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Within the much broader framework of global interest, the dilemma concerning the real impact of mode of transport on the spread of COVID-19 has been a priority for transport stakeholders and policy-makers. How dangerous is it to move around a certain territory? Does the danger depend on the mode of transport? By considering a novel and detailed dataset at the level of local labour markets, we analysed the spatial association between the pre-pandemic propensity to use public transport and excess mortality in Italy attributable to the initial spread of COVID-19. We found that places characterised by larger commuting flows exhibit higher excess mortality during the first wave of the pandemic, but observed no significant spatial association between excess mortality and transit usage. Our results were obtained by considering a wide range of heterogeneity in the estimation of quantile regressions across a variety of specifications. Although we do not provide a definitive answer concerning the risk associated with transit use, our analysis suggests that mobility, not modal choice, should be considered a main driver of the initial contagion.

The aim of this paper is to identify the environmental impact induced by behavioral responses to terrorist attacks occurred in London on July 7th, 2005. By relying on the “dread hypothesis” and on the evidence of an increase in private transport subsequent attacks, we have estimated econometric models of pollution concentration. Our results point at a substantial environmental impact in terms of PM10 and NO2, possibly driven by an increase in the perception of higher safety of private transport with respect to public transit. Results are robust to several robustness checks, including nonlinear time trends and heterogeneity across types of monitoring stations.

Road pricing (the Ecopass) was introduced in Milan in January 2008 with the aim of reducing pollution. The existing literature has argued for a sizeable effect of the charge in reducing pollution in the short term, although long-term effects are less clear. This paper aims to propose a formal test of the impact of the Ecopass in the long term by using a novel methodology which combines regression discontinuity with propensity score matching. Results confirm the poor performance of the policy within 90 days to one year (depending on the pollutant) after introduction.