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The energy sector has a vital role in climate change mitigation. In Brazil, the electricity generation sector is strongly dependent on hydropower generation, but thermoelectricity contribution has increased leading to a more carbon-intensive electricity mix. This trend will be aggravated with the expected significant increase in the electricity demand until 2050 and with the potential limitation of hydropower generation expansion due to environmental constraints. The extent of the role of solar power to overcome these challenges in the future has been hidden by energy modelling assumptions. A review on how solar energy has been considered in different models, was performed. The research further assessed the relevance of assumptions by developing an optimization model to explore the cost-effectiveness of solar electricity large-scale deployment up to 2050. The work found that most published solar energy assessments based on long-term energy modelling for Brazil currently are not updated regarding several assumptions, leading to models results where solar appears with a marginal role. The energy modeling exercise shows solar PV is cost-effective for Brazil, providing more than 36% of total electricity in 2050. This is a different conclusion from the energy and power modeling exercises conducted until now, where solar deployment has been underestimated. • The work assesses how energy model inputs have affected solar cost-effectiveness for Brazil. • Assumptions on hydropower expansion and technology costs critically affect solar cost-effectiveness. • Energy model exercises have underestimated the potential of solar energy in Brazil. • Solar energy may have an important role in the future Brazilian power sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decarbonizing electricity generation through deployment of renewable technologies such as wind and solar is a key component of many climate change mitigation efforts. With increasing penetrations, the need to manage variability in renewable generation becomes critical. However, renewable variability is often poorly represented in energy planning studies which focus on energy and capacity adequacy. In this study, we used a hybrid capacity expansion and dispatch model with explicit inclusion of ramping and regulation services to examine balancing requirements in a decarbonizing electricity system. We find that ramping and regulation services needed for management of variable renewables alter the optimal mix of generation and transmission capacity relative to simpler planning models. In particular, we find enhanced value in expanding transmission capacity to access flexibility. • Representing short-term constraints in long-term energy models changes the outcome. • Flexibility is a key constraint in systems with high penetrations of renewables. • Interregional transmission can help provide system flexibility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whether an enormous untapped hydropower resource should be utilized domestically by heavily electrifying energy end-uses or should be exported to neighboring countries is often debated in Nepal. This study attempts to bring both policy options together and justifies with evidence the need to integrate end-use electrification and cross-border electricity trade policies in the energy transformation of Nepal. We found out that Nepal will continue to import electricity till 2027 to meet its electricity demand throughout the year though it has already started exporting its surplus electricity during the wet season because of the full availability of run-of-river type hydropower. The run-of-river will continue to dominate Nepal's least-cost generation mix with a two-thirds share resulting in considerable surplus electricity during the high-flow season. Such surplus will exceed one-third of its total energy generation capacity in long-run in all end-use electrification scenarios (low to high). Nepal can use its existing cross-border electricity trade mechanism to sell its surplus electricity and can generate revenue of 67 billion USD in the high electrification scenario, which, combined with savings from fossil fuel import savings, can provide 85 % of total electricity generation investment needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]