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The increasing attention to social protection in urban settings is not being paired with increasing evidence. This paper offers a single ex‐ante evaluation methodology that simulates the monetary poverty effects of changing eligibility conditions, unitary benefits, and the composition of cash transfer programs aimed at expanding coverage in urban areas. We apply this methodology to Ghana, a growing, middle‐income country committed to reducing poverty but with a weak social protection system with little urban presence. We show that while a flagship cash transfer program, the Livelihood Empowerment Against Poverty program (LEAP), transfers less than GHS 34 million (US$7.6 million) a year, ending extreme poverty in Ghana would require spending around GHS 1,800 million ($400 million). Efforts to tackle urban poverty through transfers will prove unsuccessful without enough fiscal resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we examine how remittances, an outcome of labor mobility, affect labor market activities in Ghana using detailed household and individual‐level data. This is important, considering the extensive literature that has documented the remittance–poverty reduction nexus. First, we find a strong negative association between household remittance‐receiving status and individual labor supply decisions using instrumental variable estimation techniques. Second, we find the depressing effect of remittances on labor supply decisions to be much stronger in rural areas. Rural women who reside in remittance‐receiving households are less likely to be in the labor force compared with those who do not reside in such households. Remittances have very little impact on labor supply decisions in urban areas. Our findings support that remittances can exacerbate long‐term poverty reduction in rural areas through lower labor force participation, and as such rural‐based and gender‐based interventions may be needed to help redirect remittance income. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The wide use of mobile phones increases low‐income individuals' access to a large range of services. One of these services is mobile banking (m‐banking). Today, m‐banking represents a key vector of financial inclusion in many countries in sub‐Saharan Africa, especially Senegal. Based on technology adoption theories applied to households in developing countries, this paper studies the determinants of the adoption and use of m‐banking. We distinguish between possession or adoption and actual use of m‐banking and examine the interdependence between these two decisions by using the Heckman sample selection model, through a sample of 1,052 individuals in the suburbs of Dakar. Our main results are that the two decisions (adoption and use) are not independent of each other. Individual characteristics, such as education, possession of a bank account, and family network effects, are determinants of the adoption, and age, gender, and being a member of a tontine are determinants of the use. A major result of this study concerns women's low propensity to adopt m‐banking because of their low levels of education. However, compared with men, when women adopt m‐banking, they have a stronger propensity to use it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peace is fragile, about half of all peace episodes break down within the first eight post‐conflict years. In Sub‐Saharan Africa this risk is even higher. Using survival analysis this paper suggests that while it is difficult to find correlates of peace stabilization, there are some policy relevant results. How a conflict ends is important. Negotiated settlements are fragile but the chances of peace surviving can be significantly improved through the deployment of UN peacekeeping operations. This also appears to be the case for Sub‐Saharan Africa but case study evidence suggests that peacekeepers face particularly complex situations in the region and should therefore be well resourced in order to increase their chance of success [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to most classifications, Sub‐Saharan Africa is the region of the world with the highest presence of fragile states. In this paper we examine the relationship between fragility and poverty, suggesting that countries may become trapped in a vicious circle of fragility and low levels of wellbeing. We consider fragility as a continuum and begin by reviewing available measures. These show the high presence of fragility in Sub‐Saharan Africa and allow the more fragile countries to be identified. There is seen to be a strong association between fragility, poor growth performance, and lower wellbeing in Sub‐Saharan Africa. Building on the strong evidence for the two‐way relationship between economic growth and poverty, we present an analysis of how the vicious circle linking poorer welfare outcomes and fragility may be able to be broken. We argue that building successful institutions is key here, and this can be enabled by specific policy interventions that are both poverty reducing and productive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we analyze the role of structural transformation in view of the remarkable growth performance of Sub‐Saharan African countries since the late 1990s. Our analysis covers 41 African countries over the period 1980 to 2014 and accounts for structural transformation by employing the analytical frameworks of (1) growth decomposition and (2) growth regression. Even though the low‐productive agricultural sector continues to employ most of the African workforce, our results reveal that structural transformation has taken place and that it has contributed significantly to African growth in the period 1980‐2014. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates wage effects of trade status of African firms. Using data for manufacturing firms, we find a positive overall association between individual earnings and export status. Moreover, the skill wage premium in exporting firms is significantly higher. These results are consistent with either trade inducing higher wages in the exporting country, or with more productive (higher wage) firms self-selecting into exporting. The results are not robust, however, to disaggregation by export destination. Exporting to outside Africa generates a negative wage premium whereas exporting to African markets yields a positive premium in export firms of the exporting country. This suggests that there is a disciplining effect on the wages of exporting firms only when exporting is to more competitive markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The paper investigates the effects of Sub-Saharan African colonial heritage on economic growth in a sample of nonindustrial countries. An empirical Solow growth model is specified in a way that allows an examination of whether or not growth in Sub-Saharan Africa reflects a legacy of extractive colonialization strategies, motivated by a hostile disease environment that resulted in extractive growth-retarding institutions that persisted after independence. Parameter estimates suggest that the partial effects of extractive institutions engendered by a twentieth century colonial heritage account for approximately 30% of the growth gap between the former colonies in Sub-Saharan Africa and other nonindustrial countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This study contributes to the aid‐effectiveness debate using panel data from 43 sub‐Saharan African countries over the period 1980–2013. Its novelty lies in assessing the intermediary role of institutions and the importance of recipient and donor heterogeneity. The long‐run growth effect of (aggregate) aid from “traditional” donors is robustly non‐positive, and the indirect effect is negative. Disaggregation reveals donor heterogeneity. Chinese aid outperforms aggregate aid from traditional donors with respect to growth; however, it has a negative institutional effect. Recipient heterogeneity is largely a short‐run phenomenon, with only a few countries showing some deviations from shared long‐run parameter sets. Comparing donor behavior suggests that the future of aid would benefit more from focusing on quality – particularly, specialization and donor alignment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The general policy prescription for resource-rich countries is that, for sustainable consumption, a greater percentage of the windfall from resource rents should be channeled into accumulating foreign assets such as a sovereign public fund as done in Norway and other developed but resource-rich countries. This might not be a correct policy prescription for resource-rich sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, where public capital is very low to support the needed economic growth. In such countries, rents from resources serve as an opportunity to scale-up the needed public capital. Using a panel data for the period 1990-2013, we find in line with the scaling-up hypothesis that resource rents significantly increases public investment in SSA and that this tends to depend on the quality of political institutions. Moreover, we also find evidence of a positive effect of public investment on economic growth, which also depends on the level of resource rents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the evolvement of education inequality and the gender gap in Ghana before and after two major education reforms. Using different measures of inequality, our findings suggest that the gender gap at the basic school level has closed following the introduction of the education expansion policies, but inequalities persist at the postbasic school levels and across regions. We further demonstrate that the educational expansion–schooling inequality nexus is best illustrated by an inverted U‐shaped Kuznets curve. We find that after an average of 6 years of schooling has been reached, inequality starts to decline, and gender equality can be achieved when the average years of schooling reach 9. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sub-Saharan Africa will be undergoing substantial demographic changes over the next 15 years with the rising working-age share of its population. The opportunity of African countries to convert these changes into demographic dividends for growth and poverty reduction will depend on several factors. The outlook will likely be good if African countries can continue the gains already made under better institutions and policies, particularly those affecting the productivity of labor, such as educational outcomes. If African countries can continue to build on the hard-won development gains, the demographic dividend could account for 11-15% of gross domestic product ( GDP) volume growth by 2030, while accounting for 40-60 million fewer poor in 2030. The gains can become more substantial with better educational outcomes that allow African countries to catch up to other developing countries. If the skill share of Africa's labor supply doubles because of improvements in educational attainment, from 25 to about 50% between 2011 and 2030, then the demographic dividends can expand the regional economy additionally by 22% by 2030 relative to the base case and reduce poverty by an additional 51 million people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adequate flow of appropriate information to farmers is vital for accelerating the uptake of modern agricultural technologies and improving access to markets, all of which are important for the transformation of African economies. Yet there is limited evidence regarding how information should be disseminated to farmers to achieve the needed impact. Should ICT‐based approaches be used together with traditional methods, or should they be used alone? We used cluster quasi‐random and randomized experiments involving 140 villages in southern Mali to study three chains of causality: does farmer training increase knowledge? Does knowledge lead to change in behavior? Do the different actions generate varying economic outcomes? We show that the role of farmer training in the uptake of extension advice may be overstated in some settings; that procrastination and inattention are more binding constraints to recommendation adherence than information per se; and that such constraints could be mitigated by timely voice SMS reminders. Although timely reminders nudged farmers to take‐up recommendations, leading to meaningful improvements in some intermediate outcomes, these impacts were not large enough to generate improvements in output, prices and profits in the short term. These findings must be interpreted within the context of imperfect compliance with experimental protocols, which pose threats to both the internal and external validity of some of the impact estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate georeferenced household‐level data consisting of up to 128,609 individuals living in 11,261 localities across 17 coastal sub‐Saharan African countries over 20 years. We analyze the relevance of coastal proximity, measured by the geographic distance to harbors, as a predictor of individual economic living standards. Our setting allows us to account for country‐time fixed effects as well as individual‐specific controls. Results reveal that individuals living further away from the coast are significantly poorer, measured along an array of welfare indicators. Our findings are robust to the inclusion of other geographic covariates of development such as climate (e.g., temperature, precipitation) or terrain conditions (e.g., ruggedness, land suitability). We also explore mechanisms through which coastal proximity may matter for individual welfare and decompose the estimated effect of coastal proximity via formal mediation analysis. Our results highlight the role of human capital, urbanization, and infrastructural endowments in explaining within‐country differences in individual economic welfare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main objective of this study is to analyze the effect of political instability on youths unemployment in sub‐Saharan Africa. Particular interest is devoted to the channels through which political instability affects youths unemployment. The empirical analysis covers a sample of 23 countries for the period 2000–2016. To better characterize the labor market framework in sub‐Saharan Africa, the empirical analysis incorporates the impact of political instability on youths underemployment and labor underutilization. Using panel data techniques, the results show that political instability increases youths unemployment, underemployment, and labor underutilization in sub‐Saharan Africa. The main transmission channels identified are foreign direct investment, domestic investment, gross domestic product, government spending, human capital, and labor market flexibility. The findings confirm the investigated hypothesis. As the main policy implication, policymakers in sub‐Saharan Africa should resolve political instability as a priority toward addressing youths unemployment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Input subsidy programs (ISPs) are an important part of agricultural development strategy in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA). Yet impact assessments of ISPs in SSA have been dominated by Malawi and Zambia programs. This article adds to the growing literature by estimating the impact of the Integrated Support Program for Arable Agriculture Development (ISPAAD) on crop production in Botswana's subsistence economy, using panel data for five agricultural regions and the period of 1978/1979 to 2013/2014. The article also assesses program benefits (relative to public costs) and sustainability. Results show that the program has induced increases of 78%, 87%, 40%, 168%, and 46% in total acreage, cereal acreage, non‐cereal acreage, cereal output, and cereal yields, respectively. However, the value of crops produced was equivalent to only 51% of public expenditure on land cultivation and seasonal inputs. Moreover, the ratio of the value of incremental cereals produced to program expenditure on cereals was estimated at 26%. Therefore, ISPAAD's positive impacts on crop production cannot be sustained beyond the program implementation period. Some farmers would exit if they were to directly bear the costs of land preparation, let alone seasonal inputs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the effect of HIV/AIDS on output using an overlapping generations model with heterogeneous agents calibrated to sub-Saharan Africa. Output is found to be below a no-AIDS output in a range between 3% (10%), when only unskilled workers are affected, and 10% (28%), when only skilled workers are affected, whenever the overall infection rate is 7% (20%). When investigating the hypothesis that AIDS affects skilled workers more severely than unskilled at the beginning of the epidemic, with the effect switching as the epidemic becomes more mature, the findings are that the economy can be 8% smaller along the transition path. In all scenarios where the epidemic is temporary, it would take four to five generations or about 90 years for sub-Saharan Africa to recover. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many countries in sub–Saharan Africa discriminated against agriculture to promote industry after independence. The domestic terms of trade were turned against agriculture by the price fixing of monopoly marketing boards. This policy was assumed to reduce labor costs of industry and was combined with overvaluation of the currency, protectionism, and priority rationing of imported inputs to industry. The region got the worst of both worlds—stagnation in both agriculture and industry. What went wrong? In a dual model designed to represent characteristics of the region, discrimination of agriculture is shown to contract industry through trade linkages. Export–oriented agriculture has been held back, and import–dependent industries have suffered because of the foreign exchange constraint. In a dynamic extension assuming learning–by–doing in industry and catching–up in agriculture, it is shown that discrimination against agriculture may reduce the growth rate of the economy and the technological advantage of industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores the effects of international remittances on the expenditure patterns of households in Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA). This article focuses on five countries in SSA, which are some of the destinations that account for the highest receipt of international remittances. We analyze both aggregate and distributional effects of international remittances on expenditure patterns of households. To investigate the distributional effect of international remittances, we adopt the instrumental variable quantile (IV‐quantile) regression framework that allows us to simultaneously address the endogeneity of international remittances and possible heterogeneity in the impact of international remittances on households' expenditure patterns. We instrument for international remittances by using the economic conditions in migrants' countries as an instrument for international remittances. Our results show that the receipt of international remittances increases expenditures on food, durables, education, and health. Using the IV‐quantile regression, we find the effects of international remittances on household expenditure on food, durables, education, and health increase across the different expenditure quantiles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Smallholder farmers in Sub‐Saharan Africa often mitigate production risks through cooperative membership: institutionalized arrangements where they pool resources and collectively manage production and marketing chains. Cooperative membership has a significant advantage: it cushions detrimental effects of external forces, placing a premium on a risk‐seeking attitude (experimenting and innovating), which can yield greater accumulation. However, cooperatives are self‐selective institutions: relatively better‐endowed farmers, who are usually less risk‐avoidant than poorer ones (a consequence of their broader material bases), tend to be overrepresented. These two realities complicate the causal assessment of the relationships between risk attitudes, farmers' socioeconomic status, and cooperative membership that is essential to comprehend the role of cooperatives in local capital accumulation. To help resolve this thorny analytical problem, an experimental study was carried out in eastern Ethiopia—a risky production environment where cooperatives feature prominently and relatively affluent farmers exist alongside poorer ones. It unveils the working of specific path dependences: poorer cooperative members are less risk seeking than nonmembers, but at an interval much less than that observed for affluent farmers. For development policies, this suggests that a greater payoff can be expected from investing in farmers' material bases than from further improving cooperative membership. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Are poor macroeconomic outcomes primarily the result of economic policies, or of deeper underlying state fragility problems in sub‐Saharan Africa? We attempt to answer this question by using carefully specified dynamic panel regression techniques to show how state fragility conditions help to explain the differences in the macroeconomic performance of sub‐Saharan African economies, and to identify the most plausible mechanisms of transmission. We find that countries with greater fragility suffer higher macroeconomic volatility and crisis; they also experience weaker growth. When we disaggregate state fragility into its various components, we find that it is the security and social components that have the strongest causal impact on macroeconomic outcomes, while the political component is, at best, weak. Therefore, we conclude that it is state fragility conditions, and not necessarily macroeconomic policies, that are of first‐order importance in explaining the differences in macroeconomic performance for African countries. The knock‐on effects are mostly mediated through the fiscal channel, the aid channel, and the finance channel. Accordingly, we recommend that interventions in fragile states should best focus on exploiting the potential for using fiscal policy, aid, and finance as instruments to improve macroeconomic outcomes in sub‐Saharan Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]