Search

This paper analyses the determinants of poverty and vulnerability of smallholder farmers in the rural areas in the face of climate change. The data were collected through a cross-sectional survey conducted between December 2009 and January 2010 covering 240 households in six villages of Morogoro region, Tanzania. Descriptive and the econometric approaches involving three-stage least squares (3SLS) and generalized methods of moments (GMM) regressions were used to analyse poverty and vulnerability. Results indicate that income poverty was prevalent in the study area-based on a daily income per capita poverty line of US$ 1.25. The income poverty was relatively higher in agro-climatically less-favourable area than in favoured areas. Over three quarters of the sample households were vulnerable. The pattern of future vulnerability tended to overlap with poverty rates. Ageing of the household head tended to increase the level of vulnerability. Large-sized households were more income-poor than their counterpart small-sized households. Farming experience reduced the probability of future vulnerability. Increased farm size enhanced the level of income, and further increase in farm size reduced future vulnerability. Higher income contributed to wealth formation through improved access to assets and housing amenities. Farmers who perceived that climate change is human-induced tended to have significantly higher income than otherwise. The following conclusions with policy implications are drawn from the findings: (1) addressing poverty and vulnerability of farmers is critical particularly in relatively agro-ecologically less-favoured areas that are prone to climate change impacts, (2) old-age-related vulnerability must be addressed through dedicated policies and programmes, (3) increasing farm size would enhance smallholder farm income, (4) awareness creation among farmers on climate change drivers and processes by highlighting anthropogenic contribution is important in order to influence local adaptation and mitigation practices, and (5) improving rural income will advance wealth creation and foster local livelihood resilience to shocks including climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is altering mountainous headwaters and the biophysical and social systems that depend on them. While scientific knowledge on climate change abounds, literature syntheses are needed to understand the multidisciplinary impacts, identify critical knowledge gaps, and assess potential management and policy responses. In this study, we systematically map and analyze the topical and spatial distribution of climate change research in the mountainous headwaters of a major transboundary watershed, the Columbia River Basin (CRB). We find that climate change research in the CRB focuses on impacts much more frequently than adaptation, while mitigation is rarely a focus. Most studies assess trends at large spatial extents, use secondary data, and make projections of climate change impacts rather than observations. The spatial distribution and thematic content of research vary across an international border, with greater concentrations of research in the USA than Canada. A general scarcity of social science research and limited interaction between social and biophysical content reinforce the need for increased collaboration between disparate disciplines. Future research focus areas should include research related to climate change adaptation and mitigation, increased integration between social and biophysical sciences, and collaborations that bridge the international border for a more unified basin-wide focus. Focusing on these new directions for research will increase the potential for science and management communities to co-produce actionable science and effective responses to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An introduction is presented in which the editor discusses various reports within the issue including the evaluation of the climate of southeastern U.S., its dynamic downscaling, and its atmospheric reanalysis.

This paper discusses four challenges for mainstreaming climate change into European flood and drought risk management policies within the water and agriculture sectors: the climate change impact challenge; the robust policy challenge; the EU policy maze challenge; and the implementation challenge. We illustrate with examples from the Warta River Basin in Poland. The challenge of reliably estimating the impact of climate change on flood and drought risk at the local and regional scales has led to the pursuit of robust policy solutions. Robust policy solutions, as we demonstrate by comparing reservoirs and small ponds, can be equally intractable given the lack of information on their costs, benefits, and co-benefits, particularly if climate change is taken into account. The mainstreaming challenge is further complicated by the myriad of EU policies targeting flood and drought risks. While the European Commission is working towards a coherent policy picture, we demonstrate contradictions regarding reservoir and other water retention policies. Finally, mainstreaming climate change in flood and drought policy is further challenged by the web of responsible institutions at local, regional, and national scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper shows the importance of including region-specific circumstances in long-term climate change mitigation strategies, by example of a modeling exercise of the transport sector. Important emission reduction options in the transport sector include biofuels, electric vehicles and efficiency standards. The most effective combination of these options depends, among others, on the availability of biofuels, the effectiveness of efficiency standards, and the (expected) emission intensity of the power sector-all of which differ between regions. Differences in climate policies between regions influence these factors. For instance, fuel efficiency standards slowdown the long-term transition in regions where plugin hybrid electric cars compete with gasoline cars (such as the USA or Europe) by decreasing the costs for driving gasoline costs and therefore in fact increase long-term emissions. Another example is that promoting electric vehicles is less effective in regions which are expected to rely heavily on fossil fuels for power generation, such as South Africa, China and India. Based on these findings from the TIMER energy model, we introduce an indicative region-specific framework for assessing mitigation strategies for the transport sector up to 2050, for different ambition levels of climate policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Farmers' behavioural attitudes towards climate change are complex and poorly understood, making difficult the development of mitigation and adaptation policies that would be accepted and implemented. So far, the scientific literature has not clearly framed behavioural barriers related to the uptake of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Therefore behavioural barriers are frequently not considered in the modelling framework for climate change policy assessments. This paper presents a method that frames farmers' behavioural barriers and analyses their main determinants in order to incorporate behavioural constraints in the modelling frameworks. Three focus group discussions and a household survey were carried out in order to assess farmers' behavioural barriers taking into account the perspectives of both farmers and agricultural technical advisors. The analytical framework includes Principal Component Analysis to identify behavioural barriers and a binary Logit model to analyse the marginal effects of their main determinants. Farming experience, educational attainment and receiving climate information seem to be the key factors that determine the probability of displaying or not displaying most behavioural barriers. This work presents a method to model behavioural barriers in the context of the adoption of climate change adaptation and mitigation practices. Since a better understanding of behavioural barriers can help to enhance the support of mitigation and adaptation policies to farmers, this study could provide a valuable contribution to the deliberation of climate change policies in Kenya. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is one of the most important issues confronting the sustainable supply of seafood, with projections suggesting major effects on wild and farmed fisheries worldwide. While climate change has been a consideration for Australian fisheries and aquaculture management, emphasis in both research and adaptation effort has been at the production end of supply chains-impacts further along the chain have been overlooked to date. A holistic biophysical and socio-economic system view of seafood industries, as represented by end-to-end supply chains, may lead to an additional set of options in the face of climate change, thus maximizing opportunities for improved fishery profitability, while also reducing the potential for maladaptation. In this paper, we explore Australian seafood industry stakeholder perspectives on potential options for adaptation along seafood supply chains based on future potential scenarios. Stakeholders, representing wild capture and aquaculture industries, provided a range of actions targeting different stages of the supply chain. Overall, proposed strategies were predominantly related to the production end of the supply chain, suggesting that greater attention in developing adaptation options is needed at post-production stages. However, there are chain-wide adaptation strategies that can present win-win scenarios, where commercial objectives beyond adaptation can also be addressed alongside direct or indirect impacts of climate. Likewise, certain adaptation strategies in place at one stage of the chain may have varying implications on other stages of the chain. These findings represent an important step in understanding the role of supply chains in effective adaptation of fisheries and aquaculture industries to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate variability and change are directly challenging the viability and sustainability of social-ecological systems. This is particularly true for water resources. Effective water governance is at the heart of alleviating water challenges and is thus considered crucial for building adaptive capacity to cope with future uncertainty and impacts from climate change. Despite advances in the conceptualisation of adaptive capacity, there are few empirical examples that look systematically across cases to identify how to implement measures and actions that build and mobilise adaptive capacity. This paper contributes to the understanding of adaptive capacity to climate stress by analysing the bridges and barriers to adaptation across water governance and management regimes in the case of the Canton Valais, Switzerland and the state of Georgia, USA. We find that while there is no single way to build and mobilise adaptive capacity across different scales of governance, the analysis points to a set of common bridges and barriers for building adaptive capacity to a variety of climatic events. Common bridges include trust and actor relationships, regional collaboration, leadership, and regulatory and legislative aspects. Common barriers include political, regulatory and legislative, and perception and cognitive aspects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assess possible modifications in the hydrological behaviour of the Rhone River and its tributaries at Lyon (France). We identify changes during the late-twentieth century based on observations and characterise potential impacts of climatic changes on river response by the end of the century. Different scenarios of the latest generation of IPCC AR5 CMIP5 and hydrological modelling were used and included two scenarios for future outlet discharge of Lake Geneva (Switzerland). We show that discharges in the Rhone basin are likely to decrease significantly by the end of the century and that the seasonality of run-off will change substantially as well. In addition, projections point to smaller discharge during low flows, but higher low flows in its sub-basins. Regarding floods, high flows exhibit a general tendency to decrease, whereas potential upwards can be observed for the more extreme floods (less frequent). The approach reported in this paper will help to reflect on the governance modalities of a transboundary river such as the Rhone, especially when water management depends on concession contracts, which are usually granted for several decades and typically last between 60 and 90 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past decade, governments in many countries began to integrate or mainstream climate change adaptation into a range of sectors. Comprehensive multi-sectoral adaptation strategies have emerged as the preferred approach across Europe. The German Adaptation Strategy is a prominent example for such a comprehensive strategy. It addresses 14 sectors with national key issues and measures, and it provides orientation for other (mainly sub-national) actors. Against this trend, the Netherlands has pursued climate change adaptation mainly through a sectorally focused approach: the Dutch Delta Programme. Building on existing programmes,Governments in many it facilitates analysis and strategy development for long-term water management at a national scale with a strong regional focus. The present paper compares the two dissimilar governance approaches mainly with regard to how and to what degree they mainstream adaptation into water and coastal zone management in selected regions. After discussing strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches, we conclude that the more common multi-sectoral approach applied in Germany and most other OECD countries is not necessarily superior to sectorally focused approaches. Although the Dutch and the German cases appear to resemble alternatives, we highlight that their combination holds the promise to compensate for each other's weaknesses. Overall, we argue that diversity in the governance of climate change adaptation is desirable because it can help to prevent that several countries fail in similar ways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural resources play key roles as assets in the livelihoods of rural communities. However, the benefits of these assets in livelihoods are frequently conceived narrowly as income generating or vulnerability reducing. We contend that they have other important roles to play in poverty reduction and livelihood change. In this paper we use a case study of two ethnic communities in a village in southern India to investigate livelihood responses to change in forest biodiversity through an examination of changes in attributes of natural assets resulting from the invasion of Lantana camara and wider socio-economic change. The invasion of forest by Lantana has contributed to changes in the attributes and functions of four key natural assets: forest grazing, bamboo for basketry, Phoenix loureie for brooms, and wild yams. We observe that differences in households' and individuals' ability to substitute important functions of lost or declining assets affect their ability to adapt to changes in resource availability and attributes. Analysing changes in asset attributes for different user groups allows the social effects of environmental change to be disaggregated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we investigate the impact of climate change on coastal sediment transport in a deltaic system in the northern Adriatic Sea, with reference to the period 2070-2099 in the IPCC A1B emission scenario. Wind fields obtained by means of the high-resolution regional climate model Consortium for Small-scale Modelling-Climate Limited-area Modelling were employed for computing wave climate at basin scale by means of the spectral wave model Simulating Waves Nearshore. This was used as a constraint for a nearshore hydromorphodynamic model (MIKE LITPACK), which was applied to a test site on the Po River Delta, located in northern Italy. Relevant sediment transport processes have been studied at storm and decadal time scales in order to capture climate change effects on single events and as an overall trend. The transport rates in the A1B climate change scenario were then compared with the corresponding results of a control analysis (period 1965-1994) representing the actual climate. Although predicted wave climate in the investigated scenario displays an overall decrease in sea severity offshore in the northern Adriatic Sea, the effects of these modifications are modulated during the onshore propagation, with different impacts on sediment transport depending on the considered process and time scale. The strategy presented in this work can find fruitful applications in the long-term modelling of coastal and transitional environments, in which morphology is strongly influenced by sediment transport in the nearshore zone, suggesting a methodological approach for coastal planning and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transdisciplinary knowledge integration and cross-scale management remain challenges in coastal management after several decades of research and experience with integrated and sustainable coastal management. The aim of this paper is to identify requirements for knowledge integration and development of multi-scale approaches to coastal management through reviewing and re-analysing three Swedish-European research projects: the SUCOZOMA project about sustainable coastal zone management, the FRAP project about conflicts between coastal fishery and species protection, and the SECOA project about solutions to contrasts in coastal metropolitan areas. The strategy of adaptive governance is considered in the light of its ability to assess knowledge requirements for sustainable resource management under conditions of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An introduction is presented in which the editors discuss various reports within the issue on topics including the future climate change in the Mediterranean region and its impacts on agriculture, tourism and forest fires.

Scientific community and policy-makers share the common interest in identifying and evaluating potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems, relying mainly on probabilistic methods of exploring the risks. In this perspective, the concept of ensemble forecasting makes possible to handle uncertainties associated with climate risk analysis by focusing on a range of potential or probable impact scenarios rather than actualizing a single case. In this paper, an ensemble of simulations based on the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) model was used to investigate the uncertainty upon predictions of the future Euro-Mediterranean vegetation distribution, carbon dynamics, and water budget. Twenty simulations from past to future were based on the combination of different climate inputs, vegetation model parameterizations, and configurations. The evaluation of results combined the separate deterministic future projections from the LPJ model into a single probabilistic projection, associating a likelihood degree in accordance with the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change terminology. Results projected a general critical situation in terms of water availability, made more serious if considering that also the occurrence of extreme-related events, e.g., fires, is expected to become more frequent as favored by more recurrent drought episodes. Although more uncomfortable climate conditions were projected for vegetation, net primary production (NPP) was predicted to increase due to the potential enrichment of CO in atmosphere and its fertilization effects on vegetation. The combination of rising NPP and fire frequency may shape the carbon cycle components, as the carbon losses by fire also were projected to increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The academic literature on climate change communications is growing. However, the majority of this literature focuses on the issue of climate change mitigation in a developed country context, and there is little published material regarding communication in a developing country and adaptation context. Similarly, despite community-based approaches to climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction increasing in the Pacific Islands region, there is very limited guidance on how to effectively communicate climate change in a way that enhances people's resilience. This paper documents the experiences of organisations, including local and international non-government and faith-based organisations, governments, regional technical organisations and donor agencies in communicating climate change for adaptation in the Pacific region. Three key climate change communication challenges are highlighted and suggestions made for overcoming them based on results from interviews, a focus group discussion and an online forum. Finally, recommendations are made for good practice guidance in climate change communication that is empowering and culturally relevant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is a part of the normal climate variability and the life and livelihoods of the Western United States. However, drought can also be a high impact or extreme event in some cases, such as the exceptional 2002 drought that had deleterious impacts across the Western United States. Studies of long-term climate variability along with climate change projections indicate that the Western United States should expect much more severe and extended drought episodes than experienced over the last century when most modern water law and policies were developed, such as the 1922 Colorado River Compact. This paper will discuss research examining regional socio-natural climate vulnerability and adaptive response capacities to the 2002 drought in the Yampa-White Basins region of Colorado across sectors and will demonstrate how a bottom-up or 'toad's eye' approach to understanding drought is paramount to complement top-down, instrumental data-driven analyses of drought. The results of empirical observations through interviews and participant observation in combination with analysis of drought indicators will be presented. Implications for adaptation research and planning for climate variability and change will be discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we investigate how mountain communities perceive and adapt to climatic and environmental change. Primary data were collected at community and household level through in-depth interviews, focus group discussions, and quantitative questionnaires covering 210 households in six villages of the West Karakoram (Hundur and Darkut in the Yasin Valley; Hussainabad, Altit, Gulmit, and Shiskat in the Hunza valley of Gilgit-Baltistan). The relevance of the area with respect to our scopes is manifold. First, this is one of the most extreme and remote mountainous areas of the world, characterized by complex and fragile institutional and social fabrics. Second, this region is one of the focal points of research for the hydro-meteo-climatological scientific community, because of its relevance in terms of storage and variability of water resources for the whole Indus basin, and for the presence of conflicting signals of climate change with respect to the neighboring regions. Third, the extreme hardships due to a changing environment, as well as to the volatility of the social and economic conditions are putting great stress on the local population. As isolating climate change as a single driver is often not possible, community perceptions of change are analyzed in the livelihood context and confronted with multi-drivers scenarios affecting the lives of mountain people. We compare the collected perceptions with the available hydro-climatological data, trying to answer some key questions such as: how are communities perceiving, coping with, and adapting to climatic and environmental change? Which are the most resorted adaptation strategies? How is their perception of change influencing the decision to undertake certain adaptive measures? [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change poses serious challenges for populations whose livelihoods depend principally on natural resources. Given the increases in extreme weather events projected to adversely affect the arid and semi-arid regions of Iran, adaptation of the agricultural sector is imperative. Few studies have addressed the farmers' adaptation in Iran, and little is known about ongoing adaptation strategies in use. Adopting principal component analysis/fuzzy logic-based method, this paper considers the agricultural adaptation to climate variability. A survey of 255 farmers of Fars Province, selected through a multistage stratified random sampling method, revealed different levels of adaptation, specifically the low, moderate and high, which are principally distinguished by various degrees of sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The study also identified the main adaptation strategies used by farmers in response to climate-related shocks. Results indicated that although a large percentage of farmers make some adjustments to their farming practices, there are significant differences in choice of adaptation strategies by the adaptation categories. Some conclusions and recommendations are offered to increase the adaptive capacity of farmers and reduce negative impacts of climate variability and change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is generally acknowledged that adapting low-lying, flood-prone deltas to the projected impacts of climate change is of great importance. Deltas are densely populated and often subject to high risk. Climate-proof planning is, however, not only a new but also a highly complex task that poses problems for existing institutional and administrative structures, which are the product of times in which climate issues were of little importance. This paper assesses the capacity of the historically grown Dutch planning institutions to promote climate-proof planning for flood-prone areas. The Adaptive Capacity Wheel provides the methodological framework. The analysis focuses on two planning projects in the west of the Netherlands: the Zuidplas Polder project at the regional level and the Westergouwe project at the local level. It is shown that the planning institutions involved in these projects enable climate-proof planning, but to a limited extent. They face five institutional weaknesses that may cause risks on the long term. To climate-proof urban developments in flood-prone areas, it is necessary to break through the strong path-dependent development of planning institutions and to build in more flexibility in existing rules and procedures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change increases the vulnerability of low-lying coastal areas. Careful spatial planning can reduce this vulnerability, provided that decision-makers have insight into the costs and benefits of adaptation options. This paper addresses the question which adaptation options are suitable, from an economic perspective, to adapt spatial planning to climate change at a regional scale. We apply social cost-benefit analysis to assess the net benefits of adaptation options that deal with the impacts of climate change-induced extreme events. From the methods applied and results obtained, we also aim at learning lessons for assessing climate adaptation options. The case study area, the Zuidplaspolder, is a large-scale urban development project in the Netherlands. The costs as well as the primary and secondary benefits of adaptation options relating to spatial planning (e.g. flood-proof housing and adjusted infrastructure) are identified and where possible quantified. Our results show that three adaptation options are not efficient investments, as the investment costs exceed the benefits of avoided damages. When we focus on 'climate proofing' the total area of the Zuidplaspolder, when the costs and benefits of all the presented adaptation options are considered together, the total package has a positive net present value. The study shows that it is possible to anticipate climate change impacts and assess the costs and benefits of adjusting spatial planning. We have learned that scenario studies provide a useful tool but that decision-making under climate change uncertainty also requires insight into the probabilities of occurrence of weather extremes in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is mounting evidence that climate change is already having an impact on the wine industry, with effects being region specific. In order to understand the capacity of regional wine sectors to adapt to changing climate, it is useful to document the conditions that are important to producers and to identify adaptation and management strategies that are employed in the industry. This paper analyzes climatic conditions and adaptation strategies in the wine region of Prince Edward County Ontario, Canada. Wine producers identified the climate variables most important to their operations and described strategies they use to manage climate-related conditions. The identified variables were analyzed for trends over the study period 1987-2011, and interview data were analyzed in order to categorize adaptive strategies. Results indicate that the wine sector is very sensitive to climate, and the region is already experiencing the effects of climate change, especially with regard to increasing growing season mean minimum daily temperatures, increasing total summer rainfall, and later onset of fall frosts. Adaptive strategies employed by producers are largely learned though collaborative efforts and trial and error. The adaptations are mostly tactical and reactive in the short term, but with continued climate change, these strategies may develop into strategic, anticipatory measures. Climate change has the potential to present both challenges and opportunities to Prince Edward County wine producers, and adaptations will continue to require strong networking and collaborative efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a growing consensus among researchers that social aspects and the involvement of local communities play a critical role in public decision-making processes in the coastal zone. Social capital is a parameter which has recently gained significant attention in this context. It is regarded that it has a significant influence on the adaptation capacity of local communities to climate change impacts. The present paper aims to contribute to this field through an examination of citizens' perceptions of three coastal zone management policies (hold the line, managed realignment and no active intervention) along with the influence of social capital on the level of social acceptability for these proposed policy options. For this purpose, a quantitative empirical study was conducted for the first time in five coastal areas of Greece that are regarded as high flood-risk areas due to sea-level rise. Respondents demonstrated that they are willing to accept changes in their social and natural environments in order to confront sea-level rise and are more positive towards the managed realignment option, as long as this is accompanied by financial compensation for those whose properties will be affected. Regarding the influence of social capital, through the results of an ordinal regression, it was observed that institutional and social trust influence positively citizens' level of agreement for the managed realignment policy. Furthermore, respondents who believe that a sense of reciprocity exists in their community are also more willing to accept active intervention policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future climate conditions are likely to affect inland waterway transport in Europe. According to some climate scenarios, in summer, in the river Rhine, periods with low water levels are likely to occur more often and become more serious. Then inland waterway transport carriers will experience more severe restrictions on the load factor of their inland ships, which implies a stronger reduction in transport capacity in the market. Transport prices will rise under such conditions. Some studies reviewed in this paper find that at extremely low water levels, the price per tonne for inland waterway transport in the river Rhine area will almost double. These increased transport prices result in welfare losses. For the dry summer in 2003, the losses for North West Europe are estimated to sum up to around €480 million. Increased transport prices trigger adaptation. Inland waterway carriers may use smaller vessels, and shippers have the opportunity to shift from inland waterway transport to alternative transport modes in periods with low water levels. This effect is probably rather modest, however, with a modal shift to road and rail smaller than 10 %. Also, changes in transport costs may lead to relocation of certain economic activities in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical evidence of increasing flood damages and the prospect of climatic change has initiated discussions in the flood management community on how to effectively manage flood risks. In the Netherlands, the framework of multi-layer safety (MLS) has been introduced to support this risk-based approach. The MLS framework consists of three layers: (i) prevention, (ii) spatial planning and (iii) evacuation. This paper presents a methodology to evaluate measures in the second layer, such as wet proofing, dry proofing or elevating buildings. The methodology uses detailed land-use data for the area around the city of Rotterdam (up to building level) that has recently become available. The vulnerability of these detailed land-use classes to flooding is assessed using the stage-damage curves from different international models. The methodology is demonstrated using a case study in the unembanked area of Rotterdam in the Netherlands, as measures from the second layer may be particularly effective there. The results show that the flood risk in the region is considerable: EUR 36 million p.a. A large part (almost 60 %) of this risk results from industrial land use, emphasising the need to give this category more attention in flood risk assessments. It was found that building level measures could substantially reduce flood risks in the region because of the relatively low inundation levels of buildings. Risk to residential buildings would be reduced by 40 % if all buildings would be wet-proofed, by 89 % if all buildings would be dry-proofed and elevating buildings over 100 cm would render the risk almost zero. While climate change could double the risk in 2100, such building level measures could easily nullify this effect. Despite the high potential of such measures, actual implementation is still limited. This is partly caused by the lack of knowledge regarding these measures by most Dutch companies and the legal impossibility for municipalities to enforce most of these measures as they would go beyond the building codes established at the national level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the application of qualitative scenarios to understand community vulnerability and adaptation responses, based on a case study in the Slave River Delta region of the Northwest Territories, Canada. Three qualitative, graphic scenarios of possible alternative futures were developed, focusing on two main drivers: climate change and resource development. These were used as a focal point for discussions with a cross-section of residents from the community during focus groups, interviews and a community workshop. Significant overlap among the areas of perceived vulnerability is evident among scenarios, particularly in relation to traditional land use. However, each scenario also offers insights about specific challenges facing community members. Climate change was perceived to engender mostly negative livelihood impacts, whereas resource development was expected to trigger a mix of positive and negative impacts, both of which may be more dramatic than in the 'climate change only' scenario. The scenarios were also used to identify adaptation options specific to individual drivers of change, as well as more universally applicable options. Identified adaptation options were generally aligned with five sectors-environment and natural resources, economy, community management and development, infrastructure and services, and information and training-which effectively offer a first step towards prioritization of 'no regrets' measures. From an empirical perspective, while the scenarios highlighted the need for bottom-up measures, they also elucidated discussion about local agency in adaptation and enabled the examination of multi-dimensional impacts on different community sub-groups. An incongruity emerged between the suite of technically oriented adaptation options and more socially and behaviourally oriented barriers to implementation. Methodologically, the qualitative scenarios were flexible, socially inclusive and consistent with the Indigenous worldview; allowed the incorporation of different knowledge systems; addressed future community vulnerability and adaptation; and led to the identification of socially feasible and bottom-up adaptation outcomes. Despite some caveats regarding resource requirements for participatory scenario development, qualitative scenarios offer a versatile tool to address a range of vulnerability and adaptation issues in the context of other Indigenous communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new high-resolution regional climate change ensemble has been established for Europe within the World Climate Research Program Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) initiative. The first set of simulations with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km was completed for the new emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with more simulations expected to follow. The aim of this paper is to present this data set to the different communities active in regional climate modelling, impact assessment and adaptation. The EURO-CORDEX ensemble results have been compared to the SRES A1B simulation results achieved within the ENSEMBLES project. The large-scale patterns of changes in mean temperature and precipitation are similar in all three scenarios, but they differ in regional details, which can partly be related to the higher resolution in EURO-CORDEX. The results strengthen those obtained in ENSEMBLES, but need further investigations. The analysis of impact indices shows that for RCP8.5, there is a substantially larger change projected for temperature-based indices than for RCP4.5. The difference is less pronounced for precipitation-based indices. Two effects of the increased resolution can be regarded as an added value of regional climate simulations. Regional climate model simulations provide higher daily precipitation intensities, which are completely missing in the global climate model simulations, and they provide a significantly different climate change of daily precipitation intensities resulting in a smoother shift from weak to moderate and high intensities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The strategic use of science in regional policy-making forums often assumes collaborative interactions between stakeholders. However, other types of stakeholder interactions are possible. This paper uses the ecology of games to frame an investigation into stakeholder participation in the policy networks for regional climate change planning for South East Queensland, Australia. We tracked organisational participation in policy forums between 2008 and 2012. We then used a novel bipartite network theoretical approach to identify participation by different types of organisations across shared multiple forums, which we argue prefaces: cooperation, collaboration, support or advocacy. Network analysis was then combined with semi-structured interviews to access how scientific information was utilised across the regional network. Our results suggest that stakeholder interactions were predominately used to advocate for organisational agendas. Advocacy artificially narrows the scope of possible policy options and represents a biased, selective use of information. While advocacy is an important part of policy process, as a counter balance, explicit efforts are needed to recurrently expand the scope of policy options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate compatible development (CCD) has emerged as a new concept that bridges climate change adaptation, mitigation and community-based development. Progress towards CCD requires multi-stakeholder, multi-sector working and the development of partnerships between actors who may not otherwise have worked together. This creates challenges and opportunities that require careful examination at project and institutional levels and necessitates the sharing of experiences between different settings. In this paper, we draw on the outcomes from a multi-stakeholder workshop held in Mozambique in 2012, the final in a series of activities in a regional project assessing emerging CCD partnerships across southern Africa. The workshop involved policymakers, researchers and representatives from NGOs and the private sector. We employ a content analysis of workshop notes and presentations to identify the progress and challenges in moving four case study countries (the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe) towards CCD pathways, by exploring experiences from both project and policy levels. To advance institutional support for the development of successful CCD policies, practices and partnerships, we conclude that there is a need for: (a) institutional development at the national level to strengthen coordination and more clearly define roles and responsibilities across sectors, based on the identification of capacity and knowledge gaps; (b) partnership development, drawing on key strengths and competences of different stakeholders and emphasising the roles of the private sector and traditional authorities; (c) learning and knowledge-sharing through national and regional fora; and (d) development of mechanisms that permit more equitable and transparent distribution of costs and benefits. These factors can facilitate development of multi-stakeholder, multi-level partnerships that are grounded in community engagement from the outset, helping to translate CCD policy statements into on-the-ground action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is an increasing call for local measures to adapt to climate change, based on foresight analyses in collaboration with actors. However, such analyses involve many challenges, particularly because the actors concerned may not consider climate change to be an urgent concern. This paper examines the methodological choices made by three research teams in the design and implementation of participatory foresight analyses to explore agricultural and water management options for adaptation to climate change. Case studies were conducted in coastal areas of France, Morocco, and Portugal where the groundwater is intensively used for irrigation, the aquifers are at risk or are currently overexploited, and a serious agricultural crisis is underway. When designing the participatory processes, the researchers had to address four main issues: whether to avoid or prepare dialogue between actors whose relations may be limited or tense; how to select participants and get them involved; how to facilitate discussion of issues that the actors may not initially consider to be of great concern; and finally, how to design and use scenarios. In each case, most of the invited actors responded and met to discuss and evaluate a series of scenarios. Strategies were discussed at different levels, from farming practices to aquifer management. It was shown that such participatory analyses can be implemented in situations which may initially appear to be unfavourable. This was made possible by the flexibility in the methodological choices, in particular the possibility of framing the climate change issue in a broader agenda for discussion with the actors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land-use change is becoming an important anthropogenic force in the global climate system through alteration of the Earth's biogeophysical and biogeochemical processes. Cropland, which provides people with food, is the most variable vegetation land-use type and is affected by natural and anthropic forces and in turn affects the environment and climate system. This paper investigates the temporal-spatial pattern of cropland transition in the arid and semiarid region of northwest China, using remote sensing data for the late 1980s, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2008, and 2010. The aim was to clarify the change intensity and conversion pattern of cropland with a view to identifying the effects of a series of governmental policies and their influence on the climate system. Mathematical methodologies including the use of a transition matrix model, dynamic degree model, area-weighted centroid model, and area percentage were employed to analyze the temporal change in cropland. Meanwhile, a gridded zonal model with 10-km resolution was used to detect the spatial pattern of cropland transition. During the period from the late 1980s to 2010, cropland increased dramatically by 23,182.17 km, an increase of 13.61 % relative to the area under cultivation in the late 1980s. Cropland transition accumulated in the western oasis-desert ecotone of the study area while it declined in the eastern farming-pastoral ecotone, leading to the westward movement of the cropland centroid. A net decrease in natural vegetation and unused land along with a net increase in built-up land due to cropland conversion was observed in the monitoring period. The three major driving forces of the cropland transition were population growth, economic development, and land-use management governed by the Grain for Green Program. The climate response to different conversion patterns was simply analyzed. However, quantitative assessment of the effect should be undertaken by employing ecosystem and climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The benefits of integrated approaches to climate risk and adaptation studies are increasingly recognised. Thus, there is an increasing need for practical examples of such work in the literature. This paper describes a practical application of an integrated framework for climate change impacts on regional surface water resources and the urban water system in the Mamminasata metropolitan region, Indonesia. Two main features of the framework are: the integration of both climate and other physical and social considerations in the assessment; and the high stakeholder involvement before, during and after project implementation. Although the study is concerned with the Mamminasata region, the overall methodology is transferable to any region in Indonesia or internationally. Key outcomes from this study are: (1) creation of information for Mamminasata planners and water resources managers for when, and under what conditions, the water supply may or may not meet the demand; (2) a clear consensus and shared learning of the problems facing the region among cross-institutional stakeholders; and (3) identification of adaptation options for the urban water system and knowledge gaps and strategies for their implementation. Results of stakeholders' surveys conducted at the mid-point and at the end of the study indicate that these outputs will provide valuable guidance for future planning and management of Mamminasata regional water resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several recent international assessments have concluded that climate change has the potential to reverse the modest economic gains achieved in many developing countries over the past decade. The phenomenon of climate change threatens to worsen poverty or burden populations with additional hardships, especially in poor societies with weak infrastructure and economic well-being. The importance of the perceptions, experiences, and knowledge of indigenous peoples has gained prominence in discussions of climate change and adaptation in developing countries and among international development organizations. Efforts to evaluate the role of indigenous knowledge in adaptation planning, however, have largely focused on rural people and their agricultural livelihoods. This paper presents the results of a study that examines perceptions, experiences, and indigenous knowledge relating to climate change and variability in three communities of metropolitan Accra, which is the capital of Ghana. The study design is based on a three-part conceptual framework and interview process involving risk mapping, mental models, and individual stressor cognition. Most of the residents interviewed in the three communities of urban Accra attributed climate change to the combination of deforestation and the burning of firewood and rubbish. None of the residents associated climate change with fossil fuel emissions from developed countries. Numerous potential adaptation strategies were suggested by the residents, many of which have been used effectively during past drought and flood events. Results suggest that ethnic residential clustering as well as strong community bonds in metropolitan Accra have allowed various groups and long-settled communities to engage in the sharing and transmission of knowledge of weather patterns and trends. Understanding and building upon indigenous knowledge may enhance the design, acceptance, and implementation of climate change adaptation strategies in Accra and urban regions of other developing nations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decision-making for the purpose of adaptation to climate change typically involves multiple stakeholders, regions and sectors as well as multiple objectives related to the use of resources and perceived benefits. Standard cost–benefit analysis can be argued to take into account easily monetised effects only. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) embedded in participatory processes can therefore play an important role in defining the decision context and exploring stakeholders’ preferences. In this paper, a case study on flood protection of the Kokemäki river running through the city of Pori in West Finland was conducted. The study was realised as a MCDA workshop involving the key stakeholders of the region. The analysis produced a robust ranking of the considered flood protection alternatives. According to the stakeholders, the approach was useful as an exploratory way of gaining a deeper and shared understanding of the flood protection. It was shown that MCDA is well suited for decision-making in adaptation to climate change–enhanced extreme events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Within the context of a changing climate, scientists are called to engage directly with agricultural stakeholders for the coproduction of relevant information that will support decision making and adaptation. However, values, beliefs, identities, goals, and social networks shape perceptions and actions about climate change. Engagement processes that ignore the socio-cultural context within which stakeholders are embedded may fail to guide adaptive responses. To facilitate dialog around these issues, the Southeast Climate Consortium and the Florida Climate Institute formed a climate learning network consisting of row crop farmers, agricultural extension specialists, researchers, and climate scientists working in the Southeast US. Regional in scope, the learning network engages researchers and practitioners from Alabama, Georgia, and Florida as partners in adaptation science. This paper describes the ongoing interactions, dialog, and experiential learning among the network's diverse participants. We illustrate how participatory tools have been used in a series of workshops to create interactive spaces for knowledge coproduction. For example, historical timelines, climate scenarios, and technology exchanges stimulated discussions about climate-related risk management. We present findings from the workshops related to participants' perspectives on climate change and adaptation. Finally, we discuss lessons learned that may be applicable to other groups involved in climate education, communication, and stakeholder engagement. We suggest that the thoughtful design of stakeholder engagement processes can become a powerful social tool for improving decision support and strengthening adaptive capacity within rural communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]