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This paper proposes an analytical framework for growth and development, and based on this methodological framework, this paper reveals why the United States has become powerful and predicts its probable decline. Different from the past views, this paper argues that the advantage integration–oriented production model and the proactive open strategy and policy orientation based on it are the core driving forces for growth and development. Driven by both capital and technology, the economic structure and social fabric of the United States has been undergoing tremendous changes for more than 200 years, so the members, the power, and the appeals of different interest groups are also changing. At the microlevel, the production model adapted to the economic structure and social fabric of the United States is changing, and correspondingly, at the macrolevel, the strategy and policy orientation of the United States are changing as well. This paper details the advantage integration–oriented development practices in U.S. history and briefly discusses the prospects of the practical application of this methodology. The United States is a typical country that achieved catch‐up through advantage integration and ultimately gained global economic dominance, and this implies that the strategy and policy based on this model of development are necessarily open and positive. However, the current growing conservative policy orientation in the United States may not be a good sign. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper constructs and tests a model that incorporates relative deprivation into the migration decision. Relatively deprived individuals view their situations as less than a community standard. Another innovation of this paper is the utilization of a cluster approach to wage differentials. This cluster method takes account of individual characteristics while avoiding the severe multicollinearity problems inherent in the standard wage equation approach. Using data from the Mexican Migration Project, relative deprivation is found to be a significant motivating factor in domestic migration decisions. The results also suggest that Mexico-US migration may be increasing relative deprivation in Mexican communities. For policymakers, the results indicate that policies attempting to slow domestic rural-to-urban migration must address both relative and absolute outcomes in communities. Investments in communities that raise aggregate incomes, but increase relative deprivation, could result in an increase in migration out of the community, not in a decrease as intended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Before 2007/08, the European Monetary Union (EMU) was expected to be enlarged on schedule, but the European sovereign debt problem, triggered by the exogenous US sub-prime crisis, not only has revealed the EMU's fiscal coordination failure, but also has weakened regional financial integration. The stagnation of financial integration will therefore increase the cost of sustaining a monetary union, which in turn slows EMU enlargement and ruins the reputation of the euro. This paper aims to measure the damage to financial integration and to provide a more precise answer on real interest rate parity (RIP) convergence. Our estimation indicates that RIP between the EMU and some accession candidates is still valid after the interruptions of the financial crises. However, convergence of real interest rates cannot be achieved until 2030. This implies the EMU authority must strengthen regional financial integration to solidify the EMU and then be able to re-start enlargement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the patterns of government expenditure stimuli among Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development ( OECD) countries during the Great Recession (2007-2009). Overall, we find that the USA net fiscal stimulus was modest relative to peers, despite it being the epicenter of the crisis, and having access to relatively cheap funding of its twin deficits. Of the 28 countries in the sample, the USA is ranked among the bottom third in terms of the rate of expansion of consolidated government consumption and investment expenditures. Contrary to historical experience, emerging markets had strongly countercyclical policy during the period immediately preceding the Great Recession and the Great Recession itself. Federal unions, emerging markets and countries with very high gross domestic product ( GDP) growth during the pre-recession period saw larger net fiscal stimulus on average than their counterparts. We also find that greater net fiscal stimulus was associated with lower flow costs of general government debt in the same or subsequent period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The strong economic ties between the Gulf Cooperation Council ( GCC) economies and the USA are manifested in three ways: currency peg, coupling of monetary policy, and the adoption of the US dollar as the trading currency for oil. This paper examines how these dynamics result in a misalignment of the US monetary policy with the business cycles of the GCC economies. The study shows how the staggering amount of remittances outflow of the GCC economies plays a stabilizing role as a tacit monetary policy tool. Incorporating remittances in the money-demand equation results in a more robust model than otherwise. We further find that the effect of the Federal Funds rate on money demand in these countries diminishes in significance during the period of oil boom between 2002 and 2009. However, the transmission effect of the recession periods in the USA into the demand for money in the GCC countries is not statistically significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper provides a simple comparative analysis of Japanese and US trade with China. In recent years, Japanese exports to China had been growing faster than US exports, but Japanese imports from China had been growing more slowly. A large amount of US and Japanese exports were first shipped to Hong Kong, and then re-exported to China. In 1994, Japan's largest export item to China was general machinery, while US largest export item to China was transportation equipment. According to the rivalry index constructed in the paper, competition in 1994 between US and Japanese firms was most intense in the chemical goods sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, I present a theoretical framework designed to explain People's Republic of China ( PRC) outward foeign direct investment in the USA and Europe, in search of research and development ( R& D) acquisition modeled as positive 'spillover effects' in a two-country model with firms distinguished by their ability to innovate. The motivation for this paper is the growing PRC merger and acquisition activity in Europe and the USA. The fact that the PRC, despite its many successful internal reforms, cannot induce innovation activity designed to alter its external sector from one that is based on cheap labor to one that is based on innovation-rich products, has forced it to use its extensive reserve holdings to acquire the necessary R& D via merger and acquisition. These acquisitions will allow the PRC to alter their domestic and export product mix and thus avoid the middle-income trap. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Factor prices adjust to product prices in the Stolper- Samuelson theorem of the factor proportions model. The present paper estimates adjustment in the average US wage to changes in prices of manufactures and services with yearly data from 1949 to 2006. Difference equation analysis is based directly on the comparative static factor proportions model. Factors of production are fixed capital assets and the labor force. Results have implications for theory and policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the role of US domestic politics in aid allocation using panel data on 119 countries from 1960 to 1997. Employing proxies for four allocation criteria (development concerns, strategic importance, commercial importance, and democratization), we find evidence that each has influence, although the evidence is stronger for some criteria (development, commercial) than for others (strategic, democratization). Their influence depends on the composition of the US government. When the president and Congress are liberal, development concerns receive more weight than when the president and/or Congress are more conservative. When the Congress is more conservative, commercial concerns have more weight than when the Congress is liberal. These findings are important in light of current attempts to overhaul the allocation of aid. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to provide some empirical evidence about black-white differentials in the distribution of income and wellbeing in three different countries: Brazil, the USA and South Africa. In all cases, people of African descent are in a variety of ways socially disadvantaged compared with the relatively more affluent whites. We investigate the extent of these gaps in comparative perspective, and analyze to what degree they are associated with differences in the observed characteristics of races, such as where they live, the types of household they have, or their performance in the labor market. We undertake this analysis with the Oaxaca- Blinder decomposition at the means and with a propensity score approach at the entire distribution. Our results show how the factors underlying the racial divide vary across countries and income quantiles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper measures the impact of increasing trade openness between Mexico and the USA resulting from the North American Free Trade Agreement ( NAFTA) on the income of small versus large farmers in Mexico. Benefits resulting from higher prices of export goods as well as losses incurred from greater import competition are considered. First, relating NAFTA cuts in trade restrictions to border prices of Mexican exports and imports, it is found that NAFTA-induced tariff reductions decreased the border price of corn, Mexico's main agricultural import, and increased the border prices of tomatoes and melons, Mexico's main agricultural exports. Then, it is shown that the rise in fruit and vegetable prices benefited small farmers more than large farmers; while the drop in corn prices hurt large farmers more. Finally, the results from the regional-level analysis suggests that the effects are stronger in the central states than in the northern and southern states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A number of papers have investigated the increasing macroeconomic ties between Mexico and the USA. These studies have relied on linear models, however, making their results suspect. Other papers have investigated nonlinearity over the Mexican business cycle, but have not studied the links between the Mexican and US economies. In this paper a Markov-switching model is employed to investigate the changing macroeconomic effect of the USA on Mexico. The findings show that the USA indeed appears to have a much larger impact since the passage of the North Atlantic Free Trade Association (NAFTA) than in previous years. Results also indicate that the level of foreign exchange reserves has much less predictive power for the Mexican economy since NAFTA. This suggests that the greater synchronization with the US business cycle may be more attributable to better macroeconomic management in Mexico than to the closer trade links. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we present a model of the current account. The model has two variants, one in which assets are perfectly substitutable in investors' portfolios, and another in which they are not. We examine the responses of these two variants of the model to standard shocks, and show that under imperfect substitutability, a valuation effect comes into play. We focus on the external accounts, and examine the role and strength of these valuation effects. Additionally, the imperfect substitutability case allows us to examine the model's response to an exogenous change in investors's portfolio preferences. The model in this paper provides a framework for understanding the experience of the dollar's real value and of the US current account over the last decade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What is the relationship between trade and economic growth? Does trade positively affect economic growth? Owing to the ambiguity of this relationship, the empirical relationship has remained open ( Rodriguez and Rodrik, 2001 ; Baldwin, 2003 ). This paper introduces “trade structure” variables, borrowed from the paper of Lederman and Maloney (2003 ), and applies them to the relationship. A dynamic panel estimation for the data of 66 countries during 1991–2004 is used to verify the validity and robustness of the relationship. Trade structure variables show strong evidence of positive effects on growth. Free-trade agreements/areas (FTAs) also enhance economic growth. East Asia shows a different relationship between trade and growth than the world and reflects a weaker role of FTAs in its growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the claim that China's exchange rate policy causes the US trade deficit with China to grow. Although there is no evidence that changes in the exchange rate cause the trade deficit to rise in the short run, a statistically significant long-run relationship between the RMB/dollar exchange rate and the US trade deficit with China is detected. As the value of the dollar declines (or RMB appreciates), ceteris paribus, so does the trade deficit. Hence, there is a need for China to adjust its exchange rate policy to help reduce the ever mounting US trade deficit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a model to test whether World Bank lending caters to US interests. We use country-level panel data to examine the geographic distribution of World Bank lending to 110 countries from 1968 to 2002. After controlling for country characteristics expected to influence the distribution of lending in a manner consistent with the World Bank's charter and stated allocation mechanisms, we introduce variables reflecting US interests. The empirical results are consistent with a significant US influence, but one which varies across presidential administrations. These findings have important implications because donor influence may reduce the credibility, and hence the development effectiveness, of multilateral aid organizations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variations of bilateral aid flows are difficult to explain on the basis of official development objectives or recipient need. Based on the example of US aid to Pakistan, this paper suggests alternative political economic explanations, notably the relevance of ethnic lobbying and the relevance of US business interests. Time series regressions for the period from 1980 to 2002 and logistic regressions based on votes for the Pressler and the Brown Amendment confirm the significance of these political economic determinants. While in case of the Pressler Amendment, the direct influence of population groups of Indian and Pakistani origins seems to have played a predominant role, the role of ethnic business lobbies appears to have dominated in the context of the Brown Amendment. Time series analysis also provides some evidence for the impact of US business interests based on FDI and exports, but these effects appear to be comparatively small. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper explains most, if not all, observations made by the empirical literature regarding the behavior of skilled and unskilled real wages in the United States, especially those since 1980. Generalizing the Stopler–Samuelson theorem, the authors show that the nontraded sector is critical to explaining the effects of changes in the price of traded goods on relative and absolute wages. Factor-intensities play their role as in the traditional Stolper–Samuelson model, but the output of the nontraded sector matters as well. Specifically, freer trade benefits capital and hurts both the skilled and unskilled labor if the import as well as the nontraded sectors contract. This is a new result to the literature on Stolper–Samuelson issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the effect of exchange rates on US foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to a sample of 16 emerging market countries using annual panel data for the period 1990–2002. Three separate exchange rate effects are considered: the value of the local currency (a cheaper currency attracts FDI); expected changes in the exchange rate (expected devaluation implies FDI is postponed); and exchange rate volatility (discourages FDI). The results reveal a negative relationship between FDI and more expensive local currency, the expectation of local currency depreciation, and volatile exchange rates. Stable exchange rate management can be important in attracting FDI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using data collected by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), this study attempts to measure the intensity of vertically integrated multinational enterprises (VMNEs) for US foreign direct investment (FDI). By comparing the primary industry of US parents and their foreign affiliates, it is found that a significant proportion of VMNEs exists for US FDI abroad, which range over 14 manufacturing and three nonmanufacturing industries. The intensity of VMNEs is found to be negatively related with the host countries’ labor cost. Meanwhile, a critical amount of VMNEs arise to take advantage of proximity to customers through FDI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2002, US net exports of advanced technology products (ATPs) registered a deficit of US$16.6 billion for the first time. By 2006, the ATP trade deficit reached US$43.7 billion. This is primarily due to China's increasing importance as an ATP import source and does not indicate a wholesale loss of US competitiveness in ATPs. Mostly, China's market share gain came at the expense of other Asian countries. This geographical shift in China's favor is due to her greater integration with Asian supply chains. Trade gravity regressions show that the USA exports more advanced technology parts and accessories to lower income countries but advanced technology capital and consumer goods imports by the USA are not correlated with the income of the import source countries. Thus, there is weak evidence that labor cost savings via foreign assembly operations dominate US ATP trade with middle and low income countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is widely held that foreign direct investment (FDI) has a positive effect on economic growth. To test this hypothesis, we perform convergence regressions derived from a theoretical model on the impact of FDI on endogenous technological change in small economies. The model includes FDI externalities that enhance growth, but also shows that FDI can crowd out host country income and reduce local innovation. The empirical analysis employs disaggregated US data for various FDI-related activities—in addition to the conventionally used aggregate FDI stocks and flows. We estimate the net FDI impact on the convergence rate of per-capita income to US levels, controlling for human development, financial development, and trade. We find that FDI accelerates convergence for high-income countries only, otherwise slowing it down. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most Latin American economies ended the twentieth century further behind the United States (in terms of productivity) than they had been in 1950. We investigate whether this reflects the effect of occasional economic setbacks or a systematic tendency to fall behind the United States. This is done using a time-series approach that allows for up to two structural breaks in a series. We find evidence that relative productivity is a (broken) trend-stationary process for most of the 18 countries considered but that only one, Chile, shows evidence of catching up with the United States at the century’s close. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]