1. Machine learning methods for solar radiation forecasting: A review
- Author
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Gilles Notton, Christophe Paoli, Alexis Fouilloy, Marie Laure Nivet, Soteris A. Kalogirou, Cyril Voyant, Fabrice Motte, Sciences pour l'environnement (SPE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Pascal Paoli (UPP), Cyprus University of Technology, TILOS, Projet EnR, European Project: TILOS, and Université Pascal Paoli (UPP)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
- Subjects
Engineering ,020209 energy ,Decision tree ,Context (language use) ,02 engineering and technology ,Machine learning ,computer.software_genre ,Solar irradiance ,[SPI]Engineering Sciences [physics] ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,Support vector machines ,Artificial neural network ,Artificial neural networks ,Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment ,business.industry ,Mechanical Engineering ,Regression ,Random forest ,Support vector machine ,[INFO.INFO-IR]Computer Science [cs]/Information Retrieval [cs.IR] ,Engineering and Technology ,Gradient boosting ,Artificial intelligence ,Probabilistic forecasting ,Data mining ,business ,computer ,Solar radiation forecasting ,Solar radiation forecasting, Machine learning, Artificial neural networks, Support vector machines, Regression - Abstract
Forecasting the output power of solar systems is required for the good operation of the power grid or for the optimal management of the energy fluxes occurring into the solar system. Before forecasting the solar systems output, it is essential to focus the prediction on the solar irradiance. The global solar radiation forecasting can be performed by several methods; the two big categories are the cloud imagery combined with physical models, and the machine learning models. In this context, the objective of this paper is to give an overview of forecasting methods of solar irradiation using machine learning approaches. Although, a lot of papers describes methodologies like neural networks or support vector regression, it will be shown that other methods (regression tree, random forest, gradient boosting and many others) begin to be used in this context of prediction. The performance ranking of such methods is complicated due to the diversity of the data set, time step, forecasting horizon, set up and performance indicators. Overall, the error of prediction is quite equivalent. To improve the prediction performance some authors proposed the use of hybrid models or to use an ensemble forecast approach. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
- Published
- 2017
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