the emperor and the élite, who would then prefer to block the modernization of China and to restrict the size of the merchant class, putting the economy into long-run stagnation. However, when the emperor faced severe foreign military threats and when he realized that a modern sector improved the defense capabilities of China, he made the opposite choice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Private saving and economic growth are intimately linked, and low saving rates in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) have often been held responsible for disappointing growth in the region. Thus, identifying factors that spur saving is critical. This paper surveys previous empirical studies on LAC, highlighting contradictions, omissions and in some cases inconclusiveness of findings. Relying on a large dataset and a nested econometric framework, it analyzes private saving patterns and explores the role of its determinants in LAC, across LAC sub-regions and compared with other regions. While the results highlight great heterogeneity in private saving rates within LAC and compared with the rest of the world, saving determinants are broadly the same notwithstanding some differences in sensitivity and contributions' sizes, and include its lag, income, demographics and public saving. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship and interaction of military spending and economic growth have been theoretically and empirically investigated since the 1970s but it still cannot provide conclusive evidence towards the direction and the quantification of the impact between the two magnitudes. The use of different data sets in terms of time periods, and number and geographic location of countries, different theoretical background leading to different econometric specifications, and single type of econometric methodology, make any comparison impossible. This paper looks into the dynamic interaction between military spending and economic growth during the period 1988-2013 that includes the recent years of economic crisis covering 138 countries without making any prior assumptions about the theoretical channels of influence, while not limited to a single estimation method but employing a wide range of methodologies in order to form a complete picture of the long- and short-run interaction. Furthermore, as such interaction might not be linear, we create three groups of countries based on the countries' income developmental stage. Overall we find no evidence of long- and short-run causality from the military spending to economic growth except for the developing countries (positive in the long run). However, from economic growth to military spending we find a positive impact for all groups except the least developed countries. We also notice the interaction was more prominent prior to the start of the economic crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines how collective remittances contribute to regional development by using the community-level two-year panel data for the states of Jalisco and Zacatecas in Mexico, which have received the higher amounts of the budget of the Program 3×1 for Migrants. The results from empirical analyses show that the communities that received this program became better-off between 2000 and 2005, according to the marginalization level. Further analyses suggest that specifically investment in roads, water supply, and non-agricultural productive projects by the 3×1 program improved community welfare. The regression results on access to the program show, however, that neither the marginalization level nor the migration level determined the access to the program. This suggests that the 3×1 program was not necessarily targeted at the communities with higher marginalization and migration levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper identifies factors associated with takeoff-a sustained period of high growth following a period of stagnation. Countries that experience takeoffs average 2.3% annual growth following their stagnation episodes, while those that do not average 0%. Using probit, we find that de jure trade openness is positively and significantly associated with takeoffs. A one-standard-deviation increase in de jure trade openness is associated with a 55% increase in the probability of a takeoff in our default specification. Capital account openness encourages takeoff responses, but measures of de facto trade openness are found to be poor predictors of takeoffs. We also examine the determinants of nations achieving 'sustained' takeoffs; i.e. those lasting eight years or longer. Takeoffs in countries with more commodity-intensive output bundles are less likely to be sustained, suggesting that adverse terms-of-trade shocks may play a role in ending long-term high growth episodes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gender inequality and the lack of gender development are major problems in developing countries. Neoclassical economics has generally argued that economic development will greatly enhance gender development. However, more recent work has emphasized the role of institutions. In this paper, a distinction is made between malleable institutions and those that change only over long periods of time. Empirical estimations of the impacts of economic development, malleable institutions, and hard-to-change institutions on gender development are carried out. The results indicate that both economic development and reform of malleable institutions are important determinants of relative gender performance. However, non-malleable institutions and cultural practices limit the impact that reform and economic development can have on relative gender performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most of the empirical studies that analyze the impact of corruption on investment have three common features: they employ country-level data on investment, corruption is measured at the country level, and data for countries from several regions are pooled together. This paper uses firm-level data on investment and measures corruption at the firm and country level, and allows the effect of corruption to vary by region. Our dependent variable is firms' investment growth and we employ six measures of corruption from four different sources—two firm-level measures and four country-level measures. We find that the effect of corruption on investments varies significantly across regions: corruption has a negative and significant effect on investment growth for firms in Transition countries but has no significant impact for firms in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa. Furthermore, for Transition countries, corruption is the most important determinant of investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers a two-country, three-good economy in which one country imposes tariffs on import goods at a uniform rate, while the other country engages in free trade. In such an economy, we examine the welfare effects of changing tariff rates toward differential tariffs from uniform tariffs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the circumstances under which foreign aid can immiserize a small, tariff-distorted economy, highlighting the role played by the nontraded sector in generating this outcome. An inflow of aid, provided in the form of an increase in the capital stock, can reduce real income of a small, tariff-distorted economy if: (i) the inflow results in an increase in the price of the nontraded good and the nontraded good and imports are sufficiently strong complements in demand; or (ii) if the inflow leads to a reduction in the price of the nontraded good and the nontraded good and imports are substitutes in demand, provided the degree of substitutability is not too large. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper models the allocation of bilateral foreign development aid to developing countries. A simple theoretical framework is developed, in which aid is treated as a private good of a donor country bureaucratic group responsible for bilateral aid allocation. This model is applied to time series data for ten principal recipients of bilateral official development assistance. Features of this application are that it caters for the joint determination of aid allocations and for donor allocation behavior to differ among individual recipient countries. Results indicate that both recipient need and donor interest variables determine the amount of foreign aid to developing countries, and that donor allocation behavior often differs markedly among recipients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The implications of the division of labor, capital, and technology for economic growth have long been a fundamental issue in development economics. This paper employs the bounds testing approach to cointegration to examine the relationship between the division of labor, capital accumulation, communication technology, and economic growth for China over the period 1952–99. We find that in the long run, capital stock and the division of labor both have statistically significant positive effects on growth, while in the short run the effects are not significantly positive. Telecommunication technology, rather surprisingly, has a statistically insignificant impact on growth both in the long run and in the short run. Our findings indicate that there exists a long run equilibrium relationship between capital and the division of labor on the one hand, and economic growth on the other, thereby lending support to the division of labor theory of growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The successful industrialization and catch up of countries in the East Asian region gave rise to an important debate concerning the role played by technological learning and knowledge creation. This paper seeks to examine this issue for Indonesia, a second-tier newly industrializing country. It focuses on the relative importance of learning from imported inputs vis-à-vis other factors influencing productivity in manufacturing. The concept of learning is operationalized drawing on the literature on technology spillovers on the one hand, and the literature on catch up à la Abramovitz, on the other. Our results indicate that knowledge spillovers have become significant contributors to labor productivity growth after the liberalization of the Indonesian economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model with status-seeking agents. We show that the introduction of status-seeking behavior brings about new properties in equilibrium dynamics. While there exists a continuum of steady states in the standard dynamic models, the present framework demonstrates that, under some conditions, there uniquely exists an incompletely specialized steady state, which is locally saddle-point stable. Therefore, catching-up and overtaking phenomena seen in economic development can be explained, and comparative statics analysis also is made possible. Our comparative statics analysis illustrates, for example, that trade pattern is determined in the Heckscher–Ohlin manner; the patient country acts just like a capital abundant one to export the capital-intensive good. Furthermore, as distinct from the existing literature, the present study shows that the existence of an incompletely specialized steady state can be ensured even if the two countries conduct different policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a theoretical and empirical investigation of the simultaneous effects of taxes and government spending on long-run economic growth in an endogenous growth framework. A two-sector model is considered: one sector produces physical output and the other produces human capital. Government expenditure is divided into several categories, and several types of taxes are included. The property tax is especially interesting because it is a major source of revenue for local government. The theoretical model is estimated using annual panel data from North Carolina counties. This study finds that state-level fiscal policies affect economic growth but county-level fiscal policies do not. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How much of China’s recent economic performance can be attributed to market-oriented reforms introduced in the last two decades? A long-run perspective may be important for understanding the process of economic development occurring today. This paper compares the integration of rice markets in China today and 270 years ago. In the eighteenth century, transport technology was non-mechanized, but markets were close to being free. We distinguish local harvest and weather from aggregate sources of price variation in a historical sample and in a similarly constructed contemporary sample. Findings indicate the degree of market integration in the 1720s is a very good predictor of per capita income in the 1990s. Moreover, the current pattern of interregional income in China is strongly linked to persistent geographic factors that were already apparent several centuries ago, well before the enactment of modern reform programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper analyzes how policy intervention should be designed so as to create industrialization. We focus on whether intervention should be targeted, promoting investment in specific firms or industries, or broad based, increasing the profitability of investment in general. Our main argument is that in areas with weak institutions, broad based policies should be chosen, while in areas with strong institutions, targeted policies may be less costly in moving the economy out of a poverty trap. The targeted policy is attractive because it internalized a demand externality, but is also more exposed to rent seeking, since “picking a winner” involves a greater measure of discretion in policy formulation and implementation. The broad based policy does not discriminate between industries and is, hence, less likely to be captured by rent seekers, but also does not take advantage of the demand externality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the employment and welfare effects of mixed ownership via partial privatization of state-owned enterprises for a developing economy. An increase in the private ownership lowers the production and, hence, worsens urban unemployment in the short run. However, in the long run, capital moves to the rural region, alleviating the problem of urban unemployment. The employment effect can have a positive contribution to social welfare in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Political competition between European countries has been viewed as being a stimulus to the innovation process and part of the reason why Europe was the first region of the world to experience sustained growth. Countries that fell behind their rivals technologically and economically became more vulnerable to exploitation. In this way, the presence of rival states provided added incentive to innovate. This paper uses a simple model of conflict between countries to study the role of political competition in economic growth. The governments of each country are threatened politically by innovation and, hence, face a trade-off between the stability of their regime and keeping up with their rivals. The model shows that “institutional spillovers,” such as a decrease in the level of rent-seeking in one country, can affect growth in a competing country. Thus, political fragmentation can be growth enhancing as it can result in more political competition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between the ability of workers to change job, sector or industry and the short-run adjustment costs associated with a reallocation of labor is the subject of lively debate among academics. This paper examines recent sector and industry level labor market adjustment in the UK using data from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey. We explore the link between the nature of UK trade patterns and labor adjustment within the manufacturing sector and employ a multinomial logit approach to examine the determinants of “within” and “between” industry mobility. By controlling for individual skill specificity we find some evidence of a link between intra-industry trade and intra-industry labor adjustment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper constructs a dynamic North–South trade model with outsourcing and endogenous innovation. Production of high quality goods is first performed in the North (Northern phase), then split between the North and the South (Outsourcing phase), and finally shifted to the South (Southern phase). This cycle is reignited whenever a Northern firm innovates a higher quality product. We find that an increase in the fraction of outsourced production raises the Northern skill premium unambiguously, while raising the Southern skill premium if and only if the skill intensity of outsourced production is higher than that of local Southern production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A key goal of renewable resource managers in developing countries is to take actions to ensure that the resource being managed stays away from irreversible or crisis states, in which it provides neither consumptive nor non-consumptive services to humans. However, despite a manager's best efforts, the resource may still hit a crisis state. Therefore, given a particular management regime, it is useful to know how long it takes until the resource hits a crisis state. In this paper, the authors provide a theoretical analysis of this hitherto unstudied question. They first probabilistically delineate two management regimes. Next, they compute the expected time until crisis for both these regimes. Finally, they provide a numerical example to illustrate the working of their model and then discuss the implications of their findings for renewable resource management in developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates various channels through which foreign technology diffuses to the manufacturing sector of developing economies. These economies undertake virtually no own R&D, so they rely on foreign technology to a much larger extent than developed economies. We investigate the direct effect of foreign R&D, as well as technology embodied in imports of intermediate and capital goods and foreign direct investment, on the growth of total factor productivity and value added in the manufacturing sector of 32 economies during 1965–92. We find that foreign R&D typically has the biggest positive impact on domestic productivity and value-added growth. Imports of capital goods and foreign direct investment also play a similar role, but their effect is of smaller magnitude and is not always significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we use a VAR approach to investigate the effects of public investment in transportation infrastructures on private investment, employment, and output in Portugal. Estimation results suggest that public investment crowds in private investment and employment, and has a strong positive effect on output. We estimate that one euro in public investment increases output in the long-term by 9.5 euros, which corresponds to a rate of return of 15.9%. These figures imply that there are strong long-term budgetary benefits from public investment in the form of increased future tax revenues. A closer look at the effects of different types of public investment uncovers the same general patterns. These results are very important from a public policy perspective. They suggest that the strategy followed by the Portuguese authorities of investing in public infrastructures is justified, both from a long-term development perspective and a long-term public budgetary perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the interactions between uncertainty, investment and economic growth. Utilizing panel data for a sample of 59 industrial and developing countries between 1966 and 1992, we estimate reduced form equations to explore the possible effects of uncertainty on economic growth and investments. Uncertainty reduces both investment and growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines job construction and destruction patterns in Greek manufacturing for the period 1995–99, just before Greece's entry to the European Monetary Union (EMU). The analysis uses descriptive statistics and regression models and is performed on a longitudinal sample of 6164 firms, classified by size of employment and by manufacturing sector. The results show the dynamic role small- and medium-sized firms play in net employment creation in Greek manufacturing. High technology and capital-intensive manufacturing sectors contribute mostly to net employment growth. Age of the firm is adversely connected to employment growth, while export activity and location of firms contribute significantly in net job creation. Significant determinants to employment growth are firm size, age, profitability, sales growth, reliance on debt and investment in new fixed assets. Economic policy measures are suggested to promote the establishment and survival of new small manufacturing firms, and the growth of the surviving ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines the relationship between economic growth, tax policy, and distribution of capital and labor ownership in a one-sector political-economy model of endogenous growth with productive government spending financed by a proportional tax on capital income. The analysis shows that inequality in wealth and income can be positively or negatively related to the optimal tax rate. In either environment, higher inequality leads to a lower after-tax return to capital, thereby reducing the economy's growth rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents an endogenous growth model where the level of international transaction costs may be decisive for whether the relatively poor East specializes in agriculture production, imitates goods from the rich West, or makes its own innovations. The author shows that the East produces only agricultural goods if transaction costs are high, while innovation is profitable when transaction costs are low. In between there are a range of transaction costs where the East imitates, possibly resulting in a lower global growth rate and a larger international wage gap than if imitation were not possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines the effect of inequality on growth among the subnational states in India. Theoretically, growth of the regional economy is driven by productive public investment in the provision of health and education services financed by a linear output tax, and the optimum tax rate is determined by the median voter. In contrast to existing results, the authors obtain an ambiguous relationship between initial inequality and subsequent economic growth. Analysis of the Indian state-level data suggests that rural inequality influences growth of total output more than urban inequality, and does so negatively. The indicator of intersectoral inequality is more important in explaining sectoral output growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The paper investigates the effects of Sub-Saharan African colonial heritage on economic growth in a sample of nonindustrial countries. An empirical Solow growth model is specified in a way that allows an examination of whether or not growth in Sub-Saharan Africa reflects a legacy of extractive colonialization strategies, motivated by a hostile disease environment that resulted in extractive growth-retarding institutions that persisted after independence. Parameter estimates suggest that the partial effects of extractive institutions engendered by a twentieth century colonial heritage account for approximately 30% of the growth gap between the former colonies in Sub-Saharan Africa and other nonindustrial countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper explores a model in which growth is determined by a combination of human capital and technology adoption. At the heart of the model is the notion of “contiguous knowledge”—the idea that knowledge spreads out a certain distance. Because of this property of knowledge, a country can adopt existing technology only when it is sufficiently close to the technological frontier. Unlike the neoclassical growth model, the proposed model predictions are pessimistic for countries that are far away from the frontier. The model is thus able to account both for rapid growth episodes and economic stagnation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines the nature of spatial dependence of growth rates across countries. Economic space as well as geographic space is considered as a possible medium through which growth rates may be correlated. The results indicate that the growth rates of developing countries are influenced by the lagged growth rates of their trading partners’ growth rates. Industrialized countries’ growth rates, on the other hand, display only contemporaneous correlation with others’ growth rates that can be explained by the presence of time-specific global shocks. The conclusions seem consistent with a general model of North–South trade with endogenous knowledge-generated growth in the North and imitation, trade-driven growth in the South. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the relationship between economic and social development. Contrary to the view of those who believe in the existence of a tradeoff between democracy and growth, the paper contends that consensus-building, open dialog and the promotion of an active civil society are key ingredients to longterm sustainable development. Development is a participatory process. "Best practices" or reforms that are imposed on a country through conditionality may very well fail to produce lasting change. They will tend to undermine people's incentives to develop their own capacities and weaken their confidence in using their own intelligence. Success in a knowledge-based economy requires a highly-educated citizenry, involved in the process of shaping and adapting ideas and policies. Participation and democracy in turn call for greater transparency and accountability in both the corporate and government sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines the real per-capita growth effects of the quality of democracy, the rule of law, and capital flows in developing countries. The direct growth effects of democracy are positive and often statistically significant. Moreover, the estimates from a three-stage least-squares regression offer evidence that democracy has indirect growth effects that work by encouraging schooling and that the rule of law influences growth indirectly by encouraging foreign direct investment. A higher FDI to GDP ratio is associated with a faster growth rate. The estimated growth effect of the FDI to GDP ratio is several times higher than the estimated growth effect of the domestic investment to GDP ratio. By contrast, this study does not find a clear association between other types of capital flows and growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper reconsiders the relationship between international banking risk and economic development. It is shown quite conclusively that the significant explanatory variables of international banking risk scores (when international banking risk is used as a proxy for country risk) are the income elasticity of demand for imports (when the latter is used as an indicator of economic growth and development), the phase of industrialization (based on country per capita income), and certain historical economic and financial variables (external debt levels and international bank size according to total assets). The investigation arrives at a new approach to risk scoring systems and models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]