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Offshore wind auctions in Europe have recently seen considerable price decreases, with resulting support levels low enough to warrant the question whether project profitabilities are robust enough against changing market prices, or whether project suffer from low returns upon project realisation. This study investigates the development of profitability between auction date and Final Investment Decision, mainly through identifying impacts of changes in electricity prices, using stochastic discounted cash flow analysis. Some projects seem to have experienced adverse market developments. The study employs an explanatory-sequential approach to analyse two strategies to mitigate this risk: Pricing risks into the auction bid and absorbing losses through reduced returns or, alternatively, passing them down to contractors in the supply chain. The study finds indications that post-auction market developments have likely led to diminishing returns of developers, rather than increased price pressure on contractors. The study enhances the understanding of project profitabilities and developers' choices between auction and investment decision, and therewith opens the discussion on post-auction industry dynamics as an increasingly relevant factor to ensure that offshore wind can live up to its envisaged role in the decarbonisation of society. [Display omitted] • Detailed empirical approach to assessing economic viability of projects over time. • Implications of adverse market developments in major European offshore wind projects. • Some developers have experienced diminishing returns from market price changes. • Post-auction industry dynamics as increasingly relevant research field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investments in renewable energy resources have become inevitable due to increasing energy demand and energy prices, diminishing non-renewable energy resources, and the outgrowth of carbon footprints. Photovoltaic (PV) systems offer high solar energy potential in sustainable energy production whereas their high initial costs necessitate critical strategic valuation of investments. Valuation with conventional methods has been challenging due to existence of uncertainties such as fluctuating PV panel prices, changing meteorological conditions with certain effects on power generation, and governmental policies on energy market regulations. This study aims to propose a real options approach to valuation of residential rooftop PV system investments considering these uncertainties and demonstrate benefits of this approach with an application on the residential PV investment decisions in Turkey. The proposed method, Real Options Valuation (ROV) with Least-Squares Monte Carlo Simulation (LSMC) considers the deferral option of the investor by utilizing stochastic simulations, the discounted cash flow method, linear regression, and backward dynamic programming and thus evaluates the effects of uncertainties on financial attractiveness of residential PV investments. The case study findings proved that ROV with LSMC having a 7-years deferral option supported the investment decision with realizable cost-effective options while "NPV method" resulted in an infeasible investment. Scenario analysis was also conducted to explore policy options that can be used to promote solar energy investments in Turkey. This study has a potential to have practical contributions for investors as well as implications for policy-makers. [Display omitted] • Considering strategic value of flexibility for investment time with deferral option. • Handling uncertainties using stochastic simulations. • ROV method can prevent faulty rejection of investments with classical methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The transportation sector significantly contributes to global warming due to the extensive use of fossil fuels. Biofuels have the potential to eliminate inherent problems associated with the combustion of fossil fuels. However, large-scale deployment of biorefineries is limited because of high capital and operating costs as well as the low market value of biofuels that make such plants economically unfavorable. Additionally, using sustainable feedstock (algae, cyanobacteria, etc.), i.e., with no social, environmental, or technological challenges, is another major bottleneck for biorefineries. Considering these challenges, this study presents a strategy for the commercialization of macroalga-derived bioethanol via a circular economy-based integrated biorefinery concept. A standalone (conventional) process was designed for bioethanol production at 50.0 million gallons (189.3 million liters) per year capacity in Aspen Plus V12.2. Economic and environmental indicators were assessed through discounted cash flow and cradle-to-grave (SimaPro V9.4.0.7) analyses, respectively. Once the potential targets are identified, a novel integrated process was designed for biofuel and biochemical production, which is not only economically favorable in the current market but also has a better life cycle profile compared to that of a standalone process. The results showed that the integrated design has a minimum ethanol selling price of USD 0.35/L and a global warming potential of 0.35 kg CO 2 eq/L of ethanol, which is 45% and 82.7% lower than that of the standalone design. Sensitivity analysis showed that the Bio-SA selling price, total capital investment, and seaweed price are the most critical economic parameters for the economic feasibility of the process. • Novel design for the commercialization of macroalgal biorefinery is developed. • Techno-economic, uncertainty, and life cycle assessments are performed. • Integrated design achieved minimum ethanol selling price of USD 0.35/L. • Minimum environmental impact is calculated for the integrated design. • Process integrations are essential for the sustainability of macroalgal biorefinery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Among renewable sources giant reed has attracted a growing interest as energy crop especially in Southern Europe, thanks to its low agronomic input requirements. This paper aimed at evaluating the economic feasibility of introduction of giant reed plantation as energy crop in the Southern Italy. In particular, an economic and financial analysis was performed by comparing giant reed (both for woodchip and chopped forage production) with traditional crops (pluriannual and annual) that are currently cultivated in the same area, such as wine grape, melon and tomato. Results showed the highest profitability of giant reed respect to other crops with current market prices. In particular, giant reed destined to woodchip production denoted the highest annual gross margin with a value of 647.10 € ha −1 , followed by giant reed for silage production (617.04 € ha −1 ), wine grape (477.52 € ha −1 ), melon (310.00 € ha −1 ) and tomato (280.00 € ha −1 ). However, it should be considered that, as the cultivation of energy crops subtracts inevitably surface to the agricultural land, it would be desirable that the giant reed does not conflict with agri-food production, but valorizes marginal and/or unproductive areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This work investigates and compares energy-related, private business strategies, potentially interesting for investors willing to exploit either local biomass sources or strategic conventional fuels. Two distinct fuels and related power-production technologies are compared as a case study, in terms of economic efficiency: the biomass of cotton stalks and the natural gas. The carbon capture and storage option are also investigated for power plants based on both fuel types. The model used in this study investigates important economic aspects using a “real options” method instead of traditional Discounted Cash Flow techniques, as it might handle in a more effective way the problems arising from the stochastic nature of significant cash flow contributors’ evolution like electricity, fuel and CO2 allowance prices. The capital costs have also a functional relationship with time, thus providing an additional reason for implementing “real options” as well as the learning-curves technique. The methodology as well as the results presented in this work, may lead to interesting conclusions and affect potential private investment strategies and future decision making. This study indicates that both technologies lead to positive investment yields, with the natural gas being more profitable for the case study examined, while the carbon capture and storage does not seem to be cost efficient with the current CO2 allowance prices. Furthermore, low interest rates might encourage potential investors to wait before actualising their business plans while higher interest rates favor immediate investment decisions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The Canadian province of British Columbia has large forestry resources and therefore provides an informative example of the potential role of bioenergy in mitigating GHG emissions. Even in biomass-rich British Columbia, forestry resources are only sufficient to meet part of the energy demand. This paper compares different energy conversion routes for forestry waste materials: via hydrothermal liquefaction, thermochemical methanol and bioethanol, renewable natural gas, cogeneration of heat and power, heat-only boilers, and power-only generation. The GHG savings, health impacts, minimum selling prices, and GHG abatement costs for each option are estimated by combining life cycle assessment with a discounted cash flow model. The input-based functional unit of 1 oven-dry tonne biomass provides a better basis for comparing possible uses of finite biomass supply than the commonly-used output-based functional unit of 1 GJ bioenergy. Heat-only boiler for district heating gives the highest GHG reduction of 960 kgCO 2 -eq per oven-dry tonne feedstock, while power-only generation delivers minimal GHG benefit in British Columbia. Heat-only boiler and cogeneration offer the lowest GHG abatement costs (<$-20/tCO 2 -eq), due to lower costs and higher energy conversion efficiencies, and are already economically viable, but will not use all the available resources because health impacts generated by biomass combustion limit their deployment, despite life cycle health benefits for avoiding hazardous emissions from slash burning of forestry waste materials. Refined biofuel options are much less cost-effective (>$50/tCO 2 -eq); further technology improvement and policy support are needed to offset the cost disadvantage. • Comparison based on 1 ODT biomass identifies the most efficient way to utilize this scarce resource. • Producing energy from forestry waste materials can reduce emissions of GHGs and other pollutants. • Biomass-fired heat boiler gives maximum GHG mitigation per ODT feedstock. • Biomass-fired heat boiler and cogeneration are the most cost-effective in GHG mitigation. • Liquid biofuel options cause lower local health impacts but at higher GHG abatement costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]