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With this letter, we respond to the commentary by Kamp et al. on our paper (Nunez et al. in Reg Environ Chang 20:39, 2020) that reports on potential biodiversity change in Central Asian grasslands using climate and land-use change scenarios. In their commentary, Kamp et al. criticize data and methods employed and discuss several shortfalls of our approach. In this response, we argue that in our paper projections of future biodiversity already acknowledge the issues indicated by Kamp et al. We elaborate on the reasons why. We maintain our main finding that, based on a number of contrasting scenarios (shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways combinations), biodiversity in grasslands in Central Asia will potentially decline under each scenario. We conclude that while our data and methods conservatively estimate potential biodiversity changes in the Central Asian grasslands, they could be enriched with more elements. The results, however, are likely to confirm the vulnerability of these grasslands and the possible decline in their biodiversity.

Contains fulltext : 173076.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access) Flood risk of all types of flooding is projected to increase based on climate change projections and increases in damage potential. These challenges are likely to aggravate issues of justice in flood risk management (hereafter FRM). Based on a discursive institutionalist perspective, this paper explores justice in Dutch FRM: how do institutions allocate the responsibilities and costs for FRM for different types of flooding? What are the underlying conceptions of justice? What are the future challenges with regard to climate change? The research revealed that a dichotomy is visible in the Dutch approach to FRM: despite an abundance of rules, regulations and resources spent, flood risk or its management is only marginally discussed in terms of justice. Despite that, the current institutional arrangement has material outcomes that treat particular groups of citizens differently, depending on the type of flooding they are prone to, area they live in (unembanked/embanked) or category of user (e.g. household, industry, farmer). The paper argues that the debate on justice will (re)emerge, since the differences in distributional outcomes are likely to become increasingly uneven as a result of increasing flood risk. The Netherlands should be prepared for this debate by generating the relevant facts and figures. An inclusive debate on the distribution of burdens of FRM could contribute to more effective and legitimate FRM. 16 december 2016

In this paper, we contribute to recent attempts to operationalize the measurement of climate resilience by measuring household resilience to climate shocks and by assessing the role of farmer innovations in enhancing climate resilience. Adapting the Food and Agriculture Organization’s resilience tool, we develop a household resilience index using survey data from rural farm households in northern Ghana. The index consists of six components and 23 indicators and was constructed using two indicator-weighting approaches. The proposed resilience index is a simple tool that can be used to quantitatively assess the resilience of households to the incidence of climate shocks and to monitor interventions aimed at building rural household resilience to unpredictable shocks. The results indicate that farm households in the study region are weakly resilient to climate shocks. We also show that farmers go beyond adoption of externally driven technologies to develop their very own innovations, and these innovations contribute significantly to enhancing household resilience to climate shocks. Using propensity score matching method, we found that farmer innovators are about 6% more resilient to climate shocks than non-innovators. This result is robust to alternative weighting approaches and matching algorithms, and also to hidden bias. The paper concludes that policy efforts aiming at enhancing farm households’ resilience to climate shocks should consider providing support for farmers’ innovations.

Mainstreaming climate change adaptation (CCA) into plans and programs is still a new approach in adaptation and thus there is limited information on how to operationalize it on-ground. This paper addresses this gap by investigating the challenges in mainstreaming CCA into the local land use plans in the province of Albay, Philippines. Specifically, this paper developed 20 quantitative “mainstreaming indicators” to assess the state-of-play and the challenges for local mainstreaming. These indicators were classified under three groupings, namely, the information, institutional, and resource capacities of systems. Qualitative analysis of the indicator scores suggested that developing the institutional capacities of local governments is crucial in the local mainstreaming process. Likewise, the results highlighted the “institutional issues” indicator as the primary barrier in operationalizing the approach. These institutional issues are: fragmented laws and regulations; overlapping policy requirements; and the lack of guidelines for mainstreaming CCA into the local land use plans. Meanwhile, the “leadership” indicator, as signified by a climate change champion in Albay, was evaluated as an opportunity for local mainstreaming. The champion effectively led the CCA efforts because the existing institutional mechanisms supported the champion’s capacity to influence the behavior of people and produce collective action towards CCA.

This paper contributes to an enhanced understanding of present climatic conditions, observed climate trends and regional climate vulnerability of the Bhutan Himalayas. Bhutan’s complex, often high-altitude terrain and the severe impact of the Indian summer monsoon leads to a strong exposure of the countries’ key economic sectors (agriculture, forestry, hydropower generation and tourism) to climatic changes. Climate change also threatens Bhutan’s vast biodiversity and increases the likelihood of natural hazards (e.g. glacier lake outburst floods, flash floods, droughts and forest fires). A better understanding of Bhutan’s climate and its variability, as well as observed and possible climate impacts, will help in improving the handling of regional social, economic and ecologic challenges not limited to the Himalayas. Only a few climatological studies exist for the eastern Himalayas. They mainly focus on adaptation to immediate threats by glacier lake outbursts. In contrast, this paper (1) investigates the average spatial and inner-annual diversity of the air temperature regime of Bhutan, based on local meteorological observations, (2) discusses past temperature variability, based on global datasets, and (3) relates effects of observed warming to water availability, hydropower development, natural hazards, forests, biodiversity, agriculture, human health and tourism in the Bhutan Himalayas. Results indicate a large spatial and temporal temperature variability within Bhutan and considerably increasing temperatures especially over recent decades. Implications of regional climatic changes on various socio-economic sectors and possible adaptation efforts are discussed.

Flood risk management and policy in Europe are changing, so the role of local and catchment-wide flood risk management plans is now key contemporary issues in flood policy. A new policy agenda is to enhance inter-local solutions instead of local flood alleviation schemes. This paper analyses the new role of those local authorities and stakeholders in flood risk management as well as how the nature of the partnerships is established and operated, focusing especially on the main barriers and challenges. This paper examines catchment-based flood risk management in Austria. Catchment-based flood risk management was analysed in three different Austrian regions (Aist in Upper Austria, Triesting-Tal in Lower Austria and Ill-Walgau in Vorarlberg). The current functions of a partnership approach in flood risk prevention lie within the selection of sites for conservation of regionally important retention areas, harmonising spatial planning instruments and awareness-raising for protective measures on an inter-local level. The empirical results are currently characterised by a lack of sufficient co-operation between the members as well as with the regional authorities. The three case studies show different backgrounds and developments. The results show that the inter-local co-operation process is in no cases fully achieved. Some of the case studies show a higher integration in one field than others.

Social learning can be a vital tool in assisting communities to adapt to change. Local governments can be a conduit between the communities they serve and the policy that they are trying to implement. Social learning in this context can be an iterative, often organic process. Based on a case study of coastal planning in South Australia, Australia, this paper presents the results of a qualitative mixed-method approach that documents the aspects of social learning within coastal management and evaluates the various lessons learned by local governments in South Australia. The role of social learning and adaptive governance is discussed. The paper concludes that by deliberatively incorporating the notion of communities of practice into learning frameworks, local governments can more effectively manage their coastal zones in response to global change.

Recent years have witnessed a rapid increase in scholarship on adaptation to climate change. Peer-reviewed literature, governmental communiques and reports are increasingly reporting formulated and implemented climate change adaptation policies, strategies and plans of action. A large part of this literature describes general policy strategies, while there is limited published work on adaptation interventions at the local scale. The generality of adaptation is not only limited to strategies but also in terms of coverage of regions believed to be highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Among such climate change “hotspots” where understanding on adaptation is limited are river deltas. Herein, this paper synthesizes selected literature on adaptation policy and practice in river deltas located in Africa and South Asia. A systematic review methodology was used to scan online knowledge portals for published papers and also unpublished government documents. The review characterizes the state of adaptation policy in African and South Asian deltas and identifies future research priorities targeting climate change adaptation in large delta regions.

There is a growing availability of climate change information, offered to scientists and policy makers through climate services. However, climate services are not well taken up by the policy-making and planning community. Climate services focus on primary impacts of climate change, e.g., the disclosure of precipitation and temperature data, and this seems insufficient in meeting their needs. In this paper, we argue that, in order to reach the spatial planning community, climate services should take on a wider perspective by translating climate data to policy-relevant indicators and by offering support in the design of adaptation strategies. We argue there should be more focus on translating consequences of climate change to land-use claims and subsequently discuss the validity, consequences and implications of these claims with stakeholders, so they can play a role in spatial planning processes where much of the climate adaptation takes place. The term Climate Adaptation Services is introduced as being a stepwise approach supporting the assessment of vulnerability in a wider perspective and include the design and appraisal of adaptation strategies in a multi-stakeholder setting. We developed the Climate Adaptation Atlas and the Climate Ateliers as tools within the Climate Adaptation Services approach to support decision-making and planning processes. In this paper, we describe the different steps of our approach and report how some of the challenges were addressed.

Despite an exponential growth in the volume of adaptation research over the last decade, there is still a research gap in regard to the provision of suitable information to adequately inform climate change adaptation policy makers. Contributing to this gap is a paucity of research reporting on the effectiveness of implemented adaptation strategies. This paper reports on the success, failures and future risks of the responses taken by the South East Queensland (SEQ) water sector during the Millennium Drought. The adaptation strategy employed a portfolio approach mixing 'hard' and 'soft' adaptations. Strategies included the following: large-scale water manufacturing facilities and distribution networks; the exploitation of local water resources; regulatory instruments; institutional reforms; support for research and training and a range of demand management programmes. The strategies employed were innovative and in many cases required rigorous scientific evidence for their development, implementation and follow-up assessments. However, we show that there has been considerable disparity between anticipated and actual policy outcomes, which points to maladaptive consequences. By revisiting the effectiveness of implemented adaptation strategies in the SEQ water sector, our paper provides evidence for the need for integrative studies with genuine policy integration.

This paper examines perceived climate risks, their impacts, and existing adaptation practices at the local level, including the role of local institutions. The analysis focuses on two selected areas in Vietnam and Thailand. The paper is based on the information collected through key informant interviews at provincial and district level, focus group discussions at village level, and household survey. Several adaptation practices exist at local level to deal with the perceived risks of drought, floods, and salinity intrusion. Most of the adaptation practices were autonomous focusing on coping with short-term risks rather than structural long-term climate risks. Some adaptation practices, such as crop insurance and regulatory measures included in the literature and practiced in other places, did not exist at local level in the case study countries, but some local practices such as farmers’ annual fair could be an important addition to the inventory of potential adaptation measures. Local institutions have facilitated adaptation in different ways. They (1) lead and support unique adaptation practices suitable to the local context; (2) act as a catalyst to help people to adapt some practices by providing technical and material support; and (3) act as the bridge between local people and the governmental and non-governmental agencies. But several factors constrain the effectiveness of locally practiced adaptation measures. Thus, to enhance the adaptive capacity of households and the local community, it is necessary to: (1) improve the technical capacity of farmers; (2) create effective mechanisms for strengthening, promoting, and disseminating locally initiated efforts; (3) subsidize and improve access to credit services; (4) improve links between production and markets; and (5) establish effective mechanisms for coordination.

This paper applies vulnerability assessment methodology to assess the comparative vulnerability of different tourism supply types by region in Hungary. The steps of the methodology include (1) definition of tourism supply typology, (2) identifying exposure indicators, (3) identifying sensitivity indicators, (4) identification of adaptive capacity indicators and (5) developing a vulnerability map. It is clear that climate change has potential negative effects on tourism in Hungary, but the spatial distribution, as well as the sub-sectoral (by tourism supply types) differences of these impacts is almost unknown. Most research papers dealing with the vulnerability of tourism mainly focus on a specific tourism type, whereas this article aims to address all of them from a regional point of view. The key results presented in this paper include the vulnerability map of the country showing the relative vulnerability of different tourism supply types and detailed analysis investigating the possible causes and driving factors. We have categorized tourism regions based on the five most vulnerable tourism supply types. The most significant of them all turned out to be outdoor event-based tourism, being the most vulnerable in the two southern regions, since the expected impacts of climate change are foreseen to be the most significant in these areas.

The effectiveness of various adaptation options is dependent on the capacity to plan, design and implement them. Understanding the determinants of adaptive capacity is, therefore, crucial for effective responses to climate change. This paper offers an assessment of adaptive capacity across a range of sectors in South East Queensland, Australia. The paper has four parts, including (1) an overview of adaptive capacity, in particular as a learning process; (2) a description of the various methods used to determine adaptive capacity; (3) a synthesis of the determinants of adaptive capacity; and (4) the identification of mechanisms to build adaptive capacity in the region. We conclude that the major issue impacting adaptive capacity is not the availability of physical resources but the dominant social, political and institutional culture of the region.

While cities continue to cast a large environmental imprint on their regionally proximate environments, they are also exerting a stronger influence on the natural systems of more remote locations because of their growing interconnectedness and interdependence with other cities—in a word, globalization. This paper reviews some of the characteristic features of globalization and its environmental impacts. It also discusses possible responses to these developments and focuses in particular on the critical role that urban infrastructure systems can play. The paper concludes with a discussion of how one might conduct analyses supporting the management of changes in urban infrastructure systems to lighten urban environmental imprints.

Within southern Africa, many households are facing increasing pressures as they deal with multiple challenges such as low employment, high levels of disease, environmental resources under pressure and changing political landscapes. To respond to the needs of different individuals and households, it is important to define the nature of their vulnerability. An increasing amount of theoretical and empirical work on the concept of ‘vulnerability’ has led to a range of definitions, indicators and measurement tools, which have come to characterise this field of study. As a result, there is no one general consensus. This paper presents the results from the latest in a series of applied studies conducted since 2004 by a network of scientists working in southern Africa, aimed at refining the definition and application of the concept of vulnerability. The study employed a recently developed multiple-stressor model to guide the collection and analysis of data from three sites in South Africa and Malawi. In this paper, we identify and explore five key ‘symptoms’ of vulnerability emerging from our multi-country data and reflect on the usefulness of the model employed.

This paper is a response to a recent special issue of Regional Environmental Change, “Quantifying vulnerability to drought from different disciplinary perspectives” (vol. 8, number 4, 2008). In this paper, we examine some of the challenges facing efforts to understand vulnerability to drought through quantification as they are manifest in some of the articles in this special issue.

This paper develops a conceptual model to examine the vulnerability of Inuit food systems to food insecurity as a consequence of climate change. The model illustrates that food system vulnerability is determined by the exposure and sensitivity of the food system to climate-related risks and its adaptive capacity to deal with those risks. The model is empirically applied using a case study from Igloolik, Nunavut. Specifically, the paper focuses on how extreme climate-related conditions in 2006 interacted with the food system to affect food security, using 2006 as a lens to identify and characterize some of the processes and conditions shaping vulnerability, and establishing a baseline for identifying and characterizing processes that are likely to shape future vulnerability. There is a high level of adaptive capacity among Igloolik Inuit, with food sharing mechanisms, hunting flexibility, and store-food access moderating the impact of climatic-risks on food security. However, high fuel and commodity prices, the increasing economic burden of adapting to back-to-back years with unfavorable climatic conditions, underlying community vulnerabilities, and the nature to the climate extremes in 2006, overwhelmed the adaptive capacity of many community members. Those dependent on traditional foods and having limited access to financial resources were particularly vulnerable.

Climate change will have an impact on various sectors, such as housing, infrastructure, recreation and agriculture. Climate change may change spatial demands. For example, rising temperatures will increase the need for recreation areas, and areas could be assigned for water storage. There is a growing sense that, especially at the local scale, spatial planning has a key role in addressing the causes and impacts of climate change. This paper promotes an approach to help translate information on climate change impacts into a guiding model for adaptive spatial planning. We describe how guiding models can be used in designing integrated adaptation strategies. The concept of guiding models has been developed in the 1990s by Tjallingii to translate the principles of integrated water management in urban planning. We have integrated information about the present and future climate change and set up a climate adaptation guiding model approach. Making use of climate adaptation guiding models, spatial planners should be able to better cope with complexities of climate change impacts and be able to translate these to implications for spatial planning. The climate adaptation guiding model approach was first applied in the Zuidplaspolder case study, one of the first major attempts in the Netherlands to develop and implement an integrated adaptation strategy. This paper demonstrates how the construction of climate adaptation guiding models requires a participatory approach and how the use of climate adaptation guiding models can contribute to the information needs of spatial planners at the local scale, leading to an increasing sense of urgency and integrated adaptation planning process.

This article has an error that was introduced during the publishing process. In this paper, Figure 3 is mistakenly identical to Figure 2. The correct Figure 3 and its caption are provided here.

Few studies address past droughts by combining different geographical and temporal scales, and a contextualization of social and environmental conditions. This paper proposes a study of the 1857–1858 dry spell in eastern France (Alsace), its natural (climatological and hydrological) as well as socio-political consequences. This episode is one of the major droughts that affected the north of France in the nineteenth century, as much by its duration as by its intensity. Here, we do not only consider the drought as a natural hazard producing physical damage (lack of water, weakening of river discharge) or social tensions (competition for the water, conflicts), but we place it in the particular context of the basins it affects, in order to better evaluate its natural and social intensity. First, we highlight the importance of the 1857–1858 drought from the regional to the Alsatian scale, by unravelling the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitations, based on available instrumental measurements. Depending on the stations, the rainfall deficit established between 10 and 40% of the average rainfall amount in 1857 or 1858. Suitable, narrative sources from municipal, departmental and national archives allow us to specify the position of water stakeholders and to analyse the discourses as well as their social and political reactions. Comparing natural and social data, it appears that rivalries for water resource did not necessarily match the meteorological rhythm of the dry spell. The severity of the drought varies depending on economic needs. Three periods seem very demanding for water consumers: August–September 1857, February 1858, and August–October 1858. The structural responses appear to be linked to the economic context, both at a local and national scale. Finally, our approach shows that drought partly is a socially constructed phenomenon, and one to consider carefully, when it comes to both contemporary and past events. Hence, to better understand drought episodes, we need to disentangle the socio-natural interactions at the local level.

The quantitative analysis of hurricane impacts on coastal development in the Caribbean is surprisingly infrequent and many tools to assess physical vulnerability to sea level rise (SLR) are insufficient to evaluate risk in coastal areas exposed to wave attack during extreme events. This paper proposes a practical methodology to quantify coastal hazards and evaluate SLR impact scenarios in coastal areas, providing quantitative input for coastal vulnerability analysis. We illustrate the implementation of the proposed methodology with results from a site-specific analysis. We quantify how storm wave impacts penetrate farther inland and reach higher elevations for increasing SLR conditions. We also show that the increase in elevation of storm wave impacts is more than the nominal increase in mean sea level, and that elevation increase may be on the order of up to twice the nominal SLR. By developing design parameters for multiple scenarios, as opposed to the determination of a single SLR value for design established by consensus, this approach generates information that we argue encourages resilient design and embedding future adaptation in coastal design. We discuss how government planners and regulators, as well as real estate developers, lenders, and investors, can improve coastal planning and resilient design of coastal projects by using this approach.

Nuclear energy is a very important component of overall power supply in France. If the effects of future extreme weather events or climate shifts are not addressed, energy systems will be highly vulnerable to extreme weather events or shifts in weather patterns, such as changes in precipitation. Because of the deep uncertainties involved in climate projections and response strategies, any strategy implementation should perform adequately regardless of which scenario actually materialises. In this paper, we analyse the effects of drought and heat wave in the French nuclear energy sector using the Strategy Robustness Visualisation Method. The key feature of the method is the modelling of uncertainty of the quantitative indicators by (min, max) values plotted on radar plots such that each strategy option’s performance can be visually inspected for robustness. The method can be utilised as a “module” of its own in different uncertainty management approaches. Based on the case study, the presented adaptation strategies “Maintaining industrial production and final demand” and “Smart grid infrastructure” were more robust than the “No planned or automatic adaptation”.

Small island states around the world are among the areas most vulnerable to climate change and sea level rise. In this paper, we present results from an innovative methodology for a quantitative assessment of multiple hazards on coastal risks, driven by different hydro-meteorological events, and including the effects of climate change. Moreover, we take an additional step by including in the methodology the option to assess and compare the effectiveness of possible disaster risk reduction measures. The methodology is applied to a real case study at the island of Ebeye (the Republic of the Marshall Islands). An example is provided in which a rock revetment is implemented as a risk reduction measure for the island. Results show that yearly expected damages may increase, by the end of the century, by a factor of three to four, depending on the sea level rise scenario considered, while the number of yearly affected people may double. Putting a cap on the temperature increase (e.g. 1.5 vs. 2 °C) according to the Paris Agreement may reduce damages and number of affected people by about 20 and 15%, respectively. However, impacts for same warming levels can vary substantially among different emission scenarios. Disaster risk reduction measures can be useful for mitigating risks in current and future situations but should be incorporated within long-term adaptive planning for these islands.

Many papers have addressed the differing approaches to observation by scientists collecting instrumented data and by community or local knowledge-based observations. Integrating these ways of knowing is difficult because they operate at different scales and have different goals. It would benefit both scientists and communities to integrate community-based observations and instrumented data, despite obstacles, because it would expand scales of observation and because gauged data in the Arctic are sparse. This requires development of a protocol to integrate these knowledge systems to maximize reliability and validity. We used survey data from a community-based observing network in the Bering Sea and examined the correspondence of community-based observations with instrument-derived data for air temperature, sea ice break-up and freeze-up, and vegetation changes. Results highlight that there is a high correspondence between community-based observations for sea ice and vegetation change and instrumented data, but there is an inherent conflict in scales of observation for air temperature data. This helps to elucidate the benefits of community-based observing as a process for understanding and responding to change in the Arctic.

Changing precipitation patterns including more intense and prolonged dry periods have become a growing concern for people living in the Pacific Island region. People in the region are particularly sensitive to these changes given their resource-based livelihoods and high dependence on rainfall for their freshwater needs. Despite this, little attention has been given to understanding the implications of climatic changes for people and their capacity to manage these changes. This paper assesses human vulnerability to climate change (as it relates to fresh water resources) in Vusama, an iTaukei village in southwest Viti Levu, Fiji in the context of recent social and ecological changes. An analysis of data collected using a vulnerability approach that included semi-structured interviews, participant observation and analysis of secondary sources reveal that climate change together with behavioural changes are negatively affecting availability and access to clean freshwater, with implications for household economies, food security and human health. In particular, prolonged drought and changing seasonal patterns, together with people’s increasing reliance on a village borehole in lieu of family wells have resulted in a freshwater crisis. People are coping by using earnings from wage employment and harvesting and selling seafood to buy water and vegetables, rationing freshwater and depending on extended social networks for fresh produce. Current responses are reactive and short-term. Longer-term adaptation strategies are needed that consider expected future climate change and broader human development goals.

Climate change and its consequence of sea level rise are major issues for small island developing states (SIDS), as they worsen many other pressures on their people and their environment. Accordingly, articles in this special issue of Regional Environmental Change on SIDS address research gaps in the following thematic areas of the human dimensions of climate change. (1) Islander perceptions of climate change and the information sources on which these are based. (2) Migration to richer countries, which dominates popular media articles, so that scholars from a wide range of disciplines have given their perspectives on it. For many SIDS, however, relocation within that country is much more of an issue, but little studied as yet. (3) Community-based adaptation, a theme which only rarely appears in peer-reviewed journals. (4) National, regional and international policies and the effectiveness of their implementation. (5) Social and cultural issues arising from the above. This paper provides an overview of these and some related themes of importance to SIDS, including ocean acidification and land degradation. Researchers based in the SIDS and regional organisations have an important role in recognising these issues and in developing the local skills base needed to deal with them. The Paris Agreement of 2015 is a positive (but as yet inadequate) step towards the international action on climate change that SIDS need.

Made available in DSpace on 2018-12-11T16:46:23Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2017-08-01 Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) This paper examines barriers and opportunities for climate change adaptation in an urban coastal setting where adaptation is in its infancy. It draws on a diagnostic framework as a foundation for identifying and organising barriers and opportunities in terms of three broad phases of the adaptation process, i.e. (1) understanding the problem, (2) planning adaptation options and (3) managing implementation of such options. Data come from the analysis of documents (e.g. policy, plans and reports) and a survey of 49 representatives from 42 organisations (e.g. government, environmental non-governmental organisations, businesses and local industry and professional associations). Nineteen barriers and/or opportunities pertaining to the different phases of the adaptation process were identified. Three of those barriers (i.e. competing priorities, existing management context and existing ecological context) are our additions to the initial list of common barriers proposed in the diagnostic framework. Barriers pertaining to the understanding phase were the most frequently noted by respondents. The understanding phase was also one which most of the barriers were nevertheless considered as opportunities. Emerging critical barriers and/or opportunities for climate change adaptation included perception of signal, availability and accessibility of information, existing management context and leadership. We propose that addressing these barriers and opportunities would involve improving perception about climate change and availability and accessibility of information, fostering anticipatory planned adaptation through the existing management context and developing leadership for adaptation. Findings from this study may prove useful to other jurisdictions, particularly those where climate adaptation is at its early stages of development. Department of Water Resources and Environment Aeronautics Institute of Technology, Pça. Mal. Eduardo Gomes, 50 CTA/IEI Biosciences Institute São Paulo State University-UNESP, Coastal Campus, Praça Infante Dom Henrique s/n, P.O. Box 73601 Department of Life Sciences Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Buckhurst Road Sustainability Research Centre University of the Sunshine Coast Biosciences Institute São Paulo State University-UNESP, Coastal Campus, Praça Infante Dom Henrique s/n, P.O. Box 73601 CAPES: 417/2010

Ecosystem services (ES) management has to cope with a high degree of uncertainty related to changes in socio-economic and climatic conditions as well as in societal values. Information regarding the quantity and location of these uncertainties can facilitate identifying which areas require management attention and policy support. In this context, science for mapping ES is evolving rapidly, but there remains a lack of quantitative methods to integrate and visualize uncertainties related to regional and global changes that affect both ES supply and demand. Using a mountain case study in Switzerland, this paper quantifies and maps the uncertainty of future ES provision related to changes in regional and global socio-economic and climatic drivers as well as in ES preferences. We model and map patterns of (dis)agreements regarding ES in a multitude of scenarios and evaluate the magnitude and sources of uncertainty in these patterns. The results illuminate which drivers cause the highest levels of uncertainty in future ES provision and highlight areas where changes in ES are similar across scenarios or where changes are dependent on regional or global contexts. In this case study, changes in ES occur more consistently in remote areas, while in the main valley such changes are highly uncertain and particularly sensitive to national socio-economic drivers and climate change. The uncertainty maps can serve as a basis for discussing regional development plans and national policy strategies. The suggested approach could serve as a straightforward means to quantify and communicate spatial uncertainties in future ES studies.

With increasing funding directed towards climate change adaptation (CCA) in developing countries, there is a growing need to understand how this support is landing on the ground and impacting on the targeted vulnerable communities. Due to failure of top-down approaches, international organisations such as the adaptation fund are now demanding direct involvement of local actors when funding adaptation actions. Direct access mechanisms have been developed to facilitate channelling fund from the international to local levels. At this level, civil society, public and private organisations have a key role to play to assist adaptation among vulnerable groups. But are local organisations ready to play that role in developing countries? In this paper, we develop and apply a framework to measure adaptive capacity among local organisations. Through extensive fieldwork in South Africa, we assessed the capacity of local organisations to develop and implement CCA projects, and thus access international funds for adaptation. Results highlight key determinants of adaptive capacity and identify areas to prioritise for capacity-building interventions. Key findings include strengthening local organisations’ effectiveness (e.g. resources, project management capacity) and flexibility; raising awareness about adaptation and its links with socio-economic development; and promoting partnerships and knowledge networks as pathways to build adaptive capacity among local organisations in South Africa.

The interior savannah ecosystem in Ghana is subjected to a number of hazards, including droughts, windstorms, high temperatures and heavy rainfall. The frequency and intensity of these hazards are projected to increase during the twenty-first century as a result of climate variability and change. Vulnerabilities to these hazards vary, both spatially and temporally, due to differences in susceptibilities and adaptive capacities. Many mapping exercises in Ghana have considered the impacts of single hazards on single sectors, particularly agriculture. But the hazards often occur concurrently or alternately and have varying degrees of impacts on different sectors. The impacts also interact. These interactions make mapping of the vulnerabilities of multiple sectors to multiple hazards imperative. This paper presents an analysis of the spatial dimension of vulnerabilities by mapping vulnerability of sectors that support livelihood activities at a single point in time, using the Upper East Region of Ghana as a case study. Data collected to develop the maps were largely quantitative and from secondary sources. Other data drew on fieldwork undertaken in the region from July to September 2013. Quantitative values were assigned to qualitative categorical data as the mapping process is necessarily quantitative. Data were divided into susceptibility and adaptive capacity indicators and mapped in ArcGIS 10.2 using weighted linear sum aggregation. Agriculture was found to be the most vulnerable sector in all districts of the Upper East Region and experienced the greatest shocks from all hazards. Although all districts were vulnerable, the Talensi, Nabdam, Garu-Temapane and Kassena-Nankana West Districts were most vulnerable. Findings highlight the need for more targeted interventions to build adaptive capacity in light of the spatial distributions of vulnerabilities to hazards across sectors.

Local and traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) systems are thought to be particularly valuable for fostering adaptation and resilience to environmental and climate change. This paper investigates the role of TEK in adaptation to social–ecological change at the community level. It is unique because it takes a longitudinal perspective and draws on historical and contemporary data. We focus on a case study from Hawai‘i where TEK, cultural identity, and their relationships to environmental stewardship are locally seen as the basis for social resilience. We describe how coping strategies and indicators of social resilience have changed over time; the role of TEK in resilience; and the implications for climate change adaptation. Our results show the relative contributions of some strategies to cope with social–ecological change have decreased (e.g., forecasting, storage, and mobility), while others have maintained but adapted (e.g., livelihood diversification, knowledge transmission and storage, communal pooling, and cultural identity), underscoring the importance of considering multiple strategies together to promote community resilience. The article argues that understanding how people responded in the past can suggest relevant and culturally appropriate ways—through specific language, values, reference points, and indicators expressed in narratives, proverbs, and songs—of situating climate change and framing adaptation planning. This research also shows that TEK is vital for adaptation to environmental change broadly and climate change in particular, for subsistence-based, indigenous, rural communities, as well as place-based communities living in mixed economies. Thus, it is relevant for the larger Pacific Islands region and other areas that represent a continuum from rural-to-urban and traditional-to-global economies and lifeways.

This paper analyses the influence of climate change and land development on future flood risk for selected Austrian flood-prone municipalities. As part of an anticipatory micro-scale risk assessment we simulated four different inundation scenarios for current and future 100- and 300-year floods (which included a climate change allowance), developed scenarios of future settlement growth in floodplains and evaluated changes in flood damage potentials and flood risk until the year 2030. Findings show that both climate change and settlement development significantly increase future levels of flood risk. However, the respective impacts vary strongly across the different cases. The analysis indicates that local conditions, such as the topography of the floodplain, the spatial allocation of vulnerable land uses or the type of land development (e.g. residential, commercial or industrial) in the floodplain are the key determinants of the respective effects of climate change and land development on future levels of flood risk. The case study analysis highlights the general need for a more comprehensive consideration of the local determinants of flood risk in order to increase the effectiveness of an adaptive management of flood risk dynamics.

Commercial cultivation of kiwifruit in New Zealand is concentrated in a relatively small area of the North Island. Cultivation is economically significant and growing quickly. However, current understanding of vulnerability for this, and other primary sector activities in New Zealand, makes almost exclusive use of linear outcome-oriented frameworks. Drawing on in-depth, semi-structured interviews with kiwifruit growers and orchard managers, workshops and analysis of secondary data, a “bottom-up” contextual assessment of vulnerability was developed and empirically applied. The findings suggest that climate and markets are the main sources of exposure for growers, with sensitivity moderated by location. Growers employ mostly short-term, reactive adaptive strategies to manage climate exposure and sensitivity, but have less capacity to respond to market-related stressors. Warmer and drier conditions are likely to have adverse effects for kiwifruit production and compound existing vulnerabilities. An ageing population and other processes of rural change may also constrain future adaptation. In order to realise opportunities and minimise losses, longer-term strategic responses are required. The paper demonstrates the need to move beyond outcome-oriented and model-based vulnerability assessments in New Zealand, to consider the broad range of the factors that contribute to vulnerability in the nation’s agricultural sectors. It provides a basis for further consideration of multiple exogenous impacts in the industry and confirms the critical importance of qualitatively vulnerability assessments to determine spatially specific outcomes.

Regional organisations play a central role in coordinating regional climate change adaptation responses across small island developing states, 58 countries that are particularly vulnerable to climate change and its impacts. The effectiveness of these organisations in coordinating adaptation efforts is underexplored in the academic literature, and this paper helps to fill the gap. By developing the Framework for Assessing Regional Organisations Coordinating Climate Change Adaptation, it qualitatively assesses the adaptation-related inputs, projects/programmes and outputs of the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, the Secretariat of the Pacific Community and the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme. This assessment is enriched by data gathered through interviews with national and regional climate change and development officials in the Caribbean and Pacific. It finds that regional organisations are more effective with respect to their adaptation-related inputs and outputs, but are less effective in coordinating adaptation projects/programmes. It recommends that, in addition to differentiating organisational mandates, regional organisations should focus on resolving the major climate-related information deficit issues, helping countries to develop ready to finance investment projects, building national-level capacities to adapt and supporting the creation of an enabling environment for climate change adaptation.

The socio-cultural assessment of ecosystem services has been proposed as a promising tool for eliciting people’s preferences towards ecosystem services. Despite an increasing integration of the socio-cultural perspective in ecosystem service research, little knowledge exists about linkages between landscape and the socio-cultural values people assign to ecosystem services. This paper combines a socio-cultural valuation approach with the use of landscape pictures to analyse and compare people’s perceived importance of the provisioning, regulating, and cultural ecosystem service categories across three landscape types (i.e. larch meadows, spruce forests, and hay meadow). A survey with 470 tourists visiting the region of South Tyrol (Italy) was conducted to link people’s perceived importance to their socio-demographic background and to the landscape types explored. The results show that regulating ecosystem services are preferred over provisioning and cultural services, whereby environmental awareness is found to be more influential than formal education levels regarding the perceived importance of regulating services. The results further demonstrate that cultural background is an important driver in determining people’s perceived importance of cultural services. The underlying landscape types, however, exert an even stronger influence on people’s socio-cultural valuation of ecosystem service categories. This finding suggests that the focus of most ecosystem services assessments on the study area as a whole risks mistakenly attributing differences in people’s socio-cultural values to socio-demographic characteristics only. A better knowledge of the spatial integration of socio-cultural values, however, could help with anticipating the consequences of changes in the landscape and provide better guidance for future landscape planning.

International audience; The conservation and sustainable use of forests in the twenty-first century pose huge challenges for forest management and policy. Society demands that forests provide a wide range of ecosystem services, from timber products, raw materials and renewable energy to sociocultural amenities and habitats for nature conservation. Innovative management and policy approaches need to be developed to meet these often-conflicting demands in a context of environmental change of uncertain magnitude and scale. Genetic diversity is a key component of resilience and adaptability. Overall, forest tree populations are genetically very diverse, conferring them an enormous potential for genetic adaptation via the processes of gene flow and natural selection. Here, we review the main challenges facing our forests in the coming century and focus on how recent progress in genetics can contribute to the development of appropriate practical actions that forest managers and policy makers can adopt to promote forest resilience to climate change. Emerging knowledge will inform and clarify current controversies relating to the choice of appropriate genetic resources for planting, the effect of silvicultural systems and stand tending on adaptive potential and the best ways to harness genetic diversity in breeding and conservation programs. Gaps in our knowledge remain, and we identify where additional information is needed (e.g., the adaptive value of peripheral populations or the genetic determinism of key adaptive traits) and the types of studies that are required to provide this key understanding.

The Sahel has been the object of intensive international research since the drought of the early 1970s. A considerable part of the research has focused on environmental change in general and land degradation, land cover change and climate change in particular. Rich and diverse insights from many different scientific disciplines about these three domains have been put forward. One intriguing feature is that an agreement on the overall trends of environmental change does not appear to emerge: questions such as whether the Sahel is greening, cropland is encroaching on rangelands, drought persists remain contested in the scientific literature, and arguments are supported by contrasting empirical evidence. The paper explores the generic reasons behind this situation in a systematic manner. We distinguish between divergences in interpretations emerging from (1) conceptualizations, definitions and choice of indicators, (2) biases, for example, related to selection of study sites, methodological choices, measurement accuracy, perceptions among interlocutors, and selection of temporal and spatial scales of analysis. The analysis of the root causes for different interpretations suggests that differences in findings could often be considered as complementary insights rather than mutually exclusive. This will have implications for the ways in which scientific results can be expected to support regional environmental policies and contribute to knowledge production.

Through extensive research, ecosystem services have been mapped using both survey-based and biophysical approaches, but comparative mapping of public values and those quantified using models has been lacking. In this paper, we mapped hot and cold spots for perceived and modeled ecosystem services by synthesizing results from a social-values mapping study of residents living near the Pike–San Isabel National Forest (PSI), located in the Southern Rocky Mountains, with corresponding biophysically modeled ecosystem services. Social-value maps for the PSI were developed using the Social Values for Ecosystem Services tool, providing statistically modeled continuous value surfaces for 12 value types, including aesthetic, biodiversity, and life-sustaining values. Biophysically modeled maps of carbon sequestration and storage, scenic viewsheds, sediment regulation, and water yield were generated using the Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services tool. Hotspots for both perceived and modeled services were disproportionately located within the PSI’s wilderness areas. Additionally, we used regression analysis to evaluate spatial relationships between perceived biodiversity and cultural ecosystem services and corresponding biophysical model outputs. Our goal was to determine whether publicly valued locations for aesthetic, biodiversity, and life-sustaining values relate meaningfully to results from corresponding biophysical ecosystem service models. We found weak relationships between perceived and biophysically modeled services, indicating that public perception of ecosystem service provisioning regions is limited. We believe that biophysical and social approaches to ecosystem service mapping can serve as methodological complements that can advance ecosystem services-based resource management, benefitting resource managers by showing potential locations of synergy or conflict between areas supplying ecosystem services and those valued by the public.

Rivers are the cultural, social and economic backbone of South Asia, and therefore, the focus of public, political and scientific debate. Himalayan glaciers are the source of numerous large Asian river systems, which support rich ecosystems and irrigate millions of hectares of fields, thereby supporting about a billion people who live in their catchments. Impacts of climate change in river systems are likely to have considerable social, economic, ecological and political implications. This paper reviews literature for three major glacier-fed river systems of South Asia—Brahmaputra, Ganga and Indus—to understand governance mechanisms for climate adaptation in the region. A systematic review methodology is applied to examine adaptation responses in the riparian countries of these Himalayan river basins in three different levels—policy objectives, institutions and practice. Using the “fit for purpose” governance framework, we try to examine how far or near is the region for operationalizing principles of adaptive governance.

The effectiveness of climate adaptation policies in one sector can be compromised or aided by policies developed in another sector. When the focus of adaptation is a single geographical region, this potential for interaction between sectoral policies is heightened due to spatial, political and functional proximities. This paper analyses interactions within three suites of climate adaptation options developed for Australia’s ‘South-East Queensland’ region relating to: (1) wetland migration, coastal infrastructure and planned retreat; (2) urban water security and energy demand; and (3) terrestrial biodiversity and agricultural viability. Using the concept of ‘institutional interplay’ to structure a process of dialogue amongst researchers, we identify a number of critical implementation requirements for successful regional-scale adaptation. There is a need for greater focus on neighbourhood or sub-regional scales of policy design and intervention, particularly for the coordination of adapted infrastructure and services to households. Policy-makers must also be more explicit in considering broader drivers of land-use change and economic adjustment likely to impact on proposed adaptations. In considering these issues, our paper also demonstrates a process for conducting cross-sectoral syntheses that can be employed in other regional-scale adaptation studies.

Climate change impacts affecting coastal areas, such as sea-level rise and storm surge events, are expected to have significant social, economic and environmental consequences worldwide. Ongoing population growth and development in highly urbanised coastal areas will exacerbate the predicted impacts on coastal settlements. Improving the adaptation potential of highly vulnerable coastal communities will require greater levels of planning and policy integration across sectors and scales. However, to date, there is little evidence in the literature which demonstrates how climate policy integration is being achieved. This paper contributes to this gap in knowledge by drawing on the example provided by the process of developing cross-sectoral climate change adaptation policies and programmes generated for three coastal settlement types as part of the South East Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative (SEQCARI), a 3-year multi-sectoral study of climate change adaptation options for human settlements in South East Queensland, Australia. In doing so, we first investigate the benefits and challenges to cross-sectoral adaptation to address climate change broadly and in coastal areas. We then describe how cross-sectoral adaptation policies and programmes were generated and appraised involving the sectors of urban planning and management, coastal management, emergency management, human health and physical infrastructure as part of SEQCARI. The paper concludes by discussing key considerations that can inform the development and assessment of cross-sectoral climate change adaptation policies and programmes in highly urbanised coastal areas.

Sub-Saharan Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Multiple biophysical, political, and socioeconomic stresses interact to increase the region’s susceptibility and constrain its adaptive capacity. Climate change is commonly recognized as a major issue likely to have negative consequences on food security and livelihoods in the region. This paper reviews three bodies of scholarship that have evolved somewhat separately, yet are inherently interconnected: climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, food security, and sustainable livelihoods. The paper develops a conceptualization of the relationships among the three themes and shows how food security’s vulnerabilities are related to multiple stresses and adaptive capacities, reflecting access to assets. Food security represents one of several livelihood outcomes. The framework shows how several research paradigms relate to the issue of food security and climate change and provides a guide for empirical investigations. Recognizing these interconnections can help in the development of more effective policies and programs. The framework is applied here to synthesize findings from an array of studies in sub-Saharan Africa dealing with vulnerability to climate change, food security, and livelihoods.

The Rhone basin is one of Europe's major rivers. It stretches from its source in the Swiss Alps through to the Lake Geneva and then down through France to its mouth on the Mediterranean Sea, where its delta constitutes the Camargue Region. It crosses three different ‘cantonal' jurisdictions in Switzerland alone, while its course through Lake Geneva itself demarcates the border between France and Switzerland. This presents a valuable opportunity to analyse the multitude of challenges that face the manage- ment of a river flowing through such a variety of different hydrological contexts and institutional settings (Swiss, French and European). For the first time, this special issue collates interdisciplinary insights into the challenges faced by the governance systems across the entire Rhoˆne basin. Papers present insights into barriers and opportunities for effectively responding to the many political, economic and climatological challenges facing the managers of the River Rhoˆne overthe coming decades.

Climate change is already affecting many natural systems and human environments worldwide, like the semiarid Guadiana Basin in Spain. This paper illustrates a systematic analysis of climate change adaptation in the Guadiana irrigation farming region. The study applies a solution-oriented diagnostic framework structured along a series of sequential analytical steps. An initial stage integrates economic and hydrologic modeling to evaluate the effects of climate change on the agriculture and water sectors. Next, adaptation measures are identified and prioritized through a stakeholder-based multi-criteria analysis. Finally, a social network analysis identifies key actors and their relationships in climate change adaptation. The study shows that under a severe climate change scenario, water availability could be substantially decreased and drought occurrence will augment. In consequence, farmers will adapt their crops to a lesser amount of water and income gains will diminish, particularly for smallholder farms. Among the various adaptation measures considered, those related to private farming (new crop varieties and modern irrigation technologies) are ranked highest, whereas public-funded hard measures (reservoirs) are lowest and public soft measures (insurance) are ranked middle. In addition, stakeholders highlighted that the most relevant criteria for selecting adaptation plans are environmental protection, financial feasibility and employment creation. Nonetheless, the social network analysis evidenced the need to strengthen the links among the different stakeholder groups to facilitate the implementation of adaptation processes. In sum, the diagnostic framework applied in this research can be considered a valuable tool for guiding and supporting decision making in climate change adaptation and communicating scientific results.

Elderly people are known to be more vulnerable than the general population to a range of weather-related hazards such as heat waves, icy conditions and cold periods. In the Nordic region, some of these hazards are projected to change their frequency and intensity in the future, while at the same time strong increases are projected in the proportion of elderly in the population. This paper reports results from three projects studying the potential impacts of climate change on elderly people in the Nordic region. An interactive web-based tool has been developed for mapping and combining indicators of climate change vulnerability of the elderly, by municipality, across three Nordic countries: Finland, Norway and Sweden. The tool can also be used for projecting temperature-related mortality in Finland under different projections of future climate. The approach to vulnerability mapping differs from most previous studies in which researchers selected the indicators to combine into an index. Here, while researchers compile data on indicators that can be accessed in the mapping tool, the onus is on the users of the tool to decide which indicators are of interest and whether to map them individually or as combined indices. Stakeholders with responsibility for the care and welfare of the elderly were engaged in the study through interviews and a workshop. They affirmed the usefulness of the prototype mapping tool for raising awareness about climate change as a potential risk factor for the elderly and offered suggestions on potential refinements, which have now been implemented. These included adding background information on possible adaptation measures for ameliorating the impacts of extreme temperatures, and improved representation of uncertainties in projections of future exposure and adaptive capacity.

This paper covers a comprehensive economic analysis of climate change adaptation options for a specific wine producing region, namely Tuscany. As temperature increases under climate change, rainfall patterns will be different, and Chianti wine production in Tuscany therefore needs to adapt in the near future. We address the adaptation challenges and identify grape yield and quality loss as the main impact of climate change on wine production. Relocation of vineyards uphill and introducing drought-resistant varieties are considered as adaptation measures. We appraise these adaptation measures using an optimization framework, where regional wine producers maximize income subject to economic constraints including the climate change impacts on wine productivity and quality. Our simulation shows quantitatively to what extent a higher degree of climate change impact demands a higher degree of adaptation. We find that a combination of the two measures provides a better strategy because it leads to higher economic efficiency. However, uncertainty regarding the efficiency of the new variety discourages the use of this new drought-resistant variety, whereas a higher efficiency would make this choice more favourable. Sensitivity analysis for time horizon and discount rate confirms the theory of investment under uncertainty, showing a shorter time horizon (or more frequent investment) provides the possibility to postpone the decision to implement adaptation measures due to the value of flexibility, while a higher discount rate leads to a later adaptation decision, because uncertainty creates a value of waiting for new information.

This paper discusses four challenges for mainstreaming climate change into European flood and drought risk management policies within the water and agriculture sectors: the climate change impact challenge; the robust policy challenge; the EU policy maze challenge; and the implementation challenge. We illustrate with examples from the Warta River Basin in Poland. The challenge of reliably estimating the impact of climate change on flood and drought risk at the local and regional scales has led to the pursuit of robust policy solutions. Robust policy solutions, as we demonstrate by comparing reservoirs and small ponds, can be equally intractable given the lack of information on their costs, benefits, and co-benefits, particularly if climate change is taken into account. The mainstreaming challenge is further complicated by the myriad of EU policies targeting flood and drought risks. While the European Commission is working towards a coherent policy picture, we demonstrate contradictions regarding reservoir and other water retention policies. Finally, mainstreaming climate change in flood and drought policy is further challenged by the web of responsible institutions at local, regional, and national scales.

Farmers’ behavioural attitudes towards climate change are complex and poorly understood, making difficult the development of mitigation and adaptation policies that would be accepted and implemented. So far, the scientific literature has not clearly framed behavioural barriers related to the uptake of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Therefore behavioural barriers are frequently not considered in the modelling framework for climate change policy assessments. This paper presents a method that frames farmers’ behavioural barriers and analyses their main determinants in order to incorporate behavioural constraints in the modelling frameworks. Three focus group discussions and a household survey were carried out in order to assess farmers’ behavioural barriers taking into account the perspectives of both farmers and agricultural technical advisors. The analytical framework includes Principal Component Analysis to identify behavioural barriers and a binary Logit model to analyse the marginal effects of their main determinants. Farming experience, educational attainment and receiving climate information seem to be the key factors that determine the probability of displaying or not displaying most behavioural barriers. This work presents a method to model behavioural barriers in the context of the adoption of climate change adaptation and mitigation practices. Since a better understanding of behavioural barriers can help to enhance the support of mitigation and adaptation policies to farmers, this study could provide a valuable contribution to the deliberation of climate change policies in Kenya.

Several years with extreme floods or droughts in the past decade have caused human suffering in remote communities of the Brazilian Amazon. Despite documented local knowledge and practices for coping with the high seasonal variability characteristic of the region’s hydrology (e.g., 10 m change in river levels between dry and flood seasons), and despite ‘civil defense’ interventions by various levels of government, the more extreme years seem to have exceeded the coping capacity of the community. In this paper, we explore whether there is a real increase in variability, whether the community perceives that recent extreme events are outside the experience which shapes their responses to ‘normal’ levels of variability, and what science-based policy could contribute to greater local resilience. Hydrological analyses suggest that variability is indeed increasing, in line with expectations from future climate change. However, current measures of hydrological regimes do not predict years with social hardship very well. Interviewees in two regions are able to express their strategies for dealing with ‘normal’ variability very well, but also identify ways in which abnormal years exceed their ability to cope. Current civil defense arrangements struggle to deliver emergency assistance in a sufficiently timely and locally appropriate fashion. Combining these insights in the context of social–ecological change, we suggest how better integration of science, policy and local knowledge could improve resilience to future trends, and identify some contributions science could make into such an arrangement.

Indigenous people living in the Circumpolar North rely, to varying degrees, on the natural environment and the resources it provides for their lifestyle and livelihoods. As a consequence, these Northern Indigenous peoples may be more sensitive to global climate change, which has implications for food security, cultural practices, and health and well-being. To date, most research on the human dimensions of climate change in the Circumpolar North has focused on biophysical issues and their consequences, such as changing sea ice regimes affecting travel to hunting grounds or the effects of melting permafrost on built infrastructure. Less is known about how these changes in the environment affect mental health and well-being. In this paper, we build upon existing research, combined with our community-based research and professional mental health practices, to outline some pathways and mechanisms through which climate change may adversely impact mental health and well-being in the Circumpolar North. Our analysis indicates that mental health may be affected by climate change due to changes to land, ice, snow, weather, and sense of place; impacts to physical health; damage to infrastructure; indirect impacts via media, research, and policy; and through the compounding of existing stress and distress. We argue that climate change is likely an emerging mental health challenge for Circumpolar Indigenous populations and efforts to respond through research, policy, and mental health programming should be a priority. We conclude by identifying next steps in research, outlining points for policy, and calling for additional mental health resources that are locally responsive and culturally relevant.