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Fine fuel load (FFL) is a crucial variable influencing the occurrence of wildfire. Accurate knowledge of the distribution of FFL in mountainous forests is essential for ongoing wildfire risk management and the stability of mountain ecosystems. Traditional methods of estimating forest fuel load typically involve ground surveys combined with remote sensing, which can be costly and inefficient. Therefore, low-cost, large-scale FFL estimation remains challenging. In this study, Sentinel-2A satellite imagery from the Changsha forest region was used as the data source. Firstly, different feature variables were constructed based on false-color (B843), true-color (B432), four-band (B8432) combinations, and the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI). Subsequently, a machine learning approach based on random convolution was employed to estimate FFL. This study also included accuracy assessments of the estimation results and the creation of FFL maps for the study area. The results showed that the FFL estimation based on the B8432 band combination achieved the highest accuracy, with RMSE and R2 values of 5.847 t·hm−2 and 0.656, respectively. FFL estimation results based on false-color imagery followed, with true-color imagery and NDWI index-based estimation results exhibiting lower accuracy. This study offers critical FFL insights using random convolution techniques applied to Sentinel-2A imagery, enhancing the ability to monitor and manage forest fuel conditions effectively, thereby facilitating more informed regional wildfire risk management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research has shown that climate change creates warmer temperatures and drier conditions, leading to longer wildfire seasons and increased wildfire risks in the United States. These factors have, in turn, led to increases in the frequency, extent, and severity of wildfires in recent years. Given the danger posed by wildland fires to people, property, wildlife, and the environment, there is an urgent need to provide tools for effective wildfire management. Early detection of wildfires is essential to minimizing potentially catastrophic destruction. To that end, in this paper, we present our work on integrating multiple data sources into SmokeyNet, a deep learning model using spatiotemporal information to detect smoke from wildland fires. We present Multimodal SmokeyNet and SmokeyNet Ensemble for multimodal wildland fire smoke detection using satellite-based fire detections, weather sensor measurements, and optical camera images. An analysis is provided to compare these multimodal approaches to the baseline SmokeyNet in terms of accuracy metrics, as well as time-to-detect, which is important for the early detection of wildfires. Our results show that incorporating weather data in SmokeyNet improves performance numerically in terms of both F1 and time-to-detect over the baseline with a single data source. With a time-to-detect of only a few minutes, SmokeyNet can be used for automated early notification of wildfires, providing a useful tool in the fight against destructive wildfires. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The incidence of wildfires caused by tree contact with high-voltage power lines has become an increasingly pressing issue in the United States. To prevent such incidents, local safety councils have established minimum clearance regulations between trees and power lines. While most studies have focused on the tree encroachment around power lines during normal weather conditions, recent catastrophic fires have been caused by strong winds. To address this gap in knowledge, we investigated the critical wind speed that heightens the risk of wildfires by calculating the distance between trees and wires. To conduct this study, we used airborne LiDAR data collected from Sonoma County in northern California and analyzed the behavior of a sample tree having a height of 19.2 m under wind loads. Our analysis showed that the main factor determining tree deflection is the ratio of the tree height to the trunk diameter. We also found that, although the probability of fire ignition is typically low under normal conditions, it is likely to increase at a wind speed of approximately 40.3 m/s. In conclusion, this research demonstrates the utility of point cloud data in identifying potentially dangerous trees and reducing the risk of fires. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous wildfire risk assessments have problems such as subjectivity of weight allocation and the linearization of statistical models, resulting in generally low robustness and low generalization ability of fire risk assessment models. Therefore, in this paper, we explored the potential of integration machine learning algorithms to build wildfire risk assessment models. Based on analyzing fire data's spatial and temporal distribution, we selected 10 triggering factors of topography, meteorology, vegetation, and human activities, using frequency ratio (FR) to provide uniform data representation of triggering factors. Next, we used the Bayesian optimization (BO) algorithm to perform hyperparametric optimization solutions for various machine learning models: support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). Finally, we constructed an integration machine learning algorithm to acquire a fire risk grading map and the importance evaluation corresponding to each triggering factor. For validation purposes, we selected Liangshan Prefecture in Sichuan Province as the specific study area and obtained MCD64A1 burned area product to extract the extent of burned areas in Liangshan Prefecture from 2011 to 2020. The accuracy, kappa coefficient, and area under curve (AUC) were then applied to assess the predictive power and consistency of the fire risk classification maps. The experimental analysis showed that among the three models, FR-BO-XGBoost had the best performance in wildfire risk assessment in the Liangshan region (AUC = 0.887), followed by FR-BO-RF (AUC = 0.876) and FR-BO-SVM (AUC = 0.820). The feature importance result indicated that the study area's most significant effects on wildfires were precipitation, NDVI, land cover, and maximum temperature. The proposed method avoided the subjective weighting and model linearization problems. Compared with the previous methods, it automatically acquired the importance of the triggering factors to the wildfire, which had certain advantages in wildfire risk assessment, and was worthy of further promotion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) is an important index used to evaluate the wildfire risk and fire spread rate. In order to further improve the retrieval accuracy, two ensemble models combining deep learning models were proposed. One is a stacking ensemble model based on LSTM, TCN and LSTM-TCN models, and the other is an Adaboost ensemble model based on the LSTM-TCN model. Measured LFMC data, MODIS, Landsat-8, Sentinel-1 remote sensing data and auxiliary data such as canopy height and land cover of the forest-fire-prone areas in the Western United States, were selected for our study, and the retrieval results of different models with different groups of remote sensing data were compared. The results show that using multi-source data can integrate the advantages of different types of remote sensing data, resulting in higher accuracy of LFMC retrieval than that of single-source remote sensing data. The ensemble models can better extract the nonlinear relationship between LFMC and remote sensing data, and the stacking ensemble model with all the MODIS, Landsat-8 and Sentinel-1 remote sensing data achieved the best LFMC retrieval results, with R 2   = 0.85, RMSE = 18.88 and ubRMSE = 17.99. The proposed stacking ensemble model is more suitable for LFMC retrieval than the existing method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human encroachment into wildlands has resulted in a rapid increase in wildland–urban interface (WUI) expansion, exposing more buildings and population to wildfire risks. More frequent mapping of structures and WUIs at a finer spatial resolution is needed for WUI characterization and hazard assessment. However, most approaches rely on high-resolution commercial satellite data with a particular focus on urban areas. We developed a deep learning framework tailored for building footprint detection in the transitional wildland–urban areas. We leveraged meter scale aerial imageries publicly available from the National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) every 2 years. Our approach integrated Mobile-UNet and generative adversarial network. The deep learning models trained over three counties in California performed well in detecting building footprints across diverse landscapes, with an F1 score of 0.62, 0.67, and 0.75 in the interface WUI, intermix WUI, and rural regions, respectively. The bi-annual mapping captured both housing expansion and wildfire-caused building damages. The 30 m WUI maps generated from these finer footprints showed more granularity than the existing census tract-based maps and captured the transition of WUI dynamics well. More frequent updates of building footprint and improved WUI mapping will improve our understanding of WUI dynamics and provide guidance for adaptive strategies on community planning and wildfire hazard reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) is an input factor in fire behavior simulation models highly contributing to fire ignition and propagation. Developing models capable of accurately estimating spatio-temporal changes of LFMC in different forest species is needed for wildfire risk assessment. In this paper, an empirical model based on multivariate linear regression was constructed for the forest cover classified as shrublands in the central part of the Valencian region in the Eastern Mediterranean of Spain in the fire season. A sample of 15 non-monospecific shrubland sites was used to obtain a spatial representation of this type of forest cover in that area. A prediction model was created by combining spectral indices and meteorological variables. This study demonstrates that the Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI) extracted from Sentinel-2 images and meteorological variables (mean surface temperature and mean wind speed) are a promising combination to derive cost-effective LFMC estimation models. The relationships between LFMC and spectral indices for all sites improved after using an additive site-specific index based on satellite information, reaching a R2adj = 0.70, RMSE = 8.13%, and MAE = 6.33% when predicting the average of LFMC weighted by the canopy cover fraction of each species of all shrub species present in each sampling plot. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We bring a practical and comprehensive GIS-based framework to utilize freely available remotely sensed datasets to assess wildfire ignition probability and spreading capacities of vegetated landscapes. The study area consists of the country-level scale of the Romanian territory, characterized by a diversity of vegetated landscapes threatened by climate change. We utilize the Wildfire Ignition Probability/Wildfire Spreading Capacity Index (WIPI/WSCI). WIPI/WSCI models rely on a multi-criteria data mining procedure assessing the study area's social, environmental, geophysical, and fuel properties based on open access remotely sensed data. We utilized the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis to weigh each indexing criterion's impact factor and assess the model's overall sensitivity. Introducing ROC analysis at an earlier stage of the workflow elevated the final Area Under the Curve (AUC) of WIPI from 0.705 to 0.778 and WSCI from 0.586 to 0.802. The modeling results enable discussion on the vulnerability of protected areas and the exposure of man-made structures to wildfire risk. Our study shows that within the wildland–urban interface of Bucharest's metropolitan area, there is a remarkable building stock of healthcare, residential and educational functions, which are significantly exposed and vulnerable to wildfire spreading risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both fire risk assessment and management of wildfire prevention strategies require different sources of data to represent the complex geospatial interaction that exists between environmental variables in the most accurate way possible. In this sense, geospatial analysis tools and remote sensing data offer new opportunities for estimating fire risk and optimizing wildfire prevention planning. Herein, we presented a conceptual design of a server that contained most variables required for predicting fire behavior at a regional level. For that purpose, an innovative and elaborated fuel modelling process and parameterization of all needed environmental and climatic variables were implemented in order to enable to more precisely define fuel characteristics and potential fire behaviors under different meteorological scenarios. The server, open to be used by scientists and technicians, is expected to be the steppingstone for an integrated tool to support decision-making regarding prevention and management of forest fires in Catalonia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous research has demonstrated that remote sensing can provide spectral information related to vegetation moisture variations essential for estimating live fuel moisture content (LFMC), but accuracy and timeliness still present challenges to using this information operationally. Consequently, many regional administrations are investing important resources in field campaigns for LFMC monitoring, often focusing on indicator species to reduce sampling time and costs. This paper compares different remote sensing approaches to provide LFMC prediction of Cistus ladanifer, a fire-prone shrub species commonly found in Mediterranean areas and used by fire management services as an indicator species for wildfire risk assessment. Spectral indices (SI) were derived from satellite imagery of different spectral, spatial, and temporal resolution, including Sentinel-2 and two different reflectance products of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS); MCD43A4 and MOD09GA. The SI were used to calibrate empirical models for LFMC estimation using on ground field LFMC measurements from a monospecific shrubland area located in Madrid (Spain). The empirical models were fitted with different statistical methods: simple (LR) and multiple linear regression (MLR), non-linear regression (NLR), and general additive models with splines (GAMs). MCD43A4 images were also used to estimate LFMC from the inversion of radiative transfer models (RTM). Empirical model predictions and RTM simulations of LFMC were validated and compared using an independent sample of LFMC values observed in the field. Empirical models derived from MODIS products and Sentinel-2 data showed R2 between estimated and observed LFMC from 0.72 to 0.75 and mean absolute errors ranging from 11% to 13%. GAMs outperformed regression methods in model calibration, but NLR had better results in model validation. LFMC derived from RTM simulations had a weaker correlation with field data (R2 = 0.49) than the best empirical model fitted with MCD43A4 images (R2 = 0.75). R2 between observations and LFMC derived from RTM ranged from 0.56 to 0.85 when the validation was performed for each year independently. However, these values were still lower than the equivalent statistics using the empirical models (R2 from 0.65 to 0.94) and the mean absolute errors per year for RTM were still high (ranging from 25% to 38%) compared to the empirical model (ranging 7% to 15%). Our results showed that spectral information derived from Sentinel-2 and different MODIS products provide valuable information for LFMC estimation in C. ladanifer shrubland. However, both empirical and RTM approaches tended to overestimate the lowest LFMC values, and therefore further work is needed to improve predictions, especially below the critical LFMC threshold used by fire management services to indicate higher flammability (<80%). Although lower extreme LFMC values are still difficult to estimate, the proposed empirical models may be useful to identify when the critical threshold for high fire risk has been reached with reasonable accuracy. This study demonstrates that remote sensing data is a promising source of information to derive reliable and cost-effective LFMC estimation models that can be used in operational wildfire risk systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildfire activity has surged in North America's temperate grassland biome. Like many biomes, this system has undergone drastic land-use change over the last century; however, how various land-use types contribute to wildfire patterns in grassland systems is unclear. We determine if certain land-use types have a greater propensity for large wildfire in the U.S. Great Plains and how this changes given the percentage of land covered by a given land-use type. Almost 90% of the area burned in the Great Plains occurred in woody and grassland land-use types. Although grassland comprised the greatest area burned by large wildfires, woody vegetation burned disproportionately more than any other land-use type in the Great Plains. Wildfires were more likely to occur when woody vegetation composed greater than 20% of the landscape. Wildfires were unlikely to occur in croplands, pasture/hay fields, and developed areas. Although these patterns varied by region, wildfire was most likely to occur in woody vegetation and/or grassland in 13 of 14 ecoregions we assessed. Because woody vegetation is more conducive to extreme wildfire behaviour than other land-use types in the Great Plains, woody encroachment could pose a large risk for increasing wildfire exposure. Regional planning could leverage differential wildfire activity across land-uses to devise targeted approaches that decrease human exposure in a system prone to fire. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildfires are a concerning issue in Canada due to their immediate impact on people's lives, local economy, climate, and environment. Studies have shown that the number of wildfires and affected areas in Canada has increased during recent decades and is a result of a warming and drying climate. Therefore, identifying potential wildfire risk areas is increasingly an important aspect of wildfire management. The purpose of this study is to investigate if remotely sensed soil moisture products from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite can be used to identify potential wildfire risk areas for better wildfire management. We used the National Fire Database (NFDB) fire points and polygons to group the wildfires according to ecozone classifications, as well as to analyze the SMOS soil moisture data over the wildfire areas, between 2010–2017, across fourteen ecozones in Canada. Timeseries of 3-day, 5-day, and 7-day soil moisture anomalies prior to the onset of each wildfire occurrence were examined over the ecozones individually. Overall, the results suggest, despite the coarse-resolution, SMOS soil moisture products are potentially useful in identifying soil moisture anomalies where wildfire hot-spots may occur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]