1. COPDCompEx: A novel composite endpoint for COPD exacerbations to enable faster clinical development
- Author
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Tariq Sethi, Stephen I. Rennard, Niklas Karlsson, Claus Vogelmeier, Carla A. Da Silva, Alexandra Jauhiainen, Anne L. Fuhlbrigge, Lieke E.J.M. Scheepers, Stefan Peterson, Nicholas Locantore, Malin Fagerås, Ruth Tal-Singer, and Thomas Bengtsson
- Subjects
Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine ,Male ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Time Factors ,Exacerbation ,Endpoint Determination ,Phases of clinical research ,Severity of Illness Index ,law.invention ,Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive ,Clinical Trials, Phase II as Topic ,Randomized controlled trial ,law ,Post-hoc analysis ,Medicine ,Humans ,Treatment effect ,Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic ,COPD ,business.industry ,medicine.disease ,Clinical trial ,Clinical Trials, Phase III as Topic ,Sample size determination ,Sample Size ,Emergency medicine ,Disease Progression ,Female ,business - Abstract
Background Frequency of moderate and severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations is an important endpoint in clinical trials, but makes them large and lengthy when powered to evaluate it. We aimed to develop a composite endpoint (COPDCompEx) that could predict treatment effect on exacerbations, enabling the design of shorter early phase clinical trials requiring fewer patients. Methods In this post hoc analysis, data from 20 randomized controlled trials were used to develop and test COPDCompEx. Diary events were tested against predefined threshold values for peak expiratory flow, reliever medication use, and symptoms. A COPDCompEx event was defined as first occurrence of a diary event, a moderate or severe exacerbation, or a study dropout. Ratios of event frequency, treatment effect and future trial sample size were compared between COPDCompEx and moderate and severe exacerbations. Findings At 3 months, the proportion of patients experiencing COPDCompEx events increased over 3-fold versus exacerbations alone. All components contributed to COPDCompEx event rate. Treatment effects at 3 months were closely matched between COPDCompEx and exacerbations, and the large net gain in power substantially reduced the required sample size. Interpretation COPDCompEx may be used to predict treatment effect on moderate and severe exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. This may enable the design of shorter Phase 2 clinical trials requiring fewer patients when compared with current exacerbation studies, with exacerbations as a key Phase 3 endpoint. This would, therefore, allow more efficient decision-making with reduced burden and risk to study participants.
- Published
- 2020