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Energy is pivotal for sustainable economic growth. Undoubtedly, the role of the composition of the export basket (measured as economic complexity) is one of the crucial variables influencing energy consumption. Despite its importance, the existing body of literature does not intensively study the relationship between economic complexity and total energy consumption. Therefore, this study's primary aim was to examine the effect of economic complexity on energy consumption in a case study of 21 developed and 44 developing countries for the period 1971–2014. In this context, economic complexity expresses the level of sophistication of a country's export basket. This paper considers energy prices and income as explanatory variables in Durbin‐H panel cointegration analysis and applies a cointegration test with structural breaks to check for the long‐run relationships. For the long‐run estimations, we employ the augmented mean group method and dynamic seemingly unrelated regression. The findings reveal that economic complexity increases energy consumption in developing countries while it decreases energy consumption in developed countries. This is an important insight for countries concerned about their energy dependence. The diversification of their production and export baskets can reduce energy needs. The paper finally presents policy recommendations based on the empirical estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper sets up a vertically related market model in which imitation and innovation are endogenously determined to study the impact of intellectual property rights ( IPR) protection on less-developed countries. It shows how a less-developed country switches from imitation to innovation as it develops. It is also found that the relationship between IPR protection and economic development is U-shaped. The IPR protection tends to go down and then go up as income rises. This finding also conforms with that in the empirical literature on IPR protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the factors driving manufacturing growth accelerations in a sample of 134 developing countries over the period 1970 to 2014. We first identify growth acceleration episodes of manufacturing value added (MVA) by their year of initiation and according to a country's income classification. We then estimate a probit model to explain what factors predict these MVA growth accelerations. Our results show that human capital and institutions represent contextual factors that favor the growth of manufacturing, together with macroeconomic policies related to investment, and openness to foreign trade and capital. We also find that most of these factors not only foster episodic accelerations of industry, but they contribute as well to a sustained process of industrialization that characterized the process of economic growth of a few successful countries over the period 1970 to 2014. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a dynamic spatial framework, this paper investigates how foreign direct investment ( FDI), foreign aid and remittances impact the economic growth of 53 African and 34 Latin American and Caribbean countries. Previous growth studies examine how one factor or two of these factors impacts economic growth, which results in biased estimation because of the omitted variable(s). Separate estimation shows foreign aid and FDI affects economic growth in Africa, but when we control for all three factors, only FDI affects African economic growth. For Latin America and the Caribbean, foreign aid and remittances affect growth when estimated separately, while remittances affect growth when they are estimated simultaneously. Finally, both regions' results confirm spatial interdependence is important in explaining economic growth, as growth in one country depends on the growth of its neighboring countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper models the allocation of bilateral foreign development aid to developing countries. A simple theoretical framework is developed, in which aid is treated as a private good of a donor country bureaucratic group responsible for bilateral aid allocation. This model is applied to time series data for ten principal recipients of bilateral official development assistance. Features of this application are that it caters for the joint determination of aid allocations and for donor allocation behavior to differ among individual recipient countries. Results indicate that both recipient need and donor interest variables determine the amount of foreign aid to developing countries, and that donor allocation behavior often differs markedly among recipients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The successful industrialization and catch up of countries in the East Asian region gave rise to an important debate concerning the role played by technological learning and knowledge creation. This paper seeks to examine this issue for Indonesia, a second-tier newly industrializing country. It focuses on the relative importance of learning from imported inputs vis-à-vis other factors influencing productivity in manufacturing. The concept of learning is operationalized drawing on the literature on technology spillovers on the one hand, and the literature on catch up à la Abramovitz, on the other. Our results indicate that knowledge spillovers have become significant contributors to labor productivity growth after the liberalization of the Indonesian economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper constructs a dynamic North–South trade model with outsourcing and endogenous innovation. Production of high quality goods is first performed in the North (Northern phase), then split between the North and the South (Outsourcing phase), and finally shifted to the South (Southern phase). This cycle is reignited whenever a Northern firm innovates a higher quality product. We find that an increase in the fraction of outsourced production raises the Northern skill premium unambiguously, while raising the Southern skill premium if and only if the skill intensity of outsourced production is higher than that of local Southern production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A key goal of renewable resource managers in developing countries is to take actions to ensure that the resource being managed stays away from irreversible or crisis states, in which it provides neither consumptive nor non-consumptive services to humans. However, despite a manager's best efforts, the resource may still hit a crisis state. Therefore, given a particular management regime, it is useful to know how long it takes until the resource hits a crisis state. In this paper, the authors provide a theoretical analysis of this hitherto unstudied question. They first probabilistically delineate two management regimes. Next, they compute the expected time until crisis for both these regimes. Finally, they provide a numerical example to illustrate the working of their model and then discuss the implications of their findings for renewable resource management in developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates various channels through which foreign technology diffuses to the manufacturing sector of developing economies. These economies undertake virtually no own R&D, so they rely on foreign technology to a much larger extent than developed economies. We investigate the direct effect of foreign R&D, as well as technology embodied in imports of intermediate and capital goods and foreign direct investment, on the growth of total factor productivity and value added in the manufacturing sector of 32 economies during 1965–92. We find that foreign R&D typically has the biggest positive impact on domestic productivity and value-added growth. Imports of capital goods and foreign direct investment also play a similar role, but their effect is of smaller magnitude and is not always significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the interactions between uncertainty, investment and economic growth. Utilizing panel data for a sample of 59 industrial and developing countries between 1966 and 1992, we estimate reduced form equations to explore the possible effects of uncertainty on economic growth and investments. Uncertainty reduces both investment and growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the channels through which the middle class may matter for consumption growth. Using several different middle-class measures and a panel of 105 developing countries spanning the period 1985-2013, we find that a larger middle class influences consumption growth primarily through higher levels of human capital accumulation. There is also a significant direct effect of middle-class size on consumption growth, which is more pronounced in the latter half of the sample, the 2000-2013 period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many of the problems of privatization in developing countries result from the lack of information about the situation of the economy and from the lack of determination on their path of privatization. This paper addresses the lack of information by presenting a theory of incomplete privatization contracts. It then turns to the lack of determination, dealing with particular problems of partially privatized firms and, finally, postulating an elaborate system of price regulation of privatized monopolies, which typically is missing in developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The link between foreign aid and economic growth has been a controversial issue with no strong consensus so far. This paper argues that a possible reason why some studies may conclude that aid is ineffective in promoting economic growth might be that not all aid is given for development purposes (i.e. aid given for strategic considerations, humanitarian reasons or emergency relief). This study classifies foreign aid into four subcategories: agricultural aid, social infrastructure aid, investment aid, and non-investment aid. Using the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation technique on a Barro type growth regression with panel data from the aid recipient economies, this paper finds that when aid is directed to the agricultural sector of the developing countries, it is positively and significantly related to growth and can affect economic growth in the short run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates empirically the relationship between two channels of external openness: international trade, foreign direct investment (FDI), and the rate of economic growth implied by the leader-follower model. The predictions of the theory are tested for the group of 97 developing countries in the period of 1974-2006 using static and dynamic panel data estimation methods. The estimation results show that both international trade and FDI positively contribute to growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considering sustainability a matter of intergenerational welfare equity, this paper examines whether an optimal development path can also be sustainable. It argues that the general 'zero-net-aggregate-investment' condition for an optimal development path to be sustainable in the sense of the maximin criterion of intergenerational justice is too demanding to be practical, especially in the context of developing countries. It further argues that while the maximin criterion of sustainability may be appealing to the rich advanced industrial countries, for the poor developing countries it implies equalization of poverty across generations, and as such is too costly a moral obligation to be acceptable. The paper suggests that a compromise development policy that follows the optimal growth approach but adopts certain measures to mitigate both the intergenerational and intragenerational welfare inequalities may be more appropriate for these countries. Some of the principal elements of such a policy are highlighted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effects of fiscal deficits on the current account deficits in the Indian economy. In many developing countries, fiscal deficits are mostly financed through monetization, causing crowding out of private investment expenditures. However, fiscal deficits in India are mostly financed through official borrowings from various external sources, leading to higher interest payments and outgoings on the external account. Such a policy could eventually precipitate balance of payments crises despite favorable trade account and real exchange rate. Data over three decades for the Indian economy show that, in addition to the real exchange rate and the ratio of private investment to GDP, fiscal deficits significantly contribute to the current account deficits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies technology adoption in an optimal growth model with embodied technical change. The economy consists of the final good sector, the capital sector, and the technology sector which role is the imitation of exogenous innovations. Scarce labor resources are allocated to the technology and final good sectors. The final good is allocated to consumption and to the capital sector. The authors analytically characterize the long run optimal allocations. Using a calibrated version of the model, they find that an acceleration in the rate of embodied technical change should not be responded by an immediate and strong adoption effort. Instead, adoption labor should decrease in the short run, and the optimal technological gap is shown to increase either in the short or in the long run. The state of the institutions and policies around the technology sector is key in the design of the optimal adoption timing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most international trade models fail to account for the fact that almost all goods must pass through the distribution sector. The authors compare different approaches to modeling distribution within an Applied General Equilibrium framework and find that such modeling may significantly affect trade opening simulations. They also predict large potential gains from streamlining distribution. For instance, a 10% reduction in Japan's final goods distribution margins would benefit it as much as worldwide free trade would. They also find that, compared to trade opening, reducing margins leads to smaller inter-sectoral production shifts and thus may engender less political opposition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aspects related to the links between international migration, foreign aid and the welfare state are highlighted in this paper. Migration is modeled as a costly movement from an aid-recipient developing country with low income and no welfare state, towards a rich donor, developed country with a well-developed welfare state. Within this model, it is found, among other things, that the best response of the developed donor country is to increase aid as the co-financing rate by the recipient country increases. When the immigration cost decreases, e.g. as a result of greater economic integration between the two countries, it is beneficial for the donor country to increase aid and the recipient country to increase the co-financing rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines and resolves a puzzling issue associated with less developed country (LDC) export compositions. Since the newly industrialized country (NIC) takeoff during the early 1970s, LDC exports have involved an increasingly broader and diversified export base. Yet trade theories, both 'old' that focus on classic comparative advantage, and 'new' which rely on scale economies, lead to expectations of growing specialization as a concomitant of LDC takeoff. This study examines periods of rapid growth and structural transformation of trade for a representative group of LDCs covering a wide geographic and temporal sample. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Proposes a formal framework to assess the plausibility of a development strategy which is centrally based on an initial, successful transformation of agriculture as a springboard for a developing country's efforts toward industrialization. Structural change in the economy as a result of technological advances in agriculture; Longer-run prospect of economic growth.

Africa has the largest number and proportion of fragile states in the world. Fragile states are characterized by slower economic growth, higher incidences of poverty, and persistent inequality. Thus, there is a circular relationship between fragility, inequality, and slow economic growth. This study examines the relationship between fragility, financial inequalities, and inclusive growth in African countries. We introduce a novel way of examining inclusive growth in African countries by developing a unified measure of inclusive growth that captures the two dimensions of inclusive growth: income growth and income distribution. This enables us to adequately assess not just increased opportunities arising from economic growth, but also see how those new opportunities are distributed across all segments of the population. We captured the fragile status of African countries by using an index of fragility. We measured financial inequalities using new data on financial inclusion. The data analysis suggested negative relationships between fragility and inclusive growth in African countries. In addition, the results suggest positive relationships between financial inclusion and inclusive growth. Thus, inclusive growth can be fostered through policies that reduce financial inequalities. Therefore, a less fragile environment is conducive to inclusive growth both directly and indirectly through financial inclusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using firm-level data from 2006 to 2013 for a set of developing countries, we examine the effects of financial development on innovation. Financial development boosts innovation by improving resource allocation and investment in strategic sectors as well as facilitating technology to promote growth. Using binary response models and instrumental variable techniques to correct for endogeneity, we find robust but puzzling results. Contrary to most of the existing literature, financial development has a negative effect on the probability of a firm to innovate in developing countries. This effect is conditional on firm size, and only larger firms benefit from financial development. These results are robust to different measures of financial development and econometric specifications. We argue that this is a result of the design of the financial system in regard to the lack of capital and institutional system. Consequently, developing countries should first generate appropriate institutional conditions if they want financial development to spur growth through innovation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some models support the notion that exchange-rate uncertainty promotes economic growth while others suggest that exchange-rate uncertainty slows growth. Most empirical work supports the latter hypothesis, leading policymakers to strive for more stable exchange rates. The authors question the appropriateness of the methodology usually employed, and variables constructed to measure the impact of exchange-rate uncertainty on growth. They use an alternative approach and find no discernable impact of exchange-rate uncertainty on economic performance as captured by production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we develop an analytical general equilibrium model of the equilibrium exchange rate for emerging countries. This theoretical framework allows us to identify a relevant set of variables which determinate the equilibrium exchange rate and to explore how these variables influence the trajectory of the equilibrium exchange rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the role of clusters in promoting industrial development has been increasingly recognized in the literature, the locational choice of industrial clusters and the underlying factors affecting such a choice have seldom been analyzed, particularly in the context of industrial development in developing countries. In this article, the authors hypothesize that industrial clusters tend to be formed in suburban areas, where the division of labor among enterprises producing diverse products is intense. They obtained supportive evidence through regression analyses of changes in employment and value-added ratio using township-level census data of selected industries in Taiwan from 1976 to 1996. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We empirically examine whether and how opportunistic and partisan political business cycle (“PBC”) considerations explain election-period decisions by credit rating agencies (“agencies”) publishing developing country sovereign risk-ratings (“ratings”). Analyses of 391 agency ratings for 19 countries holding 39 presidential elections from 1987–2000, initially suggest that elections themselves prompt rating downgrades consistent with opportunistic PBC considerations, that incumbents are all likely to implement election-period policies detrimental to post-election creditworthiness. But more refined analyses, integrating both opportunistic and partisan PBC considerations in a unified framework, suggest that election-period agency downgrades (upgrades) are more likely as right-wing (left-wing) incumbents, become more vulnerable to ouster by challengers. Together, these results underscore the importance of integrating both opportunistic and partisan PBC considerations into any explanation of election-period risk assessments of agencies and, perhaps, other private, foreign-based financial actors important to the pricing and allocation of capital for lending and investment in the developing world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]