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Seed sourcing decisions affect short‐ and long‐term restoration outcomes. Seeds sourced closer to restoration sites are likely to be better adapted to local conditions and therefore may perform better than those sourced farther away, following assumptions of local adaptation. However, plants may not be adapted to future conditions under climate change; hence, managers are considering a predictive provenancing approach, where plant materials adapted to predicted conditions are used at a site. Currently, there is little empirical evidence available to inform this approach. To address this, we evaluate predictive provenancing using three species of forbs used in tallgrass prairie restorations (Allium cernuum, Chamaecrista fasciculata, and Rudbeckia hirta) in a common garden experiment in northeastern Illinois, U.S.A. We compared the fitness in plants sourced from three regional zones across a latitudinal gradient that represents different climate projections, relative to the planting site. Data were analyzed using Aster life‐history models and generalized linear models. We found that source affected overall fitness in all three species, but no climate proxy had the highest fitness across all species. The performance at each life stage had different effects on overall fitness, which varied by source. We observed later reproductive phenology in southern‐sourced plants for all three species, possibly due to adaptation to longer growing seasons. The mixed results of this study suggest that climate proxy alone would not be sufficient to determine an effective and accurate predictive provenancing strategy. Long‐term tests are needed to pursue such a strategy for high‐priority species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

If sufficient seedling establishment can be achieved, seed‐based restoration provides an affordable, active restoration approach that can be implemented quickly at scale. However, establishment has served as a major restoration bottleneck, highlighting the need for improved understanding of seed germination niche and interactions with site conditions. Germination niche breadth (NB) is expected to increase with gene flow, resulting in broader environmental tolerance range, reduced sensitivity to site conditions, and less variation among seed sources. To investigate how germination NB relates to inter‐ and intraspecific variation in establishment from seed, we compared field recruitment for two milkweeds (Asclepias), the larval host plant of the monarch butterfly and thus a high priority group for habitat creation. Consistent with species‐level NB derived from laboratory trials, there was strong evidence that early life stages of the habitat specialist (Asclepias incarnata) varied among seed collection regions (separated by 423–572 km) but no evidence that the generalist (A. syriaca) varied among seed sources collected across an approximately 750‐km transect. Regeneration trends demonstrate that A. incarnata is significantly more sensitive to seed source and therefore requires more restricted seed zones. However, climate change may necessitate that we separate seed collection zones from seed application zones, upending the traditional framework of seed transfer zones. Until taxon‐specific studies have identified the scale of adaptive, phenotypic variance, restoration practitioners should continue to adjust the scale of seed collection zones for milkweeds and other taxa based on species traits known to influence gene flow, such as abundance and habitat specificity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The restoration of oak woodlands often requires removal and management of woody invasive plants. This can trigger germination of the soil seed bank, which can alter restoration trajectories. In degraded deciduous woodlands generally, it is unclear whether the soil seed bank will contribute native plant material in sufficient quantities to help achieve restoration goals and allow practitioners to rely on passive restoration without supplemental seeding. To support restoration decision‐making around passive or active restoration in three Rhamnus cathartica‐invaded forest preserves in the Chicago region, we asked: (1) Does the soil seed bank differ from standing aboveground vegetation at reference and unrestored sites? and (2) Can the species richness, Shannon diversity, floristic quality (measured by abundance‐weighted mean coefficients of conservatism), or density of germinable seeds of native species in the soil seed bank be predicted by a site's restoration status (reference or unrestored)? We found that species composition differed significantly between aboveground vegetation and the soil seed bank at reference and unrestored sites, with a significant interaction between restoration status and location. Despite high variation among the three forest preserves, restoration status also predicted native species richness, diversity, floristic quality, and seed density in the soil seed bank, with unrestored sites significantly lower than reference sites in all measures. Results suggest that reintroduction of native seeds will be necessary to fully restore desired native plant communities in oak woodlands following the removal of invasive woody plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large‐scale ecological restoration efforts increasingly require large quantities of genetically diverse seeds adapted to a range of potential sites. To meet this demand, there is a growing emphasis on mixing multiple, regionally sourced source populations in production settings to produce large quantities of genetically diverse seeds. However, because few empirical studies are available, it is unclear how source population representation and genetic diversity shift through production and restoration use of mixed‐source seed lots. We used neutral genetic markers and assays of variation in seed germination requirements to investigate how genetic diversity and source population representation shift following the use of a mixed‐source seed lot to establish a seed production field and 10 restoration sites. Our mixed‐source seed lot contained 19 source populations of the perennial forb, Penstemon pachyphyllus, from six mountain ranges in the Great Basin, U.S.A. We found that, while populations from all six mountain ranges used in the mixed‐source seed lot were present in production and restoration sites, representation of each source mountain range shifted unpredictably. Populations from one mountain range were particularly overrepresented at the production site relative to its composition in the original seed mix. We also found that, despite using the same mixed‐source seed lot for production and restoration sites, resulting source population composition varied greatly, suggesting that local conditions favored some populations over others. Significant among‐population variation in seed germination requirements may, in part, explain shifts in source population representation in the production and restoration sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a clear need to maximize the genetic diversity of plant material used in restorations to ensure restored populations are equipped to handle current and future conditions. This increasingly translates to focused efforts to intentionally increase the genetic diversity of seed sources in production and/or restoration settings. For example, multiple populations may be brought together to create plant materials with more genetic diversity than is present in any single population. Recent literature showing minimal risk of outbreeding depression and extensive benefits of genetic rescue has helped justify this approach, with the exception of mixing populations with fixed chromosomal differences. In these cases, extensive loss of fertility may occur after mixing. Some types of incompatible chromosomal differences are difficult to detect and therefore have unknown occurrence and distribution within and among species. However, the most extreme form of chromosomal differences—intraspecific ploidy variation (IPV)—is relatively easy to quantify with current technology and known to be fairly common in angiosperms. To encourage more systematic consideration of IPV in native plant restoration, we used available data on IPV to estimate its incidence in 115 species widely used for restoration in the United States. Over one‐third have IPV. Additional focused research is needed to understand the consequences of IPV for restoration, particularly given the current trend toward mixing natural collections for materials development and use. We provide recommendations to explicitly incorporate the reality of IPV into the production and use of genetically diverse plant materials for restoration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]