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Generalized relative and absolute risk models are fitted to the latest Japanese atomic bomb survivor solid cancer and leukemia mortality data (through 2000), with the latest (DS02) dosimetry, by classical (regression calibration) and Bayesian techniques, taking account of errors in dose estimates and other uncertainties. Linear-quadratic and linear-quadratic-exponential models are fitted and used to assess risks for contemporary populations of China, Japan, Puerto Rico, the U.S. and the UK. Many of these models are the same as or very similar to models used in the UNSCEAR 2006 report. For a test dose of 0.1 Sv, the solid cancer mortality for a UK population using the generalized linear-quadratic relative risk model is estimated as 5.4% Sv(-1) [90% Bayesian credible interval (BCI) 3.1, 8.0]. At 0.1 Sv, leukemia mortality for a UK population using the generalized linear-quadratic relative risk model is estimated as 0.50% Sv(-1) (90% BCI 0.11, 0.97). Risk estimates varied little between populations; at 0.1 Sv the central estimates ranged from 3.7 to 5.4% Sv(-1) for solid cancers and from 0.4 to 0.6% Sv(-1) for leukemia. Analyses using regression calibration techniques yield central estimates of risk very similar to those for the Bayesian approach. The central estimates of population risk were similar for the generalized absolute risk model and the relative risk model. Linear-quadratic-exponential models predict lower risks (at least at low test doses) and appear to fit as well, although for other (theoretical) reasons we favor the simpler linear-quadratic models.

Approximately 1800 female CBA/Ca mice were exposed by inhalation at three dose levels to beta particles from (45)Ca-labeled fused aluminosilicate particles (FAP), to alpha particles from (242)Cm-labeled FAP, or to carrier control FAP. Another group of mice inhaled no FAP and were designated as untreated cage controls. The FAP in combination with these radionuclides was used to achieve the same spatial and temporal distribution of alpha- and beta-particle dose within the irradiated mice. Some mice were killed to determine the clearance of radiolabeled FAP from their lungs, and the remainder were allocated to a life-span study. All animals were subjected to a detailed necropsy. To facilitate the identification of small tumors, the lungs were rendered transparent in methyl salicylate and examined under back illumination for the presence of lesions. Lung nodules and other microscopic lesions were excised for histological examination. The median survival of mice in all groups was approximately 910 days. The control animals lived longer than those that were irradiated, but it was difficult to determine a dose-response relationship for survival among the exposed mice. Benign adenomas and, less frequently, malignant adenocarcinomas were identified in all animal groups. The prevalence of these tumors was approximately 28.8% in the control mice, which is consistent with the results of other studies using the same strain of mouse. After exposure to radionuclide-labeled FAP, there was a significant dose-related increase in the prevalence of lung tumors in (242)Cm- (peak prevalence 55%) and (45)Ca-exposed (peak prevalence 48.6%) mice. The prevalence of tumors in the mice that received (242)Cm-labeled FAP was approximately twice that in the mice that inhaled (45)Ca-labeled FAP within the range of doses employed (0.55-4.69 Gy). Using the ratio of the slope of the linear component of the dose-response curves, the toxicity of the alpha particles relative to the beta particles was 1.5 (90% CI: 0.7, 9.0) for all adenomas and 9.4 (90% CI: 5.0, 23.0) for the less frequent adenocarcinomas. The relative toxicity for adenocarcinomas was found to decrease with increasing dose.

Misrejoining of double-strand breaks (DSBs) detected with pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) after X irradiation of human cells at very high doses (80-160 Gy) is related to dose-response relationships for chromosome aberrations at moderate doses (1-5 Gy) by the Sax-Markov binary eurejoining/misrejoining (SMBE) model. The SMBE model applies Sax's breakage-and-reunion hypothesis to a subset of DSBs active in binary misrejoining and in binary eurejoining (accidental restitution). The model is numerically consistent with both data on chromosome aberrations and the data obtained by PFGE if proximity effects (restrictions on the range of interactions of DSB free ends) are present. Proximity effects are modeled by partitioning the cell's nucleus into approximately 400 interaction sites, with two active DSB free ends capable of rejoining only if they were produced within the same site. Neglecting one-track action, the SMBE model predicts a quadratic-linear dose-response relationship for DSB misrejoining after exposure to low-LET radiation; i.e., there is a quadratic response at moderate doses which becomes linear as the dose becomes large, rather than vice versa. The linear region results because at very high doses almost all of the active DSB free ends misrejoin rather than eurejoin.

The temporal evolution of unrejoined and misrejoined DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs) produced by high doses (80-160 Gy) of X rays has been estimated using pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) (Löbrich et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 92, 12050-12054, 1995). We attempted to fit these data to three models. An RBM ("Revell binary misrejoining") model, based on the usual repair-misrepair and lethal-potentially lethal models, appears to be inconsistent with the data. The main discrepancies are the following: (1) The RBM model predicts that 90% of the misrejoined DSBs form by the time 75% of the DSBs have disappeared, while the data indicate that only 50% are formed by this time; and (2) the model predicts an increasing fraction of DSBs misrejoined at 160 Gy compared to 80 Gy, while the data support approximately equal fractions misrejoined. These discrepancies are alleviated in the Sax subset (SS) and Revell subset (RS) models. In the SS and RS models, two types (or subsets) of DSBs exist: those that are active in misrejoining and those that are not. In the SS model, active DSBs misrejoin by the breakage-and-reunion mechanism described by Sax; in the RS model, active DSBs either repair, or misrejoin according to the complete exchange misrejoining mechanism described by Revell. Both models are consistent with the data set considered.

Deaths in the RERF Life Span Study (LSS) sample have been determined for the years 1950-1985 and an analysis of cancer mortality with the revised DS86 doses has been described separately. In this report, we examine the relationship to dose of deaths from all diseases other than cancer. Although the evidence is still limited, there seems to be an excess risk from noncancer death at high doses (2 or 3 Gy and over). Statistically, a pure quadratic or a linear-threshold model [the estimated threshold dose is 1.4 Gy (0.6-2.8 Gy)] is found to fit better than a simple linear or linear-quadratic model. This increase in noncancer mortality is statistically demonstrable, generally, after 1965 and among the younger survivors (less than 40 at the time of the bombing), suggesting a sensitivity for this age group. For specific causes of death, an excess in relative risk at the high dose level, that is, 2 Gy or more, is seen in circulatory and digestive diseases. The relative risk is, however, much smaller than that for cancer. These findings, based as they are on death certificates, have their limitations. Most significant, perhaps, is the possible erroneous attribution of radiation-related cancer deaths to other causes. At present, the contribution such errors may make to the apparent increase in non-cancer deaths at the higher doses cannot be estimated as rigorously as is obviously desirable. However, even now, this increase does not appear to be fully explicable in terms of errors in classification. Further follow-up of mortality in this LSS cohort as well as disease revealed by the biennial physical examinations of the morbidity subsample (Adult Health Study) of the LSS cohort will be needed to confirm this suggestion of a radiation-related increase in mortality from causes other than cancer, and to determine whether it results in a demonstrable life shortening among the heavily exposed A-bomb survivors.

The variation in background radiation levels is an important source of information for estimating human risks associated with low-level exposure to ionizing radiation. Several studies conducted in the United States, correlating mortality rates for cancer with estimated background radiation levels, found an unexpected inverse relationship. Such results have been interpreted as suggesting that low levels of ionizing radiation may actually confer some benefit. An environmental factor strongly correlated with background radiation is altitude. Since there are important physiological adaptations associated with breathing thinner air, such changes may themselves influence risk. We therefore fit models that simultaneously incorporated altitude and background radiation as predictors of mortality. The negative correlations with background radiation seen for mortality from arteriosclerotic heart disease and cancers of the lung, the intestine, and the breast disappeared or became positive once altitude was included in the models. By contrast, the significant negative correlations with altitude persisted with adjustment for radiation. Interpretation of these results is problematic, but recent evidence implicating reactive forms of oxygen in carcinogenesis and atherosclerosis may be relevant. We conclude that the cancer correlational studies carried out in the United States using vital statistics data do not in themselves demonstrate a lack of carcinogenic effect of low radiation levels, and that reduced oxygen pressure of inspired air may be protective against certain causes of death.